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The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute said the average fuel economy of all new passenger vehicles purchased in January 2012 was 23 miles per gallon, up 0.8 or 4% from December 2011. This includes cars, light trucks, minivans, and SUV's. Professors Sivak and Schoettle of the Institute also released a U.S. Eco-Driving Index, or EDI, which estimates average monthly emissions of individual U.S. drivers for Nov. 2011 at 0.86- this is down 14% from October 2007. The need to reduce reliance on imported oil for the U.S., Europe, China and India, the high price of oil, and the need to reduce automobile emissions to improve air quality, make improvements in average fuel economy and emissions per driver absolutely critical.

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Credit default swaps on the $70 billion in CDS on Greece for different parties were activated in March 2012, resulting in payouts of $3.2 billion. This editorial points out that this happened without causing any tremors. Jean Claude Trichet as president of the ECB insisted in 2010-2011 that a default in Greece would result in systemic risks caused by the swaps and derivatives issued and in the contagion effects. The result was a delay in cuttting Greece's debt to sustainable levels with a private bondholder haircut that would have come much earlier. The delay and the burden of correction falling on austerity measures alone means Greece's economy is in much worse shape and debt still is not sustainable with Greece's rapidly declining economy.

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Heidelberg, in southern Germany, and smaller cities like Freiburg and Tubingen are seen as "green cities" in the sense that the people there have an open international outlook, are well educated, look at new ideas, and are idealistic. The Green party is in power in the southwestern state of Baden-Wurttemberg since 2011, where these three cities are located. Greens have about 20% support in elections here compared to 8% nationwide. Here Dr. Franziska Brantner, the representative in the Bundestag describes the orientation of people in the state. Heidelberg was able to handle the 600 refugees coming at the peak of the crisis very easily. Heidelberg's university, the oldest in Germany was founded in 1386. Students make up a quarter of the population of 156,000, and most of the Green party voters have university degrees, more than any other party according to Die Welt.

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As steel making capacity appears to be increasingly out of control in China in 2012-2015, trade actions to limit steel imports from China in other countries is growing. Huge excess capacity in steel, cement, glass, wind turbines and solar panels, is leading to China becoming the targe of global trade sanctions for 75% of the trade sanctions cases since 2009, according to research group Global Trade Alert.

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Austin, Texas and growth in "middle skill" jobs which offers ways to increase jobs growth in the U.S. in 2012-2015.

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India's Modi government is introducing a new plan to reduce rural poverty. It is implementing Universal Basic Income by depositing Rs 6000 or $84 directly to bank accounts of farmers with less than 5 acres. This helps 120 million poor farming families meet basic living needs in India, where rural poor often make less than a dollar a day. The cost of the program is $10.5 billion a year. The opposition Congress Party also has a plan for Guaranteed Minimum Income. India has national elections in May, and the government plan is also designed to fulfill promises of improving quality of living of Indians with the programs for Clean India, toilets and electricity for all Indians, bank accounts for all Indians, and series of other programs.  The advantage of the program as shown in a government paper in 2017 is that money goes directly to bank accounts avoiding corrupt middlemen or bureaucrats, and that it is possible in India to accomplish a lot by spending a relatively small amount to realize immense benefits. The Budget deficit for the year ending March 2019 will go up from 3.3% to 3.4%, and for year ending March 2020 go up from 3.1% to 3.4%- small increases relative to the immense difference in the lives of rural Indian families as a result. A series of programs for universal access to electricity, health care, toilets and clean sanitation, bank accounts and basic income, are designed to bring forth a New India different from the past. These programs are being implemented or put forward in the first term, with the Modi government looking for voter approval to push forward further development in a second term. The government paper on UBI in 2017 showed that in a country like India a small amount goes a long way in reducing poverty. By providing income of just above $100 a year to around 75%  of Indians, poverty can be cut from 15% to 1%. The paper shows cost at 5% of GDP which can be partially offset by reducing other government  subsidies. ...

