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This NYT editorial says that before he was elected Mexico's president Nieto, with his book "Mexico- The Great Hope," (Mexico- La Gran Esperanza)presented himself as a candidate who would transform Mexico. Yet says NYT three years into his administration it has turned out to be very different, with no effort to clear up the questions about the murder of 43 students in Guerrero state. Economic growth has not matched the hopes generated after the Pacto de Mexico was approved and new legislation limiting monopolies passed. The slump in oil prices has led to limited results following the opening up of the oil industry to foreign investment. The result is an administration increasingly unpopular in Mexico and failing to deliver on the hope generated in the early months of Pena Nieto's administration. Many of the tasks for transition of Mexico to a modern economy- free of monopolies, crime, a better education system, economic growth in all parts of the country, remain unrealized. During his term as governor of the state of Mexico 2011-2015, Pena Nieto's main achievement was the 608 Compromisos or promises which were placed on the internet website tracking progress on the health, infrastructure, highway and other projects. During the current administration the early results were achieved in the first year through agreement with the rival PAN party for the Pacto de Mexico, to reduce monopolies and open up the oil industry which had falled behind technologically with lack of investment. Since then the progress has been slow, the one bright spot being the auto industry with increased foreign investment. Regional disparities persist with the Bajio region, and the areas around Queretaro, Aguascalientes, near Mexico City growing fastest. Pena Nieto won the 2012 election with 38% of the vote mostly from this region, the incumbent PAN party at 25%, and the left front Of Lopez Obrador 32% drawing support from less developed areas in the south and the rest of the country. Just as the earlier Atenco protests and police action to clear protesters blocking land acesses by the state for expansion of Mexico City's airport, and the Soy 132 student protest movement during Pena Nieto's term as Governor of State of Mexico 2011-2015 affected perception of his administration, the murder of students at Guerrero affects perception of this administration. Nieto comes from the upper sections of the PRI as the nephew of two former governors of the state of Mexico, has a law degree from the Ibero-American University, and a masters degree in business administration from ITAM....

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Samuelson says the bill in the U.S. Senate is symbolic because it allows companies to cite the undervalued renminbi as an illegal subsidy and have the Commerce Department impose duties on Chinese products. This would have to be done on a case by case basis, making it largely ineffective in dealing with the large trade deficit with China. He also cites the differences among economists that show a range between 1 million and 2.8 million jobs lost. The 2.8 million jobs estimate is from the Economic Policy Institute for the period 2001-2010. The 1 million is an estimate for 1990-2007, which estimates a loss of quarter of all manufacturing jobs. By WTO rules subsidies that are not targeted at specific industries or firms are allowed, according to lawyers. Which means China could appeal to the WTO, and impose retaliatory duties. In the meantime the trade deficit with China, with imports of $364 billion in 2010, and $86 billion in exports, would remain largely unaffected. This is the reason some Senators, including Republican Orrin Hatch (Utah), see this move as political posturing by President Obama and the Democrats, because the administration has no new proposals to address the trade deficit and the gradual erosion of America's manufacturing base. Samuelson cites Arvind Subramanium of the Peterson Institute, and his book "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance." Subramanium says what is at stake is not a temporary imbalance in world trade a happened with Japan in the 1980's, but a gradual shift to a system of trade in which China has preferential access to raw materials (oil, grain, minerals), subsidizes exports in new industries as it moves upscale from shoes and textiles to automobiles, aircraft and alternative energy, and changes the very nature of the global trading system as it becomes the dominant trading nation in the world. By Subramanium's estimate China's share of global trade increased from 1.6% to 9.8% in the 2 decades from 1990 to 2010. In two more decades he estimates China could increase this to 15% of global trade, significantly larger than the U.S. In a response to Congressmen, businessmen and policymakers wary of starting a trade war, Samuelson says there already is a trade war as a "fixed" system of trade undermines America's manufacturing and industrial base. The only difference being that today only one side is fighting that war, and America is slow to grasp the implications or its policymakers are clueless how to respond....

