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Analysts and experts says Turkey faces a debt bubble like that facing Spain and Ireland. The budget deficits in Spain and Ireland were considered manageable before the banking crises in the two countries. Turkey's short term borrowing- most of the $221 billion in outside financing needed for the private sector in 2013 is in short term loans. The large current account deficit and rate of growth in credit approaching IMF warning indicators are a problem. Volatile capital inflows could reverse as investors look for safe havens with the continuing street protests in Istanbul. Earlier currency crises in 1993 and 2001 were currency crises from volatile capital inflows. Turkey's central bank is trying to manage this situation and has $100 billion in currency reserves. But it is the hidden buildup of external debt by banks and companies in Turkey that worries analysts like Richard Segal at Jefferies bank in London. A $400 billion public spending plan, over 50% of Turkey's $770 billion GDP, is being prepared by the Erdogan government for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state in 1923, showing that the scale of public spending is not under control. Analysts say at some point the huge credit bubble will burst, as it has in other countries including Spain, where the central bank appeared to have things under control. The street protests add political risk to the increasing risk for emerging markets with the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy shift to increasing interest rates....

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Keir Starmer of Labour says he stands behind every word in the ad that shows Tories including Sunak are weak in prosecuting crimes against woman and children. Labour says it will halve violence against women and girls. Starmer says- he will "make absolutely zero apologies for being blunt." That Labour will continue to use the Conservatives record on crime as legitimate criticism no matter how squeamish it made some people feel. "For the first time in my lifetime, everywhere you look from the economy to the NHS to the chaos on our streets- we have been set on a path of decline." Starmer said the last decade had seen the UK "become a country where thugs, gangs and monsters mock our justice system and make decent people's lives a misery." Starmer was head of public prosecution in Britain from 2008 to 2013. As early as 2002 he was Queen's Counsel. He was also a human rights adviser for Northern Ireland Policing Board and Association of Chief Police Officers. Starmer cites his work in improvements in Northern Ireland policing as one of the key factors in his decision to pursue a political career. The issue in the ad is a subject in which Starmer has much experience. ...

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Chinese government data show that inflation was 3.1% in May 2010. The spread of wage increases in manufacturing after a series of strikes at Hon Hai and Honda Motor suggest that price pressures will grow even further. Analysts warn that China's central bank will have to raise interest rates to control the boom in the economy and property markets; that merely reining in credit will not work. They also suggest the need for swifter action in revaluing the yuan. As wage increases spread throughout manufacturing, this will eventually be reflected in higher prices of end products.

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Fears about a property price bubble in China bursting with the central bank not able to control the economy. Increasing fears that China may not be able to control the bubble. Other countries where bubble effects are taking place: Canada where housing prices are accelerating, Brazil with expected GDP growth of 5.8% and "hot money" pouring in, India where inflation has reached 15% and $92 billion of foreign investment in Indian stocks and bonds, Australia with its hot mining sector with trade connections to China, South Korea with growth approaching 5% and high rates of household debt. GDP and property prices increased by 11% in China in the 1st quarter of 2010. Many of these economies have connections with China, including Brazil and Australia with commodities sectors dependent on China.

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Duncan Moore of the University of Rochester points out what makes Pittsburgh, San Diego and Rochester different from Detroit, Cleveland and Fresno. The investment in the local community, large universities and the research money they bring in, the small businesses using advanced technologies and connecting with the universities, have helped these communities thrive even when a dominant employer or a dominant business has suffered decline. In Detroit's case it is also learning some of these lessons- the areas around Detroit such as Dearborn are recovering with the recovery of Ford Motor Company, and the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor is a major research hub with large federal funding, the Fiat engineered recovery at Chrysler is also giving new life to the region.

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Oil prices are up and staying there longer in December 2011. The 12 month rolling average for oil prices for Brent crude oil is at $109, compared to $106 a barrel in September 2008, according to consultants JBC Energy. The situation is worse for eurozone countries because of the declining value of the euro estimated at between $1.16-$1.30 in 2012 depending on how the eurozone crisis is handled. The 12 month rolling average was 70 euros when Brent crude prices were at their high in 2008, compared to 78 euros today. France and Italy are seeing their current account surplus disappear with reduced exports and higher import bill for oil.

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Faces of the U.S. unemployment, foreclosure and housing crisis in Hagerstown, Maryland, in 2011.

