LyrArc Article Gist
Juan Martin Del Potro of Argentina retires. A much loved player he was always gracious. He won the 2009 US Open final with a win over Federer and was runner up to Djokovic in the 2018 US Open final. After wrist injuries and surgeries he had to retire from tennis and is missed in the tennis circuit. In a period of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic dominating world tennis Del Potro had to make a lot of effort to compete and he did this with grace and style of play, adored by the fans.

LyrArc Article Gist
Does the government need to take on GM's pension fund obligations? Based on the hopeful signs that the GM fund has been managed conservatively with mostly interest earning bond investments and stocks only 26% of the portfolio, and yearly interest exceeding the $7 billion owed to retirees each year, it appears that the GM pension fund for retirees is adequately funded for now. Says Charles Millard , Director of the Pension Guaranty Corporation, " we would maintain that GM can afford to keep its plan intact." The strategy changed after the 2000 tech bubble crash and the shortfalls in 2002. That year GM sold $14 billion of bonds and put in the proceeds of the sale of the Hughes Electronics subsidiary for a total contribution of $18 billion eliminating any shortfalls, and then proceeded to overhaul its investment portfolio replacing stocks with bonds. This is now one of the few bright spots in the GM picture offering a glimmer of hope for resolving the crisis. But were additional burdens to be placed on the obligations through large numbers of early retirements as restructuring goes on for a number of years then this may lead to large shortfalls. Which is why the country and GM and other automakers need to create other new jobs in infrastructure and energy with large infusions of government investment supporting the private sector, like the closed Maytag plant employees in Newton, Iowa who shifted to making wind energy generation wind blades at a new plant that the city attracted. See the link. It also points to the need for rapid action from government and a new management at GM that can bring a new vision and the energy to execute it, to transform the auto business that Detroit plans to hold onto....

LyrArc Article Gist
Economist Lawrence Lindsey says the Fed has boxed itself and has little choice but to keep interest rates low. Borrowing at the more normal interest rates of 5.7%- which is what it was over the last three decades- and not at the current 2.5%, would mean an increase in borrowing costs for the U.S. government of $800 billion in 2021, says Lindsay. Lindsay bases this on the U.S. debt growing from $14 trillion in 2011 to $25 trillion by 2021, and interest rates going back to normal levels by 2021. Just to put this in perspective Lindsay says it would require all the cuts Republicans and Rep. Ryan are asking for just to pay for the added interest, not even about reducing the size of the U.S. debt. This would be a disaster for the U.S. Treasury, so we're stuck with really low rates. The term used by economists is "financial repression." Savers and retirees will have to put up with low returns. Lowering unemployment is only one aspect of U.S. Fed policy, the other aspect is in the constraints Bernake faces....

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford's North American operations reported a pretax profit of $1.6 billion for the 3rd quarter 2010. Revenue went up to $16.2 billion from $13.4 billion in the prior year. Ford sold 145,534 F-series pickup trucks, a 25% increase from the same quarter prior year. Worldwide Ford Motor reported a profit of $1.7 billion. Ford will pay down its revolving credit line by $2 billion and will make a cash payment of $3.6 billion this week to cover the last of its health-care trust obligations to Voluntary Employee Beneficiary Association (which covers 195,000 retirees and their spouses). The UAW controls the VEBA trust. These actions will reduce the company's overall debt to $22.8 billon, from $27.3 billion at the end of June 2010.

LyrArc Article Gist
A Prof. at New York University School of Law on why bankruptcy is the only viable option for GM, and his reasoning, including GM's legacy costs hard to get rid of without bankruptcy, the DIP set aside for warranties or a DIP loan for this to reassure customers, and the need for urgency to reduce brands, facilities, plants, dealerships, and have contracts that are realistic for the times, and retiree benefits taken up by the PGBC.

LyrArc Article Gist
Governor Jerry Brown of California retires to an isolated family ranch in Colusa County, an hours drive northwest of Sacramento, the state capital. He is the longest tenured and oldest governor of the state, having held the office when he was younger and then coming back years later to be governor again after becoming Mayor of Oakland. His father was also a famous governor of the state. 

His values of embracing community almost to the point of being tribal were evident in his long years in office. His three years spent at a Jesuit seminary before going to law school also shaped his life. Brown was opposed to embellishment, living in a sort of ascetic way, and was also opposed to a cult of personality. Upto the point that he refused to sign autographs as governor.

Here Miriam Pawell who written a book on the Brown family and how it changed California for the better, looks at the life, times and character of Jerry Brown.