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Growing the banking business right into the 2008 financial crisis - with the effects of the crisis playing out over the next decade- is one decision GE CEO Immelt has described as one he didn't do right. Moves in 2014 and 2015 were designed to focus GE on areas of its historic strengths. GE plans to sell $26.5 billion of office buildings and commercial real estate debt to Blackstone Group and Wells Fargo. This is after moves to spin off the private label credit cards and retail finance business as a separate company called Synchrony Financial. Most of GE Capital's $500 billion business will be sold off or spun off in 2015-2016, except for aircraft leasing and financing for energy and health care, which are related businesses. GE shares were up to $28.38, up 10%, in trading on April 9, 2015. GE Capital's shares were down to $6 in the 2008 financial crisis requiring an injection of government funds. Immelt's 13 years as CEO would end on a positive note with this move, as the role of GE Capital in contributing to the crisis is considered a blemish on his record....

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The LDP Party led by prime minister Abe wins 290 seats in the lower house of parliament in the Dec. 2014 elections. Its ally the Komeito Party gets 34 seats giving the government a two thirds majority in parliament. The LDP previously had 295 seats from the 2012 elections. Of the total 475 seats in parliament, 73 seats went to the opposition DPJ Party and 21 seats to the Communist Party. This gives Abe a 4 year mandate reducing the uncertainty from having a regular change in prime ministers in recent history, making Abe the 17th prime minister in 25 years. The stable government and clear economic policy will help the economy. Abe says he will focus on prodding companies to raise wages, as many people say they have not personally seen any benefit from Abenomics. As a result turnout hit a new low of 52% compared to 59% in 2012 parliamentary elections, with prospective voters showing their dissatisfaction by staying away. Severe winter weather and public confusion about why the snap election was being held may have added to low voter turnout. Other parts of the Abe agenda include restarting some of the 48 nuclear reactors offline since the Fukushima disaster. Abenomics faces hard work ahead as it grapples with two quarters of declining growth in 2014, consumers feeling the effects of the increase in the consumption tax from 5% to 8%, and small businesses feeling the effects of higher cost for imports with the weaker yen. ...

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After forming 2 governments, a majority government in 2015 and a minority government in 2019, Trudeau faces problems with his decision calling a snap election in 2021. This was based on the idea that voters were happy with the vaccination drive. Yet Trudeau's Liberals lead in the polls over the Conservative party has vanished. Voters are asking whether a new election was needed at this time.

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In a effort to boost slowing economies in the European Union, the head of the European Central Bank, Mr. Draghi, announces interest rates will remain unchanged till 2020. He also announced a fresh stimulus, offering cheap loans to jumpstart the economy. Economic growth forecasts were cut to 1.1% for 2019 down from 1.7% earlier. Growth of just 0.2% in the last quarter of 2018 prompted action by the ECB.

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Analysts point out that there is not much room for austerity cuts in Italy and Spain without cutting into muscle. This is because these countries have moved to make austerity cuts much earlier. Their budget deficits are actually less than what they were when they joined the euro currency zone. In the case of Italy the budget is actually in surplus, to the amount of 2% of GDP, when the financial position excludes interest on debt. And Italy has now moved to reduce the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2011. Under pressure from the ECB Italy has announced its aim of balancing the budget by 2013. Because both Italy and Spain have growth rates estimated at below 1% for 2011, analysts believe it is important to emphasize growth.

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A journalist embedded with American forces in Anbar province in 2007, describes the situation in 2015 after the many sacrifices of Iraqis and American soldiers. He tells the story of one Iraqi police captain he calls Ismail, who helped the U.S. forces turn the tide in Anbar province, and now finds himself a refugee in Baghdad.

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U.S. auto sales increased by 7.5% in October 2011. Chrysler sales were up 27% in October. Its Jeep vehicles had the best sales performance in 5 years. Jeep sales were up 25% and Ram pickup sales were up 21%. Ford Motor Company sales were up 6.2%, and GM sales were up 1.7%. Sales of Ford's F- series pickup trucks were up 7% and sales of Escape sport utility vehicles were up 30%. Lincoln sales declined 11%. For GM the Cruze small car and the Equinox crossover sales were up, while Buick sales were down 7% and Cadillac 12%. Because of limited vehicle supplies Honda and Toyota showed decline in sales by 1% and 7.9% respectively. The annualized seasonally adjusted selling rate in October was 13.26 million vehicles. Reasons given for the pickup in auto sales by analysts are that buyers had held off buying in 2009 and 2010 and are now back in the market as their vehicles show signs of aging. Hyundai sales were up 23%, VW's up 39.6% and Mercedes-Benz's sales up 28%.

