LyrArc Article Gist
Mark Fields and the efforts to improve margins at Ford Motor Company. Ford's global operating margins at 6% lagged behind the 9% margins at VW and Hyundai in 2011. Ford is sixth among all automakers in profits earned on each vehicle sold..The difficulties in Europe, and fears of a slowdown in the American market create new pressures at Ford.

LyrArc Article Gist
Auto production is expected to increase by 7.5% in the third quarter of 2011, according to IHS Automotive. This could boost GDP by half to one percentage point in the third quarter say economists.

LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT editorial says the negative feedback loop of foreclosures begetting falling house prices, which beget more foreclosures, and further weaken banks, is well under way. One way to have broken this, was to enable good types of loan modifications, which reduce the principal for homeowners and reduce payments significantly. Sheila Bair at FDIC says 32% of prior payments is about the right amount. The bad types of loan modifications that lead to no reduction in principal, and put homeowners back in redefault because of large payments that homeowners "under water" or a lost job cannot afford, have so far been the dominant kind of loan modification. At present 14 million homeowners are "under water," in that their homes are worth less than what is owed on the mortgage. One of the crucial measures which would have enabled this, has not been pushed by the Obama administration through Congress. This was to pass an amendment that allowed bankruptcy judges to modify troubled mortgages. Banks which have taken billions of dollars in loans from the federal government were allowed to lobby aggressively to kill this amendment, and the Obama administration did little to push this amendment in Congress. 12 Senate Democrats joined 39 Senate Republicans to block a vote on the amendment. Says the NYT editorial "when the time came to stand up to the banking lobbies and cajole yes votes from reluctant senators-the White House did'nt. When the measure failed there wasn't even a statement of regret." This could turn out to be a major mistake, because as the NYT points out voluntary loan modifications have shown poor results. The administration's plan to provide incentives for loan modification is untried and tested, and may not produce significant results. With 14 million homeowners under water, and spiralling foreclosures, the situation may get out of control and seriously damage the economy. After the moratorium in home foreclosures ended there is expected to be a big surge in foreclosures, with estimates of 290,000 to 341,000 foreclosures in March, 2009. If this is allowed to continue it will undo all the good work in other areas, the stimulus spending, rebuilding the auto industry and other steps. It will also be more difficult to reverse as valuable time passes and the cost of the crisis escalates. A consensus among many experts was that stronger action in connection with the banks was required, and Martin Feldstein has warned about the danger posed by foreclosures since early 2008, see links....

LyrArc Article Gist
The components in the 6.1% drop in GDP for 1st quarter 2009, from the prior quarter. See the all important graph that shows how things in the breakdown look, and how the economy is behaving, and how it might behave in the future. What is the impact of a10% drop in world trade? For the US which was abig importer, the last 2 quarters saw a shift in consumer buying habits, as economy became the norm, and frugality was in. Imports drop by 6.05%. But exports drop too, with fewer purchases of products the USA makes. THis drop was 4.06%. Consumer spending collapsed in the 4th quarter of 2008. A rebound ocurred in the 1st quarter 2009, as consumer confidence improved as aresult of strong government intervention through the $787 billion stimulus bill, and the new budget that funded priorities in health, education and energy, and supported local governments spending. Consumer spending went up by 1.5%. Residential investment went down by close to the same amount - 1.36%. What was happening in manufacturing capacity utilization. This dropped as inventories were run down, and the change in inventories was a drop of 2.79%. The feeling here is that as inventories were run down there is now the prospect of increasing production and capacity utilization. But unemployment and job losses are not figured into this, and the unknown impact of the new frugaility of the American consumer as it sets in in earnest. If consumer spending remains sluggish, then there is less prospect for increasing capacity utilization. Manufacturing capacity will either be reduced as plants close as in the auto industry, or it will remain unused. And the prospect of exports picking up the slack is remote. This gets one to the crux of the matter which is declining investment in buildings, and equipment. As businesses pull back and lay off employees, a process that will continue for many quarters into 2010 and beyond, with credit tight and demand sluggish at best, the prospect here is of large contribution to negative GDP numbers in the future. For 2009 1st quarter the decline in nonresidential investment was 4.68%, the largest component and the decisive part impacting jobs and production....

