LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the WSJ says Puerto Rico is a failed welfare state and has similiarities to the problem in Greece with a bloated public sector (25% of the workforce in the public sector). It points out that the benefits are generous even though the employment is shrinking by 14% since 2005, as 300,000 young people have left for the U.S. since 2005. Welfare benefits it points out are $1743 a month compared to $1159 for minimum wage work. Puerto Rico's Governor Alejandro Padilla says the $72 billion debt "is not payable." Debt is 100% of GNP. Three public pension funds and the Electric Power Authority face serious problems. To manage its finances Puerto Rico has taxed ever higher, increasing sales taxes to 11.5%. The editorial says Puerto Rico is ready for a Detroit style restructuring of the debt, and rewriting of labor and other contracts following the U.S. giving access to Chapter 9 bankruptcy to Puerto Rico, doing this with orderly restructuring.

LyrArc Article Gist
Pensions amount to over 10% of GDP in Hungary, and its becoming harder to run these deficits, as international investors are no longer buying the bonds sold by the government to finance some of these deficits. In Eastern Europe, only Poland and Slovenia have as large a portion of GDP going into pensions. And for a population of 10 million people, Hungary has 3 million pensioners, far too many for the system to be able to support them. It is easy to join the pension system at an early age. The average Hungarian retires at 58, and only 14% of the people 60-64 are working. Getting disability, even if the disability does not prevent working, and becoming a pensioner, is considered attractive in Hungary as the pension payout at about 70% of wages or higher is generous. The pension is about 80,000 forints on average or $350 amonth, and the untaxed pension is close to the average after tax income of $500 in Hungary. Four million working Hungarians support the 3 million pensioners. And employers pay ahefty amount, discouraging new investment in Hungary. For an employee to take home 400,000 forints amonth payroll and income taxes can mount to 1 million forints. Politicians under the Soviet sponsored regime and more recently in the post soviet period have used the pensioner socialist bloc to win elections and are reluctant to disturb the situation. And under the privatization schemes, newly privatized companies simply dumped people off the state payrolls into the pension system , as generous payouts made it an attractive alternative to working. Now at a time when jobs are being lost and the economy is in trouble Hungary is having to address these generous pensions and because of the already strained finances has no stimulus in place for the economic downturn. Hungary imports heavily from Germany and Hungarians have borrowed heavily from Austrian and Italian banks. The deteriorating economic situation has led to a steep decline in its currency. And there is a fierce debate going on in the EU about rescuing Hungary. Deterioration in Hungary could create crises in other Eastern European countries like Czech Republic, Romania and others....

LyrArc Article Gist
The revised AIG rescue plan helps banks recover some of their losses on collateralized debt obligations and helps AIG by cancelling the credit default swaps it wrote on these CDO's, and thus helps shore up the financial system. This is what happened. During the boom period banks bought protection from the insurer AIG on securities backed by now-troubled mortgage assets. These securities are called CDO's or collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime mortgage bonds, commercial mortgage loans and other assets. Banks in the US, and Europe bought credit default swaps on these securities from AIG, and AIG promises to compensate them if the securites default. Now with the housing and the credit crisis the values of these CDO's plummet, banks go to AIG and AIG has to provide them collateral to help cover these losses of the banks. AIG ends up giving $35 billion in collateral to the banks including Goldman, Merrill, UBS, Deutsche Bank and others. The continuing fall in value of the CDO's meant AIG had to give more and more collateral to the banks leaving AIG severly exposed, which is along with other problems on its accounting books when the government stepped in in early October to bailout AIG with loans, with interest rates that became punitive for AIG leaving it in a struggling condition. What does the new revised plan do. It eases conditions on the interest rates and the New York Fed puts $30 billion of its money to buy the multisector CDO's at market prices averaging 50 cents to the dollar and AIG provides an additional $5 billion. With than one action banks get to recover their $35 billion and AIG gets to cancell its credit default swaps on these CDO's, in effect freeing AIG from thses swaps that were creating a hemorrhaging effect as it had to keep posting more and more collateral to banks, and banks got to recover the money on CDO's. In effect helping shore up the financial system. There are other problems at AIG but this was the biggest and most draining, and it helps AIG protect its other businesses, and banks get to put this dismal chapter behind them. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The failure of Nintendo's new handheld 3DS video game device to win market acceptance. Sales dropped to 710,000 in the last 3 months from 3.6 million the prior quarter. Nintendo has now made a big price cut from $250 to $170. The entire videogame industy is going through a transformation where a closed platform like Nintendo's is facing obsolescence. Today any device with a screen and an internet connection can work for videogaming. Companies such as Zynga have Facebook games such as "Farmville" and "Cityville." Mobile and social games are $1 or $5 and often free when they have advertising within the games. They can be readily acccessed instantly by downloading, Contrast that with Nintendo games for 3DS which can sell for $30 to $40. Nintendo has sold over 87 million Wiis and 147 million DS devices. But the sales are dropping precipitiously. Wii sales dropped to 1.56 million in the most recent quarter compared to 3.04 million in the prior year, and DS sales fell to 1.44 million from 3.15 million, according to Nintendo. As a whole game sales in retail stores including hardware and software are declining down to $995 million in June 2011 from $1.111 billion for the same month prior year, according to NPD Group. Microsoft continues to see an increase in its Xbox gaming business- with a 30% increase in sales to $1.49 billion for the last quarter for the division with the Xbox business. One reason is that this is a group of hard core gaming customers who prefer shooting and sports games including the use of a camera device called Kinect where body movements are used by players. In that manner this business is insulated from the overall trend where game developers are shifting to new technologies and developemnts such as Facebook and iPhone. Electronic Arts is focussing on the fast growth for popular games on the iPad....

