LyrArc Article Gist
A open conversation with the NYT's Baker, Schmidt and Haberman by president Trump in mid July 2017. This conversation of the president with the NYT is remarkable for its frankness about people close to the president during the election campaign, particularly Jeff Sessions of Alabama. Sessions was the only leading Senator in Congress who supported Mr. Trump from the beginning. Southern states came out heavily for Mr. Trump as part of the traditional Republican base. Trump says of Sessions that had he known Sessions was going to recuse himself from the Russia investigation he would not have appointed Sessions as the new Attorney General. About Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein Trump says he should never have appointed Mueller as Special Counsel. The president also says Mueller should stay only with information related to Russia and not stray from that to delve into Trump's finances. During the election efforts were made to get Mr. Trump to disclose more about his finances as a real estate businessman- most of these efforts failed and not much is known about president Trump's finances. The president says he never said he would order the Justice Department to fire Mr. Mueller, yet he left open this possiblility, according to the NYT, as the president feels it has affected the first 6 months of the Trump presidency. This interview with president Trump was published on July 20, 2017, the day after an editorial in the WSJ by the Editorial Board of the Journal on July 19, 2017, calling for transparency from president Trump on the Russia investigation. This was an exceptional and powerful editorial by its editorial board telling president Trump that he must tell everything he knows now or face the risk of losing public confidence, and risk his presidency. It said that president Trump was wrong to think that his larger than life personality and social media role could insulate him from the effects of this lack of transparency. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The vote in the Senate was 67 to 27 to move forward with the $95 billion aid package to Ukraine and Israel. The bill has $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine, and about $8 billion in economic assistance. $14.1 billion to Israel and $10 billion for civilians in conflict zones. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell leads a determined group of 18 Republicans in the US Senate that support efforts by Majority Leader Schumer to get a bill for Ukraine Israel Aid passed in the next few days. This would also include economic aid for Ukraine and humanitarian aid in the Gaza conflict. Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska says that deterrence is not divisible, American credibility is not divisible." This comes as former president Trump opposes the passage of such aid in Congress. This report says the former president says America's role should be only transactional, and to Russia the NYT reports he says he would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. President Schulz of Germany met with president Biden at the White House this week. After passage in the Senate it faces a challenge in getting enough Republicans to support passage in the House. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Dec. 13, 2016, that it would increase its benchmark short term interest rate by 0.25 percentage point, to between 0.50% and 0.75%. The increase will also be reflected in business and household borrowing costs. The Fed also announced its intention to make 0.75% percentage point increase in 2017, possibly in 3 quarter percentage point moves. The Fed's forecast is for the fed-funds rate to reach 2.1% at the end of 2018, and 2.9% at the end of 2019. The Fed's policy is based on a sense of strong labor market with unemployment falling, and says it is based on discussion at a 2 day meeting, and "in view of realized and expected labor-market conditions and inflation." This reflects a view that there is now not that much slack in the labor market, that further improvements could trigger higher inflation. Fed forecasts for inflation are for it to increase from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.9% in 2017 and to the target of 2% in 2018. The unemployment rate of 4.6% in 2016 is forecast to go to 4.5% in 2017 and remain at that level till 2019. Economic growth is forecast at a median annual rate of 1.9% in 2016, 2.1% in 2017, only a slight improvement from last forecast in Sept. 2016. Support for chairwoman Yellen's policy decision was unanimous. See the link on views of NYT's Binyamin Applebaum and Neil Irwin on how Fed rate policy and economic growth under the Trump administration is likely to play out, and Ian Talley's report on impact on exports with a stronger dollar in WSJ. These views also are in line with the Fed's forecasts and policy decision as they reflect the concerns of the Fed about inflation, and also reflect the Fed's view that growth will be close to 2% in 2017-2019, and not the 3-4% stated by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Fed rate policies to keep inflation at about 2% tend to counter stimulus spending by the Trump administration and effect of tax cuts. The size of the stimulus and the tax cuts are also likely to be much smaller than stated because of Republican concerns about the deficit in the U.S. Congress, according to these views. The stronger dollar also has the paradoxical effect of making trade gains more difficult while increasing trade friction in tougher bargaining supported by Trump, making the higher growth targets harder to reach.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
