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The Wall Street Journal in a recent editorial called the European Union's June 2011 plan for Greece "the French Deception," because it favored French and German banks but made Greece's debt burden even less manageable. The Economist views the European Union actions with disdain and says they are sure to fail. It is skeptical whether the spending cuts will work because Greece's politicians are not likely to address the problems of poor tax and other payments collection, and is too interconnected with favored groups and lobbies to be able to take the needed actions. And spending cuts will fall hard on ordinary Greeks. Even with job cuts the sense is that it will fall not on full time civil servants with permanent contracts but people with temporary contracts. The Economist cites the example of items such as the overgenerous markup allowed for pharmacists that adds another 1.5 billion euros to the budget which will remain untouched as an example of many such items where the cuts will not fall because of strong lobbies and favored interests. The privatization scheme is deemed unrealistic because it expects to raise 51 billion euros in a crash sale of assets, which only makes it more likely that assets could fall into the hands of cronies with the right connections. The current efforts only make ordinary Greeks worse off with spending cuts and new taxes. The negative impact on economic growth of the austerity cuts creates the prospect for a deeper recession, political turmoil, and a debt default....

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Veering between reckless intervention and doing nothing has led to some of the problems the US faces even today.  Barrack Obama created the hope for Arab Spring at Cairo University in 2009, which he failed to follow up on. Ronald Reagan and his Arab envoy Donald Rumsfeld, Defense minister Weinberger, supported a reckless intervention on the Iraq side against Iran in 1980 after winning the election following the capture of hostages in the American Embassy in Iran. Reagan was reckless in such intervention not understanding what was happening in a religious sectarian and Arab Socialist ideologies war in which US interests were not involved. Le Monde of France recounts how Barrack Obama hesitated to followup on his warnings in 2011 after the Arab Spring. This led to Obama doing nothing in the face of just what he had stated at Cairo University of people "having the ability of speaking their mind and having say in how they are governed," and US intention "we will support them everywhere." Another instance of no action was with a failed state situation and  millions of refugees in Venezuela after a Bolivarist Chavez ideological economic collapse similar in some ways to Arab ideologies Iraq and Syria. US did not follow the Monroe Doctrine on non intervention of foreign European powers on the American continents. Obama's speech and then inaction may be at the root of today's problems of migration and the divisions it has caused. Millions of Syrian refugees left for Greece, Hungary and Germany in 2015-2016. It was followed by Brexit again on migration. And in 2016 migration and the Border in the US election. And again in 2022 and 2024 the Border and migration the big issue in the US election. In a speech at Cairo University in 2009 during a visit to Egypt. Obama said: "I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere." On September 11, 2012 following the death of Libyan dictator Muammar Khadafi and the beginning of civil war in Libya, the Libyan mission in Benghazi was attacked with US ambassador Christopher Stevens killed just 2 months before the US presidential election.  Faced with use of chemical weapons Obama issued a warning to Syrian regime in Damascus- then following the Libyan experience did nothing. Le Monde cites an interview with president Hollande of France in 2015 who expressed his frustration with France willing to act.  Obama underestimated the ISIS in the region says Le Monde, leading to the situation by 2015 of the eastern part of the country linked to the region around Mosul going under ISIS. By 2016 the problem of ISIS was left to next US president DJT to tackle by Obama, a result of the inaction in 2012-2013 on Syria, says Le Monde. And like Angela Merkel in Germany on migration, Barrack Obama simply rationalized his action, with the US and the EU left to tackle the results of these actions.     ...

