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The email server controversy has had the effect of obscuring Hillary Clinton's message about her policies. Hillary Clinton's instincts in a lifetime in politics made it harder for her to apologize and let the matter fade away. Because the 2016 campaign is run by committee, has some members of Obama's campaign team, and led by Mr. Podesta who is close to Mr. Clinton, with senior advisors offering advice, it is not as coherent as the 2014 campaign team in offering advice to the candidate. As a result it took a while before advisors could relay the message that the email controversy was not just about Mrs. Clinton's and Bill Clinton's conviction that she had done nothing wrong, but about the larger message to voters on her campaign platform. By early September it was being obscured by the enthusiasm in the Sanders campaign, and non stop coverage of the email controversy in the media. Her falling popularity in the polls was the signal that led Hillary Clinton finally to say "sorry, I shouldn't have done this."...

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This report by Juan Montes in the WSJ shows how much Lopez Obrador has changed since he lost by a small margin in the 2006 Mexico presidential election. His campaign manager, Tatiana Clouthier, says broadening his appeal to women, evangelicals, middle class Mexicans, rich and poor, is needed for Obrador to win in 2018. In elections in 2006 and 2012 Obrador continued to be seen as the candidate only of the working class. An effort is being made to change this image. Obrador, 64 years old from the party of the left, formed his own party in 2010 after leaving the PRD party. He is a former mayor of Mexico City. Five recent polls show Obrador leading by an average of 7.5 points over Ricardo Analya, the PAN candidate for president which now has the support of the PRD. PAN on the right and PRD on the left are other opposition parties. PAN party formed the government under Felipe Calderon before the current PRI president Nieto now tainted by corruption scandals became president in 2012. If he were to win Obrador would change the way Mexico was governed for 5 decades. His first step would be to review the 91 exploration contracts given by the government under the Nieto administration to check for signs of graft. Corruption is a key platform of the parties running against the current government of president Nieto, for both Obrador and the PAN/PRD alliance candidate Anaya. Obrador says he would keep balanced budget deficits and respect the central bank's autonomy. The shift would be from the current export model that Mexico has supported for 35 years, to one based on import substitution policies, higher salaries, and more government spending for education, jobs programs, healthcare, new oil refineries. With the Trump administration's stance on trade and immigration Mexicans are now showing anger and frustration, with 75% of Mexicans in a Reforma poll looking for change. Both the PAN/PRD and its new face in Ricardo Analya, 38 years old, and the Obrador party see corruption and with it in the Mexican context the rule of law as a key issue.  ...

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The WSJ's Monica Langley provides insights into Donald Trump's campaign strategies, some of them right out of his book "The Art of the Deal." His target voter is from a think big strategy to get voters across a broad spectrum using the slogan "Make America Great Again," with a knack of tapping into a deep well of voter frustration with the political establishment. How to get attention in the media is the next step Trump tackled by using social media to the fullest - using Twitter often, making statements that attract attention such as the ones on China, Mexico, Senator McCain and Muslims that tap into failure of political correctness to address voter frustration on trade and jobs, immigration and terrorism. The Trump campaign has 14 million followers on Twitter, and 50 million "engagement" accounts on Facebook- that cost very little. Social media is to Trump in 2016 what community networking on the PC dashboard was to Obama in 2008. As the WSJ pointed out in an editorial, the splitting of the Republican vote among many candidates, and the failure of candidates to grasp the nature of the unconventional campaign waged by Trump- descending into attacks based on target groups of voters on every candidate except Trump- created the opportunity Trump has grasped with his knack for improvising along the way. Commonsense campaigning without sophisticated strategies, improvising often along the way, using the available medium of social media at little cost to get the message and slogan across, helped Trump make the deal with voters to upset the political establishment. The Sanders campaign is also based on careful repetition of the same slogan and facts about inequality and lobbyists, over and over again, offering strong action on health care and college tution just as Trump offers strong action on China trade, immigration with the idea of the wall, and barring entry of Muslims for terrorism till "we figure out what's happening." The difference being that Trump thinks big and targets the entire electorate of his party's voters in the primaries from the beginning, and a broad based campaign on many issues. Underestimating your opponent carries many risks in politics, never more so than when you are out of touch or not listening to voter frustration, and fail to speak up to it....

