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British recognition for the National Coalition in Syria follows recognition by Turkey, the Gulf Cooperation Council and France.

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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.

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Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

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In remarks published in English on the Bundesbank website, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president and member of the ECB governing council said: "The ECB should be aware of its independence. This also requires it to respect, and not to overstep its own mandate." This is seen as a pushback by the Bundesbank to ECB president Draghi's comments on July 23, 2012, about doing all that is necessary to keep the eurozone together. Weidmann referring to the situation in France recollecting his days as a student in France in 1987, said there were "two different worldviews colliding." And that this situation prevailed in all political debates right up to the present day. He says about deflationary tendencies -"If these countries go through adjustment processes which result in decreases in wages and prices, then this constitutes one-off shifts in the wage and price structure and not deflation."

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US president DJT meets with Rutte of the Netherlands Jan 21, 2026. He says he has come up with a framework for US acquisition of Greenland, rights title, and ownership of the island for US security and world security. He called for immediate negotiations with the goal of US acquisition of the island of Greenland.  The political situation is evolving in this way. Germany is key in the developments for the US to acquire Greenland. Britain is standing it out with the Nordic countries as Starmer has shifted to the side of Sweden and Denmark with little to gain for the Labor government which is facing local elections and popularity of Reform UK Party. In this situation Italy and Germany have taken a posture of not making any statements. Germany facing Russian intervention in Ukrain on the east needs the US for joint security at a critical juncture when Russia and the US have agreed to respect each others area of influence. Italy is run by a northern Italy party leaning to the anti-immigration stance taken by DJT in the US. It makes little difference to Netherlands, Germany/Austria/Switzerland and Italy who controls Greenland and in the context of Russian advances and nuclear weapons technology would prefer US move to acquire Greenland and rapidly build up defenses in Greenland with large investments. To not disturb the alliance's northern countries (Britain and Nordics) Germany has taken a back seat to the rhetoric yet will be in the deciding role because of its stable government, support from all parts of the political spectrum for US control of Greenland except for the coalition junior partner the SPD. The SPD Defense Minister Pistorius may form parts of the SPD that see US owning the island as positive in the bolstering of its defense capabilities with th $1 trillion outlay in the budgeted investments. Starmer may have misread DJT and US support as the US president can make a very good case for US owning Greenland and getting Denmark to accept the offer of Harry Truman of $100 million made in 1947, updated for what that sum is today which is $1.5 billion. As DJT pointed out Macron has no longevity for his government in France, and cannot speak for that country. As Treasury Secretary Bessent who along with Rubio is part of the team that will work with the president says, Denmark is irrelevant to the issues US faces for US and world security. It is a small country, Denmark, with a population of 6 million most of it in the area near Copenhagen. Houston or Dallas has a much larger population. For Denmark to decide on momentous issues of US security for the entire eastern seaboard or world security, with ownership essential for the US,  when climate has made the Arctic important, is something the US does not accept.   ...

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Efforts to increase electricity costs, healthcare costs, to rein in the deficit from 6% to 5% come at the wrong time in France from the Barnier government which faces a no confidence vote and collapse in Dec. 2024. Macron appears to have made some bad choices.

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Household debt levels declined in the U.S. to 108% in 2014 for ratio of total debt to disposable income, returning to levels in 2003, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. The level reached a high of 130% for the U.S. in 2007. The reached a level exceeding 150% in Canada for 2014, which combined with decline in oil revenues with lower oil prices puts additional stress on the Canadian economy. In Japan the level has declined to 125% in 2014. France is close to the U.S. level, up significantly since 2003. Germany's ratio declined significantly to about 90% in 2014. In the U.S. consumer credit levels were up 2.3% in the 3rd quarter as credit for consumer purchases such as autos and appliances increased. Credit for home mortgages increased only slightly by 0.1%, as demand for new homes remained sluggish and banks imposed stricter standards following the mortgage crisis. U.S. households continued to pay down mortgage and credit card debt.

