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Swiss dairy farmers cutting cheese production by 5-10% to tackle temporary US tariff rate of 39%.  Gruyere and Emmentaler cheese to US make up 13% of Swiss cheese exports. Swiss dairy farmers are looking for markets in Asia and waiting for trade negotiations to bring tariffs down so that they can bounce back. The cow is sacred in Swiss Alpine country because of its role in cheese and mil chocolate production for overseas markets. Switzerland's cheese exports are $830 million in 2024 compared to about $7 billion for Germany, $6 billion for Netherlands, $5 billion for Italy and $4 billion for France, and $2.5 billion for the US. Overall Switzerland is a small exporter for a country the size of Virginia. Much of the extra milk production from a bumper harvest in 2025 can be converted into baby milk powder  and exported to China and India. In trade negotiations the Swiss became complacent even condescending and took the US market for granted. This will now change as the Swiss now have time for some soul searching on how best to negotiate a deal that respects the interests of both nations. ...

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German Foreign Ministry is to take up question of dependence on China in 2026, and a commission will look into it. Yet this comes 2, 3 or 4 years too late. Germany is scrambling to develop it's foreign policy. German Defense officials in the military say they no longer have 24 contact with their US counterparts. Germany is pulling Britain and France with it to counter any signs of weakness in Europe, so that the three countries can act as a counter weight to the US, and to Russia allied with China. Merz is now called the foreign policy chancellor. So much has changed from the Merkel days which are years that were wasted in infrastructure, digital, foreign policy, and migration policies that make sense for people's ease of living. Germans may have underestimated Merz in the way they overestimated Merkel, lacking the clear view of what the future requires from Germany in a world filled with China, India, Brazil and the other nations of Europe, and the US, a world which requires confidence and investment. ...

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One result of the rapprochement of the US and Russia is that Russia has now   agreed to Ukraine joining the European Union. This is part of the Ukraine/EU Peace Plan put forward by Ukraine, with Ukraine calling for aset date to join the EU. Ukraine has proposed a demilitarized zone in the eastern region that would put eastern Donetsk in the demilitarized zone including also parts of Russian occupied eastern Ukraine. This is a major step in the right direction so that the Ukraine issue can be settled. Germany meantime is leading the effort to build its arms industry to counter Russia and Germany, France, Britain are joining together to counter Russia as the US pulls back under the DJT administration to asserting itself in the Western Hemisphere with the Monroe Doctrine to fight the drug trafficking gangs in Venezuela and Mexico and pother parts of the western hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine was possible in 1823 till 1960 with the full support of Britain. It is now possible with the cooperation of Russia as Russia is accepted as a dominant power in Northern Europe, a goal set by Russia under Putin.  ...

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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Galston of the Brookings Institution says globalization has hurt workers in manufacturing with job losses and declining incomes. It has produced outcomes that have favored some industries such as tech, and not others such as automobiles which in the past helped create the broad middle class by offering good paying jobs to people with less than a college education. Immigration has created an issue that political leaders outside of the main parties have appealed to in France, the U.S. and Britain. The result is a polarization in the voters that has rarely been seen to this extent before. The middle class in the period from the 1950's to the 1980's is not the middle class that we see today in Europe and the U.S. The 2008 financial crisis added to the problems with the slow and uncertain recovery for some groups such as white men, the less educated, students, and people on minimum wage. 

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German chancellor Merkel and France's president Hollande meet in Notre-Dame de Reims cathderal for a service that commemorates the 50th anniversary of a mass held at Reims cathedral. That Mass was held at Reims in May 1962 with the hope for a lasting reconciliation between Germany and France in a region affected by recurring wars, and was attended by Konrad Adenauer and Charles de Gaulle. The service in July 2012 brings together two leaders after tense discussions at eurozone summit meetings on the future of the eurozone and austerity measures. It is also a reminder of the deeper ties that bring the two countries together after a century of conflict, and the resilience in the face of difficulties shown by a previous generation of leaders in building these ties. It needs to be remembered that it was German chancellor Kohl, Angela Merkel's mentor, one of the postwar leaders who promoted European unity during the period of German reunificaton, who speeded up the agenda for the creating the eurozone and euro currency without the necessary underpinnings of deposit insurance and a eurozone financial regulator with powers to examine the books of European banks and exercize financial supervision. ...

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A surprise move that creates turmoil in financial markets and damages the reputation of the SNB as it failed to provide any communication to markets whatsoever. The SNB removed a cap on the Swiss Franc of 1.20 euros in a sudden move in Jan. 2015, seeing that its policy was increasingly untenable as the ECB prepared for massive monetary easing.

