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The trade deficit with China has led to loss of 3.8 million jobs, 75% of them or 2.9 million in manufacturing. Go back to 1990 and Beijing was a city of bicycles not cars. If Beijing shifted to a open economy and simply imported products from the US and Europe as it had done since 1700 it would have remained a backward agricultural economy. It took 20 years of focused effort after 2000 for China with US technological assistance to excel in manufacturing, as the US had done after 1920. Can or cannot the US excel in Manufacturing with its own focused effort and restore jobs and decent wages to the American people, that is the question. That a $1 trillion deficit that has already destroyed the US manufacturing and its capacity to defend itself by rapidly building up the US Navy, is that not an emergency, then what is, is also the question, and the role, the duty, of the president of the US in such a situation. The federal appeals court has allowed the DJT Tariffs to remain in place till it goes to the US Supreme Court. Today May 30 the WSJ in a front page article shown here says the one California shipyard could assemble a supply ship in 5 days in 1942. China's independence in the fight against Imperial Japan and the Kwantung Army's adventures, and the independence of Europe in the 1940's depended on this vital US capacity. Is this forgotten? FDR acted step by step by 1938 to restore the US lost capacity at that time, what is the role of the president today? ...

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UBS presents the losses at the London trading desk as a result of a rogue trading scandal. Stewart points to the culture a the UBS's investment banking operation that is partly responsible. Investment bankers he has talked to at UBS say there is a culture at UBS that encourages individuals to work separately in isolation from others, to make their own deals for advancement, a sort of every person for himself. There is no emphasis on team effort and thinking of the bank first.

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With Obama's popularity rating in 2016 similar to Reagan's in his last year in office at 51%, he announced his endorsement of Hillary Clinton for president. Obama is likely to campaign in 2016 for Hillary to reunite the Democratic Party, bring Bernie Sanders and Sander's supporters behind the Democratic nominee, including younger women.

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Peggy Noonan reflects on the deep changes taking place in America. Behind the changes is a strong feeling in the middle and working class that it has been ignored by the establishment in both parties. She points to Citizens United and says it is bad for the Republican Party, encouraging large donors and hedge fund billionaires, making the party less accountable to ordinary people. The Clinton's fundraising also raises similar questions. Trade policies depressing wages have worked against the working class, yet espoused by politicians of both parties. The young supporting Sanders, she says have seen little to show capitalism is working for them. Institutions such as Congress, the presidency, the political class, the Supreme Court, the media, are all in an uncertain position, as voters lose faith in the ability of these institutions to work for them. Yet she points out that it is important that the U.S. voters choose wisely- keeping in mind the importance of electing someone who can demonstrate goodness and a sound mind- not obscuring the questions about Trump. Uncouth language, uncouth behaviours reflect sense and sensibilities, it matters a lot, Peggy Noonan tells the Republican Party and America....

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Risks to China's banking system from the bond market in China. China's bond market has grown rapidly to 25.5 trillion yuan or $4.1 trillion yuan, especialy in the period following the stimulus. But it is not similiar to bond markets in developed countries, the U.S., Japan and France. It has a patchwork of regulators, is closed to foreign investors, and does not offer protections to investors. It also lacks an effective ratings system. Most bonds are held and traded by the banks, which concentrates the risks in the banking system. In developed countries the risks are spread out among investors. Bond markets offer the advantage of reducing dependence on banks for lending but with banks holding most of the bonds in China, including that of local governments, the risks if bond issuers default are concentrated in the banking system.

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India's prime minister Narendra Modi addresses a joint session of the U.S. Congress on June 8, 2016. The close ties between India and the U.S. were enhanced by the good personal relationship between U.S. president Obama and Modi. With a change in administration in 2017 both sides are eager to secure the foundations of the relationship, with India's agreement to the Climate Change Agreement, and other steps.

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87% of the American people support sending back to their countries illegal entry migrants who have committed crimes or offenses in the US in a Pew Research poll and similar in a NYTimes poll. How many of these countries in Latin America allow illegal entry without visas? None. WSJ reports Colombia turns back 2 C-17 military flights Mexico 1 in midair on Jan 27, 2025. This led to a diplomatic standoff with DJT imposing 25% tariffs on increasing in a week to 50% on imports from Colombia entering the US. Colombia agreed to take back the immigrants after the US tariffs.  In 2024 Colombia accepted 124 deportation flights into the country from the US. Yet president Petro objected to these flights on military aircraft and responded on X. DJT responded on Truth Social: "I was just informed that two repatriation flights from the United States, with a large number of Illegal Criminals, were not allowed to land in Colombia. This order was given by Colombia's Socialist President Gustavo Petro, who is already very unpopular amongst his people." DJT then instructed for 25% tariff on Colombian imports into the US which would be raised to 50% if Colombia did not accept the flights in 1 week. DJT said this is just the beginning and also imposed a travel ban to the US. DJT stated this was a threat to the national security of the US. Colombia then accepted the military flights.  Trade two way is $54 billion and Colombia exports coffee, sugar and oil. Colombia imports about $25 billion and exports about $29 billion to the US. Oil exports from Colombia to US are $6 billion, flowers $1.2 billion and coffee $1.6 billion.  ...

