LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Library of Congress's exhibition, "The Books That Shaped America," in Washington D.C. from June 25 to September 29, 2012. The books include the McGuffey Readers, schoolbooksthat educated people like Henry Ford at the turn of the century, to Walt Whitman, Thoreau, Edgar Rice Burroughs, Ray Bradbury and Dr. Seuss. Even Dale Carnegie. It includes social issue books by Upton Sinclair, Ida Tarbell, W.E.B. Du Bois, Cesar Chavez. Literary works include Emily Dickinson, Thornton Wilder and Tennessee WIlliams. Carl Sagan's book on astronomy doesn't appear on this list. It is a pretty impressive list and a valiant effort to cover the American experience through books that most Americans are familiar with from school or other reading, and books that have conveyed a sense of America in all its struggles and humanity to people in other countries and especially the English speaking world.

LyrArc Article Gist
Solyndra Inc. and what went wrong. Solyndra filed for bankruptcy in Sept. 2011, after investments of private and government capital of over a billion dollars. Of this $535 million was a loan backed by the U.S. Department of Energy, leaving taxpayers with large losses. When emails were being exchanged between Vice President Biden's advisor and OMB staffers on August 31, 2009, according to the Washington Post, Solyndra was already in trouble. OMB pleaded for more time to do due diligence and analysis of the company. A $535 million loan was approved just when the economics behind Solyndra's cylinder coated solar materials were being made obsolete by the existing technology of polysilicon cells laid out on a flat panel. At Solyndra's inception in 2005 the cylinder based technology held promise, as the polysilicon cells technology relied on polysilicon material which was costly to make. In 2009 China was investing heavily in the polysilicon technology and bringing prices down to where the material cost was coming down quickly-down as much as 80%. By the end of 2009, it cost $4.00 per watt to produce Solyndra's product, while the competing Chinese polysilicon product cost $1.00 per watt- today this is down to 75 cents for the polysilicon product. The Solyndra product was harder to manufacture and had more defective material that had to be discarded. It is in the midst of these sea changes in technology, costs, and the economics of the project, that the government pushed for and OMB approved the Solyndra loan of $535 million to build a new factory that could produce 500 megawatts. In 2010 the economics worked as it would be expected, leading to Solyndra sales of 65 megawatts. The original factory had a capacity with improvements of 100 megawatts. Solyndra lost $172 million in 2009 on revenue of $100 million. Private investors attitude to their investment changed in 2009. The Wall Street Journal quotes one investor who saw the government loan followed by an IPO as a way to exit and cash out. A press release by Solyndra in July 2009, stated the company had a contractual backlog of $2 billion, even as the economics of the Solyndra product were collapsing. Yet these orders were not firm orders but framework agreements. In Dec. 2009 the lead underwriters, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, made an initial filing for an IPO, which was cancelled by the board 6 months later when the new factory had to be closed. The private investors interests and the governments interests had already diverged by the time of the email pushing for the $535 U.S. government loan from McSweeney, Biden's domestic policy advisor, to the senior OMB staffer, cited in the Washington Post, Stephens and Leonnig, 9/14/2011. OMB and the White House staffers failed to see this and the bankruptcy outcome that seemed highly probable in August 2009, based on the economics and competitive technology and pricing. This does prove the often cited comment that the government is not good at choosing winners and losers when handing out money. It goes beond this to show the whole process of due diligence failing at agencies such as the Energy Department and the Office of Management and the Budget, where one would think technically qualified staffers could catch the problems and risks of a project that were so apparent. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Capital Economics, a consultancy, estimates that housing prices will fall by 15% in 2008 in Britain and by 12% in 2009. The mortgage market figures according to the Nationwide Building Society show that only 42,000 loans had been approved to buy homes in May under half th number from 2007 May and below even the trough reached in the early 1990's. An economist at Morgan Stanley estimates that with 15% fall in prices 1.2 million households will be under water or have negative equity in their homes, and with a 20% decline in housing prices this number could reach 2 million , as bad as it was in the worst days of early 1990's. A member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee thinks the decline in housing starts would be on a much bigger scale than in the early 1990's. The loss of housing investment will lead to a loss of about one percentage point in GDP economic growth in 2008 and in 2009 according to Goldman Sachs. Thre would be a loss of 30-40% of the demand for equipment to setup new homes leading to a loss of 0.2-0.3% of GDP growth. Economic growth will be affected as declining consumer wealth leads to lower consumer spending. A one percetage point loss in consumer spending is expected and this will lower economic growth by half a percentage point of GDP over the next year according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. All this comes on top of inflation, rising prices of food and energy, loss of purchasing power. And the central bank cannot lower interest rates if it keeps its eye on inflation as the ECB has done....