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The mood in West Bengal state and the conflict between a communist state government which wants to push for industrialization similar to what they see in China, against more doctrinaire communists in the party who operate at the federal level -who opposed the India-USA nuclear cooperation treaty- and a party led by an activist Mamta Banerjee, who opposes the acquisition of land for industrial development and factories.

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

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The Sri Lankan economy, jobs and growth are affected by economic relations with India, loans and assistance from India, and from investment from India in the 2025 period. USAID plays very little part in jobs and growth. This is true of other countries.  In the past the USAID was seen as part of the activity of the State Department overseas yet kept separate so that aid would not be based on US diplomatic activity. Over time it became a place which supported what critics call bureaucrats pet projects in developing countries. Many developing nations have advanced in their development and no longer need USAID projects, this includes India, Indonesia, China, Vietnam, Brazil, Chile, and parts of Africa. Because development aid was at one time critical as in the period when John Kennedy came to office in the Cold War with the Soviet Union, many nations in Asia and Africa were just becoming independent there was a sense from that time that its acitvity and budget was somehow both independent of the State Department and sacrosanct. As a result it became a target of critics and did not advance the US interests overseas as the US Information Service, the VOA Voice Of America and other agencies have done. A country's development no longer depended on USAID. Why does it need to be separate when it should advance US goals and interests around the world which are benevolent- consider that it is the US that helped build up the Chinese economy and still provides it with a large market. ...

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June 21 is designated International Yoga Day by the United Nations. India celebrates International Yoga Day with 35,000 children and adults doing Yoga in central Delhi. Narendra Modi leads the effort to promote yoga for fitness and health. Yoga research centers are being established to improve health and treat diseases such as diabetes alongside modern medicine. Yoga day practice sessions of yoga were organized throughout India, with the participation of millions of people. Yoga Day activities in Paris, France, included a outdoor yoga session below the Eiffel Tower. In his address to the UN General Assembly on September 27, 2014, Narendra Modi said about yoga: "yoga is not about exercize, but to discover the oneness with oneself, the world and nature." It is part of a 5000 year old tradition from ancient India that promotes meditation, spiritual development and health. This ancient tradition is gradually being revived and is useful in India, China, the Middle East, the U.S. and other countries that see the spread of obesity, diabetes and other health problems. It helps improve spiritual concentration of mind, and increases the body's vital energies....

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DW.com shows the Straits of Hormuz where the Persian Gulf meets the Gulf of Oman before it meets the Arabian Sea facing India. Ships cross a narrow space of 2 miles in the narrowest point that is 21 miles wide in the Straits of Hormuz. The UAE, Oman face Iran in that area. 20 million barrels of oil by tanker traffic cross the Straits of Hormuz every day. India, China, Japan and EU depend on the Straits of Hormuz for oil supplies making it critical for sea navigation. Iranian parliament  has threatened closing of the Straits as aresponse to the US strike on nuclear weapons development sites. China and India lose cheaper oil supplies from Iran as a result of the Israel-Iran war. Russia, Saudis, UAE, Qatar, gain because it increases the price of oil supplies from Russia. Iran loses a source of oil revenue with damage to its oil facilities. The Israeli economy is resilient and its stock markets are showing rapid growth as the war changes the Gulf region and  Southwest Asia, South Asia moving it in the direction of economic and business deals and agreements that enhance improvement in the lives of the people away from decades of conflict from the colonial era in which the British and the French gained control of the Gulf region and Iraq, Syria after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the anti colonial regimes that failed to provide development, the CIA's intervention under Dulles and Eisenhower to remove the democratically elected government of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 and its repercussions in the Reagan period with Rumsfeld/Reagan compounding that error by supporting Iraq's Hussein leading to 3 decades of loss of American lives in the region's wars and also endangering Israel. ...

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Analysts are predicting problems for Honda's plants in China stemming from wage increases. The wages of 500,000 yen per year for a worker in Honda's Chinese plants are double what is paid for a factory worker in India or 33% higher than in Thailand. For the Guangzhou plant to meet domestic demand it would have to have a 50-50 joint venture with a Chinese company, and this would mean getting government approval. For now that plant will remain an export hub. The entire plant -out of 4 Honda has in China- is committed to exporting the Jazz compact to Europe with production of 50,000 vehicles a year. Honda now owns 65% of the plant.

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George Walden reviews "Opium and Empire" by Richard Grace, which focusses on the origins of Jardine, Matheson & Co., the British firm run by two Scottish traders Jardine and Matheson. This firm was at the centre of the trade in opium carried out on the black market in China using opium brought from India. It paid for the shipping expenses to take tea and silks brought back in the British market. The confiscation of a shipment of opium in Canton, China, by a Chinese Commissioner led to the first of the opium wars. This ended with the Treaty of Nanking in 1842 negotiated by Foreigh Secretary Palmerston giving Britain possession of the island of Hong Kong. It was the long history of such depredations, including the Japanese invasion in the 1930's that led to the nationalism and rise of Communists led by Mao in China by 1945.