For groceries cost limiting Trump proposes nothing. It was found in the EU that there was excessive price action by grocery stores in 2022 and 2023. Though experts say no for price setting by government, the deterrent effect of a policy of the government to not set prices but to send a clear message about excessive profit as anti-social behavior, has beneficial impact for price reduction or future price increases to be put on hold. Harris will do this. For child care costs. Trump proposes nothing and does not put children as the next generation of Americans at the top of priorities. Harris puts children as the top priority and early years development as critical. Harris proposes a child tax credit of $6000 per family that would cost $110 billion per year estimate from Office for Responsible Budget, offset by Medicare savings achieved by negotiating with Pharma of $36 billion a year, tax on billionaires at 25% instead of 8.2% saving $40 billion a year, for net cost of $44 billion a year the Harris $6000 Child Tax Credit.  Congress including Democrats failed to extend the $3600 tax credit per child below 6 years that was introduced after 2019 yet allowed to expire in 2022 reverting to $2000 per child under 6 years. The concept is accepted as helping children, Vance the Republican VP nominee has suggested $5000, only opposed by country club Republicans oblivious to the importance of children having free school lunches and parents having the money for child care added costs for the future of the children of this Nation.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Astoundingly in America 90 percent of people support universal background checks, yet private party sellers are not required to conduct background checks when selling guns. According to a Pew Research Center poll 67 percent of people support a ban on selling assault weapons to civilians, yet no such ban exists. It has taken this long just for president Trump to come out in favor of background checks. Ironically mass shootings have led to higher stock prices for gun manufacturers such as Smith and Wesson, as DW.com points out.  The National Rifle Association, NRA, has five million members and it lobbies hard to prevent gun control measures being passed in Congress. Members of Congress are even rated A to F based on their support for the NRA. Today an estimated 42% of Americans own guns, with 265 million guns in private hands. The NRA sees gun owning rights as part of the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, believing that the right to bear arms is a basic right supported by the Constitution. The NRA over many decades has shown no flexibility in its stance and fierce lobbying has brought down every gun control measure introduced. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
As the trade problems with the U.S. escalate in tit for tat tariffs, China looks back at its history for parallels. The period of the "unequal treaties" imposed by the Western powers on China in the period 1850-1900, the Korean War of the 1950's, and other analogies that come up to people. Yet China's planners and leaders are looking at another situation the Plaza Accord of 1985 in which the western nations pressured Japan into accepting a significantly higher exchange rate to reduce its trade surplus and the Japanese yen appreciated by 50%. Japan cut interest rates from 5% to 2.5%, and introduced huge fiscal stimulus, banks opened up to lend vigorously. The result was a boom by 1990's followed by a bust that led to another decade of lending to loss making firms called "zombie" businesses, that led to a stagnant economy. This has persisted for three decades. This China sees as an unacceptable situation when China has still not achieved developed economy status in terms of per capita incomes. It fears getting into a middle income trap as the economic growth slows and the aging population makes a recovery more difficult.  The difference with Japan in the 1985-1990 period is that Mr. Trump lacks the kind of five nation economic coordination that put pressure on Japan. Today there are differing views on China in Europe and the U.S. and different policies. Mr. Trump is known for his style of deal making and could settle early, as feared by some Republican leaders in Congress who see in China a challenge to America's technological dominance. There are no calls to appreciate China's currency. Only calls for China to change its state subsidies model and put in writing and through laws that change the way of doing business that does not require American companies to hand over advanced technology. This is also a concern for Japan and the European Union countries such as Germany, and is something all nations try to protect in global competition. Japan is still facing the consequences in creating a new competitor in high speed train technology after building the first high speed trains in China and transfer of the high speed train technology by Kawasaki. The Household Survey by the Federal Reserve showing the financial fragility of 40% of American families shown on this page today shows how this situation is likely to evolve as working class families in the U.S. support a trade stance that protects American jobs and technology. Job losses over three decades and a $891 billion trade deficit in 2018 are seen as unacceptable to the U.S. in 2019. A stronger U.S. dollar helped increase the U.S. trade deficit by 10% in 2018, nullifying some benefits of Mr. Trump's trade actions. Mr. Robert Lighthizer was a negotiator in the trade dispute with Japan in 1985, and runs the negotiations with China with support from president Trump. This alone has kept the Japanese situation in 1985 uppermost in the minds of China's leaders as they try to come up with a way to settle the trade dispute with Mr. Trump.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