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Obama first family and its many mulicultural faces from Kenyan, Indonesian, Chinese to African American and White abolitionists from Missouri. Truly a new face of the American continent. About 25% of white Americans have interracial marraiges and nearly half of all black Americans belong to a multiracial family, according to estimates made by Joshua Goldstein of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. What it does is wake one up to the reality, the changes that have already ocurred in the country which most people had not realized. With Blacks, Hispanics, Jewish people, Asian Americans, the 25% of whites in interracial marraiges, recent immigrants, white women, and white males making up this mosaic of cultures and communities that makeup America. And the geographical mix is also just as varied, with the west and the northwest and the midwest and east having a bigger share of this mosaic than the south and the mountain states. Whites in interracial marraiges tends to breakup the traditional white protestant insular demographic. On the religious side there is a breakup of the traditional white demographic with Irish Americans especially those in the east tending to move away from the traditional white protestant insular demographic because of their own particular historical and cultural narrative. The Obama story is one of tapping into these different demographics and changing faces of America at the right time, when the conservative southern demographic, represented by the Bush family, combined with related demographic groups in counties and neighborhoods around the country had lost popular support from two wars and a failing economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
Most Congressmen are skeptical of Obama's plan to give the Fed new powers to meet the kind of emergency created by the glovabal economic crisis. Their concern is that the Fed may let the property bubble develop wihtout taking any action, and that the Fed failed as abank regulator. Congressman Ron Paul is co-sponsoring abill that would require Congressional audits of the Fed, which has the support of two thirds of the House.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ looks at the 75 years of the US Saudi Arabia relationship that started when US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt met Saudi king Ibn Saud at Bitter Creek, Egypt, on a US Navy destroyer ship in 1945. It has gone through many phases over this period and mainly involved the Saudi kingdom maintaining its supply of oil to the US and Western Europe. This relationship went through an oil embargo during tense periods of Israeli Palestine conflict as in 1983 with an oil embargo that pushed up oil prices. What is different this time is the situation in Yemen where Iranian supported Houthi rebels near the border with Saudi Arabia are engaged in a conflict with the Saudis. Democratic administrations under first Obama and Biden today support reaching a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons development and limit US military support for the war in Yemen. The Saudis for their part are not keen on a regional war and turned down efforts by president Trump to respond to attacks from Yemen. Mr. Biden's envoy has arranged for a deal to reduce tensions between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudis. The diplomatic impasse in relations stems from the Kashoggi incident and president Biden's concern for the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. Other factors making relations difficult are the economic interests of the two countries diverging. The relationship Roosevelt started in 1945 has changed in its fundamental character. Oil supplies for imports into the US is no longer a factor for the US which was the original interest of president Roosevelt in Saudi Arabia. This changed by 2015 as the US fracking industry enabled US to become self sufficient in oil and able to supply LNG to western Europe. Instead of the US Saudi oil now goes to China. Russian oil also goes to China as its industry expanded with American investment. This has led to a new Saudi relationship with China which has changed the dynamic of the American Saudi relationship. Some of the new aspects of this can also be seen in Saudi relationship with South Asia. Saudi ties have increased with India and India in 2021 was the first country to provide vaccine supplies