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Raghuram Rajan interviewed by BW's Peter Coy. Rajan was prescient in questioning the Greenspan Fed's policies and the risks posed by the excessive leveraging in the financial system at the 2005 Jackson Hole conference. After the excessive monetary easing by the Bernanke Federal Reserve, Rajan questions the wisdom of keeping interest rates too low for too long. He joins John Taylor, George W. Bush presidential advisor, and Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon in making this point. Rajan was the chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006. He is the author of a 2010 book, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures still Threaten the World Economy. The fault lines he describes are rising inequality in the US and the dependence of the US on loans from China.

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Robert Lighthizer, U.S. Trade Representative, makes a passionate plea for the dignity of work in America, the founding principle for the society of opportunity that America has been and the reason it was settled by immigrants from Europe over 200 years. He points out that trade policy is not about geopolitics or about efficiency as others perceive, it is about what kind of society we want to live in. Is it about a society of opportunity? This is the foundation on which this American continent was settled by settlers from Britain and Europe, and the basis of the growth over two hundred years till the last four decades. From 2000 and China's entry into the World Trade Organization under president Clinton to 2016 the U.S. manufacturing base has shrunk with the loss of five million jobs, two million jobs lost to China in the period 1999-2011 alone. And 350,000 automobile manufacturing jobs to Mexico since 1994, one third of all U.S. automobile jobs. Without the initiative and hard work of Mr. Lighthizer both American workers and Mexican workers would be stuck in low paying jobs. The USMCA he negotiated changed all that by giving Mexican workers fair wages and American workers and manufacturing the opportunity for revival.  This view was also expressed by Intel founder Andy Grove, a founder of one of the first pioneer companies in Silicon Valley. Grove asked the question after seeing the outsourcing of production out of America and the condition of the American worker- he said for him it was about what kind of society he wanted to live in. It was all about the dignity of the American worker long ignored by economists who live in a world of theory and the elite that has lived for so long apart from the places where the fabric of American workers and working life was torn apart. It was a question that touched Andy Grove's heart just as it does for Robert Lighthizer and others who are fighting to make America a society of opportunity for the American worker and opportunity for the American people, for dignity in America. It also charts a new course for the French worker, the British worker, the Indian worker, as other countries learn from the American experience. We have covered Grove and Lighthizer from the early days of their leadership and wise reminders to the people of what America is and stands for. Lighthizer points out one huge error that makes the thinking of these economists and elite that have not listened for so long, more than a bit crazy, reckless and callous. He says there about half of 250 million adults who lack a college diploma in America. Historically manufacturing has provided stable well paying employment. Even if with investment in education they were taught to write software code, there aren't enough jobs for them. The combined total of jobs at Apple Google, Facebook and Netflix is 300,000 jobs. Never has so much been at stake for so many and defended by so few. ...

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Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms gets words of praise for her short 4 minute but effective speech finding just the right words to protesters on the night of May 29. By 9.30 pm the protests became violent.  She is a first term Democrat mayor and had so much at stake in keeping the city of Martin Luther King peaceful that night. She went up to police headquarters and setup a press conference. Everything had to be done right. So she just said it the way she read the situation, her gut sense combined with self discipline and the long view- and said it directly addressing the issues head on- alway keeping the goal in mind of restoring peaceful protest in the spirit of the black leader in Atlanta of a generation ago alive for future generations.  Her directness and poise showed- "You're not going to outconcern me and outcare about where we are in America. I wear this each and every day. I pray over my children each and every day." Washington D.C Mayor, Muriel Bowser, also a first term Democratic mayor, showed poise and directness, a sense of calm amid the storm, as she talked to reporters at a press conference. Her situation being critical as this was in the nation's capital city, only blocks away from the White House. She had a plaza in the city painted yellow and named for black people facing daily struggles in their lives to live their aspirations in society, on June 4. A quiet yet lasting statement. ...

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Prodigous investments in AI data centers is crowding out investment in essential infrastructure that would cut the cost of living in the US. Such as investment in pharmaceuticals in the US, investment in automobiles and rare earth processing, in housing and schools would reduce cost of living by bringing down prices and provide huge human returns for every dollar spent in addition to larger profits over a long period. Shown here is the AI data center for Microsoft in Atlanta. Microsoft has invested $34 billion the first fiscal quarter of 2025 alone, with similar investments by Amazon, Tesla, Google, and others for $400 billion capital allocation in 2026. Investments are also being crowded out in the replacing of the aging infrastructure of the US  of roads, rail, subways systems, transport systems, bridges, airports and ports. Some of these investments such as in ports and logistics are needed to make America a manufacturing and exporting nation. Economists loved to talk about crowding out of investment by the private sector when the government spending was significantly higher as during and after World War II. Today there is little talk about the massive misallocation of capital in the US economy. Where public infrastructure is ravaged by time and mismanagement as in New York political trends are calling for free public transport  and supported grocery stores in NYC, when the root cause the overall picture of the Nation's spending in rebuilding America is ignored or unaddressed, which would get to the root cause of the cost of living and quality of life issues that concern all the people of this Nation. ...