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Two senior American military officers will now lead operations in Europe. Army Gen. Christopher Cavoli takes over US European Command, and becomes the Head of all Allied Forces in Europe as Supreme Commander Europe, including NATO Command. Lt. Gen. Bryan Fenton will lead the Special Forces Command. Cavoli speaks 3 languages Russian, Italian and French, and has served as a foreign area officer. He also served as Director of Russia in the Joint Staff, and has a masters degree in Russian and Eastern European Studies from Yale University. General Eishenhower had this kind of broad experience in the years after World War I that helped him hold the position of Supreme Allied Commander Europe during the war with Nazi Germany. Lt. Gen Byran Fenton is from Seymour, Tennessee. He is currently based at Fort Bragg as head of Joint Operations Command. Both officers will have to be confirmed by Congress and will operate in a new situation with the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq now being replaced by conventional war in Europe and threats to Taiwan, the Indian border with China, and at the Korean peninsula. ...

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This WSJ report sees Angela Merkel as leaving an international legacy of cooling relations with America. It says Angela Merkel turned down US president Biden's first call after his election as president because she was going to her cottage in the country that weekend. This report says after 4 terms Merkel is to be seen as dramatically increasing her country's economic dependence on China, pushing through a energy deal with Russia, joining France in challenging US political influence in Europe, rejecting American requests on economic policy and setting Berlin's openness to Chinese technology.  What happened with her youthful fascination with America during the years growing up in East Germany asks the WSJ? It also says of the Bush years of unregulated banking leading to the 2009 US banking crisis- that left her with a distaste for Anglo-Saxon banks and Wall Street lobbying. Of the Obama years it says Merkel found Obama unsteady, verbose, and sometimes meddling, with the spying on Merkel's phone also giving her a sense of disrespect to Germany. The result was that Merkel increasingly was fascinated by the Chinese experiment in development, visiting China 13 times while in office, studying Chinese history, politics and economics.  Merkel over this period met with the Dalai Lama and had questions about one party rule by CCP. Yet she became more and more resigned to Germany as a country of 80 million, not the EU and Europe as one group united in vision with a population of about 500 million, larger than America that could be a force for good in its own right. She said "we can be as hardworking, awesome,  as super as we like, but as a country of 80 million we won't be able to prevail if China ever decided that it no longer wants to have good relations with Germany." She ignored the experience of Sweden and Scandinavian countries in their relations with China. In saying this she ignored the potential of India and its neighbors in south-east Asia that make up about 2 billion people or about twice the population of China. She also seemed unaware of the role Woodrow Wilson, FDR, have played in realizing the democratic vision of the German revolutionaries of 1948 who failed to bring democratic government to Germany. And she had forgotten of the role Harry Truman, the commoner president of the US, who played a major role in establishing German democracy and its dignity during the Berlin Crisis after the blockade of Berlin by the Soviets in 1948. The mediocrity of presidents from Bush to Trump has bothered Merkel. Yet it may very well be that there is nothing mediocre about Mr. Biden and America's vision about its future as it grapples with the social and economic problems of the last three decades, as it has done before in its history and come through. ...

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With a mere 1% of GDP invested in public healthcare India remains backward in its commitment to the welfare of the rural poor. Prime minister's Modi's plan is laudable says this BBC report, but the record of implementation is spotty at best at the state level for such plans. The new plan announced in the 2018 Indian Budget is for a health plan covering 500 million Indians with 5 lakh rupees coverage, something never tried before but with a cost of a mere $1.7 billion is something that the country woefully lacked or neglected to tackle.

This plan may be better implemented at the national level, and particularly where the reputation of the governing party and its plans for industrialization are at stake in the coming year's national elections. If accomplished and the Modi government is eager to take on these challenges it would be a significant step to balanced and overall development of the Indian economy.