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UBS interim CEO Ermotti's career in investment banking and efforts to move UBS away from investment banking.

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The U.S. Labor Department report shows 156,000 jobs added in September 2016. The unemployment rate increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%, because of the increase in the total pool of workers, The labor force increased by 3 million workers over the first 9 months of 2016. The labor force participation rate was up by half a percentage point to 62.9% for the year 2016, as it drew more workers who were earlier discouraged to look for work. Wages grew by 2.6% over the year.

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Over 50% of respondents in the 2012 Gallup poll view Japan as the U.S.'s most important partner in Asia, compared to 39% for China. The shift in how Americans view China is pronounced in the last 3 years. In 2010 the two countries were tied 44%-44%. In 2011 China was 39% to Japan's 31%. In 2011 India, S. Korea and Australia were added to the poll as partners. Among "opinion leaders" such as business executives, government officials, academics and journalists, China gets 54% to Japan's 40%. The poll is conducted by Gallup for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan since the 1960's. The analysis shows that respondents picked China for economic reasons not for political reasons. A survey of the general population shows 84% view Japan as a dependable ally, up 2% froom 2011, with similiar trend for opinion leaders.

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The U.S. Senate voted 79-19 to go forward with a bill on sanctions against China for undervaluation of the yuan. The IMF says China's currency is "substantially undervalued."

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This New York Times editorial after the Senate passed a bill in October 2011 calling for action on the misaligned Chinese currency, points to ways a misaligned currrency is damaging for China. It cites the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimate that this is costing China $240 billion a year. This is a result of accumulating huge dollar reserves that have a declining value against the renminbi. Higher import prices lead to higher inflation. And low interest rates on savings, to the point that they are lower than the inflation rate, hurt the vast majority of Chinese and reduce domestic consumption. And perversely this leads to money pouring into speculative uses such as real estate, creating unsustainable bubbles in housing. The Times editorial says China is not generating jobs from this strategy, as the export strategy is relying on use of advanced technology in manufacturing and not creating many jobs. It cites a statistic showing employment has increased by only 1 percent a year from 2004 even with GDP growth above 10%. China is beginning to realize the cost of this strategy, and is planning a shift in its five year economic plan. But this rebalancing has many obstacles. The current system dominated by state run companies, banks, local and federal government, is biassed in favor of the old export led strategy, and experts are pessimistic about the possibilities for change. The Times suggests China may be falling back on the export led strategy as the global economy is slowing. The whole system would have to change after three decades of this kind of development, and would require new leadership and major changes....

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See how dysfunctional today's politics have become in the way the Speaker in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. president expressed utter disdain for each other and their opposite political parties at the State of the Union gathering in the U.S. Congress. Trump focussed on the economic gains for the U.S. in trade and the economy, and sees impeachment efforts as unfair as not rising to the level of high crimes and demeanors defined for that in the U.S. Constitution. Pelosi and Democrats see Trump's style and manner as violating norms for politics followed earlier.  Harry Truman, a president in the fifties never got much respect from Republicans who saw his style and manner as too rustic and Missouri farmlike. Andrew Johnson a Republican during the early post Civil War period after Lincoln, without the education of the upper class was treated with disdain by Democrats. Interestingly both were chosen by icons Roosevelt and Lincoln. This time the focus of attention is a president who comes from outside, motivated to run in politics as he said in his speech in Congress by the wrongs the U.S. suffered from other nations in business and trade. Truman got attention from Roosevelt through the hard work to cut the extensive cost overruns and mismanagement in production for the war effort. Johnson for his loyalty to the Union from a Southern state, Tennessee. All seemed to shrug off the disdain without much discomfort and Truman was known to say- "The Buck Stops Here." ...

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China had a trade deficit of $7.3 billion in February 2011. Experts say February is not a typical month because of the Chinese New Year.

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The $2 billion losses at Chase highlights the need for completing the Volcker Rule with language that prevents banks engaging in risky trading activities. Former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair says precise language is needed to clarify the defiinition of hedging after the losses by a single trader's complex hedging bet in London. Individual traders have too much authority in existing trading arrangements to make complicated bets in finanial markets. Large losses were incurred by Swiss bank UBS when an individual trader in London made risky bets in 2011, raising all sorts of questions about the bank's risk management systems.