LyrArc Article Gist
Lagging growth in GDP per capita, productivity growth, in Italy, with small family business unwilling to take risks for growth, and bureaucratic hurdles for business. To get an idea how Italy has lagged severely behind other countries in Europe, consider that GDP per capita increased by 28% in Spain, and 22% in France, compared to only 8% in Italy during the 20 year period 1993-2013, according to the Conference Board. Productivity growth measured by GDP per hour worked for Italy showed growth of only 13% in that 20 year period, compared to 30% in France and 23% in Spain. Since the 2008 global financial crisis the Italian economy has shrunk by 9% and growth is barely 1% in 2014. During 1993-2003 top performers Germany showed 31% increase in GDP per capita and 32% increase in productivity growth, the UK showed 44% increase in GDP per capita and 38% in productivity growth. Because of slowing population growth GDP growth has to come from productivity increases in Europe. France is the strongest in terms of productivity with $59 of GDP per hour worked, UK $51, and Germany $57. Italy at $45 has fallen behind Spain at $50. Conference Board statistics show GDP per capita in inflation adjusted, purchasing power adjusted 2013 dollars at $35,847 for France, $40,868 for Germany, $30,145 for Spain, $39,904 for Britain, and Italy lagging behind at $31,386. Most of the gains were made before 1993 for Italy, whereas Spain surged in the period after 1993 only slowing after 2008. The struggles in the U.S. auto industry showed how well meaning changes for labor in the early postwar period if not adapted to changes in the global economy decades later can lead to sharp decline before adjustment is made. In Italy well meaning labor laws in the early postwar period not adapted to changes in the global economy decades later, combined with cultural behaviour of entrenched group interests, and a bureaucratic government, have stifled growth and productivity....

LyrArc Article Gist
Proof that this is not an ordinary deep recession like those in the post war period comes in the way foreign trade is reacting in this downturn. Already evidence of this has been seen in the way Germany has been affected because of slowing exports from China to the US. German exports to China have declined as the Chinese export model comes under severe stress. A similiar situation is playing out for Japan. Now new proof of the drop in foreign trade is emerging in Commerce Department figures. Combined exports and imports of the USA dropped 18% in 4 months July to November, to $326 billion from $398 billion. Two thirds of this drop was in imports. So China and Japan's exports to the USA are severely affected. Japan showed a 27% decline in exports in November, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and imports dived 14%. According to calculations by the WSJ, Germany had 11.8% decline in foreign trade in November, and similiar numbers for France and Britain. Chief US Economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, says this is going to be the worst global recession since World War II. Combined with what is happening to inventories, (see links) and what is happening in housing, banking, the auto industry, and other industries, the complications of non-transparent packaged financial products clogging the American financial system, the hugely indebted consumer (see links), and the $2.1 trillion and rising cost of the stimulus and bailouts needed by one estimate, suggest that the recovery forecast for 2009-2010 does not take into account all these simultaneously occurring patterns and developments working together. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Only 1.9 million hourly workers in manufacturing now earn more than $20 per hour, its down 60% since 1979, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Of all hourly workers in every sector of the economy the percentage of people earning more than $20 per hour shrunk to 18% in 2008 from 23% in 1979, thus losing some of the gains the US made since World War II which helped build the American middle class. One can see this unwinding clearly in the auto industry as wages are being reduced to match nonunion Japanese plants, and the industry itself is going through a huge downsizing fast. The hourly work force totals 76 million or 52% of all workers ranging from managers and professionals to factory and construction workers to technicians, educators and sales people. The wages of salaried workers show a similiar trend but are not converted into hourly amounts. As the numbers for 2007 are at the point where the economy was still booming, the path ahead as things go through a steep downturn can only have serious implications such as a slow recovery for demand in 2010. If a number of trends converge, employers shift to part time employment, auto related workers downshift to lower wages and benefits, shift to nonunion plants in the south or the midwest, and work is offshored or outsourced, this could worsen effects on consumption for years ahead especially with the credit remaining tight and consumers paying off old debt. Frank Levy, a labor economist at MIT, says that all this is happening wihtout a political debate or discussion, as people are worried more about having a job, and only secondly about what it pays and whether they are losing ground. Even the Pennsylvania primary debate, says Levy, between Hillary Clinton and Obama was conducted without quantifying the decline, and no one mentioned the eroding of the $20 per hour wage. What happened to support the consumption and support imports, was to pay for consumption by going into debt or refinancing the home. This has implications that range from the future of export industries in China's booming coastal sector, to how long the recovery drags on, and to what the future would look like....

LyrArc Article Gist
Michigan is the only state in the US with a population decline. The population went down by 0.6% in the 2010 census. Michigan suffered during the decline of the auto industry in the last decade.

