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DJT and Treasury's Scott Bessent taking a "call" not a "put" on the economy March 2025. Tariffs as short term bargaining chip, primarily domestic policy on CMC (Canada, Mexico and China) tolerance for fentanyl flows into the US. Taking fentanyl, drug trafficking, and migrant trafficking out of the Nation, will revive the spirit of America's neighborhoods across America's vast landscape. It is incumbent on CMC countries, Canada, Mexico and China, to stop fentanyl flows into the US across their borders that have caused hundreds of thousands of American deaths. Tariffs are a last resort for America to get action and save America's neighborhoods from this scourge. Investment in the US manufacturing in the private sector as the long term policies shape the economy, the cutting of waste in spending, have the potential of reviving the economy and leading a second stage of growth led now by the private sector investment after the government led spending under the Biden administration on restoring American infrastructure. ...

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Kashmir region has a long history that has been lost in the coverage since 1947 as the colonial rule ended in the region with intermittent peace and conflict. For 7 centuries since 100BC there was Hinduism from the Vedic period, then Buddhism, followed by 7 centuries of Shiva religion, till the 15th century. In the 15th century  Islam entered the region for 3 centuries till the Sikhs and Sikhism a religion around deity Ram around 1819, and the British after 1850. The British set up a protectorate in Kashmir under the British Empire ruled by a Sikh king from 1850 to 1948. What this says is that after a unsettled period till 1948 to 2020, the region is likely to return to its history of tolerance for different people from South Asia, with one huge difference, the rapid modernization of the region in the 21st century replacing the feudal poverty and backwardness of a overtaxed and underdeveloped farmers communities. This is a trend back to Kashmir's true history over 15 centuries since 100BC which is irreversible. ...

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This article is a must read for everyone to know where our plastic and other paper waste is ending up. With China's ban on importing plastic waste the stuff is being shipped to India, Malaysia, Philippines and Vietnam. Now these countries are turning it back. Who needs sometimes contaminated waste. In the U.S. it ends up mostly on landfills. It is a health hazard as one recent story of waste shipped out to a part of Chile shows- with health problems for people in the vicinity. The WSJ has done an excellent story with diagrams and pictures in this exceptionally good story we recommend for our readers to know what is happening worldwide with plastic waste.  There is increasing education of the harmful effects of plastic and there is a government campaign in India supported by the prime minister Modi to reduce use of plastic bags and find ways to dispose off local plastic waste. In the light of this why would India or Malaysia or any other Asian or Latin American or African country want any other country's plastic waste, particularly when it is a health hazard. In fact China for so long allowing importing of plastic waste till recently so it could be processed with low cost labour and reused for plastics production is incomprehensible, considering the health risks involved. ...

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Utah governor Spencer Cox and call for introspection on open debate and discussions without rancor and strife. Cox launched a “Disagree Better” campaign in 2023 with Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis in an effort to restore civility and respect in open debate between differing viewpoints. After all there have been strident difference of opinion since the founding of the Nation and the many crises it has faced. The years leading to the Declaration of Independence to the War with Mexico, the Civil War, the peace movement before World War II, the McCarthy years, Nixon years, and the strife over DJT rhetoric and style of politics. Cox says- “It’s important to understand that in our political system today all of the incentives are lined up against this concept of dignity and respect,” he added. “We made a decision that we would only run for this position if we could do it in a different way and it had to be a positive vision.”  “Social media is a cancer in our society right now, and I would encourage people to log off, turn off, touch grass, go hug a family member, go out and do good in the community."   ...

