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Americans Save Early and set aside for savings 10% of your pre-tax income, is the advice to ensure a safe and healthy savings retirement. This is absolutely critical. What the government can do is to ensure that incomes keep uo with inflation with fair wages in industry. It also can and should protect Americans from unexpected medical costs by ensuring that all Americans are covered by health care and for catastrophic situations. Then it is the task of Americans to build a culture of careful saving that their ancestors had and considered a essential part of virtue. For this to help build savings for retirement the government and the Federal Reserve together- as Biden and Powell have shown one with capital investments to build a strong economy and the other by protecting savings and cost of living action- must ensure that no financial crises take interest rates to zero or 1-2%. At interest rates of 5-6% for returns this helps build savings for retirement. For this to happen banks have to go back to their traditional work in the economy and no speculation risk, and Silicon Valley go back to inventing and not a culture of capturing capital allocation in capital markets and paying little in taxes. A new culture would put government in its right place to ensure that it plays a significant role in building manufacturing and science and technology in the US as president Biden has done through government investing in infrastructure and renewable energy, chips and science, and in education, healthcare.  ...

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Deep polarization is seen also in South Korea. Policy issues are not being discussed with eligible voters divided evenly among progressives in their 40's and 50's and conservatives over 60 years, and about 20% of the voting public that are independents and younger voters deciding the elections in South Korea. As in the US cost of living is an issue, down to the price of onions of which president Yoon is seen as not paying attention to. Conservative People Power Party of president Yoon is expected to gain only about 100 seats of 300 seats in the National Assembly in the parliamentary election in South Korea. Yoon won in a tight race with Lee a candidate from the Liberal Democratic Party in 2022, which is expected to win about 200 of 300 Assembly seats. Yoon is building a close relationship with the US and Japan and visited the US for talks with Biden. The election is not expected to affect the close relations of US with South Korea. It reflects the polarization in South Korea, Yoon's effort for corporate tax cuts may not go through. The opposition has made allegations of corruption and abuse of power, and the cost of living, as campaign issues. About a third of 44 million eligible voters have cast votes. Younger voters and moderates appear not to trust Yoon. ...

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Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute points to trade barriers reducing competition and free trade that should raise an outcry when free trade and competition advocates focus alone on the Trump steel tariffs. He points to estimates that show $90 billion in additional costs to Americans from the barriers that prevent Americans from paying world market prices for surgeries and medical treatment, prices similar to what is paid in advanced countries like Germany, Britain and France. A bigger barrier in pharmaceuticals prices being sheltered from market competition worldwide costs a huge $370 billion in additional costs to Americans. These two costs in healthcare would help Americans by a magnitude compared to tax cuts that do not work for average Americans with the business tax cut going more into share buybacks than into increasing wages or capital investment in 2018.  Bernstein points to Neil Irwin's column in the NYT that flags statements such as Senator Mike Lee, Republican, that the steel tariffs are a huge job killing tax hike, as being misleading. Bernstein says two actions were never taken that would have used benefits of free trade to help affected communities that lost jobs in industries such as steel and textiles, other industries affected by foreign competition.  He lists these steps as sectoral employment training, apprenticeships ,and job creation efforts in the worst affected areas. Basically no one really knows what is good trade policy, the textbook concepts and theories are out of date when countries can subsidize particular industries such as steel and dump products into the American market. At a press conference on CSPAN with the Swedish prime minister Mr. Trump stated that China was exporting more than what is officially shown as there are transshipments from other countries, some of them with no steel mills.  As Mr. Trump stated at that press conference he was elected partly because of the worst affected communities- in places such as Michigan and other states in the midwestern U.S.- that suffered from unfair trade. Bernstein admonishes the economists and politicians, media, for the headlines that are misleading in showing that bad trade policy is being pursued and trade wars are being started. This deserves attention because the Trump administration and advisors such as Lighthizer who served in the Reagan administration seek fair trade, and the Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross successfully pushed for NAFTA trade deal renegotiation not the outright rejection of NAFTA that was mentioned in the election campaign. Ironically no one is helped by this trade rhetoric and misleading headlines. In fact the strengthening of the U.S. currency as the huge trade surplus of China goes into U.S. assets, and with the election of Mr. Trump, gives foreign competitors a continued advantage. And in fact Japan, South Korea, China, had a mild response to the tariffs as reported, because these countries are aware of global overcapacity created especially by China which produces 50% of the world's steel, and as China shifts to higher technologically value added products closing many older steel mills. ...

