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Huge investments to make Saudi Arabia one of the three largest chemical producers in the world. See the groups and links to questions about this investment binge- will it generate enough jobs considering the size of the investments? Is this the most productive use of the money, what are the alternatives and so on. From the standpoint of oil prices the Saudis wouldn't be too receptive to oil price decreases and reluctant to increase oil production if they need the money to finance the investments described here, huge petrochemical complexes and whole new cities.

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A $150 immediate stimulus plan for the US economy by putting $100 billion into consumers pockets and $50 billion in tax breaks for business.

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Krauthammer says it has become a cliche for people to say "politics is broken" in the U.S. John Beers, head of the Standard & Poors sovereign ratings committtee, also cited a broken political system in his rationale for the U.S. credit downgrade to AA+. This happened even as S&P repeatedly emphasized the triple A rating for France during this weeks (early August 2011) tumult in the markets over French credit risks. But in reality when you look closely and have a sense about the serious changes being discussed, says Krauthammer, something exceptional has happened, and the system is working. For the U.S. Congress and the government to come to grips with an ever expanding debt -with 39 cents of every dollar spent being borrowed as Alan Simpson of the Simpson-Bowles Commission never tires of pointing out- when both branches of government have ignored or shunted off the question with a "deficits are ok" attitude for decades- is a significant achievement. When one looks closely contrary to what S&P's and other opinion says there is actually a political process that is working in the U.S. compared to the process in Europe. In difficult situations when strong opinions are bare knuckling it with each other this process can be boisterous, but it only suggests an effort to wrap ones hands around the problems in a serious way. This is actually one of the strengths of the U.S. system with its checks and balances and its spirited dialogue. In business management Intel's Andy Grove called it "constructive confrontation," and he described this as positive and essential for business institutions to survive and grow....

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Sabotage of two tankers in the Persian Gulf and reports of activity of Iranian proxy forces in Iraq and Syria have led to an American response with the dispatch of a aircraft carrier and other forces to the region.  This report in the NYT says Defense Secretary Shanahan has prepared plans for deployment of American forces in the region with one plan calling for 120,000 troops to be dispatched to the region. As president Trump is against American involvement in land wars in distant places, the force is designed as a precaution in case of an Iranian attack through proxy forces in Syria or Iraq and not for a land operation. National Security Adviser Bolton has taken a strong position on Iran since the days of the Bush administration. The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the sanctions on Iranian oil, are part of a new policy of the Trump administration. The European Union countries have followed a policy of preserving the nuclear deal of 2015, even though the U.S. is pressuring EU countries. The oil sanction have led to a sharp drop in oil exports and is hurting the Iranian economy. President Rouhani of Iran says Iran may withdraw from parts of the Iran nuclear deal and the Iranian response is leading to heightened tensions in the region.  It was only recently that the Democratic party Obama administration pursued the Iranian nuclear deal with opposition from Republicans in Congress and skepticism of Israel. The election of president Trump who says the deal was a bad one has reversed U.S. policy leading to a complete change in policy and a possible confrontation with Iran. U.S. policy can veer back and forth depending on the party or president in power who completely different perceptions of the region. Obama had sharp difference with Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a different perception of Iran. Trump and Bolton see Iran as a threat to the U.S. After Iran shipped most of its nuclear fuel out of the country in 2016 in exchange for lifting of economic sanctions under president Obama's nuclear deal it would take over a year for new uranium enrichment facilities to produce the materials for a nuclear bomb, according to this report in the NYT. When the Obama administration negotiated with Iran the window had shrunk to a few months.   ...

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Efforts to boost the share of national income that goes to rural households and workers in China. The share of income taken by state owned enteprises and taxes paid by the enterprises would have to change for reducing the gap in incomes and reducing inequality in China.

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The near collapse of Iran's state owned gas company following stricter Western sanctions and withdrawal of Total and other oil companies. Iran sits on top of the second largest gas reserves in the world but is able to export gas only to Turkey and Azerbaijan. Qatar which borders one of Iran's large gas fields is developing its side of the field with technology and investment from Shell and other foreign oil companies. The CEO of the company, Hamid Reza Araghi, told the Mehr News Agency that the company had declared bankruptcy, with debt of about $4 billion. Gas revenues have dropped to about $10 million a day and the company suffers from mismanagement.

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As factories fail and owners flee China, leaving behind unpaid suppliers, the suppliers are ripping up all the equipment to pay what they are owed. The lack of good bankruptcy laws makes the situation ugly, see pictures.