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India's Russian oil imports Indian OMC's (oil marketing companies) say Russian discount for oil was about $8.50 per barrel in FY24, and dropped to $3-5 in 2025 with at present in August 2025 it being $1. CLSA/Citic Securities research report uses an average of $4 per barrel to get the $2.5 billion gain for India per year in 2025. Note that Russian oil is of inferior quality and the CIF landing cost used by Indian companies is much higher because of long supply routes insurance costs compared to Saudi oil. India could shift to buying from Saudis and UAE in 2026, and reports suggest India is already making this shift as Jamnagar and other refineries in India shift to non Russian sources. India's gains from Russian oil imports estimated at $2.5 billion lower than the $10-25 billion figures says a CLSA/Citic Securities research report. In 2025 Indian oil imports are at present 36% or 1.8 million barrels a day from Russia of 5.4 mbd total oil imports. Saudis provide 14%, Iraq 20%, UAE 9%, USA 4%. One alternative for India would be to shift much of it's oil imports to the Saudis, UAE and US to shift to the situation before the Ukraine war and Russian discounts for it's large population.   ...

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This report in the WSJ shows Cubans lacking water for washing, sanitation, and having electricity blackouts or electricity for only 4 hours a day. Cuba lacks money to buy oil. The economy has long been shown to be frozen in the past without the technological change seen in other countries in the developing world. It shows the only model that works is one of good governance, access to US and European capital and technology for modernization, close relations with the US, building domestic knowledge base and engineers for  modernization, as sine qua non essental conditions in the Modern World since 1950. China and India tried under Mao and Nehru under socialist regimes but failed. The Monroe Doctrine is not for the US, it is an essential pre condition for countries in the western hemisphere on which the other essential conditions are laid to create modern societies. China and India with the essential conditions achieving modernization under Modi and Deng and his successors. It is true that Cuban dictator Batista's regime was a bad one in the 1950's, yet the answer is not to put in its place or as a reaction to this an idealistic version which like human nature is prone to corruption and decline, but build on sound and firm ground foundations tsuch as these essential conditions and sine qua non that stand the test of time and are good for the American continent. ...

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The issue of high youth unemployment. The bulge in demographics and the emphasis on increasing the number of college graduates without increasing the jobs available, or providing apprenticeship type training and degrees in areas where jobs can be created, has created a major problem in the Middle East. High youth unemployment in the US, Spain and the UK also poses serious problems. Former primer Minister Giuliano Amato of Italy recently told Corriere della Serra: "The older generations have eaten the future of the younger ones." Older workers tend to hold onto their jobs as long as possible as retirement ages are being raised, and they have negotiated higher retirement pensions. In Spain the younger part time workers and immigrant workers are the first to be laid off and unemployment is highest in this group, which is also why the high unemployment has not attracted as much attention there. Younger workers will eventually have to support a higher proportion of these workers in retirement because of the demographics. The shift to higher parttime employment and employment at low wages has also created a class of workers who have no future, as their incomes are low, and are easily laid off. This shift has been taking place in the US, Europe and Japan over the last decade. Germany has fared better because of its long tradition of apprenticeship training, and employers working directly with young students at universities to provide on the job training. The financial crisis of 2008 in the US slowed down many industries and created a shift in industries creating jobs, the result was a larger mismatch of skills of job seekers and new jobs created. One way to address this is more on the job training and working directly with employers, and assistance to community colleges to fill education gaps. ...

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Friedman says Obama's 2012 presidential campaign lacks bold vision, a failure to articulate tangible achievements, and owes too much to campaign consultants. He describes it as being developed in test tube fashion. The failure to embrace and strongly advocate his own presidential commission's Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction plan, which could be coupled with long term investment in the productive potential of the U.S. economy, shows the lack of courage to prepare a plan going forward. It is likely to cost support of independent, center and center-right voters in the 2012 U.S. presidential election.

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The Bank of Japan set a 2% inflation target and committed to follow a "open-ended" moneary easing, with purchases of financial assets and a zero interest rate policy as long as necessary. This acion was taken after apolicy meeting on Jan 22, 2013.