When you remove the 7 Californians and 4 Independents  only about 9% of 264 Congressional Democrats, or 26 Democrats have reservations about the president running, 91% covering every part of the country, the vast majority of American states and congressional state delegations, have confidence in the president to make the best decision. The chances of California going Republican or Trump Republican are  very, very small. Wash. Post shows 37 members of Congress on July 19, 3 weeks after June 27 debate issues, saying don't run. This is of 264 Congressional Democrats. Aug 1 is only 11 days away for planned Aug1 roll call of delegates committed to Biden. Of this 37 only 1 each from Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2  from Arizona from swing states, none so far from Georgia or Nevada or Pennsylvania. What does this tell us? It says that 264 minus 37 or 227 Congressional Democrats think Biden should run only about 15% of Congressional Democrats vs 85% of Congressional Democrats. And of the swing states only 4 Democrats. Polls- 4 months before elections polls are not really useful and not meaningful, a lot can change. Congressmen in swing districts are likely to have questions, and it is not uncommon for this to happen before the election say people who follow Congressional history. The fact that 7 are from Republican states like Texas or Ohio and could be impacted may give some idea for their reasoning. Of the others 7 are from California and 3 from New York. Which suggests the largest group is from California, remove the 7 and take out the 4 Independents and 34 goes down to 23 or about 9% vs 91% of the rest of the country having faith in president Biden. In any case California is unlikely to go Republican or Trump Republican by a long shot. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
President Trump's failure to followup on his decision to shut down all flights to China on January 29 with speedy action on preparing for the coronavirus as suggested by some of his advisors is the subject of this article in the NYT.  There were two distractions one was the trade deal with China that was being negotiated, and then the impeachment trial in the U.S. Congress that was set in motion by Democrats. Another problem was the lack of good information about the extent of the virus spread in China and infected case numbers. As it turns out no one really knows the real scale of infections in China. If is was known that there were as many cases in China as there are in the U.S. today this would have resulted in shaking up any complacency in the Trump administration and in the states. Considering the experience of Europe and the U.S. it could be that China had the same number of infected cases as the U.S. does today for a population three times the size. China had a strict quarantine but it also did not realize what it was up against in the first weeks of the crisis in January. It appears now that China, Europe and the U.S. all lost some time from 2-4 weeks before realizing the severe consequences facing each region. This report says one of the vital pieces of information that was learned about infected people in China, was learned as late as the end of February by leaders of a government team looking at the coronavirus threat. It was that seemingly normal healthy people without symptoms but infected by the virus could spread the virus. This meant that this was very, very contagious. The lack of good information played a significant part, adding to the level of complacency in states such as New York and in the Trump administration. Politics such as the impeachment trial and political infighting added an unnecessary distraction. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This is an exceptionally humorous operating room story of Dr. Trump and Dr. McConnell by Kristof of the NYT. Sometimes humor tells the story- and Kristof does this using a story of a surgeon president Trump in the operating Room trying to address the concerns of the patient Janet, as he keeps telling her she needs a new heart with great benefits, great benefits, before she implodes or goes down failing. Flat out take the old heart out even if a replacement hasn't been found, believe me great benefits the surgeon tells her, just that the patient just isn't getting convinced as its happening to her. The analogy is with replacing a health care plan, not just the Obama plan, any plan without something to take its place. For a few days before this article by Kristof, the Republican effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act without having a replacement was presented as a good idea. Janet is like the three Republican women- Collins of Maine, Capito of West Virginia, and Murkowski of Alaska who wanted to keep the heart they had till a replacement was found, against the surgeon Trump's advice. In a way it is about politicians in the last decade who never had any discussions as they rushed through with their own agendas, as the Republican and Democratic health care plans were rushed through Congress with relatively little participation and debate to hear all viewpoints. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Criticism in China of president Xi Jinping mounts as the tariff war with the U.S. Trump administration escalates. The recent vote in the People's Congress abolishing term limits also comes under criticism.