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A transcript of remarks by Ben Benrnake as Fed Governor on Dec. 9, 2003, at meeting of the Federal Open Market Comittee which makes monetary policy in the USA. Bernanke is teling his colleagues here that it would be amistake to choke off growth unnecessarily by raising rates, that critics who say inflation is a threat are not well informed, and that the Open Market Comittee should remain patient. Here he points out that the large decline in the share of the population that is working -with one survey showing household employment at 2.9 million jobs below normal at that time- suggesting that employment could rise significantly before seeing pressure on wages and unit labor costs. With the underutilization of labor, the withdrawal of people from the full time labor force, and increase in parttime employment, there are todfay anumber of changes ocurring in the labor markets that build additional slack into the system from what the unemployment rate of 9% today would suggest. A similiar case could be made today with factory capacity utilization at 68% and dropping, and manufacturing hard hit and seeing a permanent downsizing in industries like automobiles. What about raw materials prices? Bernanke shows agraph of historical data, that suggest convincingly he says, even very large movements of raw materials prices appear to have muted effects on intermediate goods prices and no discernible effects on final goods inflation. The reason for this is that raw materials prices are only asmall portion oftotal costs, and unit labor costs are a far larger factor in inflation determination that raw materials prices. And at that time as is happening today wage growth is slow or negative. What about the dollar falling in value making imports more expensive, which we face today? Here Bernanke says that asimilar anlysis applies to the dollar. Large movements of the dollar he says, translate into smaller movements against the U.S. trade-weighted basket of currencies, and into smaller effects on import prices because of imperfect pass-throughs. And he goes on to say that the nonoil import prices, in turn, are are a relatively modest part of the overall price index, making the ultimate effects quite small. This analysis by Bernanke of the impact of rising raw materials prices and falling dollar having a muted effect, and the important role slack and underutilization of labor in the labor markets play in inflation, helps respond to critics like Laffer and others who say inflation is a threat and call for changes in the policy course the Fed has set....

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Jennifer Steinhauer of the NYT says the U.S. Congress is acting as a counter balance to  president Trump to maintain America's postwar policies common to both Republican and Democratic presidents and seen as part of core values- support for NATO and the mutual defense enshrined in Article 5 of NATO, support for the trans-Atlantic alliance. Senators in Congress are now voting overwhelmingly to support these values. This is seen in the manner the leading Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee sees his job- to retake the important role Congress and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has historically played in making foreign policy. His view is that the committee he chairs had become a kind of debating society. It is also seen in the way Corker handled a Russia sanctions bill giving Secretary of State Tillerson time to seek improvement of relations, and when time had run out pulling together all members of the Senate to pass the Russia sanctions bill. That bill passed the Senate by 97 for and 2 against in an overwhelming show of support for Congress to make its own foreign policy moves.  ...

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Technology is reshaping the world of oil by 2018. The U.S. Permian Basin stretching from West Texas to New Mexico now produces more oil than the UAE and is likely to soon surpass Iran- production is at 3.1 million barrels a a day. There are as many rigs as in 2011 yet the production has tripled because of the use of high tech rigs that can move quickly to new locations over wide areas and with tech that can see hundreds of feet into the rock. By 2019 the U.S. will surpass Russia as the world's largest producer of oil. The drop in oil prices to about $40 a barrel in recent years is a result of Saudi efforts to block shale oil development by lowering prices. This has not worked. Initially some high cost producers exited the industry and the shale industry suffered. Over time the new technologies spurred by lower oil prices have led to the anticipated drop in cost. Shale oil can now be produced by core producers at $40 a barrel and still be profitable according to this WSJ report. All Middle Eastern countries cannot meet budget needs at $40 a barrel. In 2018 oil prices increased back up to $77 a barrel. In the next wave of declining prices the shale industry is better positioned than the OPEC countries.   ...