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After denying clearances for development projects for three decades, the Indian Supreme Court green bench of Justices Gavai and Vikram Nath clears 118 development projects already delayed for 5 years for pending litigation. 118 projects were cleared, including 15 held up for 10 years, based on the "sustainable development" idea that takes a look at the bigger picture, the aspirations of youth, and the bigger possibilities for renewables and environment with a bigger economy. It shows how India which at one time in 1990 had about the same GDP as China, has today one fifth the GDP of China, and with it lacks the same scale of investment for renewable energy and climate change action that China has because of China's larger economy. In this sense the whole country of 1.2 billion Indians, including hundreds of millions of farmers and urban residents, the Supreme Court and India's institutions, have suffered more than the one lost decade the prime minister referred to in the Budget session of parliament. It is more like three decades since China pushed ahead after 1990. China having suffered from the Japanese invasion and civil war for three decades in the 1920-49 period and three decades of drift in economic direction following 1949. India faced its own period of failed governance that matches the failures in China by 1990. The SC bench stated- "The Supreme Court is flooded with applications after applications, seeking permissions to construct primary schools, public health centers, anganwadi centers, an other public utility buildings in remote areas. Himachal Pradesh is constrained to approach the Supreme Court even for seeking permission to connect villages in remote areas by roads. Needless to state, the citizens residing in the remote areas cannot be deprived of the developmental activities that are being done in other parts of the country."  The Supreme Court called it ridiculous that the states were required to rush to the Supreme Court to do the minimal developmental activities.  That the Supreme Court and other institutions have taken so long to say and do this is itself one of the reasons India has fallen behind China. It will need to accelerate its efforts, in the way that the rest of the country and the world is doing to create an environment in which development can meet the aspirations of the Indian people. Efforts for climate change action can take place at the same time with bigger investment capabilities from the larger economy and advanced technological capabilities. The two can and do go together, a point missed for far too long.  An approach even the US has grasped and is doing under president Biden. The US has gone through its own period of failed governance for four decades of neglect of manufacturing and infrastructure that president Biden talked about in his State of the Union address to the US Congress last week.  Biden now sees the problem itself as an opportunity to get it right. So can India.   ...

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The shift of voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in the South such as Georgia and South Carolina, and the Deep South such as Mississippi and Alabama, started in the sixties with the civil rights movement. Reagan tapped into it by making his first post convention trip to Alabama, where George Wallace had already worked up white southern voters on segregation in the way Trump is doing today on immigration. Strom Thurmond was one of the high profile southerners shifting from Dixiecrat Democrat to Republican in South Carolina. After Thurmond in the fifties the Republican formula was to mix cultural issues with economic conservatism, with Nixon, then Reagan, and then Bush. Reagan added religious conservatives to the cause. Now says Emory University Prof. Joseph Crespino, this is changing as the more educated college educated white collar professionals that Goldwater once appealed to shifting in 2016 to the Democratic Party in places like Georgia and South Carolina. This is a result of the rhetoric of Trump resembling that of George Wallace and Thurmond in the Deep South. With demographic changes there is also new infusion of people from the North to the South in major urban areas. The result in 2016 is that the South no longer appears the way it once was. ...

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This article in the Economist points to polls showing women with college degrees favoring Clinton over Trump by large margins of 57% to 38%. A Brookings Institution expert says this could translate into a gain of 4 million voters for Clinton. Many of these voters overlap with suburban women. The Clinton campaign has presented Trump as one who could not be relied on to have responsibility for the U.S. nuclear weapons because of a volatile temperament. Other experts point to concern by women of what the anti-women comments by Trump would do to the condition of women in the workplace.

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Attorney General Sessions says the driver of the car who drove into protesters could be prosecuted in a number of ways including for a hate crime. The protest was against a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville. A car driven by 20 year old James Alex Fields drove into protesters injuring 19 and killing one woman. The local charges being made are for hit and run, malicious wounding, and the Justice Department is conducting its own probe. The comments by Sessions contrasted with the statement blaming both sides by president Trump, which led to strong criticism in the media and by the business community.

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With tumbling popularity of Trump among college educated suburban voters, especially women, elections in suburbs of San Diego, Kansas City, Orlando, Minneapolis and other cities , where Mitt Romney won handily in 2012 are now competitive. This report in the NYT says Trump is so unpopular in these areas that Trump is at risk of losing by double digits in such places.