Some of the criticism comes from the view that president Jinping adopted too high profile a role for China with the "Made in China 2025" and other policy that suggested China was trying to supplant the U.S. These critics suggest China should have adopted a low profile in such matters. Under previous administrations China preferred to act in a cooperative way. The issue about artificial islands in the South China Sea aggravated sensibilities of western nations without adding much to China's security, being another issue that disturbed U.S. relations with China.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
Whether it is so called right or centre or left parties, their is a no nonsense approach to immigration in 2024. Across all parts of Europe from Denmark , Germany and Britain with socialist parties, to Italy and France with centre right, there is tough action on immigration. In the US both Harris and Trump are also taking tough action for law and order based immigration. With Harris calling for the swift passage of Republican Lankford's immigration legislation stalled in the US Congress that ends asylum loopholes and closes the US Border.

LyrArc Article Gist
Former CIA chief Brennan tells Congress that he warned the head of Russian security services that Americans would not accept interference in the election, that this would lead to a backlash and damage relations. Some of this is already happening as the investigations into Russian interference are filling the media coverage in May 2017 following the firing of FBI Director Comey. The FBI investigation also had since July 2016 included a small team that included the CIA and other intelligence agencies. Brennan was part of this team. Brennan said he told Bortnikov, the head of Russia's Federal Security Service- "I said American voters would be outraged by any Russian attempt to interfere in the election."

LyrArc Article Gist
This is a very informative interview with Joe Biden. So far Biden has given few interviews where he talks freely at length about how he plans to run his administration and what is most important to his heart. The title is very misleading in this respect. Unlike the inexperience of Obama with his "we won" we must be doing something right, Biden with his years of experience comes closer to Lyndon Johnson or Truman and the same drive to get things done. He says in this interview "there is no elation." He just wants to get somethings done as quickly as he can and he knows Congress as well as Lyndon Johnson did when he tried to get his vision of "the Great Society." It is almost as if the Biden sequel to the inexperience of Obama, is like the Johnson sequel to the inexperience of Kennedy.   To understand Biden is to know what hurts him most. Biden feels the pain that every rural county in America did not vote for him. He knows something is deeply wrong that this should happen as it has never happened before. It may be time to define diversity differently - people of diverse backgrounds not just ethnic or race but also whether with rural or urban backgrounds as they are today totally different. He also feels the pain that seventy two million Americans voted for Trump. He will judge his success or failure in winning over about half of them to bring this down from 47-48% to 25%. These issues will define and shape the Biden presidency. Can he deliver to the rural counties, health care, education, broad band connectivity, everything that has disrupted life in rural America from the way it was in the Truman and Eisenhower administrations when it comes to the social fabric. The China issue simply fits into this. European societies are feeling the pain of the fragmentation in their social fabric with starkly different opportunities for life in rural vs urban. Respect for fellow Americans comes before respect for China- or Japan, or India, or Europe. Biden understands what three decades of shift of manufacturing jobs to China and other countries have done to American communities, to small towns and the rural areas surrounding them in America. For this reason Biden does not plan to change the Agreement China made with the Trump administration for 25% tariffs on a portion of imports from China and China's written agreement to buy $200 billion of American products. For this reason his response to China's challenge emerging from trade policy set in motion by the Clinton administration, and allowed to continue by the Bush and Obama administrations with the addition of foreign wars that dissipated the country's finances urgently needed for infrastructure building and investments in education and advancing science and technology, is to reverse all the negative trends. Biden plans to make the investment in America that Mr. Trump started but to do this more effectively, he says.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Gerson of the Washington Post reflects on billionaire property developer Donald Trump's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. He says Trump's temperament could make or break his campaign, citing the disparaging remarks made by Trump when Megyn Kelly brought up the issue of denigrating women to Trump in a presidential debate. Roger Ailes, head of Fox News, and Rupert Murdoch head of the parent company, refused to disqualify Kelly from the seventh debate on Jan. 28, 2016, as Trump had insisted on for his participation. Gerson cites a little incident at a Pensacola, Florida Trump rally, with a microphone malfunctioning Trump uses strong language, according to Gerson. He compares this with a similar situation when he was with George Bush in the family theater practicing his first address to Congress, where he apologized to a teleprompter assisting him for being blunt and walking out. Gerson says it is time to take a deep breath and reflect on where we are today after many weeks of a campaign where the public discourse has deteriorated in unimaginable ways....