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Obama's closest advisor, David Plouffe. Asked about Plouffe's influence in the Obama White House one aide says that Plouffe's imprint is on "everything." For the last 18 months Obama has kept the 2012 election in mind in his actions and kept a campaign focus, on the advice of Plouffe. George W. Bush's advisor, Karl Rove, does not see this positively, as he says it kept the president from governing. One issue on which there is considerable questioning is why President Obama did not support the recommendations of the president's Simpson-Bowles commission on deficit reduction. Though it remains conjecture, it may be because of Plouffe's and other election related advice that reducing deductions- or what are called tax expenditures- as suggested by Simpson-Bowles would be politically unpopular. If true this may be ways in which running for office long before the election date may affect necessary action in governing. The political calculations when allowed to go rampant can distort the needed actions of responsible governing, and lead to timidity, indecision and lack of leadership. ...

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A lead researcher at Stanford and UC Berkeley says he hasn't seen anything like it, the opposition intensify so quickly. 70% of Democrats and 50% of Republicans oppose overinvestment in AI  and increasing in sentiment- not about stopping progress but  about stopping hyperlevel investment of trillions of dollars and diverting from reindustrialization/infrastructure for US that creates jobs and a better qualityof life. In today's world neither China or the US can afford hyper investment, most Asian countries would prefer to let the US do it and later get that technology for free one way or the other. Therefore this means the American people are being hoodwinked- they pay the price when their bridges and roads, airports are in disrepair, when even a national network of data charging stations could not get funded under Biden which would have addressed the biggest problem for transition from fossil through EV's to fight climate change.  The investment community is being hoodwinked. Investors are being hoodwinked as the returns are uncertain and cannot be justified on financial grounds- only by hype.  Polls only ask about AI not the hyperinvestment in AI. If the truth is known that these trillions of dollars diverted by using flaws in capital markets in the US, avoiding financial scrutiny and hyping up AI when returns are by a long shot uncertain compared to rebuilding America's infrastructure and industries to compete with China and the EU- that is desperately needed- then these numbers would show the vast majority of Americans oppose this diversion of funds from the infrastructure and reindustrialization that create jobs that support working families. Take for example Texas, a Republican state, where the Agriculture Commissioner is calling for a moratorium on new hyperscale data center development in the state, citing higher costs for farmers, and strains on the power grid. It is not about stopping progress. Fon transition to renewable energy or example the adjustments made by Biden and Democrats allowed some fossil fuels use to make the transition, the same policy being pursued under different political slogans and labels under DJT. It is not about stopping progress as progress continues even under DJT Republican administration - natural gas prices and coal use prices are making natural gas a choice for power plants, the cost of oil at $100 making EV's hybrids cost less than gasoline cars. AI technologies will advance, and the wherewithal, the framework in which AI should operate can be built alongside without throwing everything out of balance. Throwing the whole economy out of balance, destroying the chance to create jobs and bring about the 1st priority of America and EU- reindustrialization and infrastructure renewal alongside India's modernization. That requires these trillions of dollars being pushed into AI by a few self-interested individuals without returns, and trillions of dollars more. If that is accomplished any challenges from China will fade in comparison with the scale of the effort in the EU, the US, and India with the largest industrial bloc in the world far bigger than China. This is not mere words. It is a plan of action that is being put into place right now at Oslo, Norway at the Nordic+EU Summit with India on the next phase of this effort, put into place piece by piece through hard work and a clear vision for the future. ...

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Eliud Kipchoge is one of the rare runners from Africa for his outlook on life. He is from Kenya, and holds the world record for running the Marathon. At the Berlin Marathon he set a record of just over 2 hours, with an improvement of 78 minutes the biggest in 50 years.  How does he do it? He wears a wrist band that says "No human is limited." He believes it is in the power of the mid to do what it sets out to do and what it believes. As he trains in the Kenyan highlands his idea of life is living simply which "sets you free." There at training camp he shares in the chores, including cleaning toilets, and always maintains the discipline that is part of his daily routine. Being disciplined is about not just the two hours running but the other 22 hours as well. A simple life means no distracted mind. Says Kipchoge: "My mind is always free. My mind is flexible. The mind is what drives a human being. If you have belief-pure belief in your heart- that you want to be successful you can talk to your mind and your mind will control you to be successful." This 34 year old Kenyan runner won the 5000 metres at the World Championships in Paris in 2003, won silver in Osaka in 2007, but failed to make the 2012 Kenyan Olympics team. He then switched to marathon running and won ten marathons, three in London. As part of the NikeBreaking2 project Eliud is taking on the challenge of running a marathon under 2 hours, 63 years after Roger Bannister set the 4 minute mile record. ELiud believes there are still beautiful things in store, some cool things to do. And his dream is to build a running world that brings joy and peace - "There is freedom in running. Go and run and your your mind will be free."    ...