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Pollock's interview with Geroge Shultz, Reagan's senior economic advisor and Secretary of State, at his office in the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He says the U.S. can find its way out of the current economic crisis the way it did during the early Reagan years. On the Fed's loose monetary policy he says the Bernanke Fed's contribution to the economic crisis was very easy money. Now that we have it we realize that its going to take something different from easy money to get the economy moving- not just more money. Three quarters of the debt issued by the U.S. in the last year was bought by the Fed, and the Fed is monetizing debt when it buys debt because at some time this ends up getting out into the economy. Shultz sees the tax rules as being about more than rates. Corporate tax rates should be lowered by cleaning up preferences. But what is most important is predictability and an environment where business feels there is less uncertainty when investing. Shultz says Romney should read his memo to Reagan before Reagan assumed office, excerpted in the WSJ, "Advice to a New President," May 26, 2012. He also recommends John Taylor's new book- "First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring America's Prosperity." ...

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Allan Meltzer says a Fed QE III woud be bad monetary policy. He puts several questions to Bernanke- how the Fed and Ben Bernanke can know now what is the right interest rate policy in mid 2013, and what reason can the Fed give for adding excess reserves when U.S. banks have $1.6 trillion in idle reserves at the Fed. Meltzer cautions the Fed and other policymakers not to pay attention only to short term forecasts, which can be susceptible to large errors. And calls for attention to the long term consequences of their actions. One point he emphasizes is that the unemployment problem cannot be resolved with short term policy actions nor can it be resolved in a short time. It will take population growth, falling housing prices and rising rents to create opportunities for new construction. Another change is the transition to a less consumption driven and more export oriented economy. This transition which has started will also take time. He urges the Congress and the administration to focus on: reducing corporate tax rates by closing loopholes, long-term reductions in entitlement spending, a 5 year moratatorium on new regulations, and the Fed adopting an explicit inflation target between 0% and 2%....

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900 million eligible voters in India means this is the largest election ever. The election will take place in 7 phases in April and May from April 11 to May 19. Votes will be counted on May 23. The election is for 543 seats in parliament, the Lok Sabha. Turnouts are high with 66% turning out in the last election that brought Mr. Modi and the BJP to power.  Unlike elections in Britain a lot is spent in each election, about $5 billion in the last election and double that this time. The U.S. elections in 2016 had spending of $6.5 billion as a comparison. Women vote at about the same rate as men and more women than men are expected to vote this time. Prime minister Modi won the last election with promises of development and infrastructure. He is delivering on infrastructure but building manufacturing and generating jobs in the formal sector remains a tougher task for any administration in 4 years. During the first term Mr. Modi made needed changes including introducing the GST tax to integrate India's fragmented market and get rid of a patchwork of regional state taxes. He introduced a whole range of projects and yojanas which are setting the stage for widening the middle class, and improving living conditions. Some of the problems such as the bad loans in the banking system date back to previous administrations and the government has taken steps to clean up this problem by refinancing banks and introducing a bankruptcy law. This has slowed GDP growth to about 7%. However this would have happened under any administration.  The brief war with Pakistan in February 2019 has added another dimension to this election with questions about whether this may help Mr. Modi because of his strong stand against terrorism camps in Pakistan.  In the end it all comes down to whether the public still believes the BJP party under Modi is best qualified to develop the infrastructure to modernize the country and improve services, and whether it can create enough of the manufacturing capabilities to generate jobs needed. It may not be that the BJP under Modi has  not made mistakes in the process of learning how best to tackle development, but whether a patchwork of regional parties led by the opposition Congress party is in a position to provide the strong decisive direction to make quick decisions on development. Getting the agreement of a number of regional parties such as the party in West Bengal state or the Uttar Pradesh state when it was under a previous administration of Mrs Mayawati means an even slower rate of decision making as it leads to lack of speedy decision making. Whether voters have short memories and forget the slow rate of infrastructure development under previous administrations or have a willingness to give the BJP a chance to show what it can do under Modi for development can eventually decide this election. An example of what this means is in how the Mumbai Metro is being pushed through to timely delivery- Metro Rail's head Mrs. Ashwini Bhide simply says she feels for the people of Mumbai who have suffered from delays in development of needed infrastructure for so long, with millions doing appalling rides in a creaky old rail system. In her view it should have been done yesterday. It is this attitude that can make or break the current administration, and whether it can get this message through to voters one more time. Most who have this attitude are aware that China is now laying enough concrete every two years than America did in the whole 20th century, as reported in the Guardian newspaper, and are equally passionate about delivery of services and rapid development of badly needed infrastructure.         ...