to Saudi Arabia. Saudis, Qatar, United Arab Emirates are building relationships with India as a close neighbor in the region. Relationships are in some ways improving in the Asian region compared to the period when oil was simply exchanged as a commodity for defense supplies from the US without regard to cultural, educational and other changes in Saudi society. In a sense US and Western Europe paid little attention to the huge democracy of over 1 billion people right in the middle of Asia and followed policies that led to major investments in China and little or no investment in India, and without realizing it followed a policy that the British had pursued in the British Empire of treating different communities and religions as separate as opposed to one community of people in South Asia that were engaged in modernizing, building infrastructure and changing centuries old ways of living. The British Empire was sustained by this kind of thinking, and as long as Indians were complacent and lacked the will to make their aspirations for a better life and infrastructure for modernization this kind of thinking prevailed. The economic crises in Asia have reinforced the idea that there is one community entirely focused on development and modernization in South Asia. The people in South Asia care most about the cost of living and the infrastructure and services for the quality of life they live and their children can aspire for- same in European Union that chose the Greens and chancellor Scholz, and same in the US that chose president Biden to invest infrastructure and people, the same in China and the same in India and the rest of Asia. This is the situation that the US and Britain, and the European Union are now beginning to learn and adapt to that is a constructive aspect of these changes to rebuild the connections and supply chains that were sorely neglected before now. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ looks at Elizabeth Warren's Medicare for All plan that marks a major shift for the U.S. economy.  Households would see their costs go down by $11 trillion, boosting their ability to spend on other goods and services. Because income and wealth was highly skewed in the past three decades in one direction, the spending capacity of lower and middle income households was pushed down. This and other similar plans would help restore a higher level of spending and with it an essential element of inflation of 2-3% to the U.S. economy which was missing in the last decade. This sets the tone for the kind of broad based recovery that happened after 1950 that strengthened America's middle class and made it the core of the economy, the core of the post World War II recovery in America and Europe. The plan would be paid for by higher taxes on corporations, tax rate of 21% for corporations going back up to 35%, and reverse depreciation schedules in the 2017 Republican tax law. The argument that this would reduce business investment does not hold that much says the WSJ because amid new trade tensions business investment has declined over the last 2 quarters, and has been sluggish overall. The other source for the estimated $13 to $20 trillion cost of Medicare for All plan of Elizabeth Warren is a 6% annual wealth tax on billionaires, in an attempt to have all pay their fair share and reduce wide disparities in wealth. Mark Zandl, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, says his sense is at the end of the day from a macroeconomic view- because $11 trillion in the hands of 80% of households who could boost spending after lagging behind in the last decade- the negative effect on business investment will be cancelled out by the higher consumer spending. The overall effect and today's context is infused in this analysis. Private insurance, premiums for insurance, and out of pocket cost that the public pays would disappear in this new system where all health payments pass through the government. Health insurance premiums paid by employers would convert into a new employer Medicare contribution to the government starting at an amount employers pay now and adjusting gradually toward national averages over time. Smallest businesses are exempted. Mr. Zandl says the most important aspect of this now is that Mrs Warren has shown that her plan's revenue sources match the cost so that the plan would not lead to deficits increasing and pushing interest rates higher, leading to negative effects on the economy. Republicans under Mr. Trump have paid little attention to expanded deficits caused by their tax law, and economists across the landscape have also shown less concern. Still attacks are made if the plans don't add up. For this reason a sound assessment in today's context of depressed consumers and an overall impact becomes essential. The WSJ quotes from a pre- assessment of Warren's plan by Simon Johnson, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who co-wrote it with Mr. Zandl and Betsey Stevenson of the University of Michigan. What they point out is that putting cash in the pockets of the lower and middle class for spending makes a lot of sense today, and taking money out of the pockets at the way upper wealthy end,  does not contract the economy at all. Other effects they say are constructive by letting all workers get health coverage from the government instead of employers, this makes it easier to change jobs increasing labor mobility and productivity. A worker getting a better job and better utilization of skills could then shift without looking at the employer health care plan. Warren says there would be a five year transition so that workers in health care insurance industry can work in other insurance fields and in Medicare, no one would be left behind. The important thing being to build America's middle class again. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The House bill on health care cleared the House Committee on Energy and Commerce with a vote of 31 to 28. Five Democrats joined all 23 Republicans. Compromises were reached with Blue Dog Democrats, centrist Democrats who had concerns about the cost of the health care overhaul. The bill will be taken up again in September after the August recess, when Congress will be faced with the task of recociling the House and Senate versions and reaching common ground on a number of proposals. Some common ground has already been achieved between centris and Blue Dog Democrats and Democratic members who support Obama's proposals. Among the changes on which consensus was reached in the House version: 1. Access Insurers will have to accept all applicants and will not be able to charge higher premiums because of medical history or current illness. All insurers will have to offer a minimum package of benefits, to be defined by the federal government, and nearly all Americans will be required to have insurance. Insurers will have to get prior approval from the government before increasing premiums over a certain amount. About 95% of Americans will be covered this time. The cost will still be approaching $ 1trillion over 10 years. Federal subsidies will be given to those who cannot afford health insurance and Medicaid coverage will be expanded. And the insurance will be made more affordable for the uninsured. Democrats also reached a consensus on creating some sort of government insurance plan or nonprofit cooperative to compete with private insurers. 2. Mobility And under this new plan it will be easier to change jobs as one would retains one's health insurance. This should actually help the job market, and help promote the mobility that is needed, now that jobs are shifting out of sectors like autos to sectors like energy. 3. Cost The Energy and Commerce Committee voted 47 to 11 to set aprocedure for the government to give federal approval of generic versions of expensive biotechnology drugs. By one estimate this saves $9 billion over 10 years. The Democratic proposals from the Energy and Commerce Committee would authorize the Health and Human Services Secretary to negotiate prescription drug prices for Medicare benificiaries. The agreement and consensus among the conservative, liberal and centrist Democrats, and Democrats with ties and connections to the health care industry was reached after intensive negotiations, and adoption of a package of amendments that helped bridge the differences they had. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The shift from non-conventional polluting single cylinder engine contraptions used by poorer Chinese called "Inkfish" to conventional fuel efficient engines will reduce oil consumption in China even as more cars are on the road. This explains the paradox of Chinese vehicle sales being up by 77% year over year in the first quarter of 2010, and still gasoline demand went up by only 3%. Kack Perkowski, founder of Chinese auto-parts manufacturer Asimco Technologies, says the shift from the low tech "inkfish" type vehicles to fuel efficient small cars popular with the Chinese and encouraged by government policies to reduce oil consumption is a big factor in this development. Perkowski says 50 million engines are manufactured in China each year and if you subtract the 13.6 million cars, trucks and buses sold in China last year, another 36 million low tech highly fuel inefficient engines including "inkfish" engines were sold. China's car buyers are very price conscious and prefer smaller cars. Smaller cars are also well suited to the crowded roads in the coastal cities. And the Chinese government wants to keep oil consumption down so it is pushing buyers in the direction of smaller engines with tax breaks. The Chinese governmet is expected to announce subsidies for plug-in hybrids worth about one third of the sticker price. The motives are environmental and energy security related, but also have the intent of enabling China's car manufacturers to gain experience and leadership in newer electric car technologies. Bottom line: some experts including Deutsche Bank's Sankey view China's oil demand growing much slower, at about 2.6% a year over the next 15 years. This would mean oil demand tapering off at 13-14 million barrels of oil per day by 2025, much higher than the 9.1 million bpd in 2010, but growth curbed by fuel efficient engines and increasing fuel efficency of the Chinese vehicle population....

