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Civil charges to be filed by securities regulators against Anthony Piszel, Freddie Mac's chief financial officer from 2006 to 2008.

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As Washington Post writer points out from personal experience- he is one of those who put up 15% to buy ahome inDenver at the top of the market and now has negative equity as prices drop- negative equity is one of the most serious problems facing the US economy. It has the potential to undo many of the encouraging things from the stimulus, as rising foreclosures continue to act as adrag on the overall economy. As he says about one fourth of Americans with home mortgages, or about 11-15 million people, owe more money on their homes than the market value of their homes. As Hoffman says the administration's approach has been a Band-Aid at best for a serious injury. The Obama administration set aside only $75 billion to get banks to modify loans and also made this voluntary for banks to modify loans. Treasury Secretary Geithner testified in Congress: "This is a conscious choice we made, not to start with principal reduction. We thought it would be dramatically more expensive for the American taxpayer, harder to justify, create much greater risk of unfairness." But making it voluntary means very little of this $75 billion has gone to help achieve modifications- banks had no incentives to do this. Only 31,000 permanent loan modifications have been made. Of the 750,000 temporary loan modifications made as of Dec 2009 only 4% of homeowners signing up have qualified for permanent federal relief. See the links to Martin Feldstein's proposals for this on the pages of the Wall Street Journal in 2008 and 2009 which called for aggressive program of relief for the sake of the economy. With 2.4 million Americans likely to lose their homes in 2009 according to Moody's Economy.com estimates, following the 2 million in 2009 and 1.7 million in 2008, this may be a serious mistake of the Obama administration and drag out this recovery....

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Progressive caucus in the US House of Representatives led by Pramila Jaypal, a first time Indian American Congresswoman defeats an attempt by Josh Gottheimer of the Problem Solvers caucus to separate much of the president Biden's agenda in health, education and social policy and risk it being defeated by Senators Manchin and Sinema in the US Senate. Without the efforts on child care, education and health, climate change and social services part of the Biden Workers and Families Plan much of the Biden agenda would remain unfinished and Democratic party promises not kept. This also means that Manchin a Senator from West Virginia with a population of 1.8 million and Arizona with a population of 7.2 million, both conservative leaning Democrats could sink the entire agenda of president Biden to support American families and workers for a population of 331 million people. That two states with a population of less than 3% of the American population could sink the entire agenda of president Biden shows how fragile a situation has been created within the Democratic party to support workers and families even during the pandemic following the leadership of Carter, Clinton, and Obama Ms. Jaypal, a three term Congresswoman from Seattle, Washington state, was first elected in 2016 with an endorsement from Bernie Sanders who was the Democratic Party's leading candidate for president till the late stages of the 2020 US presidential primaries. Bernie Sanders says of Jaypal- "I think she is doing an extraordinary job. And I think the Progressive Caucus is doing an extraordinary job." Sanders founded the Progressive caucus after getting elected to the Senate from Vermont 30 years ago. Even though it is hard to imagine the Democratic party being the Democratic party without bold policies in climate change, affordable housing, reducing income disparities,  investing big in childcare, education and healthcare, attempts were being made to sink the entire Democratic party and national agenda going back to Franklin Roosevelt. Jaypal is described in the WSJ as diplomatic and firm, saying "I am so proud of our caucus; I have never seen our caucus so strong. And I am a very good vote counter also." Fifty members of the 100 member Progressive Caucus held firm in support of president Biden's original agenda without which the president would have little to show in keeping promises he made to the American people in the election and little to differentiate him from Mr. Trump who also supported infrastructure spending. Separating the infrastructure bill would have risked sinking Mr. Biden's plan for recovery of America from the pandemic and the devastating policies pursued by American presidents in the last two decades. Policies by previous presidents that have impoverished the country, created huge income disparities, weakened America in the world in trade and technological leadership, and wasted resources in foreign wars. There are no centrists or far left- these are just labels. When Ms Japal said "Let's just remember the Speaker (Nancy Pelosi) is a great champion of this agenda. I think she was trying to do as much as she could to get this done," she could have said it is Mr. Biden's own agenda pushed forward with conviction to help workers and families during the pandemic, and build a solid American recovery, restore American leadership in the world. Pramila Japypal is the first Indian American woman in the US Congress, and one of only two dozen naturalized American citizens in the US Congress. That she could play such a critical role for good in the US Congress shows that with the right convictions, determination, experience, much can be done for the common good in America and the world.   ...