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The crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 in the global economy saw huge stimulus programs, resposible economic management, and rapid recovery by the end of 2009 in developing countries. China put in place a large stimulus program, and in most developing countries, India, Vietnam, Brazil and other countries efforts were made to strengthen the safety net for the poor and to introduce stimulus for creating jobs. India and Indonesis saw the return of ruling party governments and in Brazil Lula da Silva had favorability ratings above 60%. So contrary to earlier fears in late 2008 their was both asense of political stability and asense of confidence in the developing countries. Capital is flowing into these countries and the IIF says that net private capital inflows to developing countries will double in 2010 to $672 billion. Russia which saw capital outflows of $50 billion in the first 9 months saw $20 billon of capital inflows in the fourth quarter of 2009. Half of the 140 million laborers working in Chinese cities returned home in early 2009, a fifth stayed there and another fifth counld not find work when they returned to the cities. But as the stimulus in China kicked in, and infrastructure development surged, (see link to the rail infrastructure spending) by the middle of 2009 jobless ness among rural migrant workers went down to less than 3%. This shows in the Pew Global Attitudes Project wth more than 40% of respondents in India, China and Indonesia saying that they were satisfied with their lives, in China this was 87%. In France, Japan and Britain the share is below 30%. In America 49% of those in the Pew pollingfelt that America should mind its own business internationally, 30 points higher than in 1964. When asked "Are you better off in free markets?" the respondents share fell in 2009 in Germany by 4 points, in Spain by 10 points. Shares rose in India and China, and stayed flat in Brazil and Turkey, so there is no backlash against free markets in developing countries....

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Refreshing view of children playing in Spain- in a park in Seville, children skating outside the Ventas building in Madrid, a girl playing at a fountain outside the Guggenheim museum in Bilbao. For a long time children were not allowed outside. Deaths drop below 300 in Spain. Growth of infected cases decreases from 38% on March 14, 2020 to 3% in recent weeks and 0.8% April 25 at about 1700 cases. Spain was the worst hit country with 23,000 deaths along with Italy and France.

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Apple's new privacy rules are reducing the extensive tracking of internet users that took place in an unregulated industry for the last decade. Apple has introduced a long overdue privacy change that restricts how users can be tracked on apps such as Facebook, Instagram and other apps. Users are now asked if they want to be tracked and can opt out. US users opt to allow tracking only 16% of the time they see the Apple privacy prompt. This will be one more needed step to protect the privacy of users that had suffered  in the last 10 years from rampant and unrestricted tracking of users.

 

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This story in The Guardian looks at volunteer schools in Kashmir, India, as school children take classes in open meadows. Volunteer teachers are working to keep Kashmiri children in open air makeshift community classes in fields, pine forests and orchards,  so that some form of continuity in schooling can be maintained during the coronavirus. One volunteer teacher works with 100 children, And children have to cross rising rivers over wooden bridges in the rainy season, coming over long distances. Many families do not own a smartphone which cost Rs. 10,000 to %s. 15,000 to take internet classes. The government offers video classes on television and radio classes for older children in India. 

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The succumbing ethical roles of Ivy League graduates is the topic of this article in the WSJ. The author says that deprived of good role models at Ivy League universities they are not as good material to become good leaders themselves than students of less well known schools and state universities. Eisenhower and Truman some of the country's most respected presidents in the 1940's and 1950's came from ordinary schools and struggled through jobs and long hours to provide the leadership the country required at the time. During the pandemic the country needs this kind of basics of leadership and character in its young people.

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President Trump cancels a summit meeting with the Taliban and Afghan leaders at Camp David planned for this week as a step forward in ongoing peace talks to end the war in Afghanistan. The Taliban attacks in Kabul that killed an American soldier was the reason given for cancelling the meeting. President Trump has as one of his goals ending the war in Afghanistan that has tied up American and allied resources over two decades. The long drawn out conflict has little support in the U.S. particularly because of domestic priorities including infrastructure and the economy, and the lack of any national interests for the U.S. in foreign wars.