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Shiller points out that statistical models used by economists can't quantify the risk of a double-dip recession. Confidence indexes show gradual trends so they too are poor at picking up the dangers inherent in the increasing levels of uncertainty and the increasing vulnerability of confidence in the economy. The potential of sudden events in derailing confidence is great. He cites the 10 percent drop in the U.S. stock market on May 6, as one example. And the potential of the BP oil spill creating havoc for the Gulf economy is another such event. Shiller says his definition of a douple dip recession looks at the long term, and doesn't see the short term as a way to correctly read the economic situation. He sees a douple dip recession as a rise in unemployment to high levels, and becomes sticky after that, only nudged down insignificantly. Before unemployment can be brought down a second recession occurs, and there could be years in between. Shiller's Buy-on-Dips stock Market Confidence Index prepared since 1989 shows a steady decline in individual investor confidence since 2009....

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Patricia Kowsmann provides this picture of life in a town on Portugal's northern coast, Viana do Castelo, with a population of 87,000, as Portugal struggles to make a recovery. Viana do Castelo has shipyards and companies making metal bridges for highways. The money losing state owned shipyard was privatized and sold to Martifer SGPS SA to run till 2031. 600 workers at the shipyard were laid off. The new company plans to rehire 400 workers by 2016 but jobs will not be permanent. Companies making the bridges now sell to former Portuguese colonies of Angola, Mozambique, Brazil. 200,000 people have left the country to look for jobs or higer education, including the mayor's daughter in London. Exports are up and now make up 40% of Portugal's GDP, up from 27% in 2009. The economic growth is 0.9% in 2014, after declining 6% 2011-2013. Portugal accepted the last instalment of the bailout loan of 78 billion euros in 2014. It will auction 1.25 billion euros of bonds on July 22, 2015. Unemployment is now declining dropping to 14% from a high of 17%, and higher than the pre crisis level of 11%. Here in this coastal town the mayor Jose Maria Costa cut public employee salaries 15%, and also cut sports and cultural programs. Two food centers provide free lunch and dinner, and half of the 4000 children in school get subsidies for food and transport. A shipyard worker Antonio Gomes Barbosa 64, is one of the laid off workers. His son's architecture company closed and he left Portugal for Angola. Some of his co-workers now work at a shipyard in neighboring Spain....

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This response by experts on transatlantic relations rejects the other view expressed in Zeit Online that the U.S. under Trump remains estranged from Germany and the EU. These experts from the American Institute for German Contemporary Studies, American German Council, and Centers at John Hopkins and Georgetown for German Studies, reject the view that the Trump administration and Germany are that far apart on many issues as it appears from media coverage.  Foremost it points out that civil society relations are sound and growing. About 50 million Americans trace their descent to Germany, including president Trump, much larger to over half the U.S. population considering European descent. Much larger is the sense of a culturally shared future with the European Union, with the nations of Europe including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the nations of Eastern Europe, and Britain. The civil society relationships run deep in a way that is hardly affected by the Trump administration. Within the Trump administration the policies to Europe these experts remind the reader, are determined by the "adults" in the administration, who are senior members of the administration. This is a crucial point as Trump administration policy is not determined by the president's liking for tweets as much as by senior cabinet members Tillerson at the State Department, Gen. Mattis at Defense, Kelly at the White House, and senior members of Congress including Senators Corker and other senior committee members. This is why Republican Senator Kay Hutchinson was chosen as Ambassador to NATO. It should be noted in this context of German-EU relations in president Trump's first year that there was a period of German disillusionment with president Obama, exacerbated by the NSA spying on German chancellor Merkel and on the EU delegation to the UN, with president Obama's failure to offer any apology. Relations recovered from that low point. No one suggested that there be a German led decoupling of the EU with America at that low point, or at another low point in German-U.S. relations with the setup of American Pershing II nuclear missiles on German soil under the Reagan administration when there were large scale protests.  The American view that the U.S. should not have to shoulder major responsibilities for defense and foreign relations by itself is not new say these experts, and goes back to earlier administrations before Trump.  The experts argue for an active role by Germany with its partners in Europe for defense and foreign relations, which should not be seen as a result of U.S. pressure, only responding to the situation as it has evolved upto this time. Views on immigration are also changing with effort by the EU and Germany, France, to reduce immigration from the source countries in Africa, and the changing perceptions about uncontrolled immigration in Germany and France, say the authors. A coordinated policy towards Russia  is seen as not having changed. And much as a reset in relations was advocated by Obama in the first year of his first term, the current policy of the Trump administration to work with Russia to lower tensions can be seen in the same way say these experts, and not as a fundamental shift in American policy. The deep relationship of Germany and the EU with China is another positive aspect that will also help the U.S. in framing its own policies towards China. The German-American relationship, and the European Union relationship with the U.S.  is seen as basic to the values and interests of the U.S. and Europe. This relationship is too deep and supported by civil society and Congress, the Republican Party, and the Democratic Party, by large trade relationships, to be affected by temporary differences under any one administration. Even these differences are part of a larger debate that is part of dialogue on issues in a democratic society, sometimes raucous and loud, and could be welcomed and carefully channelled in constructive ways.     ...