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Sales of large pickup trucks have climbed back to 14.2 % of the US light vehicle market, close to the 14.7% at the end of 2005 with discounts and interest free financing that together take $40000 to $6000 off the pickup truck's price. Toyota is pushing its Tundra aggressively and has seen Tundra sales grow by 55% since the no interest loans and redesigned Tunra came into the market. The financing puts a subsidy for paying the cost of rising gas prices. But can this sales increase be sustained in the long run because there are only so many buyers and the housing crisis will be more acute in 2008.

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Stiglitz wants to put money in places where it will be spent immediately, unemployment compensation, in state and local governments hands to build critical infrastructure, state education budgets and environment spending for benefits in the long run, only limited help in the mortgage mess to the deserving and to reduce foreclosures, and no money to upperclass Americans who won't be spending much of it anyway.

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With the effects of the government tax credit fading, Commerce Department numbers show a 33% drop in sales of new single-family homes from 446,000 units in April to 300,000 annual rate in May 2010. The supply of homes for sale went up by 47% to 8.5 months in May from 5.8 months supply in Aprill 2010.

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The 3000 delegates at the annual China party Congress and premier Li Keqiang showed support for President Jinping as the Congress makes changes to the constitution. The constitution was amended to include a reference to Mr. Xi's political theory, that the Communist Party would lead the country as it implements socialism with Chinese characteristics, creating a new anti-corruption commission that has party oversight of all public servants. As Mr. Jinping, 64 years,  begins his second five year term, to ensure continuity and stability the clause in the constitution that limits a president to 2 five year terms was removed. Wang Chen is the Congress vice chairman and he led the anti-corruption campaign in China that firmed up popular support for Jinping in China. Wang Chen explained that the term limit changes were designed to bring presidential tenures more in line with Mr. Xi's other positions as Party chief and military commission chairman, positions with more power and no formal term limits.  The process is part of government restructuring that puts the Communist Party more in charge of decision-making.   There was some instability under the administration before Jinping and growing corruption had undermined confidence in the Party, just as China's economy was slowing, with a bubble in real estate, high debt to GDP and need to pursue a soft landing for the economy. The present effort say some delegates including the president of Haier Appliance, is an effort that stable economic policies can be pursued to ensure China's future as its society ages, and the need to complete modernization in parts of the country that have not seen the gains seen in the coastal regions. And that corruption does not undermine the party's credibility to lead this change. The huge economic problems China faces, bigger now from a public interest perspective of pensions, social security in the Chinese context for an aging society, bringing the rapid development of the coastal regions to the interior of the country, housing, the high debt to GDP ratio, and need to ensure good economic growth to provide a stable economic foundation, may have led to a sense that a stable political foundation was needed to ensure this takes place. Political stability was affected during the previous Hu Jintao administration with the Bo Xilai episode when the party unity was affected as "some  party cadres and leaders were giddy and feverish on the waves of the market economy" as Jinping put it at Central Party School in 2013. Mr. Jinping grew up amid such tensions as his father a senior party leader went out of favor first with Mao and then with Deng after the Tiananmen protests. This instability in the country that affected economic progress is part of the experience of older Chinese leaders and affected their perception of events from memories of this period. Some of the media coverage on this topic can be misleading, as it is important not to forget that China suffered for 2 centuries in the nineteenth and the twentieth century -with British invasion in the nineteenth century and Japanese invasion in the twenty first century followed by the chaos of the Cultural Revolution before finally finding a way out of poverty and backwardness in the final decade of the twentieth century and the first two decades of the twenty first century.  ...

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Cohan says the average investor will be left holding the bag, once Wall Street realizes the Facebook valuation has been overhyped to suit insider investors and Goldman Sachs.