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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The situation today of the London and the Thames Valey region's economy and the economy of the areas surrounding it in the south. Its history,downturns in periods after the dotcom crash in 2000-2005 and the current expected downturn after the US subprime crisis, and the expected deterioration in the housing market here. As well as problems for the financial institutions in a tightening credit market with London's position as a key centre of international finance impacting the economy the most. Regional diffeernces in the current upturn London's output per person grew to 136 vs decline in output per person in Scotland Wales and the North, a 36% improvement in London vs deterioration elsehwere in the north and in Wales. With Newcastle in the north hit by the Northern Rock mortgage lender's collapse adding to the difficulties from a general decline in manufacturing. A general decline in industry in the north and the rest of the country outside the Thames valley region shows up in the numbers. From 2000 to 2004 according to official estimates, manufacturing declined from 17.9% to 14.1% and financial services around London expanded from 5.5% to 8.3%, and by 2006 to 9.4%. With a contribution of one tenth of the economy financial services account for 30% of overall GDP growth in the last 3 years and 30% of all corporation tax revenues which helped the Labor government finance its public sector improvements and infrastructure improvements. The current downturn will also lead to a sharp drop in immigration to Britain. Growth is expected to slow to 1.4% in London and in the rest of the country in 2008 which is lower than the 2% growth in London region in the period 2000-2005 when the last downturn in London occurred. The financial services industry spills out benefits to other regions and the rest of the country which is how the British economy has done well even with the lack of strong manufacturing, weak exports and strong currency. ...

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Moody's Investor's Service downgrades China's credit rating to A1 from Aa3. Moody's predicts a slowdown in growth for China. GDP growth for 1st quarter 2017 was 6.9%. Total debt has grown from 149% of gross domestic product in 2008, to 213% in 2013, and is now 253%, according to JP Morgan. The problem is that ever higher levels of credit have supported growth and more of this is coming from the shadow banking sector. Higher levels of debt in future years from the already high levels will weigh heavily on growth, leading to an eventual slowdown in the economy's growth rate.

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Strikers at a Honda transmission factory in Hoshan, 100 miles northwest of Hong Kong are asking for raises of $117 or 800 renminbi in cash above the $132 a month or 900 renminbi that they are now paid. About 950 of 1900 workers at the plant are trainees, young people from vocational schools or high schools earn $132 a month. Older employees earn upto 1500 renminbi or $220 a month. The significance of this strike is that the Chinese government is tacitly encouraging the strike as it begins making moves to increase domestic consumption and make the economy less dependent on exports. This requires consumer's having larger purchasing power and higher wages. It also means that China will not remain the low cost manufacturer for manufacture goods makers around the world for very long. Consider the size of the increase and the policy change of the government and this implies a significant shift by China.

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China is closing energy inefficient aging factories. The Chinese government plans to close 76 factories in cement, 279 in paper, 175 in steel, and 84 in leather as part of this effort. This still leaves China with a lot of work to do to acheve the 20% reduction per unit of economic output in 2010 compared to 2005, that its current five year plan calls for. Efficiency went up by 14.4% in the first four years of the current plan, but went down by 3.6% in the first quarter causing serious concern.

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A big hurdle for local brands in China is the Chinese consumer's interest and respect for foreign brands. Asked about local brands buyers say they can't think of any, or say Chinese brands are shoddy in quality and value. Brands such as Haier in consumer appliances and Lenovo in tech are an exception. During the big surge in consumer sales in the last two decades Chinese companies producing local brands thought it adequate to simply imitate foreign brand names rather than take the difficult route of establishing the credibility of their own brand- an effort which might take years. Often the foreign name was changed slightly to keep the resemblance but mean something positive to Chinese consumers in the local language. Common are names such as Adidos, Hike, Cnoverse and Fuma for sneakers. Clio Coste keeps the connection to Lacoste with its crocodile logo. Coca Cola in Chinese is Kekoulele, translated to mean Tasty Fun. Only now are local companies giving serious attention to creating long term brand entity and image. The serious attention to brand names and branding comes at a time when China increasingly depends on consumer sales to power the economy with the decline in real estate and slower manufacturing. For the 11 months of 2014 retail sales were up 12 percent over the prior year period to $3.8 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. ...

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The thinking is that a slight drop in the year to year increase in GDP from 11.4% to 10%, according to both IMF and Goldman Sachs group forecasts, isn't going to do much in reducing China's demand growth for oil. For one thing China's industry is very energy intensive and consumes a lot of energy to produce a give amount of output. Its estimated that it takes about 1% of increase in energy demand to produce 1% rise in GDP. It ranks as the largest consumer of coal and the second largest user of oil. It takes in about 8 million barrels a day of the 84 million barrels a day, that is 9.52%. Even as China's export sector slows down because of lower demand from the industrialized countries, the Chinese government can use its large cash reserves to build roads and bridges and ports and upgrade infrastructure to maintain employment levels. Major refiners margins have swung wildly from $30 in May 2007 from $10 in the last few years. Before the recent boom in refinery margins the margins average $5, and it looks like the boom in refinery building in Saudi Arabia, India and China and the US that resulted from shortage of refinery capacity, will bring margins back to their longterm average. A surge in oil prices that has outpaced the rise in prices of gasoline and refined products is shrinking margins and lowering profits and stock price of refiners like Tesoro and Valero. and upgrade its infrastructure ...