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President Macron of France tests positive for coronavirus on the morning of Dec. 17. He will now self isolate for 7 days. Leaders who he has met recently are the prime ministers of Spain Pedro Sanchez and Portugal Antonio Costa. He was seen embracing Antonio Costa. Mr. Macron was part of the tough negotiations for the European trillion dollar stimulus, for a recent all night EU negotiation, and involved in Brexit talks. He met with Charles Michel of the European Council and Ursula Leyen, head of the European Union. All or most of these leaders will now have to self isolate. Mr. Macron wore a mask during the entire period and was careful not to shake hands. 

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This report in FR24 cites the director of research at France's National Institute of Health and Medical Research, Inserm, about the damaging effects of an insecticide used in the French West Indies. The result is that there are violent protests against the vaccine mandate being implemented in the French West Indies. 

The FR24 report says that about a third of the marine coastline, and a third of agricultural land and land for breeding, in the West Indies islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique is polluted by the insecticide chlordecone. The insecticide was first used in banana plantations in the French West Indies against banana insects. The insecticide has now contaminated the soil and groundwater. 

 

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France and Germany support the EU coronavirus rescue package of 750 billion euros with 500 billion euros in grants to struggling businesses. Four countries- Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Netherlands- which supported the austerity policies that hurt working families in Europe for a decade after the financial crisis of 2009, do not support grants and instead call for loans to be made. This time Germany has swung over to the French side and southern European countries such as Italy and Spain that suffered badly from the virus. Without solidarity in such a situation the EU concept becomes meaningless and Merkel says these countries that oppose common borrowing do not understand the gravity of the crisis facing Europe's economies after the virus. 

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Scott Anderson of the NYT provides an indepth look at the Arab World and its fragmentation through the eyes of five people from each part of the Arab world- Egyptian, Kurd, Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian. He says the countries that fell apart are precisely the ones that were formed by the British and the French, and Italy, following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire  using divide and rule policies- Britain in Iraq, France in Syria, and Italy in Libya- without much thought given to setting up viable nation states. This is why Iraq has a Sunni-Shia divide, Syria has similar divisions, and Libya with a largely tribal based structure, never really held together after the colonial powers left, and were held together only by strong dictators. Today's problems trace back to these historical events. This is complicated by the largely young demographic and restlessness of the people for change coupled with problems of underdevelopment in education, tribal loyalties, religious loyalties, and lack of political and social structures that could keep the countries together as change and transition to democratic processes took place. The role of the military further complicated matters in Egypt. Even Iran experienced these divisions because of the intervention of the great powers including Russia in Iran since 1900, leading to swings between liberal governments, foreign power supported governments, and a swing back to religious leadership as at present. This is one view of the region, others are presented by Ramadan (Oxford),  Bernard Lewis (Princeton), and leaders in Qatar and Emirates, other experts, some of whom point to the failure in leadership and the elites to find solutions to the problems of underdevelopment, in education, health, infrastructure, and aspirations for a voice in their governance. As the same divisions left by colonial powers affected Asia- in India, China, and Korea, but a larger vision of progress prevailed through crises and difficulties.        ...

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Demographic trends and Muslim populations around the world. some of the fastest growing populations are in Pakistan, India, Nigeria. Slower growth in Indonesia. In Europe faster growth in Spain and France relative to other countries. The Muslim popullation in Europe will be about 10% in places like Sweden and France in 2030. Where multiculturalism has been denounced, in Germany the Muslim population grows from 5% in 2010 to 7% in 2030, and a little over 4% to 8% in Britain. In France it goes up from close to 8% to a little over 10% in 2030. This is from research and forecasts done by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in January 2011. It does not suggest a huge problem especially if the Muslim populations are affected by the trend to democracy in their home countries and improving standards of living, and a move towards integration in the different societies in Europe.