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Some insights into the thinking of Robert Rubin from an interview by Ken Brown and David Enrich with the former Treasury Secretary in the Clinton administration about the 2008 financial crisis. As Justice John Paul Stevens. the longest serving Supreme Court justice on the bench once said, those who administer the judicial system form the backbone of the law. In a like manner those who administer the financial and economic system form its backbone, which is why Rubin faces some tough questions in this interview. At the time he was Treasury Secretary, the NYT magazine ran a story on Robert Rubin, as the kind of person who liked to put things down rationally on a note pad, and think things through on the basis of this rational analysis. This is how he approached the Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Here is some of that note pad Rubin, in the context of CDO's and risk taking, with something gone awry. Risks that according to this NYT report Rubin encouraged at Citigroup in 2004 and 2005, on the basis of the idea that Citi's competitors were taking on more risk and making bigger profits. His note pad approach appears to have led to conclusions by Rubin that considering the additional profits that could be made by Citi by ramping up the risk taking in 2004 and 2005 and afterwards like its competitors, it could lead to losses if things went wrong, but these losses would'nt come close to wiping out the profits made during the good times. The cyclical downturn he expected to see in 2004 and 2005 when he is reported to have added his voice to others that the bank take on more risk, was a cyclical downturn of the type he had seen during the 1994 Mexican devaluation and the 1997 Asian financial crisis. He had no idea that it would be a cyclical undervaluing of risk added on to a housing bubble, and to a triple A ratings issuance that was misguided. Rubin says here that there was hardly anyone who saw that low-probability event as a possibility. Was the housing bubble a low probability event, and were the issuance of ratings by the credit ratings agencies compromised by the drive for more business a normal pattern, or would some digging up of facts and some innate skepticism of the prevailing current in favor of one's own instincts that something was overdone missed in the notepad analysis of a supposedly rational approach? Or was there a feeling that somehow the U.S. with its long tradition of technology, its work ethic and sophisticated financial system was somehow immune to something as severe as what the Asian countries were experiencing in 1997, or what happened in the 1930's. Asked about his view of what happened Rubin says that looking back there was an enormous amount that needs to be learned. Rubin is also in a quandary when he has to respond to the public concerns about excessive executive compensation. Rubin made $115 million in pay since 1999, excluding stock options, while under his purview as the highest ranking board member Citigroup let some of the problems that it faces now accumulate. As Citigroup faces $20 billion in losses in 2008, a bear raid on its stock by short sellers who ironically were able to do this because of some of the lax regulation set in motion in the Rubin Greenspan years leading to the suspension of the Uptick rule, and the $45 billion government bailout last week. Rubin may have helped Citi but in a different sort of way. He was able to persuade Treasury- Treasury Secretary Paulson was a fellow executive at former employer Goldman Sachs- through the days before the bailout, ensuring government help was on its way. Citigroup shares had dropped to $3.77 a share in the third week of November 2008, losing 50% of their value in one week, as the discussions took place. ...

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On the production side output has fallen to an estimated 1.6 million barrels a day(U.S. government and independent analyst estimate) from nearly 3 million barrels a day in 1998. But even this is an estimate, PDVSA says its daily output is about 2.2 million barrels a day, and plans to boost it 4 million barrels a day by 2012. PDVSA points out that the oil exports to the US have remained steady at 1.5 million barrels a day. The content links to oil policy are 1. PDVSA direct involvement in economic development and social goals. 10% of annual investment budget to go to socail programs or about $1 billion a year. For private oil companies in joint ventures with government 3.3% of the local investment budget is required to go to social programs. Oil service companies include community projects such as low income housing in their bids. And spend 5% of the value of the contract in hiring worker owned service companies. Adding road construction and subsidized food programs the spending approaches $8billion for 2005 according to PDVSA. quote: "its not easy... but there will be no more projects with their backs turned to our reality." Rafael Ramirez President of PDVSA told industry executives in June. 2. According to the WSJ PDVSA's diminished production has cut world output by more than 1 %. PDVSA's 2004 financial results show exploration investment was only a meager $60 million in 2004 down from a small $174 million in 2001. Current wells are so old that that the ir output declines by about 23% a year, drilling new wells only keeps production levels stable. This decline can be seen also in the backdrop of the major strike in late 2002 and early 2003. At the time Chavez fired 19000 employees of PDVSA who opposed his policies. The employment levels are only now back to pre-strike levels. ...