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Oil supplies are not expected to go up with Mexicio and Russia's aging fields crimping production, non opec production barely budging with 1% increase this year according to IEA. Indonesia production down by half from its peak. Countries in the middle east like Iran are consuming more and have less available for export. And the Saudis plan to build huge chemical aluminium and other plants as well as cities in the desert, and increase electricity production. This will take up some of the oil production and make less available for export. Militant strikes have shut down over 25% of production of Nigeria's 2.5 million barrels a day of production repeatedly in the last few years. And Saudi Arabia has according to CERA only 2 million barrels a day of spare capacity or 2.3% that it can add, all of the safety cushion in one country according to Daniel Yergin. Yergin sees prices up to $150 barrel based on the supply constraints. The demand side is showing declining consumption in the USA but not by enough to compensate for growing consumption in China by 5% this year, and the increase in consumption in India, Russia, Brazil and other developing countries including Middle East. The reason for continuing consumption increases in the rest of the world is that price impact has been less severe in Europe because of the strong euro and oil priced in US dollars, and in China because Petrochina is required to put price caps so gasoline price increases are not that harsh. And India also cushions the price impact to some extent to protect consumers. And autos are just taking off in large numbers in China, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries. The drop in consumption in the USA has to be large enough to have an impact. And the shift to fuel efficient targets in the new fuel efficiency regulations in the USA are too modest and over a number of years to have any impact in the short term or in the next 1-3 years. In February US oil demand dropped to 19.7 million barrels a day, down 1 million barrels a day from the US average for 2007, but this insufficient conservation to impact price. Even though new cars are shifting to higher fuel efficient small cars the impact on the total fleet is gradual as cars on the road purchased in the last 5-10 years are still on the road. Even as the consumption falls in the US the offset is occurring in the other countries like China, Russia and India. Some of this is due to the euro and some to speculation but the supply constraints are real and demand momentum is still there in China, Middle east, Russia and India to keep offsetting savings elsewhere and keeping supplies tight. The euro increased in value by 2% while oil prices increased by 10% since the 1st week of April so there is more than the weakening dollar and some speculation to this surge, which may be why the normally cautious Yergin says the price rise to $150 is realistic and says, its not just that the genie is out of the bottle, a hundred genies are out of the bottle. That is to say for the immediate future of demand momentum and supply sluggishness which could run 6-24 months, to the Olympics and maybe a year or so from then. This ties in with the thinking behind the Goldman's estimate and CERA's estimate. ...

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An assessment of Brazil compared to the other leading emergig market countries Russia, China and India, shows that Brazil has a lot going for it. Compared to Russia and China, Brazil has a stable multiparty democracy. And the differences between the countryside and the urban areas is not quite as large as it is in China and India. Surprising as it may appear about 83% of Brazilians now live in cities. And the process of urbanization that is taking place in China and India took place much earlier in Brazil. Between 1940 to 1980 industrialization and a growth rate that averaged 7% for most of that period brough large numbers of people from rural to urban areas. And the problem of inflation which wracked the economy from 1986 to 1994 before being brought under control is now well under control at about 4.7%. Debt problems from the Asian crisis contagion effects are now behind it as Brazil is a big exporter of commodities from coffee, soyabeans, orange juice to iron ore, with the real strengthening from 68 as measured in the currencies of its trading partners in 2001 to 100 today. Brazil's growth rate has reached 5.4%. and has been at an average of 4.5% since 2004. Between 1980 and 2000 Brazil's growth was in a slump so this has been a period of great changes in Brazil. Brazil is importing more plant and equipment with a stronger currency and booming exports. Brazil invests 19% of GDP according to Vale of MB Associados and that number should reach 25% of GDP at which point it would be easier to maintain a growth rate of 5% a year. With consumer credit growing at 25% each year for the last 2 years consumption is growing. And Brazilian companies were the second largest source of foreign direct investment in developing countries after China, according to the Fundacao Dom Cabral, a business school, and Columbia University, with the stronger real helping the balance sheets of Brazilian companies. The big change is that under the Lula government Brazil has done much better for the working classes and the rural poor. The Bolsa Familias is a program of cash transfers to poor people under the poverty line but which has strings attached so that they are required to send their children to school and have them vaccinated. It reaches 11 million families and is considered a major success in reducing poverty and in helping to see that poverty is not passed on from generation to generation. A program that may be copied in India. Acccording to the Observador Brasil/ Ipsos survey 23 million Brazilians have left social classes D and E and joined class C which means that they can have a rented apartment, a car and some gadgets. This give more confidence in Brazilian democracy and capitalism as more of society's diverse groups have a stake in the future....

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Share of US Counties where 95% of Kindergarteners are vaccinated against Measles drops to 28% from 50% in Washington Post Investigation of 44 states December 2025. 95% vaccination rate is what experts say is needed for "herd immunity" or overall protection in a class. Washington Post examination of data shows marked deterioration from 2018-2019 school year to 2024-2025 school year data and public records. That is 5.3 million children are exposed from lack of herd immunity from measles now compared to 3.5 million children earlier increase of 1.8 million children. This Wash. Post investigation shows 19,000 schools are exposed and one can go to this article to find on a map how your school district and country are doing in the 44 states. A big problem is emerging from public skepticism and politics in vaccination. For generations schools required vaccination proof- by 1980 all 50 states had laws covering students first entering school. And caught in vaccine politics legislatures are creating religious and other exemptions that have weakened laws. Wash. Post says it's examination shows not a single County in Idaho, Louisiana, Oregon Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin meet the 50% vaccinated requirement for measles required for herd immunity. This could mean more of these diseases will be brought back home including whooping cough to affect elderly and infants. Democratic districts such as in St Louis and Chicago also see drop in measles vaccination rates. In the sense that newly decolonized countries since 1950 such as China and India have emerged with good health systems and mandated vaccination , other public health action, there is a great need for the US to focus on bringing back the public awareness that existed after the 1940's in the US that resulted in significant advances in public health in the US in the FDR, Eisenhower, Kennedy, LBJ and Reagan administrations. It shows there is no victory in public health. A lot of work needs to be done, as much of the gains can get undone by events and public awareness is necessary. As pharmaceuticals, chemicals and plastics and bad nutritional habits took over American lives there is an effort under Kennedy at HHS to tackle that health crisis, but it brings with it challenges that date from the pandemic and different responses in different parts of the US to mandatory vaccination which also have to be met through education not social media. ...