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With Labour leading in polls Mr. Johnson faces a no confidence motion in parliament after 53 Tory members called for the motion. No elections are planned before Jan 2025. There are no choices for the Tories other than Mr. Johnson who could hold his broad coalition of working class districts in the north of England and affluent districts in London. Mr. Johnson has also taken England through the pandemic, vaccination drive, and pandemic aid programs to help the UK recover, which he reminded Tory members of parliament.  The partygate scandal refers to parties that Mr. Johnson says never happened but took place during the worst part of the pandemic which have created an impression of callous behaviour and disregard of rules. The Conservatives face another problem in that the US and the EU including countries such as Denmark, Germany and France are moving in a direction that favors leaders who are promoting a revival of manufacturing locally, creating local jobs instead of job shifting overseas, increasing minimum wage, and promoting interests of workers and families. Labor had lost credibility during the Blair years similar to SPD losing credibility during the Schroder years, France's Socialists losing credibility under Hollande, and the Democrats under Clinton-Obama, and a general loss of credibility of socialist leaders who failed to work for the interests of workers and families. Biden, Scholz, the German Greens under Habeck, and French under Melenchon are changing this today wtih a new and genuine commitment of respect for the dignity of workers and families, and women. There may be a sense of unease among Tories about how long the working class districts in the north of England will vote Tory when no investments are being made to fulfill the promises Boris Johnson has made. Yet Tories have no alternate leader and may be stumbling their way into the remaining part of their period in office as Britons look for a new future where the massive investments needed in manufacturing locally and in infrastructure take place to benefit workers and families. ...

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Germany faces serious problems in its vaccination drive and efforts to control the pandemic in November 2021. The rate at which people are getting vaccinated has slowed to 150,000 a day and the percentage of the population that is vaccinated is stuck at 67%. This percentage of 67% fully vaccinated in Germany as of November 3 is much lower than that in Spain, France and Italy.  Spain is at 78%, France at 69% and Italy at 72%. (Data from NYT) This report in the Guardian points out that most of the remaining one third of the population is not eager to get vaccinated as surveys show that the those who have refused to get a jab are unlikely to change their minds.There is also the problem of booster shots. Germany's 16 regions conduct the vaccination drives and with many of the vaccination centers not active since September staff has to be retrained or rehired. This makes it harder to give booster shots to everyone that was vaccinated early by the start of winter. Why is it that Germany lags behind Spain in vaccination? There is a great deal of trust in Spain and Portugal in the health service and people are 100% behind their health system. The other countries that have a low rate of fully vaccinated are the US at 58%, Brazil 57%, Russia at 33%. Even the UK with its well respected National Health Service remains at 68% fully vaccinated. Today the US, Russia, Brazil, European Union countries and India have many of the 5 million deaths from coronavirus. India's vaccination drive is approaching 1100 million vaccinated, yet there is along way to go in getting most of the population fully vaccinated because of the large population of 1.3 billion. This is why the Indian prime minister on the first day of returning from the COP26 climate summit devoted his time to meeting with leaders of different states and heads of districts with low vaccination rates to press home the idea that the effort had to be taken up vigorously in the coming months. ...