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By September 2009, says the NYT based on a state by state analysis of Labor Department numbers, 1 out of 4 persons in California will either be out of work or just working part time. At this time in July 2009, 1 in 5 persons in California are in this situation. This would mean a 25% unemployment/underemployment rate in California, and the rate in Florida, North Carolina and Washington could reach 20%, by September 2009. This spring the unemployment/underemployment rate reached 23.5% in Oregon, 21.5% in Michigan and Rhode Island, and 20.3% in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and some other states that rely heavily on manfacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20% this spring, and may have since passed that number. And so far only $90 billion of the stimulus has made it out the door according to Moody's Economy.com. From now until the end of 2010, an additional $25 billion or thereabouts will be spent every month. In most of the Great Plains States and the Mountain West the unemployment/underemployment rate was still below 12% in spring 2009, and in North Dakota as low as7.8%. But these states are getting adisproportionate share of the stimulus fund, which shows that the allocation of stimulus funds needs to be adjusted. Who are these parttime workers and how many are there? Take Richard Smith and his wife Lyn. They left Michigan where he worked for GM and Ford in white collar jobs till he was laid off. Mr Smith moved to Charlotte, N. Carolina last summer. He hasn't found full time work after sending in hundreds of applications. He now works a few days aweek at agolf shop, repairing clubs and making $9.50 an hour. With the help of that money he has bought abargain-basement foreclosed house. Part time workers like the Smiths comprise about one third of the 20% unemployment/underemployment rates in states like Michigan and Oregon, so the rate for those who are completely out of work is around 13% in these 2 states....

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Gretchen Morgenson of the Times distills key insights from 633 page report by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission. Morgenson points to the role of the Federal Reserve in Washington and New York in being as she describes it, defiantly inert and uninterested in controlling the mortgage bubble even when it had grown to enormous proportions.The problem now is that the same Fed has received more regulatory powers under the Dodd-Frank law. The same Fed repeatedly did not exert its authority on predatory lending. Page 94 of the report cites a total of only three institutions referred to prosecutors by the Fed from 2000 to 2006. Page 164 shows why there have been so few prosecutions for mortgage fraud from the bursting of the mortgage bubble. William Black, a former fraud investigator and professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law, says the FBI has received virtually no assistance from the regulators, the banking regulators and the thrift regulators. The report contains some outrageous comments by one of the key players in fueling the mortgage bubble, Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide Financial. Morgenson describes him as a lender that roped unsuspecting borrowers into poisonous loans. Mozilo says in an interview on page 105 that his company prevented "social unrest" by providing loans to 25 million borrowers, many from minority groups. Never mind that this wave of poisonous loans has clogged the arteries of the nation's financial system, and resulted in foreclosures for millions of homeowners, creating a troubled housing market that hobbles the economy. Neil Barofsky, special inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, sees further bailouts ahead. He said in a report to Congress in late January 2011: "Unless and until an institution like Citigroup is either broken up, so that it is no longer a threat to the financial system, or a structure put in place that it will be left to suffer the full consequences of its own folly, the prospect of more bailouts willl potentially fuel more bad behaviour with potentially disastrous results." ...

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The ABX Index which tracks subprime bonds is showing signs of recovery. The prices for representative parts of the subprime bond market have doubled from a low of 30 cents on the dollar to about 60 cents. This is happening as investors and some companies are taking on more risk and finding lenders. This is helping push up prices of commodities, junk bonds and stocks. The larger yields on the subprime bonds are attracting investors. Non-agency bonds- bonds not backed by Fannie and Freddie- yield between 5% to 7%, above the 4% yield on high quality corporate bonds and the 3.5% yield on U.S. government bonds. Demand for these bonds is growing. Companies that invest in these sub-prime bonds such as MFA Financial were buying $100 million of these bonds in 2010, and have increased this to $300 million a month recently. MFA Financial is able to do so because it can find funding from lenders who are now not as worried about the risks of these subprime bonds. Another development in this market is the offer of AIG to buy back apool of bonds that the Federal Reserve had taken over from AIG during the financial crisis of 2008. AIG offered to pay $15.7 billion for the pool of bonds with a face value of $30 billion. The Fed cited a high level of interest from investors and rejected that offer. The Fed will now let investors bid for these bonds to maximize its gain on these bonds. In another development even conservative investors such as four large life insurers are looking at buying these subprime bonds. Scott Robinson, a senior vice president of Moody's Investors Service, says the high levels of capital available is leading to a re-risking of balance sheets, even though it is not back to the old days yet. Considerable risks still remain in the housing market according to Nouriel Roubini and other experts....