LyrArc Article Gist
The engineering changes in the design of the 787 Boeing Dreamliner provide an experience in humidity levels, altitude levels, turbulence, and roominess that is not dramaically different but enough to provide a noticeably better experience. Nobumi Matsuda, who runs an eye clinic in Japan and is studying the eye health of pilots, says he expected more, that humidity levels were not enough. Boeing used the construction of the body of the jet using super strong plastics instead of aluminium, to create a small increase in humidity levels. The humidity level inside the Dreamlier is 10-15% compared to 4-7% in other airplanes. By pressurizing the cabin to lower altitudes there is a 6% increase in oxygen absorbed at the 6000 feet level at which it is set than the 8000 feet level, according to Boeing. Michael Grepo, a computer systems expert taking the Tokyo to Frankfurt flight on ANA, says he experienced an improvement in breathing, dryness of the nose and contact lens, but it was not a huge difference. Thorsten Hoffmann, a German sales executive says he did not notice till he got off the flight, when he realized that he felt good, had slept better. Othe changes are big overhead bins. The large windows are supposed to reduce motion sickness and provide great views on takeoff and landing. Boeing says "while it can be argued that the passenger comfort improvements are incremetal, the combination of so many improvements in one airplane is revolutionary in our opinion." At the customer level these are proving less revolutinary and more of a subtle type that add up to a noticeable improvement. Boeing now has on its hands a remarkable sales success, with 870 Dreamliners ordered by 59 of the world's airlines. A big factor from the airlines point of view is high fuel prices. The 787 is 20% more fuel efficient than the comparable size Boeing 767....

LyrArc Article Gist
A vivid and amazing account of the the earthquake and tsunami that hit the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, 35 miles up the coast from Sendai. It tells the story of where different people were that day, and the hours of their lives before and after the tsunami. Hiroshi Kaneyama, is the mayor of Ishinomaki, who is in Sendai that day attending a symposium on commercialization of algae. He would drive up to a dark town filled with water, and no electricity, and find his way to a Red Cross hospital command center. Toshikatsu Kumagai, is a 34 year old newspaper reporter, who will find himself driving at 3.30 pm that day on a bridge over the Satagawa river, on the western side of Ishinomaki. He spots the first 19 foot wave and tries to make a run for it, racing towards a fence before he was swept away. He finds himself in a landscape that has become part of the ocean. He jumps on top of a plastic tub and is rescued by helicopter 18 hours later. Most of the students at Okawa Elementary School who lined up outside the school when the tsunami alarms sounded, were swept away. Taylor Anderson, is an American teacher who teaches English to Japanese students at 8 schools in this coastal town. She has been in Japan for over 2 years. At Mangokuura Elementary School, Anderson helps students ont the playground and then jumps on her bike heading down Route 398, Onagawa Highway, which runs along the coast, to her apartment. She will never make it, and her body is found washed ashore days later. In this city alone 2,283 bodies were found, 2,643 people were missing, 23,000 in shelters. The town of Onagawa with 10,000 people, near Ishinomaki, was washed away. And this is only one part of northeastern Japan hit by the earthquake and tsunami....