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The yuan has risen 14.5% against the yuan in the last 4 months, according to the Chinese Commerce ministry. Loosening the Chinese currency's peg to the dollar will increase the value of the renminbi even further. And with further declines in the euro expected this would seriously affect Chinese exporters to Europe. This also makes European goods more competitive than American goods in the Chinese market putting the Obama's administration's goal of doubling exports further at risk. The Shanghai stock index declined by 5.1% on Monday May 17, 2010, reflecting these concerns. The Chinese government continues to intervene in currency markets and the renminbi is now at 6.827 renminbi to the dollar.

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It is too much to expect central bankers to solve the US economy's problems, especially with rates nearly zero, and no agreement between the political parties before mid-term elections. The Federal Reserve by itself cannot fix the economy's problems, with the US economy facing prospects of deflation in 2011; and local governments cutting back as they face revenue shortfalls. Deficit concerns have led to inaction on further stimulus or help to local governments, and the Bush tax cuts are expiring shortly. In 2011 austerity cuts will be the singular theme in the western world, and these cuts are of a magnitude not seen in 40 years. In this situation there is only so much the US Fed can do.

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The CBO annual report on the budget and economic outlook shows a deficit of $1.1 trillion for the current fiscal year, a decline of $200 billion from the prior year. Health care spending is a key factor driving the deficit. Cost of spending on healthcare programs is expected to double in the next 10 years, increasing by 8% a year and reaching $1.8 trillion in 2022.

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A shocking statistic. Of the 12 metropolitan areas in the US with over 15% unemployment, 10 are in California, and this is because the construction industry has taken a severe hit. It lost 74,000 jobs in the 12 months ending in June 2010. From June 2006 to June 2010, this industry in California lost 43% or about 402,000 jobs. And the construction industry is still shrinking there. One reason why the unemployment rate in California is 12.3%. The overbuilding during the boom makes it that much harder to rebuild. The construction industry has been hard hit in Los Angeles and Riverside metro areas and in Napa and Solano counties.

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Turkey increases security at its borders limiting the flow of refugees and to control terrorism.

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Wealth for top 7% of U.S. households averaged $3.2 million in 2011, compared to $133,817 for the other 93% of the population. Third quarter 2013 household net worth is 615% of after tax income, up from 570% in 2012. The uneven distribution of household wealth and the gains from the stock market recovery going disproportionately to wealthier investors, does not provide strong enough underpinnings for robust consumer spending.

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The Muslim Brotherhood is thrust into a critical role as economic policymaker after winning the parliamentary elections in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood's foreign policy advisor, Essam El-Haddad, says it gave the IMF its tentative approval for a $3.2 billion loan to Egypt. Haddad says it was a very, very short time for the learning process to occur about the economic issues facing Egypt and the IMF. Foreign investment peaked in 2007 at $13.7 billion. It is now a small fraction of this and tourism earnings have declined to a third of what they were before. The Brotherhood cites the example of Turkey where the Islamist Justice and Development Party formed the government in 2002. At the time Turkish inflation was at 55%, the currency Turkish Lira had lost 51% of its value and GDP fell by 5.7%. Turkey has seen high economic growth in the last decade.

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Merkel expresses her support for Portugal during a meeting with prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho of Portugal in Lisbon on Nov. 11, 2012. In a news conference which was live on German television Merkel said: " I feel a great sense of determination here in Portugal to overcome this difficult phase." Recognizing the cost of austerity measures and spending cuts, the 16% unemployment rate, Merkel added: " I know that its very hard for some people. Unemployment is high, especially among young people. Consequently, Germany in particular wants to support Portugal through professional training for young people." The German chancellor is travelling with a German business delegation which is meeting with Portuguese executives to determine areas for German cooperation with Portugal to generate growth in the economy.