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Theresa May, Britain's Home Secretary in the Cameron government, is a candidate for prime minister with the planned resignation of David Cameron by the fall of 2016. May was first elected to parliament in 1997 from Maidenhead, a town west of London. She was educated at Oxford University, worked in financial services and the Bank of England, before entering politics. She is known for hard work, a direct approach, and candor on policy issues. During a annual party convention she told Conservative party members that "our base is too narrow, and so occasionally are our sympathies," adding that people called Conservatives as the "nasty party." This was the period when Blair's Third Way was popular and Labor Party was in power. A daughter of a clergy man, she presents a rather austere image but reassuring in turbulent times with a down to earth and patient manner.  Her sports hero is a cricketer Geoffrey Boycott, known for taking long patient batting stands on the cricket  grounds- something Britain needs as it faces long and difficult negotiations with the European Union.  During the EU referendum she supported Cameron and the Stay campaign but quietly, so that she can be seen as the Unity candidate for the deeply divided Conservative Party. On immigration  she was as Home Secretary responsible for one of the difficult issues of the Brexit campaign- with net immigration at 330,000 in 2015 exceeding the 100,000 target set by Cameron. That she retains confidence from all segments of the party, as well as her education, experience, and resilience, may provide some of the "calm and composed" manner that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for in the Brexit negotiation. ...

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Galston focusses attention on the major problem facing democracies in Europe and the U.S.- that of providing decent paying jobs and improved economic prospects for lower and middle income households. He cites the surveys from the Pew Research Report and the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics showing how middle income households median net income remains stuck at levels of 1997, and lower income households at levels of 1996. The median net worth of American households adjusted for inflation presents an alarming picture of being at $96,000 in 1983 and $98,000 in 2013 for middle income families, and being at the level of $12,000 for lower income families the level of 1975. Most of the new jobs as much as 95% are being created in the low wage service sector and the BLS statistics show the future looking much the same- with huge numbers of low wage jobs, fewer decent manufacturing jobs because of automation and jobs shifts to low cost locations overseas, remaining manufacturing jobs in the U.S shrinking by another 800,000 to 7% of the workforce by 2025. The result is the alarming rise of populist politicians like Trump in the U.S., Le Pen in France , and populist politicians in Hungary and Poland. Cultural liberals in the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment are both threatened by the rise of cultural illiberalism, xenophobia, and nationalism, as economic anxiety increases, and fears of terrorism and immigrants add to this anxiety. Progressive tendencies in the Republican party since the days of Theodore Roosevelt and of professional elites in the Democratic Party could become endangered if no serious effort is made to come up with solutions to the problems these trends present. The disconnect between the concerns of the working and middle class and the professional elites as the gap widens and the social compact in America and Europe breaks apart, means a new mindset will be required in America and Europe to deal with this. ...

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In this interview with Alessandra Galloni of the WSJ following the June 28, 2012 European summit, Monti says Italian spreads with German bonds would be 1200 or something if the Berlusconi government were still in power. Monti later called Berlusconi to say he regretted the extrapolations on spreads mentioned in the intervew that could be seen as banal or abstract. This is taking the phrase out of the context as the comment was made in the context of a question by Galloni asking why Italian spreads were so high even after the actions taken by Monti to improve competitiveness including labor reforms. Monti's answer was that this was because markets are sensing that eurozone governance is weak, that though France has done less reform its spreads are low because people think Germany would never let France go. Monti makes the statement here that the agreement of Europe's political leaders that they would do whatever is necessary to save the euro after the eurozone June 2012 summit, including stabilizing the markets through EFSF/ESM instrument, gives the ECB the political and moral justification to engage in buying Italian and Spanish bonds to stabiize yields at acceptable levels. He just hopes the ECB does not wait till the night before the catastrophe (disintegration of the euro) before it acts, and does this slightly before that time. And his words to Merkel and Germany about the need for ECB interventions to stabilize yields are clearly stated- Merkel risks facing an Italian parliament that rejects Europe and the euro and is not a friend of Germany if the action is not taken.Throughout Monti remains committed to the idea of a economic and monetary union of Europe. To give up on the euro is to give up not just a currency but a civic culture. It is the most forceful statement of any European leader during the eurozone crisis....