LyrArc Article Gist
Brenner of McGill University and Fridson of S&P say the Bernanke Federal Reserve in the U.S. is doing what President Truman and Treasury Secretary Snyder did in the war and postwar years- paying down the U.S. debt as cheaply as possible by inflating the money supply. There are no new monetary insights here, and even though the policy is maintained outwardly as one to promote economic growth and employment, the main focus is to keep the cost of paying down the debt as cheaply as possible with low rates. This hurts savers and retirees earning very little on savings. They cite Bernanke's writings that show he is imitating the policy of the war years when the U.S. held down interest rates and succeeded in doing this for a decade.

LyrArc Article Gist
Baer and Zuckerman give this friendly account of how a law student from Melbourne found himself a single Australian in New York. He went on to join Morgan Stanley and took over in 2010 at the height of the faulty mortgage financial crisis. His patient attitude and quiet demeanor  stemming from growing up in a family of 10 children helped him take on the responsibilities at the bank when banking was getting a bad name for its responsibility in causing the financial crisis. His mother was a nurse, his father an engineer, both underpaid and stressed professions compared to banking which has caused crisis after crisis in an effort to get outsize rewards. This Australian American later told colleagues, that around the dinner table his middle class parents discussed current events creating an interest in reading and world affairs. We get this as it was our own experience. What has he to say then about both the absence of this middle class today in the way it was, and more than two thirds of American eight graders lacking proficiency levels in reading, 75% lacking proficiency in Civics and History shown in NAEP tests? Not much different in Australia or the British Commonwealth too. His name James Gorman, who now retires at the age of 64. How could he give back by supporting a Movement for Global Literacy, what we have also on this site? Lyrarc.com acts a driver for this much needed literacy in reading comprehension, history and civics. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
After the $2.1 billion buyback of preferred shares from the government GM will have repaid $9.5 billion of its $49.5 billion bailout. GM will still owe the government $40 billion. GM also plans to make a contribution of $6 billion in cash and stock to its underfunded employee pension plans, and a $2.8 billion payment to the United Auto Workers retiree health care trust fund. In total, the actions taken by GM will reduce its debt by about $11 billion and reduce interest by $500 million.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ed Finn, president of Barron's for 19 years from 1998 has observed the economy for decades and comes to the conclusion that the 2007-2008 banking crisis from Reagan style deregulation was the one principal factor the US economy and the people suffered from a lost decade that was extended to 15 years by the pandemic. This has ended under president Biden says Finn, with he says about 10% growth in S&P 500 every year since 2020 and expects growth at that rate for another 4 years under president Biden. What this says about ultra low interest rates is that it was bad for America and a result of the need for tackling the 2009 financial crisis. Interest rates need to be at the moderate level of about 4-5%, the level today, where savers are rewarded, retirees are rewarded, bondholders are rewarded, and excessive risk taking is penalized, says Finn. Moderate interest rates help mortgage holders and new companies start businesses. In short says Finn- this is the way a economy should be run. We were sold the idea of ultra low interest rates because no one wanted to talk about the bad effects of Reagan style deregulation that inevitably lead to lack of the financial oversight of regulatory authorites. Financial oversight by regulatory authorites needed for modern economies to run, whether this is the US, India, China, or any large European economy, it is an essential condition for stable long term growth that serves the needs of the people of every major economy in the world. The idea must be cast aside that economic policy must be determined by the swings in sentiment  every few decades in one direction to too little government from to too much government or reverse, and be determined by essential truths of how a sound and good economy is run. As the US enters 2024 what Powell a Republican, and Biden a Democrat, and the bipartisan group of Senators in the US Congress are saying is that we get it, and are with single minded determination making it happen. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Greek leader Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza party, the Coalition of the Radical Left, talks to Angelos and Granitsas of the Journal. He says it is in the interests of the European Union to continue funding to Greece, but if the EU stops the funding Greece will stop paying its debt. It will then use the funds going to the debt burden for paying retirees and workers. And it will also tear up the loan agreements signed earlier, and scrap plans for layoff of 150,000 workers in the government services by 2015. He would also reverse measures to lower private sector wages. He also looks favorably on nationalizing banks to better channel lending to where its needed. In his view it will be difficult for Greece either way. Even with funding Greece's GDP is expected to fall 5-7% in 2012, following several years of declining GDP.

LyrArc Article Gist
New rules by the Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) and Moody's would show U.S. public pension funds as about 57% funded instead of 75% funded under earlier rules. This will open up an even wider gap in how much they have in the funds and their promises to retirees to about an estimated $2.2 trillion. This puts pressure on state and local governments to either reduce benefits for new hires, have workers increase contributions, or set aside more money from the budget. Local governments face the risk of credit downgrades and higher borrowing costs if no action is taken and finances are worsening. An example is Illinois retired teachers who earn annual pensions of about $46,000 on average, and do not participate in Social Security under state opt-out. Even under old accounting rules this pension fund had $37 billion of assets and $81 in future liabilities. Under the new rules the unfunded liabilities could jump to 83% by one estimate, from over 50%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The reduced availability of child care services, longer time it takes to get steady jobs in a slow growth economy, and the "safety trap" of becoming used to a freer lifestyle, areincreasing the average age at which Italian women have their first child. It has moved up from about 30 to 31.4 in 2012. As more women pursue higher education and get university degrees the trend is to focus on jobs and lifestyle. As grandparents get older and the lack of enough preschool centers this makes child care harder, in a nation where 68% of children under 10 are still cared for by grandparents. At present only half of Italian mothers work, according to the OECD, compared to 74% in France. This worsens the demographics with currently 150 people over 65 years for the 100 under 14 years, and the figures increasing with fewer young people to support retirees, according to Istat.

