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Ulrich Volz of the German Development Institute says the $250 billion the IMF has- counting the $100 billion Japan has contributed- may not be enough to prevent some countries in Eastern Europe and Asia or Latin America from defaulting. Especially because a lot of debt is coming due and has to be renewed. There may be some sovereign country defaults. Even China and India have a lot of debt coming due. India and China have external debt payments of $260 billion and $2.4 trillion respectively this year. According to ING Wholesale Banking emerging market governments and companies have to repay some $6.8 trillion of debt, bonds, loans and interest payments and trade finance, and this excludes any debt taken on for stimulus. Russia has $600 billion to renew this year. Latin American governments according to Harvard economist Hausmann need to rollover $250 billion in debt. The US and developed countries are soaking up a lot of funds, with the US eexpected to issue $2 trillion in government bonds, and the big developed countries placing another $1 trillion. So there will be severe competition for limited capital. Mr Volz suggests a Global Support Fund to which the developed countries would contribute to help emerging market countries....

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The Swedish government is seeing the 3 Baltic countries as part of its own economic region, and is treating them as part of the home region. It plans to do whatever it can to help them. The recapitalization effort for Swedish banks that made a large amount of loans to these countries, is similiar to the one that Sweden conducted for its banks in the 1990's, after a real estate bust. Swedish banks loans to the 3 Baltic countries amount to about 20% of Sweden's GDP. According to Danske Bank the loans could cost Sweden 2 to 6% of its GDP over several years. In 2009 the economies of the Baltic countries could contract 6 to 10%. Already Sweden has approved a rescue package of $173 billion, or 1.5 trillion kronor, to guarantee issues of Swedish bank debt, with some of it used to recapitalize banks with heavy losses. It contributed 1 billion euros to the 7.85 billion euro rescue package for Latvia made by the IMF, and traded $1.1 billion woth of Estonian kroons for Swedish kronor to help stabilize the Estonian currency. Swedbank and Nordea Bank are taking part in the recapitalization, while the SEB Bank of the Wallenberg family has so far managed on its own....

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DJT action to add another 50% tariff on China by Wednesday April 9, 2025 if it does not withdraw it's retaliatory tariff by Tuesday April 8.

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The main sticking point  in Brexit talks in December 2020 is the demand led by France to impose "lightning" unilateral tariffs on UK exports if the U.S. is seen as violating existing European Union social, environmental or state subsidy rules. UK is seeking a dispute resolution procedure and redress measures based on the actual damage or extent of the violation.

The other issue is fishing with the EU asking for a 10 year period of transition for fishing in British waters followed by only 18% of the gains to EU being paid back to Britain.

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What is the point of winning the World Cup says Steve Thompson, 2003 Rugby World Cup player for England, if you have to deal with the rubbish that comes after it. At 42 he can't remember his wife's name.  He has been diagnosed with dementia. It appears that all the knocks to the head taken in the game have affected his memory. This report in The Times looks at the reality and anguish of sports players who discover years later what happened during the time they played.

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The EU has agreed to allow a new Brexit extension, this time till January 31, 2020. According to the paper agreed on by member states the UK can leave on the first day of the month that a deal is ratified if a deal is ratified in parliament before the new extension date. The EU has also put in a declaration attached to the agreement that it will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. EU leaders did not have to meet to do this as it was done by a written procedure used by EU council president Donald Tusk.

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Mike Flynn, who briefly held the position of National Security Adviser before resigning, tells the FBI and Congressional officials that he is willing to be interviewed if he is given immunity for prosecution. Flynn, a former general, resigned after accepting that he misled White House officials about the phone conversations with the Russian ambassador. Also an issue and seen as improper is that Flynn was paid for speeches by Russia's state sponsored network RT just before becoming an adviser to the Trump campaign, according to documents given to a congressional oversight committee.

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In this article in the WP Hohmann points out a rule mentioned by Secretary Powell and Armitage, that "you brake it, you own it," a kind of Pottery Barn rule. When you have the majorities in both houses of Congress and the White House, then there is nobody to blame if you cannot produce results or things don't improve. This happened to Obama, Pelosi and Reid after 2008 when they lost both houses of Congress in the 2010 midterms. Now the Trump Republicans with Ryan and McConnell face the same situation.

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A government motion to delay Brexit for at least 3 months passed the House of Commons by 412 votes to 202. The large majority voting for an extension shows overwhelming support across all parties for more time to resolve the issue of European Union membership. Opposition Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for a second Brexit referendum, saying the call was for "a public vote, not as political point scoring but as a realistic option to break the deadlock." If there is no agreement by June 30, a longer extension of 12 months could follow. 

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Michael Spence, Professor emeritus at Stanford, and Nobel prize winner in economics in 2001, says the recession is global with growth globally approaching zero, and the economy in high speed descent. So he doesn't see recovery even if all the actions are appropriate and clear till 2011. And if not it will be much worse.