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Obama is not going to shy away from developing a solution for the 12 million estimated illegal immigrants in the country, for some form of path to legal staus. The issue will be taken up this year. It does not have the same priorities as health care and energy and education, but as a human issue it will be addressed this year. The lives of people who are doing a lot of the work Americans normally do not want to do is entertwined with the economic crisis, as the lives of these immigrants are likely to be made even more difficult by this crisis. The idea is to give those who are here, and as it appears are likely to remain here, and their families, the opportunity to lead normal lives. Not see families broken or torn apart as a husband or wife has status and the other does not, or lives worsen for those who have done the menial and labor intensive jobs in factories, agriculture and in construction, that Americans born to parents from an earlier generation of immigrants do not wish to do because they have better opportunities. As it is an issue that has drawn opposition and aroused emotions, it will be tackled by framing it as "policy reform that controls immigration and makes it an orderly system." Rep. Gutierrez, who is from Chicago, is building support for the cause by speaking at churches around the country, and having church leaders speak at these meetings, in a movement that is reminiscent of the civil rights struggles for black people. Mr. Obama will speak publicly on the issue in May, in the summer he will convene working groups, including lawmakers from both sides and a range of immigration groups, to begin discussing possible legislation by early fall. The plan would not add new workers but normalize the living conditions of people already here, and who information shows are not returning home. Its also supported by a key and growing constituency in American politics, the Hispanic voters. It was a campaign promise that Obama intends to keep, and if successful only draws the Hispanic vote closer to Obama....

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As the deadline of July 22 approaches for the 160,000 members of the UK Conservative Party to elect a leader, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and the current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt are running for the leadership position. Boris Johnson has 68% member support with Hunt at 23%, according to YouGov survey. Both candidates are in favor of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement. Hunt has stated he would cancel leave for Britain's 16,000 civil servants in August to prepare for the departure of Britain from the EU by October 31.  Only 27% of Conservative Party members believe Mr. Hunt can do the preparation needed for an abrupt exit after 45 years of economic integration with the European Union. By contrast 90% of members think Johnson would do the preparation needed. Preparation is needed because of food and medical supplies trucks and in flights awaiting customs at border points. The result could be chaotic without adequate preparation. Under a Johnson government many ministers would leave the government including Mr. Hammond who runs the finance ministry. He is expected to join rebel ranks in the Conservative Party that does not think an abrupt exit like this is good for Britain. If these members in the House of Commons join Labour party members they could vote to block this from happening. Britain's opposition Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn has finally decided to call for a second referendum if Johnson pushes to leave the EU abruptly, and to campaign wholeheartedly this time for staying inside the EU. During the last referendum Labour leaders did not push hard for Remain, and David Cameron as prime minister and head of the Conservatives proved to be a weak and ineffective leader using the promise of a referendum as a ploy to win votes for the Conservatives in an earlier election and then finding himself stuck with promises made in the election with his party's right wing led by Johnson. Years of austerity policies promoted by Germany in the EU after a flawed entry of southern European countries with faulty not transparent finances such as Greece too early  into the eurozone had soured Britons on the EU. The friendly migration policies of German leader Merkel for economic as well as war torn country migrants from North Africa finally not just soured Germans on Merkel policies but also soured British working class families struggling to make ends meet and seeing migration as taking British resources that were needed at home. This has split most of Europe including Britain along lines of the major cities and the rural areas plus smaller towns, and in Eastern Europe, East Germany region along the lines of the old Soviet bloc countries which with deeply conservative thinking do not favor such migration policies. These divisive changes have taken place over along period of decades and will take time to heal through economic recovery and a fairer distribution of wealth, better investment in infrastructure, health, education, public services, neglected during the Tech driven flawed investment diversion of economic resources. Yet the hope of this type of change if grasped by Britons as well as Europeans could bring new life and revive the vision of a Europe with shared benefits for all Europeans, not just a French-German project. For this to happen new leaders have to rise to the challenge inside Britain and the rest of Europe.      ...