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China's State Internet Information Office chief Lu Wei, 54, is a Communist Party official who assumed office in 2013. He attends many of the internet conferences and gatherings in China and overseas, loudly explaining China's Communist Party line that "respect for national sovereignty" on the Internet should be adhered to. Mozur and Perlez reveal the vigorous personality of Lu Wei as he argues for this view of the Web at gatherings, in sharp contrast to the way younger generation social media users and business users see the internet. Lu Wei spent his early years as bureau chief of the state owned Xinhua News Agency in southern Guangxi Province. He was promoted to positions as secretary general and vice bureau chief at agency headquarters, and to vice mayor of Beijing in 2011, chief of the city's propaganda department. He came into prominence following an article in the Communist Party journal "Seeking Truth," after pointing out that China needed to manage the way information about the country and the Party is presented using the new information technologies. He also perceived the risks posed by distorted or incorrect information to financial markets, and economic security. This was confirmed the following year with the rapid spread of reports about a high-speed rail crash in Wenzhou, China, and in numerous other incidents following this, as social media reports that could not be confirmed spread quickly in out of control fashion. He now is the director of a new Central Internet Security and Informatization Leading Group, headed by president Xi Jinping, with the task of coming up with a policy for balancing views of openness needed for the economy with government views on internet oversight. This is not only a political matter, as Chinese officials face the challenge of how to get the public to vent views on critical matters such as public anger about pollution, food contamination, contractors and badly constructed housing in a recent earthquake, mismanagement in the railways ministry, and a whole range of issues related to economic development, health and public safety. ...

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U.S., UK and Swiss regulators charged UBS AG with conspiracy to rig the London Interbank Offered Rate or LIBOR. LIBOR is the interest rate at which large banks lend to each other and is determined from daily reports made by 16 banks to the British Banking Association, giving the rate at which the bank borrows from its peer banks. This rate helps determine the rate for trillions of dollars in securities, home and auto loans, swaps and derivatives. A tiny movement in LIBOR can affect trading profits, and it influences perceptions of a bank's health particularly in a crisis such as the 2008 financial crisis. Every day a 16 bank panel reports this rate to British financial authorites. UBS took full responsibilty and pleaded guilty to criminal fraud. UBS settled the charges for $1.5 billion. Barclays PLC, a UK bank, settled charges for LIBOR manipulation in mid 2012 for $450 million, ending in the departure of the bank chairman and CEO. Britain's regulator the Financial Services Authority, FSA, says in its report that rigging the rate was "routine and widespread" at UBS in order to increase trading profits, done with the knowledge of senior managers, and included cash awards or trading opportunities to employees at other banks to participate in manipulating the LIBOR rate. During one period of 18 months UBS paid 15000 British pounds to a firm of outside brokers every 3 months. FSA says LIBOR and versions of it are "at risk of being improperly influenced " between Jan. 2005-2010. What this means is other large settlements with other banks can be expected. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have lost $3 billon from this manipulation of LIBOR, according to an internal report from the inspector general of the Federal housing Finance Agency, which also says Fannie and Freddie should sue the banks responsible. The whole issue of LIBOR came to light after an article was published in the WSJ, April 16, 2012, and a WSJ study on LIBOR using credit default insurance to track LIBOR rates, on May 29, 2012....