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Peggy Noonan, former press spokesperson for president Reagan, says what the president does in private is as important as what happens in public- that the tweets by president Trump done in private have not helped in the first 100 days. She says attacks on the Freedom Caucus deepened divisions in the Republican party. The failure to shake German chancellor Merkel's hand was not a proper diplomatic move and shows lack of public respect for Germany with which America shares a common history. Her sense is that what counts today is a constructive mentality and keeping perspective for the long run, and in this respect the first 100 days are not encouraging, she says.

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How do schools reopen during the pandemic. This report shows how schools and students struggle with reopening. The first part of the report looks at how one family in Wisconsin is coping with 3 children  2, 4 and 11 years old, from kindergarten to middle school. Only the middle school child is going back to school. Both parents work from home, have struggled to cope with kids at home. Lack of enough computer equipment restricts kids learning long distance, and concentration is also an issue. 

The rest of the report covers how schools are reopening in cities- Bangkok, Jerusalem, Tunis, Stockholm, Dortmund, Mumbai, Rio de Janeiro.

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President Biden gives a rousing speech to the unions and the AFL-CIO, reminiscent of Lincoln's speeches as he debated Stephen Douglas in the struggle for the emancipation in the 1850's.

"Wall Street did'nt build this country, the middle class built this country. And the unions built the middle class. I'm not joking, without unions there would be no middle class. That's a fact."

Recalling the long lines for food during the pandemic-

"Ordinary people waiting in line for an hour for a box of food. And the policies in the past created more billionaires in the past than never before in our history." 

"Laying a strong foundation for the future of this country is more than having strong roads and bridges. It is about making sure, that here in America, folks who work hard can live their lives with dignity and respect."

 

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Risks to stable long term growth of too much liquidity in the global financial system.

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Oil traders are pricing in much higher oil prices- with $150 not being inconceivable- because of Mideast unrest. They see this unrest playing out over a long period of time, and do not see this changing even if the Libyan situation returns to normal tomorrow. Saudi Arabia will need to price oil at $85-90 a barrel just to meet the economic demands for a growing population, says Rachel Ziemba, analyst at Roubini Global Economics. Saudi King Abdullah recently promised $150 billion in new housing, higher wages and other benefits to prevent protests. The fiscal pressures are growing in these countries. A $15-$20 premium for unrest is assigned by Paramount Options, a trader at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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The World Bank's Jim Yong Kim leads an effort to bring infrastructure development to war torn regions, including $1 billion in investment in the war torn Democratic Republic of the Congo. This would help build hydroelectric power plants, roads and agricultural infrastructure, especially along the border with Uganda and Rwanda. This is where Kim sees the World Bank making the greatest difference. Kim is unique because he brings a background in anthropology and medicine, compared to the background in politics and finance of previous World Bank presidents. He increased committments to sub-Saharan Africa to about $14 billion in the current fiscal year ending June 2013, from $12.2 billion in 2012. This is his first year at the World Bank.

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The Federal Reserve Open Market Committe voted 7 to 3 to carry out "Operation Twist." This does not involve printing new money as was done for the $600 billion QE II Fed program. This time the Fed will shift its holdings to hold fewer short-term Treasury bills and notes and increase holdings of Treasury securities with longer maturities. The overall impact would be to increase the average maturity of its Treasury securities portfolo to 8 years from the current 6 years. The idea is to put pressure to reduce long tem rates. The Fed says the impact on short term rates is expected to be small because of its conditional pledge made in August 2011 to hold short term rates near zero until mid-2013. The impact of the Fed's move is likely to be modest considering the fact that the average rate on 30 year fixed rate mortgages is already low. It is at 4.09%, according to the latest Freddie Mac survey.

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The small rate hike of 0.25% by China's central bank, as the first step in a long process of curbing inflating and reducing bank lending. The preference for better quality growth around 8%. Inflation is rising and was up 3.6% in september 2010. The rate hike increases what savers get from their deposits from 2.25% to 2.5%, to help deal with inflation, a small step but it appears that this is part of a long term process.

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Financial firms in the U.S. S&P 500 are expected to increase 4th quarter 2013 profits over prior year by 24%, according to FactSet. Increase in long term interest rates increases the spread between short term rates that banks borrow at and the long term rates at which banks lend, easing the pressures on bank's net interest margin that were present as the Fed lowered rates. Prospects of recovery and increased lending improves the prospects for banks in 2014.