LyrArc Article Gist
The emergence of the Greens Party in Germany as a party that could govern at the federal level. In Baden-Wurttemburg, a western state with many large companies, the Greens emphasized foresight and pragmatism to win the election. Analysis by ARD broadcster suggests 145,000 voters from CDU migrated to the Greens after corruption scandals led to resignation of CDU members in the Bundestag. One of the problems The Greens face is the relative youth of leaders at the federal level. Robert Habeck is 51 years and Annalena Baerbock is 40 years.  For Angela Merkel who retires in the autumn, and the CDU with its new leader Armin Laschet, the results are a bit of a shock. The CDU gained about 24 to 28% of the vote in 2 state elections. The SPD socialist party was at about 16%. So that the 2 parties that governed Germany since 1950 are combined now at about 40%-42% of the vote.  New coalitions will be formed in the future that include The Greens as a major political party. SDP's Scolz clearly welcomed this idea saying that it is now possible to form a government without the CDU. For Germany the coronavirus years 2020-2021 mark the beginning of a new period that may no longer include the CDU or Merkel in government. Popular fatigue with the Christian Democrats and search for new alternatives for Germany now make a new Greens led coalition a distinct possibility. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A trust for United Auto Workers Union retirees sold 89 million GM shares in the GM IPO, yielding $2.9 billion.

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ report shows how retirement looks in America from the financial and lifestyle aspects. The median net worth for people 65-74 years is about $266,000 compared to an average net worth of 5 times that of $1.2 million for this group. This means wealth is highly skewed in America today with a small percentage of high wealth group pushing the average up this much- a result of neglect of American manufacturing that sharply reduced income and savings security of working families, and the impact of laissez faire policies of the administrations since the 1970's with financial crises hurting workers and families. The impact of wars was also borne heavily by workers and families with the neglect of infrastructure and public services in a misallocation of the nation's wealth.  Other points of note are the way time is spent today in retirement with less educational activity or volunteer work than one would imagine, and not enough time for exercize. Only a miniscule amount of time goes to volunteer work (.17 hours) or reading (.57 hours) compared to watching television (4.50 hours) for retirees. Exercize that keeps people healthy one would expect it to go up in retirement only shows .29 hours. Arts and entertainment or cultural activities only 0.05 hours, people are lonelier spending less time with each other with 0.57 hours for socializing and communicating. All showing how Americans in retirement can do better and live better lives by increasing the amount of time they spend in these healthy activities and less on television. Television which is also a sedentary activity takes up 3 times all the other activities essential for healthy living just mentioned combined. Little or no time is spent in meditation, mindfulness or mental wellness, as this grouped under prayer shows only .07 hours or just a few minutes a day.  Small changes that are made in the right direction would do much good for the quality of living for all Americans. Combined with an effort for the renewal of infrastructure and public services this would be an effort in the right direction, contributing to the well being of America.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Isaacson's new book on Musk says Musk's story is a cautionary tale. The compulsion to be drama magnet or mean are not prized traits, say others.  More sinister (the hell) is celebrating a culture that does not respect the need for worklife balance, of respect for nutrition and exercize for good health. Musk's methods which he calls "algorithm", a word known more for obscurity than meaning, are nothing new. For years as the US, Japan and China, now India have innovated there is a focus on simplifying things, and to do this questioning the existing way of doing things by breaking down the existing method into pieces and reorganizing the pieces of the puzzle leaving out unneeded pieces. What is the key to his success as it was for Jobs at Apple is creating a culture in which people would invest in and take risks for innovation at the high end of the price spectrum. Jobs used design and new stuff like the iPod and iPad, iPhone to do this. Musk does this through playing the role of a social media icon but a dangerous one that does not respect worklife balance and good health habits of nutrition, exercize and mindfulness. In processes this can give you a process that takes less time and money- how India's moon mission and rover Chandrayan 3 was done for $78 million showing these work practices of Musk are nothing new, and universally adopted by successful companies and nations. Newer ask your employees to do what you would not do, is also adopted by the best managers. By turning it into a mantra it obscures the fact that America today is a country of massive inequalities where two thirds of 4th graders cannot pass ACT reading test and half of retirees have zero savings, working people and families face a cost of living and health crisis and are badly neglected. How does it help to role model as an icon and popularize a culture that tolerates and accepts such conditions that would leave men deeply troubled, including America's leaders Washington, Lincoln and FDR if they were alive today. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
According to the Center of Automotive Research about 600,000 jobs in the midwestern states and about 3.6 million jobs counting industries that depend on the automotive industry are at stake in the failure of the Big Three auto companies. Even if one of the companies goes into bankruptcy Chapter 11 taxpayers will be on the hook for millions in retiree benefits from that company. Even with a merger of Chrysler and GM the auto companies in Detroit do not look like they can handle a deep recession and protracted dowturn. Which is why it looks increasingly likely that the federal government will have to keep the midwestern economies from sinking with the failure of any of the Detroit automakers.