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Key aspects of the new tax plan of the Trump administration are a 35% top tax rate for individuals, instead of the current 39.6% top rate, and lower brackets at 10% and 25%. Standard deductions are to be doubled, other deductions except for mortgage interest and charitable giving, are to be eliminated. The deduction for state and local taxes will be eliminated, with this hurting residents of high local tax states such as New Jersey, New York, and California. Gary Cohn, head of the National Economic Council and Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin,  have helped formulate the plan. Cohn sees a big opportunity here for a huge tax cut and simplifying the tax system. The corporate tax rate would drop from 35% to 15%, and future foreign profits would owe little or no taxes. Corporate tax rates are lower in the UK, Germany and Japan- closer to 20%, and France has a similar 35% corporate tax rate. The hope of the Trump administration is that this will generate 3% GDP growth rate and spur creation of jobs. Still to be decided at what level tax brackets for individuals will be set, and what level earlier foreign profits will be taxed, and the child care break. ...

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Who is Nandalal Weerasinghe? This report in The Daily News gives some idea about the man chosen to help Sri Lanka negotiate a deal with the IMF.  Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe was an alternate executive director at the International Monetary Fund before being appointed deputy governor of the Ceylon Central Bank in 2012. Before this he managed several macroeconomic departments at the central bank and was assistant governor of the central bank from 2007 to 2009, He has spent the large part of his career in economic positions at the Central Bank of Ceylon after getting his PhD in economics from the Australian National University. Weerasinghe is the leading expert in macroeconomics from Sri Lanka who has IMF experience. He says "things will get worse before they get better." He retired early from the central bank with a change in government in 2019. He was reappointed as Sri Lanka faced a debt crisis in March 2022 following the two year long pandemic, and the Ukraine war in 2022 that was bad for emerging market economies. Weerasinghe says about the crisis facing Sri Lanka- Recent decisons followed Modern Monetary Theory. This has dire consequences. In recent times the savings brought about by the low tax and interest rate regime passed savings on to the corporate sector and took away spending power from savers and pensioners. Surging inflation made things even worse for the lower income middle class and older parts of society. Years of accumulated debt have brought Ceylon to this point. In Ceylon one is seeing the effects of savings being passed on to the corporate sector in an economy dependent on tourism and remittances from overseas workers, both hit by the two year long pandemic. This is part of  a trend that has hurt emerging market economies from Argentina and Pakistan which also turned to the IMF to Turkey.  In other countries in the European Union savings also passed on to the corporate sector with low tax and low interest rate regime. With high inflation resulting in the cost of living crisis seen today in France and Germany. This type of policy that Weerasinghe calls 'Modern Monetary Theory' is not healthy for the European Union and the US, as these policies led to the neglect of much needed and vital investments in infrastructure, health and education. Only now are these effects being corrected by new administrations of Biden in the US and Scholz in Germany, with Biden's 2 trillion plan for workers and families, and a similar plan from chancellor Scholz. With this come needed investments to tackle climate change, all of which was neglected before. India has taken a different approach. By following good governance, managing vaccination effectively during the pandemic, social emphasis for food, water, electricity, cooking gas, medicine for the vast population of 1.2 billion, and a Master plan for building Made in India manufacturing,  India has avoided such crises and maintained strong economic growth. In this sense it is a model for South Asian, South East Asian, African, and Latin American emerging market economies that face a difficult situation today. Good governance is critical.   ...

