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This WSJ editorial says Donald Trump's first foreign policy speech is full of contradictions. Mr. Trump says foreign policy should be "unpredictable" yet this also means says the WSJ, that the country should trust his instincts, and everybody else a loser- "I'm the only one-believe me, I know them all- I'm the only one who knows how to fix it." It says the speech gets an "Incomplete" at Trump University. It criticizes Obama, but in failing to stand up for peace through strength that marked the post war peace since 1945, WSJ says that more than people realize Mr. Trump is a continuation of Mr. Obama's policies of withdrawing from global engagement that has ensured that peace. Trade wars with China, Mexico and Japan could lead to a world recession. Though much needs to be done to ensure trade is fair to U.S. workers and business, Trump has no clearly stated path to do this, instead relying on brinksmanship that could end up in trade wars.

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Glencore is faced with falling prices of copper and other metals, declining profits from commodities trading, and a high net debt load of $30 billion. CEO Glasenberg is losing credibility with investors with a sharp decline in the share price, especially as the commodities trading operations are not able to cushion the fall in commodities prices. Commodities trading division adjusted profits for the 1st half showed 29% decline to $1.1 billion. Its share price declined 10% on August 19, 2015. Glasenberg is the second largest shareholder after the Qatar sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Holding LLC. The company went public in 2011, and acquired Xstrata in 2013. Since 2014 Glencore has lost half its market value as prices of metals fell sharply. The company is based in Baar, Switzerland. Glencore's results for the first half of 2015 showed anet loss of $676 million compared to profit of $1.72 billion in the prior year. Revenue declined by 25% to $85.71 billion.

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The election strategy of Obama campaign manager Jim Messina to spend heavily early on in the campaign- even before Romney would get to the convention- to portray Romney as a private equity executive out of touch with the needs of working class Americans. Romney's record at Bain Capital was under relentless attack in the late summer and Romney did little to defend his record till late in the campaign. The other area especially in the midwestern states was the auto industry bailout for which the Obama campaign put out a flurry of ads saying Romney was willing to let Detroit go bankrupt. Experts say this proved to be the decisive factor, as Romney could never overcome the disadvantage in this portrayal to voters of someone who did not care enough for people like them. To do this the Obama campaign had outdone the Romney campaign in fundraising, being way ahead of Romney in campaign funding by that time.

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In April 2012 the PBOC widened the trading range for the yuan to 1% from 0.5%. In Feb. 2014 the PBOC is expected to widen that trading range to 2%, as part of the PBOC's plan to gradually let the yuan trade freely. Increasing capital flows into China in 2013 and beginning of 2014 have led to appreciation of the yuan. To control one way appreciation the PBOC bought about $45 billion in foreign exchange in Dec. 2013, for the fifth month of net purchases. The yuan was at 6.1248 per dollar on Feb. 26, 2013. It has declined by 1.2% against the dollar from the beginning of 2014 to Feb 26. In 2013 the yuan gained 2.9%. The PBOC policy statements indicate that it sees the yuan at an "equilibrium level," or fair market value. The new policy to decrease its value slightly is designed to widen the trading range close to 2% and make trading a two way bet.

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Elelven of twelve Fed Governors support the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates low till unemployment falls below 6.5%, as long as inflation remains subdued at 2-2.5% and inflation expectations are low. Only the Fed governor of Richmond expressed a dissenting vote. The Fed in its policy statement said it was addressing the problems of the last three years in housing and joblessness. Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed put it this way in a Sept 2011 speech- suppose the inflation rate was 5% when the target was 2%, then central banksers at the Fed would have acted as if their hair was on fire to tackle inflation, then why shouldn't the Fed do the same for unemployment. He succeeded in convincing Bernanke, Yellen and other Fed governors. Bernanke emphasized the enormous cost in human potential and productive capacity of the U.S. economy from high unemployment and people dropping out of the labor force.

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Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, Greece's second largest party, is interviewed by WSJ's Bret Stephens. Tsipras describes the problems inside Greece. He describes the bribery in healthcare, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, a large and inefficient bureaucracy. In its current state Greece would build up debt and deficits all over again if the debts were forgiven tomorrow, says Tsipras. He is for Greece remaining in the eurozone. Tsipras understands the problems Germans have with putting money into Greece with the current state of economic management and lack of conscience of its elite, and why they see this as not fair. He suggests as a model for solving the Greece debt crisis, the London Conference of 1953 forgiving half of Germany's debts and putting the rest on a 30 year scheduled repayment. This would have to come with results in cutting bureaucracy, reducing corruption, and efficient tax collection for Greece democracy to work.