LyrArc Article Gist
The increased availability of car loans and eased standards for auto loans has played a large part in rising auto sales in the U.S. Annual sales of cars and light trucks maintained a pace of 14.1 million vehicles in July 2012, and could reach 15 million for 2012. Lenders see the car loan market as more profitable and less risky than mortgage lending because of the shorter periods of the loans- 3 to 5 years and the low default rate. Currently only about 2.52% of auto loans are 30 days past due for second quarter 2012, according to Experian. Auto loans outstanding at the end of the 2nd quarter 2012, are $725 billion, according to the automotive division of Experian, up 5.7% from a year ago. The market for securities backed by auto loans has rebounded since the 2008 financial crisis. About $50 billion in bonds backed by auto loans were issued in the Jan-July 2012 period, according to Dealogic, compared to $53 billion in 2011. To get a picture of how this compares with mortgage securities- auto loan backed securities are up 33% above pre 2006 levels, and mortgage backed securities are about 70% below 2006 levels. A recent Fed survey of bank lending officials shows easing lending standards reported by 20% of respondents for the last 3 months for auto loans, compared to 3% for prime residential mortgages and 11% for credit cards....

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford gains market share in California, as Toyota and Honda's share of the market declines. Ford's market share is up 2 percentage points on the east and west coasts compared to 5 years ago, according to R.L. Polk data. The Ford Fusion sales for the first half of 2013 are up 18% over the prior year and exceed 300,000. Growth in the coastal U.S. markets comes from the 2013 Fusion, the C-Max, hybrids, and the redesigned Escape. Cars and crossovers are especially important in coastal markets. In the past Ford depended mostly on SUV sales in the midwestern markets with imports dominant in coastal markets. This is now changing with models like the Fusion and hyrids introduced by Ford. With it the image of Ford is also changing, as buyers in California are among the most affluent and culturally influential in setting trends.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jenna Wortham asks the question do tech companies have undue influence in Washington especially when they are pursuing their own ecosystem expansion, citing an example from Facebook app Free Basics. There is another question that comes with the election campaigns of Sanders, Trump and Clinton, and issues of upward mobility. With this issue raised also by Janet Yellen of the U.S. Federal Reserve of the loss of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. at a conference in Oct. 2014. This question is whether the tech world in California can be sensitive to the problems of cities depending on manufacturing in the midwest and the eastern U.S. that are recovering from deep recession, because the environments are so different. Working in the tech world in California is so different from the rest of the country, almost a different way of life. It also has deep political implications, because the priorities are different. Sometimes as with the TPP trade agreement they may conflict- this includes an industry such as the auto industry that also is incorporating technology at an accelerating pace and which has employed many times more people than does the tech industry in California, and in many states. This leads to president Obama's support for the TPP trade agreement, an agreement which analysis by some experts shows is more beneficial to the tech industry in California than to the auto industry in the midwestern states. The NYT's Krugman says overall for the U.S. it is marginally helpful as most of the gains in free trade are already behind us. See Lyrarc using search terms-Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, Trans Pacific Partnership. Yet it remains a mystery why president Obama has made it a part of his legacy, when Hillary Clinton realizing the issues in this election has clearly stated she will not support it. It has other implications as well, as it has given rise to demagogic rhetoric in this election, where other issues far more significant such as the condition of western democracy are at stake. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Improving performance of Toyota, Nissan and Honda in the U.S., Japan and emerging markets. Japanese automakers report higher profits in the fiscal fourth quarter. Sales for 2012 are expected to quadruple for Toyota in the 2012 fiscal year compared to fiscal 2011, according to analyst estimates. Part of the recovery is from weakening of the yen from 75 to the U.S. dollar in October 2011 to 81 in the March-April 2012 period. Profit margins are expected to improve for Toyota from 1.5% to 5.1% for Toyota, 5.4% to 7% for Nissan and 2.5% to 6.8% for Honda.

LyrArc Article Gist
Toyota showed a net profit of 290 billion yen or $3.71 billion for its fiscal first quarter. With its sharp rebound Toyota keeps it forecast of net profit of 760 billion yen, operating profit of 1 trillion yen, and sales of 22 trillion yen for the fiscal year through March 2013. Toyota set its annual production for the calendar year at 9.76 million vehicles, an increase of 23% over the prior year. By comparison General Motors showed second quarter profit of $1.85 billion, a decline of 38% from the prior year quarter, and Ford at 1.04 billion, a decline of 57%, with both companies showing losses in Europe. Toyota has smaller European sales as part of total sales. In the U.S. market Toyota expects market share to reach 14%, an increase of 1.1% from 2011, according to Takahiko Ijichi, senior managing officer.