LyrArc Article Gist
United Airlines has asked Airbus and Boeing to come up with competing bids for 150 new jetliners, an order worth an estimated $10 billion. After the 9/11 bombings, with the slowdown in air travel and the steep losses airlines suffered from high oil prices, its the overseas airlines that made the big orders. The domestic airlines were content to work with an aging fleet. United's move at this time may be calculated to take advantage of the improving credit situation, and the lower prices of steel and other commodities to get better pricing from manufacturers. The thrust of the order is to replace 11 of United's wide body fleet, the Boeing 747,757,767,and 777 model fleet. The average of these planes is 747-13 years, 777- 10 years, 767- 14 years, 757-17 years. See graph. The most crucual conditions United is looking for are financing arranged by the manufacturer that does not use United's cash, and the flexibility to change the order later if market conditions change. United sees this as amove to get good pricing and financing terms now so that when the planes are delvered over time, spread out over several years, the planes would come in just when air travel is picking up with an economic recovery. If it does not get the terms it wants, United may wait. It has already retired half of its oldest planes, the Boeing 737's, with the remaining half due to be replaced by end of 2009. United's competitor American Airlines, announced in fall 2008, that it wants to order upto 100 Boeing jetliners if it can get new agreements with its pilots union. In spring 2009 American speeded up deliveries of 737-800's to replace some of its old MD-80's. Newer aircraft mean better fuel efficiency, and ways to cover routes that are not possible with older aircraft....

LyrArc Article Gist
The IMF commmittment to troubled European economies is large, at $320 billion, 40% of its theoretical financing capacity, and exceeds its role in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Concern that the IMF is now helping politicians protect the eurozone. And fears that the lack of the option of devaluing currency leaves too much of the burden on cutting spending in the midst of a recession. Deficit reduction in the current situation will take years to happen.

LyrArc Article Gist
Analysts do not see how Greece could avoid restructuring its debt. Debt for Greece is expected to grow in coming years. The 110 billion euro bailout of Greece by the European Union and the IMF does not reduce Greek debt- as the bailout comes as more loans. The EU estimate is that Greece's debt will go up to 375 billion euros in 2013 from 298 billion euros in 2009. Kenneth Wattret, chief euro-zone economist at BNP Paribas, says the markets are already pricing in some form of restructuring. This would include some form of "haircut" for bondholders. A restructuring presents several problems. Brussels think tank Bruegel estimates 20% of Greece's government debt is held by local banks which are weak financially. These banks will need some help if they are to take new losses. About one third of Greece debt is held by pension funds and insurance companies and these institutions may have to be stress tested before taking losses. And 80 billion of the bailout money came from euro-zone countries as direct loans, this would mean losses for these lenders....

LyrArc Article Gist
The month of August 2011 ranks as the 10th worst month for U.S. stocks in 75 years. Or to put it another way of the last 900 months, the month of August 2011 ranks the 10th worst month in terms of volatiltiy. The average up and down movement each day in August was 1.%. In August the Dow Jones Industrial Averages were down 529 points, or a drop of 4.4%. This is not what worries investors as much- as their are months like May 2010 which had a 7.9% drop. The impact on investors is in the increased uncertainty that this creates about how an investment will perform in the future.

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ's Latour, Browne, Tejada and Wei interview Lou Jiwei, chief executive of the China Investment Corporation (CIC), China's sovereign wealth fund. He says it is too early to talk about eurobonds as the financial arrangements necessary have still to be put in place. CIC is reducing its exposure to Europe. CIC is interested in infrastructure investments and sees infrastructure investment as the way out of the economic crisis for the U.S. and Europe. He has the most confidence in investing in China. Other locations are in emerging markets Brazil, S. Africa, Latin America. CIC's target is to have 50% of the assets in long term investments in infrastructure investments, commodities, real estate and direct investment and private equity, etc. and the other half in public securities. But this will pose challenges and CIC has not reached this level. It is learning from ATP, the Danish pension fund, Calpers, TRS, and CPP, the Canada pension fund. The portfolio is mark to market which creates pressures to reduce short term volatilities....