LyrArc Article Gist
Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Surprisingly very little can be found on the internet on how the relationship between Apple's Tim Cook and Foxconn started and how it evolved over the two decades- a key to understanding the two decade rise of Apple since 1998 when Tim Cook, an Alabama engineer, joined Apple's Steve Jobs to rebuild an almost demolished Apple. It is also key to understanding the rise of China in manufacturing to the point of excluding all other countries, including the US, for major investments. It is also key to understanding how the social relations have been disrupted in the US, how the US workers and families suffered from outshoring on this massive scale never before seen in the US for 100 years of the Industrial Revolution since Lincoln in the 1860's. This has not significantly changed to this day as the US goes into the midterms to elect a new Congress. Mr. Trump ruffled sentiment on this issue but had little action or results to show for it to reverse this. Mr. Biden is making some headway as the US elects a new Congress in November 2022 to take up the tasks to restore American leadership in manufacturing and in technologies that support advanced manufacturing from semiconductors to renewable energy. What happens now depends on many things. Mr. Cook talks about intuition as a main driver along with preparation and hard work in his project which has done little for America and the American people, in the sense of how its communities look like, and how its families live, as they are largely excluded from Cook's Apple project. Even as it employs about 3 million workers of contract manufacturers, for the most part in China with Foxconn. Total employees in the US are 37,000 mostly highly paid engineers and technical workers. The 270,000 working in what it calls its ecosystem are mostly workers in retail stores paid much lower wages. Of manufacturing there is little on the scale in China. Not since the days of Lincoln in the 1960's who fought a civil war so that the rights of labour in the US were protected as seen in his message to Congress in the 1860's, and through the Industrial Revolution for 100 years, has something like this happened in the US. It is not about some manufacturing taking place in Asia, it is the sheer scale that excludes America from significant manufacturing, about 300,000 workers in the US mostly in lower paid retail jobs, and 3 million in China with contract manufacturers that is an aberration from history. It is about delegating an entire supply chain in manufacturing that constitutes this huge aberration.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Joe Biden will hit the campaign trial in key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin starting Labor Day. This is the Joe Biden who stood on a picket line in Detroit. Across these states white working class voters see Biden as having their interests at heart. The United Auto Workers endorsed Biden and Harris. And Kamala Harris says this of Biden in interview with CNN Dana Bash- "History is going to show, not only has Joe Biden led an administration that has achieved those extraordinary successes, but the character of the man is one that he has been in his life and career, including as a president, quite selfless and puts the American people first.” The extraordinary successes are the bipartisan legislation only Biden with 50 years in Congress could have achieved in this century- trillions of dollars going to fight the pandemic, fight inflation, fight the battle for bringing manufacturing home to America. And instead of Trump doing nothing for infrastructure after talking for years about it Biden has launched the biggest infrastructure effort in the US in 50 years. Never in recent history has so much been done in so short a time, with so much to follow, and never has it been so little reported or discussed. Yet history will show what Biden has set out to do and given the opportunity for his vice president to do in her turn.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ responds to president Biden ramping up renewable energy plans and linking Republicans with Senator Rick Scott's plan for sunset provisions on federal legislation every 5 years that Biden says would include Medicare and Social Security. WSJ is critical of Biden's renewable energy plans and calls for increasing production of oil and gas to meet energy shortages and price increases. It is also against a wealth tax, Biden's $2 trillion Workers and Families Plan, and Biden's plan for Medicare to negotiate drug prices. WSJ says real disposable personal income increased $4205 under the Trump presidency 2017-2020, and has since declined by $374 with high inflation depressing purchasing power. The impact of climate change requiring brave choices and strong action is missing in the Republican plan as Republicans focus on attacking Democrats controlling the presidency and Congress on the issue of inflation. The issue of remaking supply chains are on both the Republican and Democratic agendas with president Trump giving more rhetoric