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Germany faces the possibility of a pandemic surge of the unvaccinated, something that is happening today in the southern United States.  For days the percentage of people that are fully vaccinated remains at 62%. Some vaccination centers are closed. A vaccination center outside the train station in Cologne offers passersby free vaccinations. Berlin's Social Democrat mayor Michael Muller is very frustrated. He says "I am now coming to a point where I think we have exhausted what we can do in politics."  At 62% the rate of fully vaccinated people in Germany is too low to prevent a surge of the Delta variant in the way that it has hit the southern US, and California. Vaccination rates of close to 85% are needed to tackle the risk of another surge in highly contagious delta variant. Not everyone remaining is die hard opposed to vaccines. The Robert Koch Institute estimate is that 5 to 10% of people are in that die hard category. The remaining 20-30 % are people who have various other concerns and fears, hesitancy, that may be changed.  The chairman of the World Medical Association Frank Ulrich Montgomery favors a vaccine mandate, what he calls a 2G rule, that should be introduced in Germany requiring vaccination to attend events, sports, restaurant visits, adopted nationwide. German government has rejected idea of mandatory vaccination of health personnel, that was adopted in France. Vaccination drives are regionally based. Some are ineffective such as the Deutsche Bahn train system vaccination drive for commuters that only had a few hundred doses of J&J vaccine and ran out quickly in Berlin. One prick J&J some say is better for vaccine skeptics. Vaccine skeptics think they may get away without getting covid infection. How does one get over this misconception? Others including members of the Greens party say vaccine needs to be delivered where people are- transit points, bus stops, doses offered in evening and early morning hours, trying new ways to reach people and inspire confidence. Germany now ranks behind France but ahead of Bulgaria in terms of vaccination percentage in September 2021, not a good situation. ...

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Moderate far right, right and socialist have less meaning in the context of the French government of prime minister Michael Barnier. The NFP as the largest single party sees the turning down of it's moderate candidate Lucie Castets by Macron as not representative of the vote. Michael Barnier's choice as prime minister from the Les Republicains party with 47 members in the new National Assembly, the smallest of the top four parties NFP, Renaissance, RN and LR, means he will have to depend on Marie Le Pen's RN party to remain prime minister. Together the Les Republicains of Sarkozy and the Ensemble of Macron  have 213 members in the National Assembly representing the status quo, 168 for Ensemble Macron and 45 Les Republicians the Gaullist party. These two parties are the largest bloc combined compared to 182 seats for the socialist NFP Front Populaire and the Le Pen party with 143 seats. The strange twist is that Macron started out in the Socialist Party and was part of the Socialist administration of Francois Hollande, who formed his own party Renaissance (now Ensemble) to bring younger faces and replace the old political parties. This led to the decline of the Gaullist Les Republicains party. In 2024 Macron is back to the old parties- becoming part of an alliance with the old Les Republicains Gaullists. Yet the financial crises of 2009, the pandemic, and the inflation crises in France have changed France from what it was in the Gaullist De Gaulle period in the 60's to 90's, with a struggling lower and middle class who have shifted their support to Le Pen and to the Socialist Front Populaire. Barnier is left with the challenging job of combining new immigration policies (Le Pen) with socialist policies to help the middle and working class. A new consensus that says stopping migrants is part of helping working class (in Denmark and other EU countries) is how Barnier has to approach this situation to bring together different parties. ...

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A WSJ interview with Jose Socrates, the prime minister of Portugal. Socrates says he supports more European integration in economic matters. The context for this is the meeting of 26 leaders of European nations in Brussels on February 4, 2011. Germany is pushing for major changes in the way the European Union works so that economic integration is coupled with the political integration process. This is now thought to be the only way to make the EU work, and both Germany and France are pushing for this. This is also the price of German financial support to countries like Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. In an earlier interview with WSJ, Spain's finance minister, Elena Salgado, offered her support to the German plan. Aspects of the economic coordination Socrates supports are pushing up the standard retirement age to 65, which Portugal has done. He is less supportive of de-linking wages to inflation. There he pointed to the 5% public sector pay cut to go into effect this year. Socrates says the challenge for Portugal is "not to be more competitive with lower salaries." He also provided statistics that show that " this is a modern country." Statistics on electronic government tenders, the ratio of computers to children, the percentage of energy from renewable sources. And said people are talking who have preconceived ideas and don't know anything about Portugal. ...

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Lois Boisson of France No.361 makes it to final 4 at the French Open, Roland Garros 2025. She entered as a wild car invitation and beat Jessica Pegula No. 3 on the clay courts.