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Days after firing Henderson, and leaving Lutz with an advisory role with no reports, Whitacre who is now the CEO has moved to bring younger managers in important positions. Mark Reuss assumes the role of head of the North American operations. One year ago he was running the Australian operations. He was only recently in charge of engineering at GM. The Board is pushing for these changes. Whitacre says the GM culture and tendency for top managers not to bring in younger managers to run things has stifled talented younger people at the company. Susan Docherty was given additional responsibilities of marketing. Some of these moves were long overdue. The old echelons simply stayed on for too long risking the jobs of tens of thousands of GM workers and taking the company to the brink of disaster.

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Reusable bags can replace 520 plastic bags used at stores each year for each person. Estimated 100 billion plastic bags are discarded in the USA alone each year according to Worldwatch Institute. San Francisco has banned them from stores and Boston, Baltimore and Portland (oregon) are considering banning them. The nylon bags made of thicker material that are being used as a substitute can also be a danger in landfill unless they are reused again and again because those bags will sit longer in landfills than the thinner ones. according to a source at MIT in materials science. The critical idea is getting a good sturdy bag and to kep using it over and over and not discard the bag for a long long time so that we keep less of this plastic in the landfills.

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91 year old Chuck Grassley is head of the Senate Judiciary Committee. He has a passion for vigorous Congressional Oversight that has not diminished with age. He says in an interview that he does alot of oversight and all of us should know from our 8th grade civics that Congress has a responsibility for checks and balances to make certain that the executive branch enforces laws consistent with the oath they take. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, a veteran of the US Senate, who like Biden has served for a long, long time under many presidents since he entered the US Senate in 1980 and now holds the office of Senate President pro tempore, says- "We not only pass laws, but you learn in eighth grade civics that we’ve got a responsibility of checks and balances to make sure that the executive branch of government actually enforces the laws according to the oath that they take. So that’s my job and I do a lot of oversight. " He expects Democrats to rebound quickly so that we will have a very different situation in 2026.  ...

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Niall Ferguson, Professor at Harvard, expects 2 consecutive years of contraction and two lean years after that. Again the worldwide recession makes it harder to come out of this one, and having seen only 2 consecutive quarters of contraction there is a long way to go.

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Some of the ideas of Richard Holbrooke that have never been disclosed before on the conflicts in Pakistan and Afghanistan are disclosed by Kristof of the Times. Holbrooke believed the Obama administration's military approach to the conflict would not work. He worked hard to build a diplomatic solution similiar to the Dayton accords that he helped negotiate for the ethnically divided Yugoslavia. He earned the respect of Pakistanis in working for a long term solution to problems in the region.