against China's role in dominance of supply chains and Mr. Biden taking stronger action in Theodore Roosevelt's style of carrying a big stick and quiet posture in restoring America as a manufacturing powerhouse. The impact of climate change is short term rather than long term as seen by the heat wave in South Asia today, the fires in North America and Europe. Republicans are losing sight of the importance of making the shift on renewable energy quickly with some short term pain, as they push for oil and gas solutions and a less effective program for renewable energy. Mr. Biden is taking on bigger risks in the short term in the midterms and beyond but following a sound policy of aggressively pushing renewable energy. This can also be seen in the importance renewable energy is being given even in countries with a need for coal and natural gas such as India. Modi's plans in India are to buildup renewable energy capacity with aggressive targets for 2030. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Haberman and Thrush of the NYT provide an account of what happened at the White House when U.S. president Trump met privately with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi to work out a deal on the Dreamers, or Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, called DACA, that under president Obama allowed 800,000 young immigrants to stay in the country. President Trump had earlier said he would reverse DACA. DACA was setup under an executive order by president Obama in 2012 to allow immigrant children brought in under the age of 16 to stay in the country, with maximum age 30. In 2014 a second executive order by president Obama expanded this to include children under the age of 18, with no maximum age. Both executive orders were opposed by Republicans. In the meeting Chuck Schumer answered Trump's question on delaying or changing Trump's mind on DACA, "what's in it for me?"  Schumer said Democrats would work with Trump on new legislation on border security, but not on funding for a border wall. Trump agreed to work on a deal, including no deportations for a six month period. After different back and forth in the media, typical of the politics in immigration issues, the president says he is ready to work out a deal on DACA, if the Democrats work with him on toughening border security. Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress now agree that steps have to be taken on border security in stages. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Border crossings and encounters have fallen to 83,000 under president Biden with unilateral action by Biden in the absence of the Republican Lankford Biden legislation that would have shut the Border down. Border crossings of 83,000 are close to the border crossings that reached 74,000 under president Trump even with the building of a border wall. This was achieved with the support of the Mexican president and with Biden's action to effectively close the Border. The best action would have been to implement the legislation that Republican senator Lankford negotiated with Biden by February 2024 and which was allowed to languish in Congress by new Speaker Mike Johnson under the advice of the former president, which is incomprehensible as it is the first time in decades both parties came on to the same page to slow or diminish migrant entry into the US and remake the asylum laws. Many Republicans and Democrats protested this action of the new Speaker. It was a historic and missed opportunity to fix the Border once and for all, and took the courage of Senator Lankford and Biden. For this action Lankford goes down as a senator who belongs in Kennedy's Profiles of Courage, a book of Congressional leaders since 1800 whose courage and leadership have made America the leading democracy and industrialized nation that has won the respect of the world. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell tells the Washington Post in an exclusive interview that the dynamics surrounding the Trans Pacific Agreement pushed by president Obama have changed. He sees little prospect of it passing Congress before president Obama leaves office, and says it will be up to the next president to take it up after Obama leaves office in Jan. 2017. McConnell said that there is a lot of pushback all over the place. The Republican frontrunners Trump and Cruz both oppose the TPP, and all Democratic candidates including Hillary Clinton oppose it. In addition tobacco interests in McConnell's home state of Kentucky and pharmaceutical interests backing Senator Orrin Hatch, the Republican Finance chairman also oppose aspects of the negotiated deal. Labor unions, the automobile industry, environmental groups, and public interest groups, have strongly opposed provisions of the TPP that hurt workers and the public interest from the beginning, making it a risky proposition for Congressmen coming up for reelection in 2016. The divergence between the Republican establishment and the presidential front runners Trump and Cruz also have diluted support in Congress on the Republican side, making it a no win proposition....