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The G-7 leaders of US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Japan along with invitees from India and Indonesia will meet at a resort hotel 62 miles south of Munich. Located in the Alps mountains near the Austrian border it has no air conditioning. The approach is to have as near as possible a natural setting with a stream that generates 20% of the energy and a rustic but refined setting. There are 5 rooms each for every country leader and a separate place for their staff. It was built between 1914-1916 by Johannes Muller, and reclaimed by his family in 1961 after being taken over by the US Army. His grandson Dietmar Muller-Elmau is the current owner. 

Elmau rebuilt the hotel in 2007 after a fire, with a 115 room building The Hideaway, and a separate building the Retreat nearby for the G-7 type gathering.

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The G20 declaration from Indonesia says that it "is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability." It called the threat of use of nuclear weapons "inadmissable." It said "most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine." Overall this was a major step forward with meetings between Biden and Xi, Trudeau and Xi of China, and discussions that led to Macron of France announcing his intention to visit China to get China to mediate for peace in Ukraine. It sets the path forward after Covid pandemic for peaceful cooperation in places other than Ukraine and efforts to bring the war in Ukraine to a close. The midterms in the US Congress also set the stage for Mr. Biden to offer a stable US participation after the volatile Trump years in peaceful competition with China, and growth in India, Africa, and other parts of Asia and Latin America.

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The Editorial Board of the WSJ says the vote in the German parliament 586 in favor and 100 opposing for sending heavy weapons to Ukraine brings Germany and the US, Britain and France closer in efforts to turn back the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The resolution of support for Ukraine clearly states the German parliamentary position says WSJ- efforts for a ceasefire that will be agreed to by Ukraine and western allies. The Scholz government is asked in the resolution to support "all efforts by the a Ukrainian government to reach a ceasefire in direct negotiations with the Russian leadership." It also states "it must be clear that there can be no negotiations over the heads of the Ukrainians." WSJ says it hopes chancellor Scholz listens to the German parliament with 586 out of 686 calling for efforts to turn back the invasion in coordination with allied efforts.

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Jean-Luc Melenchon, for two decades at the fringes of French politics, has a carefully prepared program to address the concerns of working class voters in France. He has not appealed directly to yellow vest voters so as not to affect relations with other moderate voters. He is now accepted by French business because of his detailed action plan for the French economy and French workers. Other voters see him as the only one with a serious action plan with his plan for the Sixth Republic removing the powerful executive presidency setup by De Gaulle and drafting a new constitution.

He has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine yet says it does not help to humiliate Russia and setup more NATO countries close to its borders. During any negotiations both Russia and Ukraine have now accepted the idea of Ukraine enjoying neutral country status in the same way as Sweden. 

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The failure of Merkel's and Macron's policies in Europe. The policies contained a contradiction says this WSJ report- doing little to address concerns of Russia over NATO expansion and yet opting to build better economic relations with Russia. Merkel and Macron failed to tackle the main issue of NATO expansion. Did NATO need to expand continuously and what could be done so that Eastern European countries could join the EU but not NATO as a defense alliance. Without some new framework on this issue that was determined between US, Russia and Germany, France, for post 1990 peaceful relations the relationship with Russia based purely on trade has collapsed.  

This WSJ report also brings up the issue of the US and Europe not having it both ways - continually expanding NATO in the interests of the smaller nations in Eastern Europe and yet hoping to build a better relationship with Russia.

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British prime minister Boris Johnson announces tough new measures that make it illegal to socialize in gatherings of more than six. This is an effort to fight a second wave of coronavirus in Britain. The government now believes that normal life will not return till spring and that "moonshot" mass testing will be needed to contain the virus. The new "rule of six" goes into effect in Britain on September 14, and anyone "breaking the rule risks being dispersed, fined and possibly arrested." Covid marshals will patrol city centres to split up large groups.

Schools workplaces and restaurants will be able to hold more than six people in total but they will have to be groups kept separate. The prime minister said it was needed to stop Britain from the exponential growth happening in France. He said "a stitch in time saves nine."