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William Burns, a former Deputy Secretary of State, and a former ambassador to Russia 2005-2008, looks at the U.S. and European Union relationship with Russia following the expulsion of Russian spies in 2018. He says the U.S. and the European Union should take strong action, yet hopes this is a passing phase so that a healthier relationship can be built with Russia in the long run through diplomatic channels. Expressing views expressed by former president Obama and other experts, Burns says Russia lacks the alliances and broader support that the U.S. and European Union have, and is much smaller than the larger economies of the Western alliance. Under Putin a strong interventionist position has made Russia look better at home but may not be the best for Russia in the long run, says Burns.   Burns calls for stronger sanctions on the economic elite and business leaders under president Putin. Yet the sanctions have not deterred president Putin and a long run solution needs to be found, including issues such as Ukraine and issues that affect the Russian economy so that the change in relations since 2014 can be reversed. After the Berlin Wall collapsed hopes for integration of the Russian economy into the West were raised yet were not realized for Russia in the years following the Yeltsin government and the Russian economy suffered, first during that period and then during emerging market crises. Russian disillusionment with the West was followed by a more inward looking economy under Putin to help stabilize the Russian economy, accepting devaluation of the ruble to make the Russian economy more competitive in a period of low oil prices. Foreign investment collapsed following the Ukraine crisis but the Russian economy adapted to the shock from oil prices. This was followed by efforts to preserve these gains with an interventionist policy that made the Putin administration look better at home and win popular support with strong action in Crimea and Ukraine. This interventionist policy has played out too far with the meddling in U.S. and European elections creating a backlash that is now taking place. With the European Union, having a traditional policy of restraint and good relations with Russia, openly questioning Russian policy under Putin. Much of that period when Russia responded first to the collapse of the Berlin Wall with the collapse of the Russian economy, and in the following decade facing emerging market crises and collapse of foreign investment -which created a more inward looking Russia under Putin in his third term- is shown in Lyrarc.com. In some ways the Russian response in Ukraine, the effort to bolster popular support at home in elections, and the interventionist approach are linked to the efforts to find a Russian response to the economic crises Russia faced since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Seen in this way a shift to better relations is still possible as a broader perspective is gained.  ...

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A survey by Bonn based infas Institute of Applied Social Science in 2017 shows Germans are not affected by 2 years of crises in the way they look at the world. Germans are still the same in their international outlook, in tolerance and openness, and liberal outlook. Chancellor Merkel even says today that she would do again what she did during the height of the refugee crisis when refugees gathered at Keleti station in Budapest and began the long march to Austria and Germany. Merkel goes into the 2017 election with the kind of confidence that did not appear likely even at the beginning of 2017. The European Union could even emerge stronger from the crisis. Britain's Conservative government appears isolated after the Brexit vote.

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The landing of the lunar probe Chang'e-4  on January 2, 2019 makes China the first country to land a probe on the far side of the moon. This follows a landing by Chang'e-3 lunar probe in 2013. A followup mission Chang'e-5 in Dec. 2019 will collect samples of the moon's surface and send them back to earth. The goal is to build a lunar base by 2025 and man the facility by 2030, and in the long run mine the moon for energy resources.  The U.S. space program  has lacked the steady commitment and vision needed to put astronauts on the moon for a second time, and is now being given a fresh boost for challenges ahead.

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Bernie Sanders announces his support for Hillary Clinton as nominee of the Democratic Party after a long season of bruising primaries. The effort is now to heal the divisions in the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton has adopted some parts of the Sanders agenda including some aspects of providing tution free education in public colleges. Both Hillary and Bernie appeared at a joint rally in New Hampshire. Sanders said that at the Democratic Platform Committee ending on July 10, 2016, the two had come together on setting a platform that he believes is the most progressive ever for the Democratic Party.

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For senior executives of financial firms investing in August 2011- following weeks of extreme volatility in the U.S. stock market- is all about capital preservation. Executives interviewed here have moved all their money to high grade bonds and cash. This is happening even as the advisors of financial firms are telling the public to stay in the stock market for the long term, and even as many middle class investors have seen their savings shrink from the crash of 2008. It is the crash of 2008 that has made the executives interviewed here turn highly cautious.

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Analysts see the likelihood of Greece exiting the eurozone at over 50%. The actions of the ECB under Mario Draghi to provide funding to weak banks through the Long Term Financing Operation have reduced the effect the effects of contagion from a Greek default spreading to banks in other EU countries. The fiscal pact signed in Jan 2012 at the EU summit with automatic penalties for countries lacking budget discipline provides Angela Merkel more room with her domestic political base to support the EFSF's capacity to help other eurozone countries. Greece with its deteriorating economic situation would then be considered a special case.