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President Trump says of aide Stephen Bannon- "he's a friend of mine."  In the same news conference he added that Bannon had joined the Trump campaign late, and that "we'll see what happens to him," in August 2017. Bannon has come under criticism for the chaotic situation in the White House. Bannon's use of the Alt-right news outlets to criticize national security chief Gen. McMaster is now an issue in the administration. Bannon's job remains uncertain, says this NYT report, yet he continues to have some influence in policy the president uses to appeal to the Alt-right part of his base of support. Rarely has a presidential aide ruffled so many in the White House, and rarely has a president used the Alt-right in this manner.

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Guardian's David Smith has short memories as he compares response at Obama's stops and visits in 2012 and compares that to Biden's as he visits Detroit and Atlanta in May 2024. In 2012 in the last weeks of the election Mitt Romney was much closer than is remembered today. Obama was at risk of being a one term president and depended on a strong turnout from Latino voters. Mariachi bands were called out in states where Hispanic vote was critical in these closing weeks. This is also just after the pandemic once in a century event that has affected younger people more than other groups, and after the dislocation and misinformation, the suppression of real information about the massive investment in the economy by president Biden for the first time in 50 years. Obama then lacked the kind of bipartisan support from all groups including Republicans and suburban voters that Biden now has that were never part of the Obama coalition. As shown by Nate Cohn in NYT what Biden is after are the disengaged younger voters and new voters in 2024 that have no awareness of the president's efforts to improve standards of living of the American people, who president Biden is working hard at campaign stop after campaign stop to reach about 6 months before the election. ...

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Hillary Clinton's presidential election strategy appears to be writing off core Republican states such as Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virgina, and focussing on parts of the midwest such as Ohio, Wisconsin, the East and the West. It would be different from the election strategy Hillary Clinton used in 2008 which made an appeal to white working class voters and worked to win votes nationwide, similiar to the two Bill Clinton campaigns which appealed to centrist voters. This may also be because Hillary Clinton is perceived in 2015 as a polarizing candidate by many voters in southern states, with little prospect of winning in these states, making the new strategy a safe fallback option based on Democratic strategies in 2008 and 2012. Jeb Bush's strategy as a candidate with positions that would attract some Hispanic voters, and working class voters, could pose risks to this Clinton election strategy.

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U.S. president Obama is critical of the role played by the media in the 2016 election campaign in a keynote speech at a journalism dinner for the Toner Prize for Excellence in Political Reporting. Obama said lately " I spend a lot of time reflecting on how this system- how this crazy system of self-government works. How we can make it work. And this is as important to making it work as anything. People getting information they can trust and that has substance and truth and facts behind it." He added that "what we are seeing right now does corrode our democracy and our society. When our elected officials and political campaigns become entirely untethered to reason and facts and analysis, when it doesn't matter what is true or not, that makes it impossible for us to make decisions on behalf of future generations." On the way Donald Trump's campaign has lowered the level of public debate Obama had this to say- referring indirectly to the NYT report of over $1.9 billion of free television coverage given to Donald Trump by the media- the country, "would be better servedif billions of dollars in free media came with serious accountability, especially when the politicians issue unworkable plans or make promises they can't keep.. and there are reporters here who know they can't keep them." The wall between the U.S. and Mexico to be built with Mexico's financing, the deportation of millions of illegal immigrants, the 45% tariff on imports from China, reducing support for NATO, are some of the campaign themes used to appeal to disaffected voters by Mr. Trump in the election, which are some of the puzzling ways in which the election campaign for 2016 has evolved- without proper media scrutiny, and what some critics say panders to ratings at a time of shrinking television staffs and budgets. ...