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Timothy Egan points to the huge gap between a T.R. in 1910 making the speech in Osawatomie, eastern Kansas, and Professor Obama making an election speech in 2011. T.R.'s was an election manifesto that brought up the issues of conservation, child labor, a plea for an income tax, call for worker protections, limits on corporate power and influence on the laws and direction of the country. The speech was made in 1910, after Taft had assumed the presidency with Roosevelt's backing, and would lead to T.R. running against Taft and Woodrow Wilson. Most of what T.R. advocated became part of the country's social and economic fabric, much of the work beginning with Theodore Roosevelt's two terms as president, and also pursued by Woodrow Wilson, the president elected in 1912. By contrast, in line with the timidity of today's politics, Obama's speech called for approving his nominee for consumer protection bureau chief, and continuance of tax cuts for the middle class. Egan calls it a curse of today's politics and national debate that no politician can set the course for revitalizing America the way T.R. did. Some of what T.R. said in Kansas that day is: "There can be no effective control of corporations while their political activity remains. To put an end to it will be neither a short nor an easy task, but it can be done." "The right to regulate the use of wealth in the public interest is universally admitted." Jackie Calmes covered the extensive ties of both candidates, Obama and McCain, to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, in her report for the New York Times, on September 9, 2008- "For 08' Rivals a Skein of Ties to Loan Giants." Paul Gigot, editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal, who with his reporters did some of the difficult reporting on Fannie and Freddie, wrote in one of his columns with a note of pessimism, that he wasn't sure that either of the presidential candidates were interested in what was happening. ...

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BW's report says Housing will go back to normal by 2012. This is a better case scenario. But there are serious downside risks and unknowns. A study done by Rogoff and Reinhart shows that it takes about 6 years or longer before things return to normal after a serious crisis. This could mean 2012 is the earliest things could return to normal. And this assumes that housing demand remains at about 1.5 million homes a year as in the past, and with only about half a million homes being built now as developers scale back the difference of 1 million homes would cut into the inventory to bring demand and supply back into balance. But changing demographics with an aging population and different needs, new frugality with buyers renting for longer, and the perception that homes are not a investment, slowing immigration, all factors that could change the nature of the market and demand in housing, could lead to things dragging out for longer. BW has assumed a more optimistic level of GDP numbers from Moody's Economy.com estimates made in May 2009, with GDP declining 3% in 2009, growing 1.4% in 2010, 4.7% in 2011, and 5.8% in 2012. These estimates are on soft ground because no one really knows for sure what will happen in anumber of areas in the years ahead. In terms of deflation and inflation in the years ahead, capacity utilization is at 68% but a look at the declines in manufacturing show that some of it will be a permanent loss as in the auto manufacturing base, export markets depend on how economies in Asia and other countries are performing, a new frugality and different consumer behaviour because of debt levels at 100% of GDP could permanently lower demand to levels different from that in the past. The regional nature of the recovery in housing will still be very much present, as areas with surging population growth and areas where housing price rises were modest, from Nashville to Austin, do a lot better than California and Florida....

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When Paulson met with his staff a few days ago he stamped his hand on a marble table asking his staff to stop their arguments with politicians who supported Fannie and Freddie because it would result in a war which he did not want as reported in the New York Times recently. Representative Barney Frank is mentioned as one of the politicians supporting the management of Fannie and Freddie. So it happened that to the very bitter end these managers used their lobbying and political donations to distort the policymaking progress right under the eyes of the Republican administration that knew what was going on and media like the Wall Street Journal that has warned about the dangers at Fannie and Freddie for years. One question remains why under the original mandate for Fannie and Freddie were the companies not banned from political donations and lobbying as they were backed by a government guarantee and at the same time could distort the process of supervision by lobbying and political donations to Congress if this was allowed. So in the end its the biggest failure of the political process and of setting up of such companies that once set up they were beyond anybody's control. Josh Rosner, an analyst at Graham Fisher an independent research firm in New York, makes an apt comment: "since 2003 when these companies' accounting came under question, policymakers have done nothing." One can repeat nothing, and the politicains in Congress who received the donations will go on with their political ways while the government and the public shoulder the burden of billions of taxpayer dollars in the biggest bailout ever, considering the size of these two companies and what at stake for the country's housing markets, and considering that foreign governments like China have invested billions of dollars in these companies and needed assurance to continue to buy and hold Treasury bonds....