LyrArc Article Gist
Are bubble type incentives inflating the size of the U.S. auto market in 2012-2013 as happened in the past decade. This could hurt future sales. Japanese automakers have sharply increased incentives to make a come back after the tsunami and earhtquake restricted supplies. U.S. automakers are reluctant to go further down the incentives route that hurt them in the past decade. The result is higher inventories for Detroit automakers, another undesirable result. General Motors had 5 months of Malibu supply at dealers in Nov. 2012 at the current sales rate, Ford 4 months of Fiesta subcompact inventory and 73 days of total inventory overall, Chrysler 6 months of 2013 Dodge Dart inventory. GM has 3 months of Chevy Cruze inventory, and 138 days of Chevy Silverado pickup truck inventory. GM decided to idle one of two plants making the Cruze. In contrast Toyota has 2 months inventory for the Camry and Corolla. The largest incentives in the U.S. market are from Nissan, a 55% jump to average $4,273 in Nov. 2012 from $2,764 in Jan 2012. Honda increased incentives to average $2,428 from $1,978 in Feb. 2012, a 23% increase. Toyota up to average $2,075 in Nov 2012 from $1717 in Jan. 2012, a 21% increase, according to TrueCar.com, with zero percent interest rates not counted in these numbers. Ford offers $2895 off its 2013 Focus sedan, which has 2 months inventory. General Motors offers between $2900 and $3500 in average incentives , according to TrueCar.com....

LyrArc Article Gist
The port of Long Beach which takes in 20% of the container shipping of the USA,, and is next only to Los Angeles port in container shipping, is becoming a story of two economies, the American and the Chinese. Thousands of cars from Toyota, Nissan and Mercedes are piling on port property turning it into one huge parking lot, as dealers across the country say they have no need for them, and piles of paper and metal baled together to be shipped back on these ships to China to be recycled into cardboard for export boxes are also piling up as China no longer needs them. The drivers who drive the trucks are also being laid offf and looking for new jobs, which are signs that a deeper economic downturn is underway and the the Detroit automakers GM and Ford CEO's who told the Banking committee that they are making their estimates for 2009 on the basis of a 13- 14 million vehicle sales year may be in for another rude shock. The figure for the last quarter may be running at 10 million, and if this continues into 2009 as its expected to do, even the producton of cars after accelerated plant closures may have nowhere to go in 2009. Which is why there are so many questions about what is going on in the auto industry and so much need for candour and frank discussion that was missing in the evasiveness apparent in the Senate hearings on November 18, 2008, as CEO and union president skirted around the issues and senators failed to ask many other questions like these on what is happening on demand as well as many others....

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT plans for 25% tariff on all imported cars goes into effect April 2, 2025. It is intended to promote additional investment in the US auto industry, boosting jobs and wages in the US. These countries have now wrapped their behavior around national sentiment even though they very well know how the US has looked out for Europe, and especially China throughout cataclysmic events in the 20th century and the 21st century such as foreign occupation and failures in modernization. By 2015 the US which had given Europe the Marshall Plan and helped Japan rebuild from the ashes of World War II, South Korea rebuild from the devastation of the Korean war, and China rebuild after the failed industrialization experiments of the 1960's and 1970's, was now facing nations that only saw this as a One Way Street, making the US look stupid and showing a degree of irresponsible behaviour on fentanyl, drug and migrant trafficking  by Canada Mexico and China that has few parallels in history. The narrative from the US is that the US allowed Europe, Japan and South Korea, and Mexico as a manufacturing base for these countries 25 years since the 1970's when Japanese Toyota vehicles made inroads into the US market to help these countries recover, a post Marshall Plan benefit given to Europe and Asia. During 1995-2015 a series of weak administrations Clinton-Bush-Obama allowed the US manufacturing base to decline under a falsely premised globalization that served US financial interests but hurt US manufacturing towns and communities across the country.  This means BMW, VW cars imported from Germany, Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda cars from Japan, Hyundai and Kia cars from South Korea, Chinese EV vehicles, and cars made in Mexico for Asian and European makers, all will face this tariff. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Companies in the U.S. automibile market are again increasing their dependence on incentives to promote sales. GM's average incentive per vehicle was $3,732 in February 2011, according to Credit Suisse, up 13% from 2010.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. auto sales in May 2012 increased by 26% over the prior year. Toyota sales were up 87% to 203,000 bringing its market share up by 5 percentage points to 15.2%. Honda's sales were up 48% to 134,000, according to Autodata. Overall seasonally adjusted sales were up from the 11.7 million vehicles in 2011 to 13.8 million vehicles in May 2012. Ford's sales were up to 216,000, with a 30% increase in sales of F-series pickup trucks. A cause for concern for Ford would be the 35% of sales in May to rental companies and fleet buyers.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chrysler reported second quarter 2012 income of $436 million, compared with a loss of $370 million in the prior year quarter. The prior year quarter included charges for repaying U.S. government loans. First quarter 2012 income was $473 million. Fiat reported a loss of 246 million euros for the second quarter 2012. The combined operations Fiat-Chrysler reported aloss of 103 million euros. This shows how the effort by Sergio Marchionne to takeover Chrysler and turn it around have proved to be a very successful move for Fiat. With a relatively small investment Fiat is now a majority owner of Chrysler having invested mainly its management knowhow and leadership.