LyrArc Article Gist
A vivid and amazing account of the the earthquake and tsunami that hit the city of Ishinomaki, Japan, 35 miles up the coast from Sendai. It tells the story of where different people were that day, and the hours of their lives before and after the tsunami. Hiroshi Kaneyama, is the mayor of Ishinomaki, who is in Sendai that day attending a symposium on commercialization of algae. He would drive up to a dark town filled with water, and no electricity, and find his way to a Red Cross hospital command center. Toshikatsu Kumagai, is a 34 year old newspaper reporter, who will find himself driving at 3.30 pm that day on a bridge over the Satagawa river, on the western side of Ishinomaki. He spots the first 19 foot wave and tries to make a run for it, racing towards a fence before he was swept away. He finds himself in a landscape that has become part of the ocean. He jumps on top of a plastic tub and is rescued by helicopter 18 hours later. Most of the students at Okawa Elementary School who lined up outside the school when the tsunami alarms sounded, were swept away. Taylor Anderson, is an American teacher who teaches English to Japanese students at 8 schools in this coastal town. She has been in Japan for over 2 years. At Mangokuura Elementary School, Anderson helps students ont the playground and then jumps on her bike heading down Route 398, Onagawa Highway, which runs along the coast, to her apartment. She will never make it, and her body is found washed ashore days later. In this city alone 2,283 bodies were found, 2,643 people were missing, 23,000 in shelters. The town of Onagawa with 10,000 people, near Ishinomaki, was washed away. And this is only one part of northeastern Japan hit by the earthquake and tsunami....

LyrArc Article Gist
Crude oil or crude world. This book by Peter Maas "Crude World: The Violent Twilight of Oil," shows how places like Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea suffer from the lack of infrastructure and jobs, as the oil industry does not create many jobs and the companies and the ruling classes in these countries are the main beneficiaries. Nigeria's anticorruption official, Nuh Ribadu, is cited in the WSJ, with an estimate of $380 billion of $400 billion in oil revenues in Nigeria over 3 decades being wasted through corruption and misuse of funds, with little money going into infrastructure and jobs. Manufacturing in China, Vietnam, and Malaysia for basic consumer products from textiles to shoes, creates jobs even at low wages, making the people in these countries better off as wages rise. Oil on the other hand creates few jobs and companies do not move upscale manufacturing tech products in the next stage of manufacturing, leaving the people as worse off as before. The margins are thin in manufacturing, whereas much of the oil revenue can be deposited in accounts of influential individuals. Mouwad in the NYT points out 93% of profits go to the government in Nigeria, only 7% to western oil companies. Even in countries which have tried to root out corruption through socialist experiments such as Venezuela and religious parties such as in Iran, the failure to integrate with the globalized economy and extremist policies leads to lack of development and backwardness. This shows that the best way to develop is through emphasis on education, science and technology, building a culture that thrives on modernization and technological advancement over several decades, even if this means starting with basics and continually moving forwards into higher technologies. Japan, South Korea and China moved from shoes and textiles to iPads and smartphones, Japan starting in the 60's, S. Korea in the 80's and China in the 90's. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
All sides had to make concessions to reach a new agreement on a restructuring of Greece's debt, and new terms for loans to Ireland and Portugal. The agreement was reached after negotiations between France, Germany, the ECB, and eurozone countries with a declaration issued on July 21, 2011. The powers and financing of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) were expanded to be the main mechanism for channeling EU funding to reduce the burden of Greece's debt. Germany will provide new funding and be open to additional commitments, something German chancellor Angela Merkel had resisted since the beginning of the crisis in 2010. Earlier funding had come with high interest rates and only when the situation had reached a crisis, with Germany insisting on the punitive rates and conditions as a way to discourage countries from taking advantage of cheap borrowing. In exchange for commitment of German funds Ms Merkel had insisted that banks and private creditors share in the losses. Private bondholders resisted but finally agreed to take a loss of 20% of principal on a small portion of the bonds. Their larger concession was to take lower interest rates and extend the maturities to 15 years and 30 years on new bonds which are guaranteed by the EU. The specific terms of the agreement are as follows: The EFSF and the IMF will lend Greece 109 billion euros over 3 years at 3.5%. Private creditors including German and French banks will "voluntarily" turn in their old bonds for new ones that mature over 15-30 year periods. These new bonds include 15 and 30 year Greek