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European Union leaders including European Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, ECB president Mario Draghi, and Eurogroup finance ministers head, Jean-Claude Juncker, draw up a 10 year road map for "a genuine economic and monetary union." The prime ministers of Italy, France and Spain push jointly for deposit insurance to cover European bank deposits, Europe wide banking supervision, and bailout funds to directly purchase sovereign debt of Italy and Spain without conditions. This takes place June 22-27, 2012, with the EU leaders increasing pressure on Germany for the first time in concerted fashion. Ms. Merkel and her coalition partners the Free Democrats see this as an effort at mutualizing debt. Merkel says Europe will not have total sharing of debt "as long as I live," in her talks with Free Democrats.

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Raphael Varane of France announces his retirement from soccer at 29 years of age, saying that- "right now we have overloaded schedules, and I feel that I am suffocating, that the player is gobbling up the man." Real Madrid's Courtois, and other players from Manchester City, Manchester United, feel the same way. FIFPRO world players' union general secretary, Baer Hoffman, says the volume of games today is putting too much pressure on the physical and mental well being of players. No one is thinking of us players says one player. Australian coaching mentor Royle, says it is the dehumanization of human endeavor. Players and coaches are stepping away and Jonathan Harding in the DW.com asks if the price they are asked to pay is too high. Is it time for the football league managers to listen.

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Mr. Macron told television viewers of a national debate with Le Pen that "she wants to take France out of the European Union, she just doesn't say it." The debate showed the clear differences between Macron and Le Pen on the European Union, on Russia and the invasion of Ukraine, on Le Pen's ties with Russia that Macron noted  during the debate. Le Pen brought up the raising of the pension age to 65 which Macron says would be done very gradually over 10 years, and Macron responded by saying this was to be able to increase pension payments and increase investments in the economy.

A snap poll by polling firm Elabe showed that for viewers of the debate the candidate they found most convincing was Macron at 59% and Le Pen at 39%.

 

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For someone in his 100th year and having conducted the opening to China Mr Kissinger deserves to be heard. He brings a perspective from the Austrian German school of thinking which adds to other perspectives of where the world is and the way forward. His insights are shaped by the Austrian Metternich and Briton Casterleigh in his book A World Restored (1957) and the experience gained from their shaping a peace that lasted from about 1815 to 1914. He sees China but completely misses the future and potential of India and Indonesia that together make up the largest population and twin nations in the world. India changes everything as seen from its potential to bring peace to Ukraine and bring Russia- and even China with its shared heritage of Buddhism- into the world shaped by the Anglo-Saxons (US and Britain, France) and Germany.

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Economy Minister Habeck says- "Our energy system will be structured differently: we will have 80% renewable energies by 2030."  Germany will close its last 3 nuclear plants this week. Germany is shutting down all nuclear energy when other countries are increasing reliance on nuclear energy. Westinghouse is building Poland's first nuclear plant. Britain, France and Finland are increasing nuclear energy with its very low carbon emissions. Biden administration in the US is backing the building of a new generation of smaller nuclear reactors. Mr. Habeck the Economy minister says for the short term Germany has its natural gas storage tanks half full with the winter heating season over. New LNG terminals and imports help replace Russian supplies. In the long term Germany is way ahead in renewable energy than other countries and will craft its own solution in its own way.

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Li Yuan looks at the poor job prospects in China for young people over the age of 35 years whose work can be done by new university graduates at lower pay. Jobs in government are given before a person reaches 35 years. Employees laid off during the pandemic have difficulty finding work. This affects marraige prospects and starting a family, or buying a home. There is also hidden discrimination for job seekers over age 35. For women there are questions from employers about if and when they will have children.

Hidden discrimination takes place in the workplace in France where the protests against raising the pension age are fueled in addition to other reasons about its timing after the pandemic and inflation, by people over 40 years who cannot find jobs, with the burden falling harder on women. 

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Le Monde looks at falling living standards across the UK. It looks at Essex and Brentwood and other towns outside the metro region of London. The 2009 financial crisis caused by banks was followed in four blows of Cameron's decade of austerity and of not investing in Britain, the upheavals of Brexit, the once in a century pandemic, and now inflation, causing a depressing sight of all lower and middle social classes struggling to make a living. 

Since 2007 real wages in UK have fallen by 3.5%. Between 1970 and 2008 wages grew by 33% every 10 years.

The poorest 10% in Britain have 22% lower purchasing power than the poorest 10% in France, says Torsten Bell of Resolution Foundation, author of report "Stagnation Nation."

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Germany which handled the first wave of the coronavirus better than France or Spain with better testing and contact tracing is now facing the second wave. Following the reopening Germany went back to normal with fewer restrictions. Some Germans ignored restrictions and Germans travelled to other countries. German students in Croatia in summer tourism are reported to be part of the 21 million tourists in the country in summer that failed to follow any restrictions. The result is that Germans now fear the second wave is beginning to hit Germany.

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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.

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British recognition for the National Coalition in Syria follows recognition by Turkey, the Gulf Cooperation Council and France.