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How third party candidates in 2016 put Trump in the White House is shown in graphs in the WSJ. Since 2000 about 2% of the vote goes to third party candidates such as Greens, Libertarian, and others, in 2016 this reached 6%. It hurt Clinton the most as the Trump lead in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was merely 5-10% of 200,000-300,000 votes for independent candidates in Wisconsin,  in Michigan and in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton lacked clear focus in her campaign and her years as overseas traveling foreign minister left her out of touch with the alienation of the working class and fragmentation as Silicon valley tech and financial interests intruded into the Democratic party. This had the effect of muddying the focus on the Democrats FDR/Truman working class base and also with America's rural voters suffering from a toxic mix of problems. In 2024 the Kennedy candidacy takes as many or more votes from Mr. Trump says the WSJ. The Biden focus on workers and families gives the Democrats a clear direction along with wage gains by union labor and a resilient economy with low unemployment. This suggests that the independent candidates may not find more traction than the 2% of previous elections since 2000. ...

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Invest in China and visits to China promoted by PM Li Qiang with easier to get China visas is not getting the response China would have liked to get. Zero covid efforts and anti-espionage campaign has created some distrust. South Korea with 300,000 people in China has seen registration numbers drop to 200,000. Britain by half from 40,000 to 20,000, Japan by 10% from 100,000 to 90,000, and France by about 20% from 40,000. China gave out 711,000 residence permits to foreigners in 2023, a 15% decline over 2019, yet for short distance permits that include business travelers the drop was by about two thirds. 

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America had forgotten it's workers built America in a Clinton-Trump world. The Federal Poverty Level is $35000 - $40000 when entry younger UAW workers at lower tiers make $34000 a year during wage negotiations and a UAW strike in 2023. The contrast from 2016 could not be greater- no president in history except Biden on a worker strike picket line yesterday, Mrs Clinton oblivious about unions in the midwest in 2016. Mr. Trump saying wage negotiations not important as he visits Drake Enterprises, automobile parts supplier, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Michigan. The Guardian reports most were small business owners, with  few autoworkers. Enthusiasm of small business owners high for Trump in this swing county in Michigan. In stark contrast to the 2016 campaign president Biden was seen the previous day with a bull horn at a UAW auto workers strike picket line, becoming the first US president in history to do this. Biden said "workers built the middle class." Trump said China was the enemy not low wages or incompetent bosses, saying "the current wage negotiations are not as important as you think," when workers had tiered wages from previous concessions on wages, with entry level wages starting at about $17 an hour. That is only slightly above the $16 minimum wage in California. America in the Clinton-Trump world had truly forgotten that workers in its factories built America, and workers families made America what it was for most of the century since Lincoln and the Industrial Revolution. ...

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The Romney story says this editorial is one of a turnaround- of a kind patiently nurtured from his days turning around businesses as a management consultant. This one was different and probably required a lot of soul searching and courage to take up new positions. As a technocrat, says the Journal, Romney would have been more comfortable with a room full of IQ's going over spreadsheets of numbers. He tried to do this by not taking up specific positions till the need to convince voters, first in the GOP base and then centrists and independents after the convention, forced Romney to make the reassessment and turnaround he needed to make. In November 2011 he accepted the Ryan position that Medicare needed changes, and in Feb 2012 he took up the case for lower tax rates and cutting deductions. In October 2012 came the first debate, with it Romney abandoned his reluctance to put forward a plan for the economic recovery and put forward his five point plan. That was the turning point in the campaign but all the other steps including the selection of Ryan, a Congressman from a working class district in Wisconsin, agianst the advice of advisors, were leading up to this turnaround. This was likely the most difficult of turnarounds, even searing in its soul searching as Romney scribbled "Dad" on paper at the lectern before the first debate- turning back to beginnings he had doubted for so long....