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The cost of fixing the nation's financial system could be around $2.5 trillion with an additional $350 of the second TARP funding and the rest of the money coming from the Federal Reserve through the Fed's ability to print money and from private investors. About $1 trillion of this is to compensate for the lack of issuance of securities backed by consumer loans of $1.2 trillion between 2006 and 2008, so that credit markets can function again like they used to. Another component of the plan is to give banks more government money which they will now be expected to lend to consumers and businesses. But a key feature of the plan much awaited by markets was the bad bank or aggregator bank solution which would enable banks to transfer bad assets to this bank. And on this one Geithner said very little so it was adisappointment for financial markets. Also the plan lacked details and was more broad brush and small on specifics. Another area on which Geithner said little is how the government will tackle rising forecolosures and keep people in their homes, which in turn would help stabilize housing prices. But by building up expectations and offering little of specifics on the bad bank solution Geithner earned withering criticism from Senators Kerry, Shelby, Frank, and others. A former managing director at Morgan Stanley Frank Pallotta, now aconsultant to buyers and sellers of distressed mortgages, says the fundamental problem still is the pricing and the gap between what abank like Chase thinks its mortgage is worth of 75 cents to the dollar and aprospective buyer who thinks its worth 45 cents or 25 cents. This is a huge gap and would be expensive to fill in. A bad bank one analyst says could be very expensive and this is why Geithner acknowledges the goal of setting up a fund of some $1 trillion. ...

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Krugman puts it best when he says in the NYT that he's got a sick feeling in the pit of his stomach. Its just that the Republican challenge of not a single vote in the House for the $789 billion Stimulus bill just makes it harder to go back for more money which most definitely will be needed. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that over the next 3 years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and will actually produce. $789 billion won't be enough, and more so because the weightage shifted in the direction of tax cuts from the original version. And considering the accelerating nature of the crisis on the housing front and in layoffs and consumption, the absence of a clear action plan with specifics to deal with the bad debt in the banking system, is what gives this sick feeling in the stomach. Because as is stated on these same pages by experts from Japan on February 12, NYT, see the link, Japan went through this same soul searching, public anger, controversy, and political leaders were afraid to take strong action for years from the mid 1990's till 2003 after Koizumi's election. Each action or set of actions each year during that period before 2003 was behind the curve, and did not match what was needed. For the USA this has happened already for 2007, 2008 and is heading in that direction for 2009, with a lack of consensus for the strong action needed. Would 4 million new jobs be generated by the current stimulus if that is a measure of success, as Obama indicated at his first press conference? With less going into spending for education, infrastructure, energy and other green projects, in favor of tax cuts and the AMT, and the feeling that going to Congress for more money will be harder and a partisan affair, will this become difficult to achieve? ...

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The situation today of the London and the Thames Valey region's economy and the economy of the areas surrounding it in the south. Its history,downturns in periods after the dotcom crash in 2000-2005 and the current expected downturn after the US subprime crisis, and the expected deterioration in the housing market here. As well as problems for the financial institutions in a tightening credit market with London's position as a key centre of international finance impacting the economy the most. Regional diffeernces in the current upturn London's output per person grew to 136 vs decline in output per person in Scotland Wales and the North, a 36% improvement in London vs deterioration elsehwere in the north and in Wales. With Newcastle in the north hit by the Northern Rock mortgage lender's collapse adding to the difficulties from a general decline in manufacturing. A general decline in industry in the north and the rest of the country outside the Thames valley region shows up in the numbers. From 2000 to 2004 according to official estimates, manufacturing declined from 17.9% to 14.1% and financial services around London expanded from 5.5% to 8.3%, and by 2006 to 9.4%. With a contribution of one tenth of the economy financial services account for 30% of overall GDP growth in the last 3 years and 30% of all corporation tax revenues which helped the Labor government finance its public sector improvements and infrastructure improvements. The current downturn will also lead to a sharp drop in immigration to Britain. Growth is expected to slow to 1.4% in London and in the rest of the country in 2008 which is lower than the 2% growth in London region in the period 2000-2005 when the last downturn in London occurred. The financial services industry spills out benefits to other regions and the rest of the country which is how the British economy has done well even with the lack of strong manufacturing, weak exports and strong currency. ...