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German chancellor, Angela Merkel, appeals to members of the Christian Democratic Party to support the European project at a party convention in Leipzig on November 14, 2011. "We live in times of epic change. Our political compass has not changed. But the context is constantly changing," said Merkel. The 2 day convention used the motto: "For Europe. For Germany." Her message was that it will take years of hard work to fix the crisis and yet this has created an opportunity to put the European project on a sounder footing. Finance Minister Schauble put it succintly as he supported Merkel's appeal: "We now need to build the political union in Europe we never managed to build in the 90's." This comes as changes are taking place in Europe with new unity governments being formed in Greece by Mario Monti, a former EU commissioner, and in Greece by Papdemos, another EU official. And it comes as a head of Italy's central bank, Mario Draghi, who had pushed for stricter controls on spending by the Italian government, is now the head of the European Central Bank. Merkel also hit on the theme of a stricter financial union, and the need for courage to change the treaty underlying the European monetary union to allow strong, automatic sanctions for violations of the treaty. She also emphasized that the government had ruled out issuance of eurobonds that makes the EU as a whole responsible for the debt of individual countries. On that point she said: "Everywhere we look we find behaviour that cannot go on for long. Everywhere people are living as if there is no tomorrow."...

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The views being currently argued in meetings with the President about the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Vice President Biden's view: Completely change the goal and strategy. Scale down the military presence. Change the goal from protecting the people from the Taliban- and note that reports on the ground suggest that the people are indifferent and see the Americans and the Taliban as equally bad, with the Americans as foreigners far worse, see Doris Kearns others- to accelerated training of the Afghan forces to fight the Taliban. The focus of US interests would shift to Pakistan. Biden points to the disparity for every $1 spent in Pakistan $30 goes to Afghanistan, and the US real interests lie in Pakistan, not Afghanistan. The US would work with Pakistan to take out Al Quaeda in the border regions. And the proof is that this is working, as Al Quaeda figures have been taken out with Pakistan's help. Counterinsurgency would be replaced by counter terrorism so the US doesn't get bogged down in support of a failing government. The fraud in the recent elections and increasing isolation and loss of support for the Karzai government, supported by unofficial evidence from the ground, make this a serious option, especially as President Obama knows the Karzai government does not merit support and presents a losing proposition. The second view is that of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton- Ike Shelton of Missouri on the Armed Services Committee and Leslie Gelb (see links) share this view- who said in an interview on PBS, "Well Al Quaeda's no longer in Afghanistan. If Afghanistan were taken over by the Taliban, I can't tell you how fast Al Quaeda would be back in Afghanistan." The problem with this view is that the US has only a limited presence in a large mountainous country with the difficult terrain that Afghanistan has, and its not American ground troops that have done the damage in taking out Al Quaeda, its mostly high tech drones. WIth a wider engagement and expanded US ground troops in support of a failing government, that is alleged to have corrupt and narcoltics connections, the popular support would dwindle to the point that the extra troops would not be seen as protecting the population- because how do you protect a people who simply don't care or are suspicious of you? The solution requires some sort of settlement with the Taliban, which guarantees that it not serve as a haven for Al Quaeda. Progress with schools and modernization would have to be, at least in the short run, be given upon the basis of the U.S. coming to terms with what it can and cannot accomplish at an acceptable cost, and the idea of vital interests not lying in Afghanistan but Pakistan. The missing elements in this puzzle would help this strategy, bringing together key countries in South Asia, India and Pakistan, to assume greater joint responsibilities and abandon the entire postindependence. approach to relations. The third view is that presented by Bruce Reidel, who led the Obama administration's strategy review of Afghaistan and Pakistan earlier this year, and is based on pragmatic considerations and the unofficial information on the ground. Reidel puts it this way: "A counterinsurgency can only work if you have a credible and legitimate Afghan partner, and thats in doubt now." And he goes on to say "part of the reason you are seeing a hesitancy to jump deeper into the pool is that thay are looking to see if they can make lemonade out of the lemons we got from the Afghan election." For a complete change in policy and focus Obama would have to admit that he now has different information, and he is willing to admit to have misread the situation during the first 6 months and during the campaign. That is a test of leadership, being able to change after looking at the reality of the situation and digesting it fully. ...

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Views of Barrack Obama on economic poliies if he were President including raising the tax rate on capital gains anywhere between 20 and 25% with exemptions for the middle class, keeping the top tax rate at around 39% and keeping economic policy flexible to respond to what the economic situation is in the beginning of 2009 if it changes.

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Donald Trump's remarks at a Wilmington rally that caused a storm- "Hillary wants to abolish, essentially abolish the Second Amendment. By the way, and if she gets to pick her judges, nothing you can do folks. But the Second Amendment people, maybe there is, I don't know." The second Amendment in the U.S. Constitution gives people the right to bear arms. Some newspapers saw it as threat, especially considering the heated rhetoric in Trump's other remarks in his campaigning. Speaker Paul Ryan called it a joke gone bad, and that the Second Amendment should not be talked about in this way.