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The 2016 primaries with Sanders and Trump have brought to the forefront voter dissatisfaction with the agenda of both parties, especially so for Republicans with the lack of specifics and personality driven campaign of frontrunner Trump. On a whole host of issues from poverty, wages and inequality, regulatory reform, to trade, borders, security, ISIS, both parties are facing questions from voters. Particularly the Republicans who have lacked specifics during the two terms of the Democratic Obama administration with a divided Republican Congress, and the risks for Republicans running for Congress under frontrunners Trump or Cruz who have provided few details on their agenda. The Agenda project of Ryan will have about 25 meetings and prepared specific agenda, including white papers and legislation, that would give Republicans hope to run on positive proposals that are placed before the Republican Convention in Cleveland. Chairmen of House standing committees were assigned 6 areas- health care, taxes, national security, regulatory reform, poverty, and Congress reasserting constitutional authority. Ryan told the Ethics and Public Policy Center on April 19, 2016- "A lot of people don't like conservatism as they know it. For too many people Republicans seem to be caught in a time warp. They're thinking, 'We don't control our borders. Wages are going nowhere. College and healthcare keep getting expensive. ISIS continues to spread. And what are Republicans going to do about it?' So we need to adapt our policies to meet the challenges of the 21st century."...

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GM sells just 30,000 Cadillacs in China. It is one of 8 brands with total GM sales of 2.8 million vehicles in China. The luxury and premium vehicle market is growing in China with 8.5% of the total vehicle market in 2012. GM's 30,000 Cadillac sales makes Cadillac at only one tenths of one percent of its China sales volume, and way behind luxury car makers Mercedes and BMW. GM plans to take a larger share of this market and increase Cadillac sales to 100,000 by 2016. To do this GM will launch a new advertising campaign in China with actor Brad Pitt and increase dealers in China to 200 by the end of 2013. A new Cadillac will be introduced every year through 2016. Cadillac comes in the SRX, a small sport utility vehicle, and the XTS, a full size sedan. A 8 cylinder Cadillac, the SLS, will be discontinued.

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A open conversation with the NYT's Baker, Schmidt and Haberman by president Trump in mid July 2017. This conversation of the president with the NYT is remarkable for its frankness about people close to the president during the election campaign, particularly Jeff Sessions of Alabama. Sessions was the only leading Senator in Congress who supported Mr. Trump from the beginning. Southern states came out heavily for Mr. Trump as part of the traditional Republican base. Trump says of Sessions that had he known Sessions was going to recuse himself from the Russia investigation he would not have appointed Sessions as the new Attorney General. About Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein Trump says he should never have appointed Mueller as Special Counsel. The president also says Mueller should stay only with information related to Russia and not stray from that to delve into Trump's finances. During the election efforts were made to get Mr. Trump to disclose more about his finances as a real estate businessman- most of these efforts failed and not much is known about president Trump's finances. The president says he never said he would order the Justice Department to fire Mr. Mueller, yet he left open this possiblility, according to the NYT, as the president feels it has affected the first 6 months of the Trump presidency. This interview with president Trump was published on July 20, 2017, the day after an editorial in the WSJ by the Editorial Board of the Journal on July 19, 2017, calling for transparency from president Trump on the Russia investigation. This was an exceptional and powerful editorial by its editorial board telling president Trump that he must tell everything he knows now or face the risk of losing public confidence, and risk his presidency. It said that president Trump was wrong to think that his larger than life personality and social media role could insulate him from the effects of this lack of transparency. ...

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Whites are aging faster in the U.S., census figures show, and white deaths are higher than white births as the birthrate for whites declines. This is also leading to anxiety among whites about uncontrolled immigration, and behind the Republican party's moves on immigration. The effects of world trade and the hollowing out of some industries with the effect on local communities in the U.S. has exacerbated the anxiety. Signs of this were evident in the last decade leading to the Trump campaign based on immigration issues and trade in the 2016 election, which resonate more in the mid sections of the U.S. with the lack of the tech industry and financial industry of the two coasts.