bonds with varying coupons. Some of the bonds would have a 20% discount on principal. EU leaders say the private sector contribution amounts to 37 billion euros through 2014 and 106 billion euros through 2019. Another part of the program is for the EFSF to buy back some of the Greek bonds on the secondary markets, which would mean Greece would now owe a smaller amount to the EFSF on these bonds. The EFSF will now have additional financial support from Germany and other EU countries and be authorized to provide aid to countries before a crisis situation arises. It would also have power to buy Greek bonds at prices on secondary markets to reduce the Greek debt burden. Ireland and Portugal are also assisted in the agreement. The interest rate for EU aid to Ireland and Portugal is taken down to 3.5%. Ireland is paying about 6% on the EU portion of its 67.5 billon euros bailout and efforts to reduce the rate were resisted earlier. The main theme behind these concessions and provisions is to give Greece, (and Ireland and Portugal) a chance to grow. High interest rates came under strong criticism because it only increased the size of the debt burden of these countries with a shrinking economy and high unemployment. The failure to come together behind a broad and sensible agreement with all parties making serious concessions, the EU, the ECB and the political leadership in these countries especially Greece, was undermining confidence in the euro and the eurozone itself. By mid-July Italy and Spain were feeling the effects of contagion in the financial markets, U.S. debt ceiling negotiations were unsettling global financial markets, the pressure was intense to come up with the workable agreement achieved on July 21, 2011. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
AP VoteCast shows over half of Americans and 8 in 10 Trump voters think support for transgender rights in government and society has gone too far. About 90 of Republicans, half of Democrats, and two thirds of Independents think support for transgender rights in government and society have gone too far. The situation about allowing transgender persons in women's locker rooms offends most women. Abortion rights is an issue for two thirds of women but half of the same women think transgender rights having gone too far, they cannot support transgender people in their daughter's locker rooms at school. Cultural issues such as these inflamed the situation with the signs in Madison Square Garden saying "transgender the hell out of locker rooms in our schools." What would FDR and Frances Perkins say about this, their whole lives spent trying to figure out a way for unemployment insurance and stabilizing employment. The net result is that only about 20-25% of women thought abortion was the issue, and 60-70% saw the economy as the main issue. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Micheline Maynard gets diverse views on bankruptcy filing and bailout for General Motors and Ford. Out of hundreds of comments, (looking at the comments based on reader recommends from 70 to 15 readers recommend range), with over 90% of comments favoring no bailout money for automakers without coming to grips with problems and replacing management and the board, it is clear that readers cite in order of importance the following against the automakers. Complicity with Congress and lobbyists in keeping fuel efficiency low. This sent billions of dollars to mideast nations for oil, which in turn bloated liquidity here at home, helping fuel the cheap credit era in the US and building consumer and mortgage debt. This lack of conservation in gasoline use burdened economies around the world with high oil prices, and then hit the car companies in Detroit hard as sales of large vehicles collapsed. Its entirely the Detroit carmakers own shortsightedness they say. Second most mentioned is bad management, and bad decisions and arrogance. Third the unions bloated contracts, and bankruptcy as the only way to get rid of them. Fourth failure to make green cars. Fifth the lack of any idea what $25 or $50 billion given to GM and Chrysler would get the taxpayer, because if the market has collapsed then more money will be needed each year to pay salaries and contiinue operations in 2009, followed by 2010. The market has gone from 16 milllion to a 10 million rate in October 2008, if it drops to 8 million in 2009, it would require the companies to shrink by 50% as a rough guess, and the union contracts just negotiated would be totally inappropriate for the new market and financial conditions. Getting rid of those union contracts could only be done in a bankruptcy filing, as in bankruptcy everything would have to be done from scratch. Whereas in a bailout the unions would simply refuse to cooperate as they have done in the past. This is also what readers are saying when they say let the market economy work. A look at the reader comments on similar articles in the Washington Post and the WSJ also show an overwhelming number of readers not favoring taxpayer money for automakers without serious changes, and bringing a completely new management and board to get things off to a fresh start, with no legacy from the past. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Polls on Deutchland opinion trends show Merkel has gained support with her careful handling of Brexit, and the AfD has lost support. Only a month ago media reports covering the immigration issues had put AfD in the light of gaining using this issue. The infighting in the Conservative Party and the lack of any plans of ministers in the British government favoring Brexit for leaving the EU have Germans questioning this kind of politics compared to Merkel's promise of a "calm and composed manner" in dealing with issues of people's lives and the future of Europe. The extensive coverage in Germany of the vote for Brexit, the EU referendum in Britain, increased awareness in Germany of the benefits of the European Union. Merkel and other leaders offered their assessment of how the European Union has brought peace to Europe and improved the lives of the people during the pre Brexit media coverage. Now Infratest Dimap polls show the popularity of Merkel has increased to 59%. Compared to a June poll before Brexit things look better for Merkel-  the AfD Alternative for Germany has lost 3 percent of support dropping to 12 percent, the Christian Democrat party of Merkel is up by 2 percentage points to 34 percent in popular support, the Social Democrats also increasing support by 1 percent to 22 percent.The vast majority of people said the European Union provides security (74 percent) and prosperity (79 percent). Germans are skeptical about the value of referendums on such major decisions as EU membership because of swings in popular opinion such as that on immigration that swayed British voters- 49 percent saying parliament does better in these situations than a referendum, 42% saying referendums are better. For voters who said Germany was hindered by membership only 11% supported that proposition and 52% said the EU is beneficial for Germany. Over 75% actually favor more cooperation on refugees, data policies and energy, setting the prospect for a stronger European Union. Also proving the importance of responsible politics, and honest, flexible leadership, responding to people's concerns yet not pandering to swings in opinion for temporary advantage. A separate piece in the Guardian by Yonge points out that Cameron actually won only 23 percent of the eligible voters for Conservatives in the 2015 elections in Britain, reflecting a two decade slide. Brexit only made this failure widely visible, and did not escape the attention of the German people.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
British prime minister Sunak calls for general elections on July 4 at a time when the Tories are behind Labour by well over 20 percentage points. After 15 years in power the Conservative party is facing a British public that is deeply dissatisfied with its performance. Labor's Starmer has added to the popularity of Labour and is expected to form the new government.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
Canadian tar sands oil production from Alberta faces increasing competition from production by Bakken oil fields in N. Dakota. The increasing production from Bakken fields in the U.S. and the lack of pipeline space to bring oil from Alberta to the U.S. is putting the more costly projects on hold. The costlier projects have costs of about $100 a barrel with crude prices dropping below $90 in the U.S. Projects using steam to get bitumen to the surface are viable at $50 a barrel, other projects that require mining the bitumen to make synthetic crude have costs upwards of $100 a barrel. Costs are rising quickly with the cost of geoscientists going up 14.5% in 2012 and salaries over 200,000. Production workers make $35-$39 an hour and can make about $170,000 a year. The boom has pushed costs higher each year. Suncor Energy, the largst producer, is reviewing the viability of large planned multibillion upgrading and mining projects and cutting capital spending in 2012 by 11%. By 2020 oil sands output is forecast to double from the 2011 figure of 1.6 million barrels a day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. In 2012 about 50% of production is from the costlier mining operations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Higher inflation in Germany could help rebalance the German economy by increasing imports. German inflation has averaged 1.6% since 1999, compared to 2.0 % for the eurozone. It was 2.3% in December. And after years of wage restraint German unions are increasing the wage demands. IG Metall is looking for a 6.5% wage increase. And interest rates at 1% are quite low for Germany where unemployment is down to 5.5%, according to Eurostat, and employers have to meet higher wage demands. The ECB is aiming at 2% inflation and Germany has a 26% weighting in the calculation of the rate. But as Italy, France and Spain see inflation decline there is room for addditional inflation in Germany before the eurozone goes well above the 2% inflation rate. By freezing wages and improving price competitiveness with German products, other countries could increase exports. Yet the prospects of this making a large difference is limited because German companies are likely to push for wage restraint. The Bundesbank predicts wage increases of 2.4% in 2012. Over time the wage restraint in other eurozone countries and even slightly higher wages in Germany would reverse the trend since 1999 of Germany having much lower inflation, and this could be one of the factors helping in rebalancing....