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A confidential report made for the British government is leaked to Buzzfeed News. The report points out that under every plausible scenario the British economy would take a hit from Brexit even it it remains in the single market. In the best possible scenario that it remains in the single market after leaving the EU Britain's GDP would decline by 2% over a 15 year period. In the scenario where Britain made a comprehensive trade deal with the EU, yet remained outside the single market growth would be lower by 5% than current forecasts. Ever sector of the economy is negatively affected except agriculture, according to the report- "EU Exit Analysis- Cross Whitehall Briefing." The current situation is that of a transition period for Britain with the EU  giving Britain 21 months of membership benefits, without the power to form new EU laws. UK economic growth of 1.8% for 2017 is the lowest since 2012, with the decision for Brexit affecting the economy adversely. This even leaves open the possibility of a new referendum on Brexit in coming years. ...

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Vivek Wadhwa visits India's IT sector companies to take a first hand look at new developments in 2011-2012. He finds innovation in areas ranging from printer ink to medical diagnostic tools, all at low price points suited for India's large population and lower incomes.

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U.S. population growth from July 2012 to July 2013 was 0.72% with 2.25 million people added. The population stands at 316.1 million in July 2013, and is now in Dec 2013 at 317.3 million, according to Census Bureau. U.S. populaion growth has ranged from 1.8% in the 1950's to 1.2% in the 1990's. Lower immigration since the 2008 recession, low fertility, lower movement to more prosperous states, has lowered the growth rate. The South and West show population growing at about 1% in 2013, the Northeast and Midwest at closer to 0.3%. California has 38 million people, Texas 26.5 million, New York 19.7 million, Florida 19.6 million.

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The latest news from Catalonia ahead of the Dec. 21, 2017 election shows a hugely divided region in Catalonia, as prime minister Rajoy of Spain campaigns in Barcelona. The head of the left wing ERC party which is likely to win the largest share of the vote according to a poll in newspaper La Vanguardia was arrested along with fired ministers in the Puigdemont government. This time unlike the 2015 election ERC party says it will not join Mr. Puigdemont in a single pro independence bloc. Mr. Puigdemont is in exile in Brussels after declaring independence for Catalonia. Barcelona's mayor Ada Palau who won in 2015 on a platform showing support for people who suffered after the financial crisis and real estate meltdown, says she does not support the independence movement. Palau says Mr. Puigedemont and others "tricked the population for their own interests." She is critical of the way prime minister Rajoy handled the crisis including invoking Article 155 to dismiss the elected government for new elections. Palau has broken the pact with the Socialist Party. This shows a fragmented and divided population when it comes to independence. This BBC report says about half of Catalans today do not support independence for a complete break with Spain. ...

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Bilateral trade between China and Russia is down 31% for the first half of 2015, and Chinese investment in Russia down by 20%, according to Moscow Carnegie Center. This is a result of the fall in oil prices, declining demand for commodities in China, and the economic downturn in Russia. After the western sanctions on Russia Chinese investors are cautious about making investments. This means Russia's large expectations that this would act as an offset for economic relations with Germany and other western nations is not working out in reality. The contract for the second gas deal for gas from western Siberia, for which a memorandum was signed with China in Nov. 2014, was not signed during Putin's visit to Beijing in September 2015. Experts say the economic environment is not favorable for gas deals with the uncertain economic outlook in China.