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The figures are startling, alarming dangerous whatever you call it. How many homeowners are under water or owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth today in today's depressed market? And how many more will be under water in tomorrow's even more depressed market as unemployment gets worse in 2009, and much worse after that in 2010. Moody's Economy.com's chief econmist mark Zandl has worked out some figures. And he says one in 6 mortgages in America today are under water, that is 16% of 7.5 million households that own homes they live in, or roughly 12 million households. To give some idea of how quickly this is deteriorating while Congress, the Administration and the general public could not reach any agreement or consensus about assisting homeowners avoid foreclosure in steps that cover all homeowners across the USA. The comparable figures were roughly 4% under water in 2006 and 6% in 2007. Thats a huge jump from 6% to 16% and was not expected to be such a steep jump in 2008. And it may be accelerating for 2009. And of the homeowners who took on a mortgage in the last 5 years the figures are startling, 29% are under water according to estimate by real estate Web site Zillow.com, that is one in 3 almost. Which is why absence of government help on a comprehensive scale covering the whole country and all homeowners facing foreclosure remains the one huge gap in the rescue package passed by Congress for $700 billion at Sept end 2008. Why is it dangerous? Because it accelerates the downturn in the economy and exacerbates the problem of toxic mortgage assets on the books of overleveraged banks, as dropping housing prices from higher foreclosures depresses the value of those assets even further. And this creates a vicious circle of lower consumption spending followed by lower production, higher unemployment and leading to lower consumption spending in a repeat cycle leading to higher foreclosures as a consequence of higher unemployment....

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ZipRecruiter estimates shows 11.3 million job openings posted in June in the US. Economists surveyed by the WSJ shows there were 11.4 million job openings in April, and 11.1 million in May in the US. The number of people looking for jobs was 5.9 million in April. The US jobs market remains strong.

There is a slight softening because of high interest rates and slowing demand. 390,000 jobs were created in May according to Labor Department. This is expected to soften to 250,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate staying at 3.6%. The shift out of leisure, hospitality because of covid exposure and lower wages, fewer opportunities continues. There is also as shift from schools to higher paying jobs in other sectors. The hiring in tech and real estate is not as strong as earlier with changing outlook in these sectors.

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A strong U.S. jobs report in July with 255,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.9%, provides positive sentiment going forward. The Federal Reserve is likely to be wary of raising rates because businesses are hiring but are not making the investments needed to spur economic growth, which remains at about 1%. The labor force participation rate is now at 62.8%. The measure of unemployment and underemployment shows a better picture of how different age groups are faring including the 25-54 years age group- this is at 9.7% in July 2016, it was 9.6% in June 2016. This measure shows those working part time because they cannot find a full time job. The market today is stronger for those with the right job skills, but not across the spectrum for all Americans, only setting the stage for further progress and increasing investment as confidence improves.

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Conservatives increase their share of the popular vote by one percentage point to 37.6% and gained 19 seats. The Liberals fared badly with their share of the vote at 26% the lowest since 1867, and the Green Party at 7%. Some of the Liberal supporters switched to the socialist New Democrats. Liberal's leader Stephane Dion chose to fight the election on a plan for a carbon tax just when the economic crisis hit. Harper's Conservatives failed to make any inroads inQuebec which remains inthe hands of Parti Quebecois and alienated many Montrealers with his comments. Harpers base is in western Canada with oil rich Albertans and Saskatchewan farmers. Harper forms another minority government with minimalist government intervention policies.

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Krugman has some legitimate concerns. Noting that 600,000 jobs were lost in February, 2007, which would mean several million jobs lost, anywhere from 5 to 7 million jobs lost in 2009. In the face of this generating 3.5 million jobs by the end of 2010 as Obama plans to do, looks like not having done enough, and letting the worst effects of the downturn go on. And the lack of a plan to resolve the situation of failing banks, which are only drawing more of the government's capital, leaves continued weakness in credit markets and the economy that will hurt the unemployment picture through 2009. So in spite of all the rhetoric and good intentions, the lack of experience in dealing with a crisis of this magnitude, political deadlock, and an element of trial and error, learning and observing, as the President and his advisors deal with the evolving crisis, leaves the American economy exposed to many risks.