LyrArc Article Gist
David Brooks says the Paul Ryan Budget proposal is a bold step forward that is badly needed in this debate on health care, even though it has some grave weaknesses which need to be corrected. It is a bold step forward because he says Democrats say they want no middle class tax increases, or are not willing to say what kinds of tax increases they support, and yet they believe the Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security programs are worth preserving. This is'nt based on reality. He cites the weaknesses, beginning with the one discussed in David Leonhardt's column in the New York Times on April 7, 2011. Too many Americans pay too little into Medicare taxes and expect to collect several hundred thousand dollars more in Medicare benefits. The example given in Leonhardt's column is from a study that shows 56 year olds with average earnings pay about $140,000 in dedicated Medicare taxes over a lifetime, and then go on to collect $430,000 in benefits. Middle class and affluent boomers can't get off paying their share like everybody else. Its just the right way for their children and the nation's children. Ryan's plan excludes older people reaching retirement in ten years. The other major weakness is that the cuts are too deep. Things like the Pell grants which Ryan proposes to cut back to 2008 levels need to be preserved, and more money has to go into science, education and research and early childhood education for the U.S. to be competitive with China and India. The Ryan proposal places cuts that would be required so that tax revenues need to be at 18% of GDP. The number where a larger consensus exists is for tax revenues at 20% of GDP (also supported by business and the Wall Street Journal's editorial columns). This would preserve programs that are most productive for the economic future of the U.S. Ryan's proposal lets the hope for reducing costs of medical care rest entirely on future retirees deciding how much medical care (tests, procedures etc) they consume through larger cost sharing. Yet a structure and framework is needed to manage these costs effectively, and some combination of incentives to retirees to control costs and an effective structural framework is needed. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The artificial nature of the target of debt to GDP of 120% for Greece in 2020. This is the target being followed in negotiations by the troika of the ECB, IMF and the EU. Experts say the sustainable level would be much lower for Greece -this would be much lower because of the aging population in Greece and lower level of workers to support retirees in future years, the inefficient tax collection system and poor prospects for changing it, the degree of control over monetary policy and the rate of change of debt. A recent study by the Bank for International Settlements shows debt sustainability at 85% after studying 18 countries from 1980 to 2010. No precise source has been found for the 120% target. An IMF Report in 2011 said the 120% was the "maximum level considered sustainable." Alan Auerbach at UC Berkeley and Michael Woodford at Columbia University, say the additional factors are relevant to Greece. The many unpredictables over the course of ten years is another serious difficulty.

LyrArc Article Gist
The IPO is expected to bring $10 billion and reduce the government's stake to below 50%. The IPO plans for the shares to go for between $26 and $29. For the government to breakeven the shares have to rise to about $50. GM plans to sell 24% of its total shares for $10 billion at the midpoint of the estimated share price. Under the plan, Treasury would sell $7 billion of its shares cutting its stake to 35% from 61%. The UAW trust which pays for retiree health care, would sell $2 billion of its shares. Canada and Ontario would sell about $1 billion of their shares. The government will try to recoup some of the $49.5 billion given to GM.

LyrArc Article Gist
Reno, Nevada, has  high unemployment and high housing costs. The shift of higher income people from California to Reno, and the building of a mega Tesla plant in the area have pushed up housing costs. The population of Reno in Washoe County increased by 25 percent or 100,000 since 2019. With casino hotels the employees incomes lag behind high grocery costs. Housing takes a larger share of the household budget so that many people are living on the edge. One retiree sees rent for a 2 bedroom home go up to $1600, leaving $600 for groceries. He uses a mobile food bank parked outside a middle school. Food bank officials says they serve 155,000 people, up 70% since 2019. A retired electrician says his electric bill has doubled to $300 leaving less from a $1500 social security check. Comparing 2023 to 2019- Rents jumped 34% in Reno, in the US it was 28%. An average home jumped 43% from $383,000 to $549,000. ...