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The Guardian in its Editorial on Keir Starmer on February 10, 2026, says Labour was in the political wilderness for 18 years, and yet it has taken only 14 months for the project which put it into power to implode. It is referring to the project of McSweeney from County Cork, Ireland, and others to put a centrist to replace Corbyn, and selecting Keir Starmer. This was a weakness from the start as a candidate has to emerge on his own merits not be put in place by handlers like McSweeney, as he would not be able to govern on his own thinking and make his own decisions.  McSweeney was a campaign organizer and not successful at that as portrayed as Labour could have taken more than the 34% of the vote it received after 18 years of Tory rule without the likes of McSweeney. The Guardian says "excessive power and influence" was given by Starmer to McSweeney, and that the outsourcing of Britain's direction served neither the prime minister or the country well.  This is aserious flaw. McSweeney did not have the long experience of advisers that backed up Biden in the White House. And even the long experience of Biden group of advisers failed Biden when it came to immigration policy and the Border. And yet the question remains why was there such a lack in the talent pool for good governance for Labour, as it was for the Conservatives, for 3 decades since the 1990's? Similar to the situation with Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama governance in the US, why is there not a good talent pool for effective governance in the UK and the US? The Guardian goes on to question the judgement of Starmer and the clique around him including McSweeney for their attitude towards helping the working class in support payments during a cost of living crisis- what it calls a contempt filled approach of the cliques to the normal priorities of a Labour party. The Editorial concludes that Labour has lost control of the trajectory of events- as more Mandelson emails are expected- and that it is hard to see how this trust can be won back. For Britain having 5 prime ministers over 4 years is a shocking lack of the talent, of confidence, that once prevailed in the nation that once led the world with the Industrial Revolution, and in science and technology. ...

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The new White House Press Secretary is a decent choice. She is 27 years and yet brings plenty of experience with youthful enthusiasm- graduating from Catholic college St Anselm in New Hampshire, she joined the 2016 White House as an intern. She then worked as a speechwriter and assistant press secretary, preparing high profile briefings for Mary McEnany the last DJT press secretary. In 2022 she ran for Congress from New Hampshire, losing to Chris Pappas. In January 2024  she came back as press secretary for the DJT campaign. 

She has a degree in communications and political science. Before running for Congress in 2022 she served as communications director for Elise Stefanik, another youthful enthusaistic senior Republican Congressmwoman 40 years, who chaired the Repubican Conference and is the new UN ambassador. This gives her insight into international affairs as she draws on working with Elise Stefanik.

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The 47 seconds of a UC Davis Law School debate for the election of Attorney General California. The year 2010, Kamala Harris 45 years old had endorsed Obama early in 2008, was becoming well known in the California Democratic party. The debate was with Steve Cooley, a popular Republican District Attorney elected in 2000. Cooley was looking into outlandish salaries for public officials in the City of Bell. The issue of double dipping had been raised in the primary by Cooley's opponent Eastman. Jack Leonard on of three panelists said he would ask the question about double dipping to Cooley, about Cooley taking his taxpayer paid pension to add to his salary as AG of $150,000, that would get him to make $400,000. "Do you plan to double-dip by taking both a pension and your salary as attorney general?” Mr. Leonard asked. “Yes, I do,” Mr. Cooley said outright Leonard glanced at Ms. Harris. She said nothing.    “I earned it.” But Mr. Cooley was not yet done. “I definitely earned whatever pension rights I have, and I will certainly rely upon that to supplement the very low, incredibly low salary that’s paid to the attorney general,” said Cooley. Everyone felt a moment of silence and amazement. And then Harris said "Go for it Steve. You earned it." Harris campaign was about broke with only $750,000 left, just enough to run one ad spot for only 1  week. And Kamala Harris had the courage to do just that. At that moment the campaign was won, a last minute counter ad did not register as Meg Whitman the governor candidate for Republicans  was seeing her campaign go off the rails. ...

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Nate Cohn of the NYT points out that based on the way in which moderate voters shifted to vote for Cruz in Wisconsin, especially in the eastern part of the state, this could be a turning point in the Cruz campaign. Cohn cites exit polls showing 29% of moderate voters went for Cruz in Wisconsin compared to 12% in Michigan and 15% in Illinois. In Madison's Dane County, a moderate area, Cruz had 38% of the vote. If this proves to be resilient then Trump could become the underdog in California, Indiana, Maryland, and Montana, with Pennsylvania becoming competitive, says Cohn. Reasons why this shift of moderate voters to Cruz could be a lasting shift are the results on March 15, 2016, with Cruz getting 40% of the vote in Missouri, and 30 percent in Illinois.