LyrArc Article Gist
Following Brexit on January 31, 2020, Britain's government led by Boris Johnson prepares to negotiate new trade deals with the U.S. and other countries. The freedom to negotiate these trade deals was a key part of the plan of Brexit supporters and Mr. Johnson. The Times, Britain's leading newspaper, looks at the prospects of trade deals with each country- the U.S., Australia, New Zealand, Japan. Facing re-election Mr. Trump is seen as favorably inclined to work out a trade deal that he can show during the campaign. Trade discussions have taken place between the UK and Australia, Japan. Mr. Morrison in Australia and Mr. Shinzo Abe want to see strong trading ties and investment with Britain. Japan or Australia could be the first countries that work out a trade deal with Britain as discussions are at an advanced stage.  Britain has a small deficit with Japan in trade. It has a small dollar surplus in trade with the Australia and New Zealand. With the U.S Britain has a large surplus, it exports 121 billion pounds and imports 76 billion pounds. The prospects of trade deals are enhanced by the similarity in outlook of the governments of the U.S., Australia, and Japan, which share views on jobs expansion, economic growth and are centre right in economic philosophy. They also share a strong connection with working class voters under Johnson,Trump and Morrison. Mr. Trump is seen as a strong deal maker so that any deal would involve some concessions from Britain that increase U.S exports, including farm exports. Difficult issues with the U.S. are -pharmaceutical drug imports that could increase Britain's NHS cost for drugs, the digital services tax from Britain on U.S.  companies such as Google and the Trump retaliatory threat to impose tariffs beyond the current 2.5% on car imports of $11 billion from Britain. On agricultural imports Britain's natural foods preference conflicts with imports of genetically modified (GMO) foods from the U.S. Experts say this could lead to a partial or Phase 1 deal that does not need approval from the U.S. Congress, similar to the Phase 1 trade deal with China which sidestepped the thorny issues on trade. This is something both sides can show their support base as a win. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Binyamin Applebaum cites different experts on how U.S. Fed policy could play out in 2017-2019. He cites Fed governor Dudley that there is increased uncertainty under the Trump administration, and other economists who say that aging population, lack of innovation, and steady growth under the Obama administration with falling unemployment, make it unlikely that growth will jump well above 2%. The Fed's own forecasts are for for under 2% growth in 2017 and 2018, and Applebaum says this is not expected to change by much. Janet Yellen does not see a huge stimulus as a positive, says Applebaum, because it would increase the deficit at the wrong time. He cites Yellen who prefers to see more fiscal space now that unemployment is down to 4.6%. Steady growth in the view of Fed officials has taken up much of the backlog of people looking for work since the 2008 crisis. Yellen sees some fiscal space as desirable with high debt to GDP ratio at 77 percent, so that the government could respond to some adverse event in the future. A Republican Congress is also averse to sudden increases in the deficit. See the link to views about the uncertainty of how things can play out in a separate article by Neil Irwin of NYT. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This analysis in The Guardian says US president Biden is reversing 3 decades of policy since president Reagan that looked with skepticism at government intervention in the economy. The $1.9 trillion aid package Biden has pushed through Congress is a big game changer in the way government operates to help rebuild America after the pandemic. The 2009 response by the government under president Obama was done without conviction that the government response was the best way to help the economy. By 2016 voters turned to a Republican, Mr. Trump, to help working class voters with a USA first policy, after decades of presidents from both parties Republican and Democrat failed to protect American interests in manufacturing, jobs and incomes.  US president Biden is continuing Trump's policies to protect working class Americans. And bringing new conviction that government not only has a positive role, but has an essential and vital role to play in protecting workers and households struggling to make ends meet. President Reagan had introduced such a deep skepticism of government, that it took so long for people to remember FDR and the role of government before the second world war and afterwards under the Truman administration.  What changed? The health care crisis exposed the weak areas in the governance and policy mindset in America. China had advanced mainly through strong government role of the Communist Party  in steering the economy and business to gain competitive advantage. The health crisis from the pandemic further devastated America's lower middle and working class following the banking and financial sector mismanagement by 2009. The pharmaceutical and health care sector similar to other sectors had shipped manufacturing overseas. In 2021 there is a deep sense that theories don't work, one has to act based on the needs and the situation the country is facing. The way competitor nations such as China are building new infrastructure, gaining manufacturing advantage, dominating key sectors and industries, and creating jobs, requires America to respond. In this situation posing the threat America faces as well as the social dislocation of decades of misguided policies, the US government is the only one capable and having the resources and capacity to respond.  ...