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Krugman cites the near monopoly of rare earth materials by China, and the embargo on export to Japan, as an irresponsible exercize of economic power by China. These materials are used in many high-tech devices.The monopoly itself was a result of the US neglecting its production of these materials in the US. In one case, he says, the US allowed the Chinese to literally pack up all the equpment of a US factory and ship it to China. Low wages and lax environmental standards helped China to price below the U.S. industry, leading to its shutdown.

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Wilber and Tau of the WSJ report that Special Counsel Mueller in the Russia investigation has impaneled a grand jury to further strengthen his investigation. Mr. Mueller has put together a team of 16 attorneys with long experience as prosecutors. By working with a grand jury Mueller and his team are working only a few blocks from the U.S. federal courthouse where grand juries meet, which helps the team to conduct its investigation. A number of experts consulted by WSJ say this means a vigorous investigation is now being put together.  The U.S. Congress is also acting independently to support Mueller. Legislation being sponsored by Sens. Thom Tillis and Chris Coons on August 3, 2017, make it possible to reinstate Mr. Mueller in a situation where he is fired by the president. Under the legislation a special counsel can challenge his removal and a three judge panel could reinstate him. Separately Sens. Graham and Cory Booker are also putting forward legislation for the same purpose. All Senators are from both parties, the two Republicans are from North and South Carolina. In a rare show of unanimous bipartisan support for Russia sanctions following the involvement in the 2016 U.S. election, the entire U.S. Congress over 500 members voted in favor- except for 5 members. The vote in the House 419 to 3, and in the Senate 98 to 2. Such a level of unanimous support is rarely seen, suggesting how the U.S. Congress views this matter as of the highest importance. ...

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Pakistan's economic delegation meets Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, at the IMF and World Bank Annual meeting in Bali, Indonesia. Lagarde calls for transparency in accounting and complete understanding of Pakistan's debt. IMF delegation will visit Islamabad to discuss terms for a loan. The previous government of Mr. Sharif came under criticism for not providing transparency on Pakistan's total debt. There is concern about debt trap diplomacy in loans from China, as loans may exceed the country's ability to repay and the interest rate terms are not seen as favorable to Pakistan. The Sharif government is criticized for not negotiating better terms for loans from China. Pakistan faces $8 billion debt load in 2018, with first payments to China under Belt and Road Initiative of $1 billion due in 2019. Pakistan's total foreign exchange reserves fell to a low of $8.4 billion, according to the central bank. Pakistan is seeking $12 billion in IMF assistance, but experts say more will be needed to bridge the financial gap. The Pakistan rupee dropped by 10% during this week in October 2018, down to 137 rupees for a U.S. dollar. The new government of prime minister Imran Khan took office in August 2018 after election promises to bring transparency to Pakistan's debt situation. Promises were also made to improve low income housing and meet needs of poor and low income public. Imran Khan opened a public housing project to build 5 million new homes. IMF terms could restrict the money available for badly needed housing and other social projects.  Pakistan's small tax base with a small percentage of the population paying taxes, also restricts the ability of the government to fund social welfare projects and infrastructure. It makes the country more dependent on outside assistance and loans. India has moved to expand its tax base, and is implementing GST tax reforms to increase the tax revenues available to fund infrastructure, health, education and housing. The war in Yemen has complicated other sources of funding traditionally accessed by Pakistan from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The financing gap is estimated by experts to be $20 billion, with the IMF assistance sought of $12 billion falling short of the financial needs. ...

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Barley points out that the Euro-zone austerity plans in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, the U.K. and other countries are coming in the context of a potential global slowdown. This will make it even harder for these countries to reduce debt and deficits. Greece had to make cuts and tax increases equivalent to 8% of GDP just to reduce the 2010 deficit by 5% after GDP declined more than expected according to the IMF. To reduce debt ratios nominal growth has to be higher than the average interest rate on debt. Its hard to see this happening and debt not increasing in some Eurozone countries.