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The Conservative Party under David Cameron won 330 seats in the British parliament, securing a majority in the 2015 general elections. The Labor party won 232 seats, losing 26 seats compared to the 2010 election. The Conservatives gained 24 seats. The Labor party lost very badly in Scotland, winning only 1 seat. The Scottish National Party won 56 of 59 seats in Scotland. Opinion polls underestimated the strength of the Conservatives whose campaign theme was jobs created under the Cameron administration. Austerity was a theme for the Scottish National Party and Labor, yet as Greg Ip reported in his column on the British economic recovery the Cameron administration adroitly managed this by relaxing deficit targets after 2012 forecasts on the deficit cutting could not be met with lower revenues. Labor was hit by the sense that the Tony Blair type liberal economics had failed to reverse the decline in real wages and jobs for working class people, and the Conservatives were taking on a tough situation with the deficit and the 2008-2009 recession that started under Labor. This hurt Labor in Scotland and in the rest of Britain. Labor leader Ed Balls lost his seat. The UK Independence Party fared badly winning only one seat and its leader Nigel Farage lost his seat. Prime minister Cameron promised a EU referendum for 2017 during the election, and he will now have to manage this issue as his party favors membership in the EU with some changes. The improvement in jobs was a strong point for the Conservatives, yet Britain faces wage stagnation with low productivity gains which will be a challenge for the new administration....

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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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Ireland and Portugal both have debt to GDP ratios of more than 100%. Still Ireland is better positioned to weather the eurozone crisis. Foreign investment attracted by low taxes and an educated labor force gives Ireland signficant advantages to return to growth. Citigroup forecasts show a 5.5% decline in GDP for Portugal in 2012, and large probabilities that the deficit will overshoot. Ireland expects 0.5% growth in 2012. Ireland's exports are 60% of GDP, compared to 24% for Portugal. Yields on Portuguese bonds due 2020 are at 13%, compared to less than 7% for Ireland. But funding Portugal through the end of 2015 is expected to cost 40 billion euros, according to Capital Economics estimates, or only 0.4% of eurozone GDP, making the problem in Portugal very manageable for the EU.

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China's GDP growth rate slowed to 7% in the 1st quarter of 2015, compared to 7.3% in the 4th quarter of 2014. China's Office of National Statistics reported industrial production growth at 5.65% year over year in March 2015, and fixed asset investment in the 1st quarter at 13.5%. The statistics agency reported unemployment at stable level of 5.1% for the 1st quarter 2015. Experts say the low unemployment is the one positive sign in the economy, easing pressures on economic policymakers to take action considering the high debt levels in the economy. As a result China can pursue selective monetary easing efforts and smaller, selective, better targeted stimulus.

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Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University, says the loan target for 2011, though smaller than 2010, will still be over one and a half times the money lent in 2008. Stephen Green, head of research for Standard Chartered, says if anyone is printing money, it appears to be China's central bank, not the US. During a meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing goals are being set for the next 12 months. One expert predicts the governmet may set official targets of 4% inflation (it is running at about 4.7% at this time) and 6.5 trillion yuan of lending in new loans in 2011, compared to 7.5 trillion in 2010. Questions remain whether China can manage a soft landing after the huge surge in lending and the continued asset bubble.

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The Labor Department reports that the U.S. added 255,000 jobs in July 2016.Unemployment remained steady at 4.9%. Of the jobs added, 70,000 were in business and professional services, 43,000 in health care, 38,000 in government mostly in local education, 18,000 in financial services. Yet growth remains slow at 1.2%. Businesses are willing to hire new employees, but reluctant to make new investments in the prevailing uncertainty. Wage growth for average hourly earnings was about 2.6% for the year. Improvements in the jobs picture is likely to influence the U.S. presidential election.

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The Labor Department reports that there is no U.S. productivity growth in the 4th quarter of 2014 over the prior year. U.S. productivity growth is about 1.3% for the period since 2009, showing a weak expansion. Job gains of 295,000 in February 2015 show an improving jobs picture, yet wage gains are tepid. This is partly due to slack in the labor market not reflected in the official unemployment rate of 5.5% for Feb. 2015, with a large number of part time workers who do not have full time work. The low productivity growth is another reason for low wage gains in this economic recovery. Economic growth is also weak with economists estimating GDP growth for the 1st quarter 2015 at 1.5% annualized. GDP growth is in the 2-2.5% growth range since 2009. Hourly wages are up less than 2% since 2009, with hourly wage growth in Feb. 2015 at 2% over the prior year. Weak business investment is part of the reason for the sluggish economic growth. Macroeconomic Advisors estimates the capital investment for equipment software and buildings is seeing growth of only 0.3% in the last decade, much lower than in the last forty years. With most of the gains from the internet technology advances already made there is less prospect of a sudden increase in productivity....