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Republican Senators Corker and Blount are confident that a solution can be devised for the sticking points on a deal between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Republicans consider the savings in the Reid plan from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq a "gimmick," but essentially the Reid and Boehner plans say analysts are similiar in the inital cuts in spending. The sticking point for Democrats is on the whole process of the debt ceiling extension having to be redone in early 2012. For Republicans the sticking point is in in tax increases which the Reid plan leaves out in the initial period for debt limit extension into 2013 when a new president takes office. House majority leader Boehner is facing opposition within his party and this restricts his leeway for striking a deal- the Boehner plan passed in the House by a vote of 218 to 210 on July 29, 2011, with 20 Republicans voting no. It was voted down in the Senate that same evening with a vote of 59 to 41, with 6 Republican senators joining all 53 Democratic senators. As it stands now, the weekend before the August 2 deadline, President Obama concedes that there is "rough agreement" about the size of the first round of spending cuts, and the "next step" to rein in borrowing. He went on to say that "if we need to put in place some kind of enforcement mechanism to hold us all accountable for making these reforms, I'll support that too, if it is done in a smart and balanced way." Its the design of this enforcement mechanism that is the main point in the remaining negotiation. The nature of the committee selected from both parties for the next phase of savings, its powers and the trigger in the sense of what it can ensure happening if no decisions are taken by both parties. ...

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What is 2 metres apart social distancing? This BBC video shows how. It is as if you are holding a broom. Thats how far you should be from someone else. In buses or transport no one in front or back of you. In conference rooms a similar distance. In parks outside 2 benches long distance. Be sure to see this video as it is critical in the fight against coronavirus. Most people don't get it that a large number of people have it and are asymptomatic, (its not like the regular flu where everyone has symptoms) yet they are carriers of the virus and spreaders of it. That is how the problem got worse in Europe and America in congested areas where restrictions were relaxed for too long. This is why the 2 metres rule (6 feet) is a safety rule, just like not crossing a red traffic light.

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The Bank of Italy, is conducting central bank examinations of Italian banks in July 2013. The loan portfolios of the 8 largest banks are being examined, and on-site inspections are being conducted for 20 other banks. This could lead to Italian banks having to sell assets or take other steps to improve capital positions. During the last central bank examinations in the fall of 2012 Italian banks were required to set aside 3.4 billion euros to protect against bad loan losses. Bad loan losses are increasing at Italian banks as businesses and individuals fall behind on payments with the worsening economy in 2013, and into 2014. Non-performing loans are up to 249 billion euros, or 14.2% of the banking industry's total loans, according to the Bank of Italy. This is up from 157 billion euros, or 8.9% of total loans in 2010.

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Efforts to de-escalate the situation in Catalonia by Arturo Mas, head of the previous government in Catalonia. He says that realistically Catalans need to get international support before taking any more steps, even if the pro-independence parties win in the regional election.

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What was established in Alaska meeting in Anchorage was the necessary rapport between two world powers. During the Bush, Obama, Biden administrations Russia was treated as a secondary economic power on Wall Street, with the focus shifted to China, which damaged relations with Russia which has always seen itself as a Northern European economic power. Some of the roots of the conflict go back to this period. In a nuclear world the size and historical relation in Northern Europe of Russia cannot be ignored purely on economic grounds about the size of it's economy in the way China could not be ignored in the 60's and 70's when it's economy was not what it is today. History and culture are not in Wall Street or Silicon Valley's understanding or grasp of international relations which go beyond economic and business considerations. On DJT and the first term, the survival of the US president- “When I came out of the plane and I said, ‘Good afternoon, dear neighbor. Good to see you in good health and to see you alive. I think that’s very neighborly and I think that’s some kind words that say to each other.” On Ukraine- “We have always considered and continue to consider the Ukrainian people our brothers and sisters. We share the same roots, and everything that is happening is a tragedy and a source of pain for us. Our country is interested in putting an end to this. But at the same time, we are convinced that for the settlement to be long-term, all the causes of the crisis must be eliminated." On DJT's assertion that if he was president there would have been no Ukraine war- Putin says "I can confirm that." “Today, we hear President Trump say that if he had been president, there would have been no war. I think that would have been the case. I can confirm that. Because, overall, President Trump and I had established a very good working relationship based on trust.”     ...

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The Economist cites estimates from the Bank of England showing Britain's national output peaking at 1.5 trillion pounds in 2007 and not likely to return to that level till 2015. It points to fears of a lost decade. Meanwhile debt is rising from 600 billion pounds in 2008 to 1.1 trillion in 2012, making reducing the debt to GDP ratio by 2017 even more difficult. Lower growth affects tax revenues even as social benefit costs increase. Part of the problem is that from 2009-2010 to 2011-2012 public sector net investment declined from 48.5 billion pounds to 28 billion pounds. The Economist suggests Chancellor Osborne take up an additional investment in infrastructure of 28 billion pounds, even borrowing 14 billion pounds in the bond markets if needed, as a prudent step to revive growth. Small improvements in rail, roads and bridges could make up for a lack of large projects. Other suggestions include expanding the "funding for lending" scheme with banks to get capital to small business, finding more savings in the National Health Service, and changing the way Britain taxes development land that remains undeveloped. Britain, now joins, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy, in the failure of austerity measures alone creating a return to economic growth and lower deficits. In 2013 improving competitiveness and boosting economic growth become critical following years of austerity measures....