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Feldstein sees the need for some kind of tax cut in 2008 that would be triggered by increase in unemployment. He advocates further decreases in interest rates by the Fed in 2008. He doesn't see much relief for subprime borrowers. The doollar in his view is still overly strong and a lower dollar would help the US reduce its trade deficit by stimulating exports even further.

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The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this. ...

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Norris quotes Senator John McCain who said that when corporations such as Apple and Google do not pay their share of taxes, other companies in the U.S. and ordinary taxpayers have to make up the difference.

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EU leaders and proposals to limit tax avoidance by digital companies by requiring the companies to show the profits in the countries where they are made. This would require changing bilateral treaties. France is looking at proposals to tax companies by the number of clicks or user data. Large digital companies, including Apple and Google declare most of their European revenue in Ireland using legal loopholes in that country to shift profits to lower tax locations. A Senate report in the U.S. in May 2013 shows Apple using technicalities in Irish and U.S. laws to pay only a small amount in corporate taxes in four years 2009-2012 on $74 billion. Fredrik Reinfeldt, the prime minister of Sweden stated the argument for fairness in tax policy- "These companies ask for a lot of investment in infrastructure, in research and development, they want to have well educated staff members. Well, let's keep that together: Pay your taxes so we can afford all of these investments."

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Italy's prime minister Berlusconi is changing the terms of the 45.15 billion euro austerity package after political protests. He has to weigh what is doable in the political context with demands from the European Central Bank, which is buying Italian bonds to prevent a surge in borrowing rates for Italy. The new measures as the old package unraveled are: an increase in the value added tax to 21% from 20%, increasing the retirement age for women in the private sector to 65 from 60 in 2014, two years earlier than expected, and a 3% tax on Italians earning above 300,000 euros annually. The street protesters in Bolgna, Milan Rome and other cities, protested that the earlier package unfairly put the burden on the working class. The cuts in local government spending in the earlier package would have impacted spending on items such as nurseries for children, drawing protests from teachers. The debate on an equitable sharing of the burden of reducing deficits is ocurring both in the U.S. and Europe, especially with high unemployment and lack of economic growth....

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Trump's tax plan sets a 15% tax rate for owner operated companies,on so-called pass-through businesses. A tax break is planned for child care.

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Pearlstein raises the question, are there business leaders who believe that what's good for America, is good for business, rather than the other way around. Google, like other technology companies, pays much less in taxes than the corporate tax rate suggests. Research by the Washington Post shows this to be 18%, not 35%, for 2009.

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After decades of neglect by different administrations and apathy at US semiconductor companies, semiconductor production investment in the US is beginning to take place. But the US Chamber of Commerce warns this is only a small trickle compared to investment in Asia. In a report on Nov. 22, 2021, the US Chamber of Commerce warns that only 6% of new semiconductor global capacity added over the next 10 years is expected to be located in the US, and urging that $52 billion in direct subsidies in the US for new chip factories be approved quickly by the US Congress. That the cost of owning a new chip factory in the US compared to South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore is higher by 30%, and in China by 50% is largely attributable to  the availability of subsidies in these countries from the government, and the absence of these incentives and subsidies in the US, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association report published last year. South Korea, China and Japan are now accelerating the pace of these subsidies and incentives. So that the US has a lot to do to make up for the years of neglect of its technology and competitive leadership. This WSJ Investigation report says South Korea aims to double its annual chip exports from today to $200 billion by 2030, and is offering billions of dollars in tax breaks, lower interest rates, other investments, including asking local governments to ensure adequate water supply for chip making. To keep up the US needs to change its entire approach to investments in critical industries from the approach and lethargy of the previous administrations since the 1980's.  US semiconductor companies, the Semiconductor Industry Association and the Biden Administration need to put together a concerted effort for US chip leadership beyond the slight increase from 16% to 24% the US hopes to gain in production of advanced chips by 2027 under the present plans cited in the WSJ. The Biden Administration issued a joint statement Nov. 23 that it is working around the clock with the US Congress, and more work remains to be done to "ensure that America remains the most innovative and productive nation on Earth." ...