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Auto parts makers employ 600,000 workers concentrated in 7 states and also supply foreign carmakers in the USA. They are asking for access to TARP or other government money as they are feeling the effects of this downturn. Carmakers are using the stuy by the Center for Automotive Research that says 3 million jobs will be affected. However bankruptcy law allows the carmakers to continue to operate, and gives the automakers an opportunity to renegotiate all labor contracts on the basis of the new realities in the American economy, as demand collapses and credit is tight and companies need rescue money from the government. Douglas Baird, a Professor at the University of Chicago Law School who specializes in bankruptcy law says that this 3 million figure is laughable as modern bankruptcy law is designed to protect against that, in effect suggesting that companies like the airlines that are operating in bankruptcy can continue to operate as before but do so with serious restructuring.

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Iranian missiles and drones flying low and close to the ground avoided detection by Saudi and American air defense systems. The missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities stopping about half of the Saudi oil production. Iranian cruise missile technology was used for the attack, according to U.S. officials. The attack also showed how vulnerable the oil supplies from this region are to disruption. The U.S. is not dependent on Saudis for oil as it has increased its production from shale. China, Japan, South Korea and India are dependent on Saudi oil supplies. Yet the U.S. is shouldering a greater burden for ensuring reliable supplies to Asian countries, something the Trump administration sees it should be compensated for. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil hurt its economy, resulting in actions taken by Iran to disrupt Saudi oil supplies. The Saudi intervention in Yemen is another source of tensions in the region. The Trump administration says it is not interested in endless wars in the region, yet its tougher oil sanctions on Iran are pulling it into the conflict in unpredictable ways. China, India, and other countries had sought sanctions waivers to import Iranian oil, and see the sanctions as hurting oil supplies. India with limited supplies of its own was affected by the oil sanctions. ...

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This analysis by Julian Borger of the Guardian newspaper cites experts including former Defense Secretary Perry, on the problems with the Trump escalation of rhetoric with North Korea. The U.S. president promised "fire and fury" in a tweet he made, after the increased sanctions passed in the United Nations had already raised the pressure on the North. Perry says the president has no plans to back up what he says, which hurts U.S. credibility posture. The North Koreans responded by saying they are looking at an attack on the U.S. Guam air and naval base in the Pacific. Other experts warn of the danger of stumbling into something unprepared, and increasing the unpredictability with and adversary who is unpredictable to begin with. Wolfsthal, an expert from the earlier administration under president Obama, says the risk of escalation becomes very high because a miscalculation could take place. Rex Tillerson, the U.S. Secretary of State, tried to tamp down the stressful situation by saying that no action is planned. The U.S. insists it is open to negotiating, but the condition is North Korea putting the ending of its nuclear weapons and missile program on the table. The North Koreans have conveyed their opennesss to negotiate at a meeting in Manila, objecting to the U.S. "hostile" policy as an obstacle.    ...

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US president Biden feels the tax system is not fair for most Americans and the Trump tax cuts favored the wealthiest Americans. Detailed studies from universities Chicago, Harvard, Princeton and Treasury Department on 2017 Trump tax cuts lowering taxes for corporations from 35% to 21% for top corporate tax rate, and accelerated investment spending deductions, show much of the investment that took place after tax cuts in 2017 would have taken place anyway. And that the tax cut did not pay for itself, adding $100 billion to the national debt of $34 trillion each year. Striking was the point in the studies that said that instead of $4000 the average American only benefitted by $750 per year, most of the benefits going to the wealthiest and corporations. Many of the largest corporations tech and oil companies pay less in taxes than any notion of fairness would call for sometimes much less than ordinary workers.  Biden now proposes the tax increases for corporations to go up to 28%, higher taxes on foreign profits, and the corporate minimum tax increased from 15% to 21%. And for employees paid more than $1 million corporations not to be able to take deductions. ...

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In his campaign announcement for 2024 Mike Pence says "the Republican party must always be the party of the Constitution of the United States." Pence former US Vice President says he chose the Constitution over Mr. Trump on January 6, 2020. The Constitution of the United States of America says "We the People..," no one individual has importance. The actual words are- "We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, to establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common Defense, promote the General Welfare and secure the Blessings of Liberty on Ourselves and our Posterity, do hereby ordain and establish the Constitution of the United States." Mike Pence showed he understood the sacrifices of the founders and soldiers who fought for the Union against the British Empire and what it means to "secure the Blessings of Liberty on Ourselves and our Posterity."