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Britain's campaign finance laws limit each party to spending $29.5 million for the year before the election. British elections are determined by the results in 650 local constituencies, under a parliamentary system, making campaigning local. There too the laws are strict. Candidates for a parliamentary constituency have a limit of $60,000 for spending for the 5 months before the election, plus additional amounts depending on the number of voters and if it is rural or urban. Britain bans election advertising on commercial television and radio. Parties are provided pre-election broadcasts shown on commercial television and by the British Broadcasting Corporation. This stands in obvious contrast to the U.S. where an estimated $10 billion will be spent on the 2016 presidential election. Candidates spend as much time raising money as they do getting across their election message in the U.S. Britain also disproves the popular idea that election campaign spending inevitably moves in an upward trajectory. British researchers estimate the cost of the 1880 campaign to be 100 million pounds in 2002 prices, and the election spending in the 2010 British general election of 45.5 million pounds coming to less than half that....

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The U.S. Senate voted 51 to 49 on a Democratic party measure for further reductions in 2012 Social Security payroll taxes for workers and employers, including a surtax on incomes over $1 million. A measure supported by the Republican party to pay for the payroll tax cut by reducing the Federal payrolls was defeated, with half the Republicans voting against it. Democrats hope to use this issue to show Republicans favor the rich over the middle class, as the payroll tax cut benefits most Americans. Polls show Americans by a large majority see Republican policies favoring the rich. A New York Times/CBS poll in October showed 7 of 10 Americans feel this way. Pollster Geoff Garin says the income inequality issue is beginning to override other issues including antigovernment feeling. This is one way in which the Occupy Wall Street Movement's slogan of "the 99 percent" has resonated with U.S. public opinion. The Democratic party sees this as an opportunity to define the campaign issues for 2012, with Republicans running for reelection cautious about being seen this way....

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WSJ reporter Monica Langley provides a glimpse behind the scenes of how Donald Trump comes up with his attacks on rivals, and statements on immigration, terrorism, refugees. Trump pays close attention to what is riling voters on any particular week, but other rival politicians are not willing to say. He looks for what resonates with the public, and in today's environment where politicians are cautious, careful and plodding, this strategy works. Donald usually puts down a few points on his private plane, looks at reports from campaign staff, yet makes all the decisions himself on what and how to say it. His memory helps, he says. And he has a flair for words, sounding uncouth at times, but yet choosing words carefully enough to sound reasoanble to his audience. In Jan 2016 this approach has worked for Trump in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, stalling progress by rival Ted Cruz, and holding back other rivals. Yet this approach has its risks as the primary season progresses. One of the changes in the Republican party politics in 2016 is the emergence of two candidates Donald Trump representing the white working class, and Ted Cruz representing evangelicals, who are both strident and willing to take strong positions on issues in striking contrast to leading Democrats. Trump on China, immigration, refugees, and Cruz on taxes, cultural issues for evangelicals, IRS, Affordable Health Care Act, and both candidates on terrorism. ...

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Facebook has invested heavily in proving that digital ads on Facebook are effective. Some of the research was done with Datalogix and other firms. About 60 ad campaigns were carefully tracked to show how consumers seeing ads on Facebook spend their dollars on products in brick and mortar stores. One ad with cuddly bears for Coca-Cola was more effective than ads on television, says CEO Sandberg. In addition to targeting users based on what users share in their Facebook profiles advertisers can now see the effects on sales. Facebook's vice president of measurements and insights, Brad Smallwood, says advertisers were given the first big report on how consumers acted after seeing ads in the real world. The results are most evident in digital advertising for mobile phones. Facebook has 6% of the $118 billion digital advertising global ad market compared to Google's 31%. The share in mobile is 18% in 2013, up from 5% in 2012. Facebook shares were up 14% or $7.55 to $61.08 on Jan. 30, 2014. Facebook's share price increased by 20% in July 2013 after a similiar announcement of improvement in mobile ad revenues. Facebook's IPO price was $38 in 2013....