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Financial Treaty or Fiscal Compact referendum in Ireland is being fiercely debated in Ireland. The government says the referendum's outcome will determine Ireland's access to financing in financial markets. The opposition parties including Sinn Fein say the fiscal compact for austerity measures in the eurozone will subject Ireland to a decade of austerity and stagnation. The new property tax issue with over half of the population refusing to register has also hardened opinions in Ireland, and helped the opposition parties organize for this referendum. Cutbacks in spending on services and higher taxes will also affect the outcome. Opposition to the fiscal compact is growing in France with Socialist candidate for president, Francois Hollande, saying he will negotiate changes in the treaty to include growth measures. Both sides in Ireland support Hollande's viewpoint that growth is needed, and the election of Hollande is likely to influence the referendum results. As the fiscal compact has already been approved by 25 of 27 countries signing, except for Britain and Czech Republic, and can be ratified by a simple vote of parliament, the Irish referendum will not affect the treaty. Ireland is having this referendum because it is required under Irish law since 1987....

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain accepts assistance from the European Financial Stability Fund with the EFSF committing $125 billion to the Spanish government for a fund specifically intended to recapitalize the banks. Some oversight will be provided by the IMF for Spain's banking system, but this is not a bailout in the sense of IMF conditionality or the EU imposing oversight of Spain's management of its finances and the economy. Instead a compromise was reached where only oversight over its banking system was offered in exchange for the loan. Spain has already committed to improving competitiveness in the economy, and reducing the fiscal deficit with some flexibility due to rising unemployment which has reached 25%. The problems in Spain's banking sector are focussed on the cajas savings banks which financed the housing bubble and not on all banks, with banks such as Europe's second largest bank Banco Santander which have intenational operations being in much better shape. The U.S. and the UK experienced a housing bubble at the same time as Spain, but the governments of both countries moved early on to recapitalize the banking system in 2008-2009. This move is significant because it helps stabilize the gobal economy by fixing the main problem facing Spain of recapitalizing its banks, this being the largest problem in the eurozone....

LyrArc Article Gist
The 2014 budget for Spain is free of the strong austerity measures, cuts in spending, and tax increases, of earlier budgets. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2014, after 1.3% decline in 2013. The unemployment rate is set to decline from 27% high in first quarter of 2013, to 25.9% in 2014. Savings of $800 million euros will come from changes in the pension system and civil servants face a freeze in salaries for the fourth year. The premium over German government bonds for Spain's government bonds is now less than that of government bonds of Italy. Cost of financing Spain's debt is projected to decline by 5.2% to 36.6 billion euros, according to Treasury minister Montero. The EU with the backing of the IMF has considered the high unemployment in Spain in its decision to relax deficit targets. This has given Spain an opportunity to clean up its accounts without further damage to the economy. Spain's deficit will now decline to 6.5% in 2013 from a deficit of 6.8% in 2012. The target for the deficit is set at 5.8% for 2014. Credit is still tight and consumer spending weak, major concerns for the government- in addition to the need for creating jobs- of prime minister Rajoy....

LyrArc Article Gist
A major problem for President Hollande of France in the 2014 budget is how to handle the deficits in the country's Social Security System. Over the years the deficits were transferred to a vehicle called the Cades, which is approaching its legal ceiling of 270 billion euros. The vehicle was originally set up in 1996 with the idea of separating past deficits, so that the state could balance its budget every year for the Social Security System, which covers health care, pension and family allowances. Previous governments have for the most part bypassed this and added new deficits to Cades instead of making cuts in spending. The Hollande administration says it is controlling health care expenses and increasing pension contributions as a way to bring the deficits under control. It will not assess a special tax for the deficit in Social Security in 2014, as new taxes are highly unpopular. Cades lifetime has been extended twice, first in 1997 to 2014, and during the 2009 financial crisis to 2025. In 2010 following the crisis, Cades chairman, Ract Madoux says, the short term borrowing had reached 60 billion euros. It is down to 30 billion euros, which he still considers too high....