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Mike Pence's recent comments show that the US Capitol attacks were a traumatic event for Pence and the country. Former Vice President Pence said- "President Trump was wrong. I had no right to overturn the election and his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know history will hold Donald Trump accountable." Pence said it was a disgrace, and it mocked decency to portray it any other way. President Biden's speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia talked about this situation that democracy faced in America, over 150 years after Abraham Lincoln made a similar speech in Independence Hall at the onset of the conflict that led to the emancipation proclamation.  Biden said- "We must never forget: We the people, are the true heirs of the American experiment that began two centuries ago." Speaking of the flame of liberty that was lit at Independence Hall Biden also said- "That sacred flame also burns now in our time, as we build an America that is prosperous, free and just." ...

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Trump asked him to put him above the Constitution of the United States of America. He refused, making clear his overriding commitment to the Constitution of the United States, says former vice president Mike Pence. More clearly one sees a different understanding and grasp of the meaning of the Constitution of the US by the two individuals. This is what is at stake in what Peter Baker in the NYT calls an issue that will decide the future of America as a strong democracy. Deeper still are the questions of education and culture that this has raised that will not go away even then. How do you build a democracy when as a people, as a political class, or as groups of people one is not jolted by the fact that two thirds of American fourth graders fail the reading comprehension test, an indication of the deep lack of knowledge of the basic history, geography and political structure of the Untied States of America across broad sections of the people.

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Greater awareness in Europe and the US that a global minimum corporate tax rate is needed for fair burden sharing to renovate decaying infrastructure. US president Biden takes the lead and France says it will follow. 

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Interview with Jim Press by Michelle Krebs of Business Week. It gives deep insights into the thinking of Toyota- its approach to the automobile business and the marketing of its cars. Being admired by the new generationof buyers, the perception of Toyota in the mind of buyers is important to Toyota. It will try to be strong in each community. The example of San Antonio is given so its roots will stretch deeper. Press tell Krebs that being part of the community is important for Toyota. See the related article by Ed Wallace, Business Week, May 25, 2006. Press says attrition is one of the reasons GM lost its high regard and perception with buyers. By that he means the older generations, two generations, that respected General Motors for its innovation and contributions, has passed away. This is replaced by younger people and a new generation which does not have the same recorded perceptions in its memory. In fact it may see just the opposite, in terms of Detroits attitude perceived as arrogant, in terms of fuel efficiency perceived as wasteful, in terms of quality perceived as not upto the higher bar set by the Japanese competition of Toyota and Honda. Toyota does not look like a pioneer in the ethanol vehicle field, so GM and Ford have a opening here they can use. Toyota will continue to set the bar higher on Quality. And this is not a company about to be complacent about its success . Press sees Toyota's success stemming partly from the failure of GM and Ford to maintain market share and only partly from its own better qualities. One of Toyota's goals is to keep increasing local content so it can show that its a truly American company to this new generation....

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Tony Blair on how far CHina has come and the culture revolution of abetter kind under way.

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Ashwani Lohani, head of the Railway Board for Indian Railways says the bullet train is creating a paradigm shift in how people travel in India. That the distance from the city where Mahatma Gandhi had his Ashram to Mumbai is covered in less time than it takes to travel by air is a huge shift for India. Some media reports have incorrectly stated that the money used for the bullet train could have been used for improvements to the railway system. Lohani says it is important that people understand that the money for the bullet train is coming from Japan and would not be available if the bullet train was not built. It is also at interest rates of 0.1% and a moratorium period of 15 years making the loans almost free. The advantage of the project is also that it has a demonstrative effect showing that a lot can be done in bringing Indian Railways into the pattern of rapid rail travel prevalent in Europe and now in China. China has shown the way by developing its rail system and also developing the technology for bullet trains using Kawasaki technology from Japan and building on this. It is imperative that India do this and modernize its own system. This is an aspect of infrastructure also that has a massive impact on people's lives. When trains can travel at bullet speed between city centres in India it also creates a new energy for bringing the rest of the system to higher technology standards.     ...

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The slow growth on spending in services is affecting economic recovery in the U.S. in 2011-2012. Spending on discretionary services since the second quarter of 2009- other than housing and health care- is up 2.8% according to Wall Street Journal analysis of Commerce Department data. This is affecting gym memberships, eating out, air travel, and other postponable purchases. By comparison spending on consumer goods is holding up better. Spending on goods was up 9.1% in the same period. This shows up in sales of autos, flat screen televisions, and other electronics. Alan Krueger, chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors, says services account for about half of GDP, and over half of jobs, and points to the lack of growth in discretionary services.

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The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute said the average fuel economy of all new passenger vehicles purchased in January 2012 was 23 miles per gallon, up 0.8 or 4% from December 2011. This includes cars, light trucks, minivans, and SUV's. Professors Sivak and Schoettle of the Institute also released a U.S. Eco-Driving Index, or EDI, which estimates average monthly emissions of individual U.S. drivers for Nov. 2011 at 0.86- this is down 14% from October 2007. The need to reduce reliance on imported oil for the U.S., Europe, China and India, the high price of oil, and the need to reduce automobile emissions to improve air quality, make improvements in average fuel economy and emissions per driver absolutely critical.