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Schools, shops, restaurants, cafes and offices are reopening and people are getting back to work and outdoors. What are the ways to reduce chances of getting the coronavirus and what is the latest advice from public health experts.  More attention is now being given by CDC and other experts to the aerosols, the smaller particles that are airborne that can spread the virus to people unawares in breathing, talking and singing activities. larger droplets come down to the ground, smaller droplets can be airborne for hours. This makes masks wearing very important, call it essential protection. Air filtration and proper ventilation is also important. What about social distancing? Experts now say 6 feet is good, 10 feet is better. This is from Joseph Allen director of the Healthy Buildings program at Harvard School of Public Health. No magic number but 6-10 feet or more is good for safety. Can one start expanding one's social circle? The fewer contacts the better says Dr. Allen. You can he says expand the circle but this depends a lot on how serious the other family is in taking precautions. Are elevators risky? If one can one should take stairs but do not board a crowded elevator unless the lobby is more crowded. Do not touch buttons, if you do use elbow or use sanitizer from your shirt pocket after pressing. This is where mask is essential. Here a tip is useful. Talking does not help as talking emits 10 times the particles than when you are quiet and this is true for small spaces such as elevators. Continual talk is not a good idea such as a long time spent talking, here watch that habit of getting into long conversations face to face.  Is it good to take a summer vacation. Here the answer is yes, as no one really knows how the winter will be. And remember outdoors is good for renewal of health, and one can look for places that are not crowded where the 10-12 feet or more can be easily done. One tip here is to take your own food and supplies from home so there is no need to go to crowded restaurants. Swimming in a lake or ocean is fine. Camping outdoors is fine and actually a good idea if you are with your own family. Try to use an empty restroom and one that is clean and wear the mask. While camping keep the 6-10 foot rule with people outside your immediate family, do not share food and drinks and try not to touch each other's supplies, and sanitize your hands or wash if you do. When hiking keep the mask in your pocket so you can wear it when you see others passing on trails. In hotels skip the cleaning service, in a rented property ask the owner to keep the windows open before you arrive, and put a day or two between your coming and the last person who rented the place. Renting a car is tricky allow a couple of hours to elapse between you and the last rental, open windows. Public restrooms. Always wear a mask many are poorly ventilated. Open the door without use of hands if possible,or use a paper towel to open and discard. Do not use air dryers. Is it safe for your house cleaning person to return. Keep the windows open to let in fresh air. Make sure your cleaner wears gloves. And all should wear masks. How to visit grandparents? Experts advise keeping visits outside and wearing masks when not 6-10 feet apart. Anyone not feeling healthy should avoid the visit. And bathrooms should be sanitized after people leave even wait a day if there is another bathroom. Experts advise against sharing food and buffet type meals. Ten feet distance is better than six feet. Can one use a gym? Here the advice is to exercize outdoors or at home if one can. It says be cautious unless your gym is limiting the number of people or spacing the equipment adequately. Ask about open windows, air filtration systems, ventilation.  This is excellent advice from experts with the latest information. Over the last few months from March to May most of the information was during lockdown, and a lot can be forgotten or seen as not necessary as things return to normal, as shops schools and cafes, office reopen, and cases remain steady and under control. Being vigilant is good for safely navigating this period through the summer and into winter till a vaccine is found. It is also about being a good civic minded person aware of one's own responsibilities, as when all take safety seriously and practice it everyday, it builds another layer of protection for everybody- because it creates a safer environment for all.     ...

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A former cricketer who helped Pakistan win the World Cup, is elected prime minister of Pakistan, His party leads in the 2018 elections with 120 seats, the party of Mr. Sharif with its base in the Punjab wins 60 seats, and the party of the Bhuttos with its base in Sind province wins 40 seats. Imran Khan has the support of the military in Pakistan.

Mr. Sharif was ousted as prime minister before the election on corruption charges first revealed in the Panama Papers. 

Pakistan faces challenges of managing its economic relationship with China with debt repayments to China for infrastructure projects leading to a planned IMF bailout in 2019. The relationship with India remains strained over Kashmir, and leads to a situation in which the military runs external affairs of the country. The economic and political issues need to be untangled so that Pakistan and the rest of South Asia can divert resources from defense to economic development.