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A professor from Harvard's Kennedy school describes the Hungarians failure to remember the 1956 Hungarian uprising crushed by the Soviet Union as migrants suffering enormous hardship make their way to Keleti train station in Budapest, Hungary. The Orban government in Hungary refused to let migrants take trains to Austria and Germany. Chancellor Merkel said the Schengen Agreement allowing free movement itself was being called into question. The Orban government later relented and put migrants on buses to Vienna. Throughout this crisis as media showed pictures of the hardships suffered by migrants, and chancellor Merkel assured asylum for hundreds of thousands of migrants, Obama and Harper were silent on the issue. The appalling numbers tell the story, says Ignatieff- with about 1500 for the U.S. and 166 for the UK, according to news reports. He is very critical of Obama, Cameron and Harper, representing the U.S., UK, and Canada, for doing so little.

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The Obama administration announced a policy of increasing the number of refugees accepted in fiscal 2017 to 110,000. This will be an increase from 85,000 in 2016, and 70,000 in the prior 3 years. Secretary of State Kerry says the target is consistent  with the idea that all countries need to do more, and if we could do more we would. After 3 years of cautious policy president Obama now follows Chancellor Merkel's lead.

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Father Hesburgh became president of Notre Dame in 1952, at the age of 35, when Notre Dame was a small university known for football and theological studies. He greatly increased the size of the university, hiring new faculty, increasing the endowment fund from $9 million to $350 million, and changed polcies so that women were admitted in 1972. The endowment fund is now $9 billion. Father Hesburgh played a prominent role in the U.S. and was close to presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, Reagan, Carter and Clinton. By the time he retired in 1986 after 35 years as president of Notre Dame, he was considered the most effective university president in the country, and the most influential priest in the U.S. He fought for civil rights, for peaceful protest on campus, and brought lay control through a secular board to run Notre Dame. In all these issues he stood up for his progressive views when faced by opposition from the Vatican and the U.S. government. Following the Second Vatican Council of the mid 1960's, Father Hesburgh initiated greater involvement of lay Catholics in the Mass and practices of the Church. At a meeting in Land O'Lakes, Wisconsin, 1967, a group of Catholic educators led by Hesburgh put forward the position that the pursuit of truth should be the ultimate aim of Catholic higher education in the U.S., not religious indoctrination. In this way Father Hesburgh created a new level of credibility and respect for Catholic based education in the U.S. Ironically Father Hesburgh was not a big football fan and refused to pose for a picture of him with a football, insisting that collegiate sports not influence higher education. His passion from his early years was to be a chaplain in the U.S. Navy. In fact he had to be dissuaded from going to the Navy as a chaplain in 1943, to stay on campus at Notre Dame to train naval officers during the war. Hesburgh was born in Syracuse in 1917 to an executive at Pittsburgh Plate Glass Company, and studied at the seminary on Notre Dame campus and in Rome for advanced degrees in philosophy and theology. He died in 2015 at the age of 97, having placed a large imprint on the shape of American higher education in the twentieth century. ...

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Cohn and Monkovic of the NYT show how the shift of blacks, hispanics, and white collar professionals is doing to the demographics in the eastern, coastal and southern states, and how this will impact 2016 and future presidential elections in the U.S. This includes North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Virginia, and Florida. It means the electoral map may have changed by 2016 and 2020, as the less educated voters in rural areas are balanced by a growing minority and white collar vote in the suburbs and major cities of the South.

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The debate in Germany on admitting refugees intensifies after the attacks in Cologne. Austria limits its refugee acceptance to 37,500 for 2016, sharply down from the 90,000 admitted in 2015. Chancellor Merkel is under pressure to reduce the numbers of refugees for 2016.