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David Brooks of the NYT says the Republican party is failing when it embraces Trump's version of populism with its racial division, tax plan that favors Republican donors and ignores fiscal conservative concern over deficits that affect future generations, supporting the election of Moore in Alabama, the constant Twitter comments that show prejudice. He says this will have destructive effects that could last an entire generation. This isn't the Republican party he has known for so long, says Brooks. The time is passed says Brooks when sensible republicans could go along in the middle by not agreeing with Trump, yet avoiding the task of opposing the elements of Trump policies that conflict with America's long held ideals shared by both parties. He calls its a corrupt deal that Republican party leaders in the Senate and Congress have agreed to make with Trump thinking that somehow this will all work out for them even if it doesn't for the party. Selling one's soul is somehow not an option that people would take in their right mid, so he wonders aloud what is happening in the party- and calls it a rot besetting the party of Lincoln, TR and Eisenhower that won't get it to any good place.   ...

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The DJT Putin talks in Alaska lead to both sides agreeing that there would be another meeting and the goal would not be a ceasefire but an effort to reach a peace settlement. The media NYT, WSJ, Washington Post and others present it as a failure to reach a ceasefire. Yet ceasefires can be broken and with a better understanding and mutual respect after personal discussions, US and Russian leaders can help setup a lasting peace. Principal stumbling blocks of Ukraine after a long bruising fight is wary and skeptical of Russian intentions and Russia after suffering huge losses seeks to present its side and make some gains. Also emerging from the talks is abetter understanding of what the Russian side wants and is willing to accept. Putin accepts the need for European troops in Ukraine to ensure a lasting peace. The US does not want to get involved in a European war and the European peacekeeping force would have US military support but no US troops on the ground, something the Russian side is willing to accept. ...

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The 800 foot Chinese ocean carrier Zhen Hua 29 sails into Kingston, Jamaica, from Shanghai on the long route with 5 cranes in epic 3 months voyage through the Indian Ocean around Mozambique- the last of the globalization voyages. As globalization dims these are the last of these voyages. US policy is for its control of the Panama Canal, the Monroe Doctrine in the western hemisphere, pushing out a globalization that hurt American industry and jobs in the USA. China continues on with its surplus capacity make for export policy, the US wants out from these imports, and the EU is wary of imports dependence.  Gemany's Foreign ministry under Wadephul is forming a commission to investigate German dependence on China made products. This is the last of the globalization that started with Clinton, and went on with Bush and Obama, wrecking huge parts of the American industrial base. Cranes- no longer made in the USA, one by one, including ships- no longer made in the USA. The great shipyards of Britain and the US languishing in disrepair! ...

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Compared to the situation in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis with the excess supply of labor, China in 2012 faces an excess in demand for labor. In 2009 about 20% of migrant workers were unemployed when the crisis hit, and wages dropped 10% for migrant workers, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. The situation three years later is one of tight labor markets and higer wages. A large stimulus in not only not needed today in the way it was in 2008-2009 as a way to maintain social stability, it would reduce the benefits of the anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012, by putting more pressure on wages and prices. Manufacturing sector wages increased by 20.1% in 2011, according to China's statistics bureau. This may be why the Chinese government is taking measured steps to avoid creating more bad loans through indiscriminate lending, and being more selective in accelerating development projects in the pipeline. According to Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Officer China plans to have about 7% growth. This shift in approach would help China refocus on growth strategies recommended in the recent Development Reform Commission and World Bank Report on China....

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Daniel Henninger says in the WSJ that the debt ceiling will be raised, and Republicans should not be pitting program against program. He says the narrative though should be framed around the trillions being spent by the Biden administration on climate change action, US manufacturing and technology in chips, with interest on debt at over $400 billion a year. Yet this does not take into account that for two decades there has been an overcrowding of US government initiated capital investment for essential needs by massive Tech industry misallocation of funds even as productivity of this capital invested by tech was dropping, with much wasted capital. Today because these essential needs in infrastructure and for manufacturing and technology were starved for so long of capital the productivity of capital in these areas is high and will have ripple effects to help rebuild America.

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Years of Tory cuts and austerity spending left the UK unprepared for the pandemic, says this editorial in The Guardian. The running down of the public sector was a policy choice says The Guardian. In the decade before Covid the Tories cut public spending as a proportion of the GDP from 46% to 39% leaving Britain exposed during the pandemic. Jeremy Hunt continues in a long line of Tory chancellors who are impervious to comprehension of the fall in incomes of ordinary households, the working nurses and teachers who turn to food banks. Hunt even talks about another 100 billion pounds of cuts over the next 2 years. And  turning Britain into a Silicon Valley, when Silicon and Tech is failing in the US, and when the US Justice Department is seeking the breakup of Big Tech with support from Republican Bill Barr.