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Airlines are using the savings from lower oil prices to do do much neded upgrading and improvements on planes, for improving airport facilities and to reward employees. Airlines are investing at the best rate in 13 years. Much of the investment goes to upgrade service for business class travel. As planes are full airlines have little incentive to reduce fares. American Airlines says it wil invest $2 billion to improve service inside planes. Air France-KLM says it is spending $1.2 billion to refurbish planes and modenize airport lounges, ground services. IATA estimate is for airline industry profits to go up from $11 billion in 2013 to $19.9 billion, increasing to $25 billion in 2015, almost doubling in 2 years.

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The Economist points to ways in which the effort in Afghanistan might see success. More troops on the ground to avoid civilian casualties from air attacks and bombings which can antagonizepeople and create more young militants exposed to religious extremist propaganda, huge investment in development, piecemeal arrangements with the local tribes and powerbrokers including the Taliban, help to Pakistan and concentrating its mind on the effort in its frontier areas so close to its capital Islamabad. At the same time building support inside Pakistan for a liberal state that remains Islamic but keeps religion out of the state, and builds alasting peace in South Asia without getting mired in conflicts like Kashmir which it calls "intractable disputes" that may be bypassed for an overall peace.

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Some figures on the foreclosure situation. 2.3 million Americans faced foreclosure proceedings in 2008, 81% increase over 2007. 860,000 properties were repossessed by lenders, more than double the 2007 level, according to RealtyTRac a foreclosure listing firm in Irvine,, California. Moody's Economy.com predicts the numbers to go up 18% in 2009 before slowing through 2011. That is 2.71 million foreclosures in 2009. To prevent the foreclosure levels from getting much worse as unemployment drops, the new administration plans to use upto $100 billion of the remaining $350 billion TARP funds to help homeowners. The 4 states hardest hit are Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida. More than 1.1 million properties there received foreclosure notices, almost half the total nationwide. The hardest hit areas are in California, with the metro areas worst hit in order are Stockton, California, Las Vegas, Nevada, Riverside and Bakersfield, California, and Phoenix. In December more than 303,000 properties nationwide received foreclosure notices, up 40% from year ago month, and 17% above November 2008. At 303,000 the yearly rate is 3.6 million foreclosures or higher for 2009, so the Moody's estimate for 2009 must take into account acceleration of steps to help homeowners with the new administration. Are the rather modest steps taken upto now helping? RealtyTrac analysts estimate that without a state law requiring lenders to give borrowers a 30 day warning before starting the foreclosure process, the foreclosures in California would be 10% higher. There are similiar state laws in Massachusetts and Maryland. Throughout 2008 few steps were taken by the Bush administration to slow foreclosures, even though Republican economists like Martin Feldstein repeatedly advocated this. See links to Feldstein and Sheila Bair of the FDIC who also advocated aggressive action, and providing the numbers to show that it was costlier for lenders to see borrowers go into foreclosure compared to reducing principal and interest payments significantly. ...

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Theresa May, Britain's Home Secretary in the Cameron government, is a candidate for prime minister with the planned resignation of David Cameron by the fall of 2016. May was first elected to parliament in 1997 from Maidenhead, a town west of London. She was educated at Oxford University, worked in financial services and the Bank of England, before entering politics. She is known for hard work, a direct approach, and candor on policy issues. During a annual party convention she told Conservative party members that "our base is too narrow, and so occasionally are our sympathies," adding that people called Conservatives as the "nasty party." This was the period when Blair's Third Way was popular and Labor Party was in power. A daughter of a clergy man, she presents a rather austere image but reassuring in turbulent times with a down to earth and patient manner.  Her sports hero is a cricketer Geoffrey Boycott, known for taking long patient batting stands on the cricket  grounds- something Britain needs as it faces long and difficult negotiations with the European Union.  During the EU referendum she supported Cameron and the Stay campaign but quietly, so that she can be seen as the Unity candidate for the deeply divided Conservative Party. On immigration  she was as Home Secretary responsible for one of the difficult issues of the Brexit campaign- with net immigration at 330,000 in 2015 exceeding the 100,000 target set by Cameron. That she retains confidence from all segments of the party, as well as her education, experience, and resilience, may provide some of the "calm and composed" manner that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called for in the Brexit negotiation. ...

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Blair gets $500,00 for a 3 hour trip to a luxury housing development project. Extravagant expenditures by developers in China.