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Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

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In remarks published in English on the Bundesbank website, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president and member of the ECB governing council said: "The ECB should be aware of its independence. This also requires it to respect, and not to overstep its own mandate." This is seen as a pushback by the Bundesbank to ECB president Draghi's comments on July 23, 2012, about doing all that is necessary to keep the eurozone together. Weidmann referring to the situation in France recollecting his days as a student in France in 1987, said there were "two different worldviews colliding." And that this situation prevailed in all political debates right up to the present day. He says about deflationary tendencies -"If these countries go through adjustment processes which result in decreases in wages and prices, then this constitutes one-off shifts in the wage and price structure and not deflation."

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Efforts to increase electricity costs, healthcare costs, to rein in the deficit from 6% to 5% come at the wrong time in France from the Barnier government which faces a no confidence vote and collapse in Dec. 2024. Macron appears to have made some bad choices.

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Household debt levels declined in the U.S. to 108% in 2014 for ratio of total debt to disposable income, returning to levels in 2003, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. The level reached a high of 130% for the U.S. in 2007. The reached a level exceeding 150% in Canada for 2014, which combined with decline in oil revenues with lower oil prices puts additional stress on the Canadian economy. In Japan the level has declined to 125% in 2014. France is close to the U.S. level, up significantly since 2003. Germany's ratio declined significantly to about 90% in 2014. In the U.S. consumer credit levels were up 2.3% in the 3rd quarter as credit for consumer purchases such as autos and appliances increased. Credit for home mortgages increased only slightly by 0.1%, as demand for new homes remained sluggish and banks imposed stricter standards following the mortgage crisis. U.S. households continued to pay down mortgage and credit card debt.

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President Macron of France tests positive for coronavirus on the morning of Dec. 17. He will now self isolate for 7 days. Leaders who he has met recently are the prime ministers of Spain Pedro Sanchez and Portugal Antonio Costa. He was seen embracing Antonio Costa. Mr. Macron was part of the tough negotiations for the European trillion dollar stimulus, for a recent all night EU negotiation, and involved in Brexit talks. He met with Charles Michel of the European Council and Ursula Leyen, head of the European Union. All or most of these leaders will now have to self isolate. Mr. Macron wore a mask during the entire period and was careful not to shake hands. 

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This report in FR24 cites the director of research at France's National Institute of Health and Medical Research, Inserm, about the damaging effects of an insecticide used in the French West Indies. The result is that there are violent protests against the vaccine mandate being implemented in the French West Indies. 

The FR24 report says that about a third of the marine coastline, and a third of agricultural land and land for breeding, in the West Indies islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique is polluted by the insecticide chlordecone. The insecticide was first used in banana plantations in the French West Indies against banana insects. The insecticide has now contaminated the soil and groundwater. 

 

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France and Germany support the EU coronavirus rescue package of 750 billion euros with 500 billion euros in grants to struggling businesses. Four countries- Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Netherlands- which supported the austerity policies that hurt working families in Europe for a decade after the financial crisis of 2009, do not support grants and instead call for loans to be made. This time Germany has swung over to the French side and southern European countries such as Italy and Spain that suffered badly from the virus. Without solidarity in such a situation the EU concept becomes meaningless and Merkel says these countries that oppose common borrowing do not understand the gravity of the crisis facing Europe's economies after the virus. 

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Scott Anderson of the NYT provides an indepth look at the Arab World and its fragmentation through the eyes of five people from each part of the Arab world- Egyptian, Kurd, Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian. He says the countries that fell apart are precisely the ones that were formed by the British and the French, and Italy, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire  using divide and rule policies- Britain in Iraq, France in Syria, and Italy in Libya- without much thought given to setting up viable nation states. This is why Iraq has a Sunni-Shia divide, Syria has similar divisions, and Libya with a largely tribal based structure, never really held together after the colonial powers left, and were held together only by strong dictators. Today's problems trace back to these historical events. This is complicated by the largely young demographic and restlessness of the people for change coupled with problems of underdevelopment in education, tribal loyalties, religious loyalties, and lack of political and social structures that could keep the countries together as change and transition to democratic processes took place. The role of the military further complicated matters in Egypt. Even Iran experienced these divisions because of the intervention of the great powers including Russia in Iran since 1900, leading to swings between liberal governments, foreign power supported governments, and a swing back to religious leadership as at present. This is one view of the region, others are presented by Ramadan (Oxford),  Bernard Lewis (Princeton), and leaders in Qatar and Emirates, other experts, some of whom point to the failure in leadership and the elites to find solutions to the problems of underdevelopment, in education, health, infrastructure, and aspirations for a voice in their governance. As the same divisions left by colonial powers affected Asia- in India, China, and Korea, but a larger vision of progress prevailed through crises and difficulties.        ...