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HTC's declining market share in Brazil and its decision to concentrate on the mid to high priced market segments in India and China. It is pulling out of the Brazilian market where the low priced phone segment is growing. HTC has about 7.2% of the global smartphone sales and is experiencing slower sales in 2012. HTC was a Taiwanese contract maker till recently when it launched its own line of Android smartphones.

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Coal is expected to take up 36% of global net electricity generation by 2040, only slightly down from 36% in 2015, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This is the prospect for the future as India increases use of coal and China continues its use of coal. This make clean coal power plants an important part of the solution combined with increasing use of solar, wind, and where safe nuclear energy.

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Changes that president Biden is making to make certain that students who took out a loan of $30,000 for college do not end up paying for two decades, and be still owing $60,000. WSJ explains that the original student loan law written decades ago does not take into account the realities of today as young people are forced into long repayment plans and still cannot complete payment. President Biden has stated that no student loan borrower would be expected to pay more than 5% of his or her income for student loan payments each month. This helps student borrowers across the country and makes college education affordable. Most Americans have failed to realize the importance of higher education and its affordability for the US economy, the US ability to compete with China, India and the EU, and the damage done to US education by outdated laws. The general failure to support education and its affordability has come at a great cost to the US economy and its strength in the world, similar to the damage done by the neglect of manufacturing and communities across America that depend on good manufacturing jobs. The failures of laissez faire theory under Reagan and it becoming part of exiting culture leading to lack of government support for education, manufacturing, and infrastructure has weakened America and neglected communities across the country. ...

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This editorial in WSJ says the WHO report on the most likely source of the pathogen for the coronavirus lacks credibility. It says the statement by former CDC head Mr. Redfield is more credible when he said last week, that the "I still think the most likely etiology of the pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory." Redfield added that virus transfer to a lab worker is not unusual in such research. Even WHO says it needs more research into the source. This editorial says the Biden administration knows the underlying intelligence and should release it to the public, that it should not accept a whitewash of the whole thing, leaving it as an unknowable. The need to take preventive steps in the future would help the world's population including China and India, the most populous nations in the world with most of the world's population, as well as the  countries in Latin America, North America, Africa, and Europe. Because the brunt of the coronavirus impact was borne by the people of the world preventive action is needed to restore hope for the future. One of the lessons of the crisis is that public and governmental involvement from many countries particularly the leading democracies is essential to restore hope, health cannot be delegated to any organization alone much less the WHO, ...

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Officials of 130 countries met virtually to agree on a global minimum tax rate. A minimum tax rate of 15% would be paid by corporations in each of the countries in which they operate so that tax avoidance is prevented. The Group of 20 major economies including India and China also agreed to this change in taxation to ensure that all companies pay their fair share of taxes. It is also part of the Biden plan for tax revenue generation to fund the infrastructure and human needs in health, education and public services that were neglected for so long. US president Biden says- "This will level the playing field and also make America more competitive. And it will allow us to devote the additional revenue we raise to make generational investments, which are necessary to keep America's competitive edge razor sharp in today's global economy." This tax change was needed to prevent companies shopping for low tax locations such as Ireland. This kind of locating in low tax rate locations worked badly for the major G-20 economies for decades as it prevented the generation of revenues needed for essential services and infrastructure investments. Tax changes include Biden's plan to increase the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, and raise the minimum tax on US based companies foreign profits to 21% from 10.5%.  ...

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Now that congestion pricing plan is halted, the New York Subway system that has suffered from decades of neglect and disinvestment languishes in crisis. The NYT says it is hanging by a thread in this report. Compare this with the Tokyo subway or subways in Taiwan, China,  or other countries and one realizes how much damage years of disinvestment driven by Reagan/Friedman economic theory can do. Where Asian countries are investing in infrastructure, eight years after Republican Trump called for attention to infrastructure but failed to invest, and four years after the trillion dollar infrastructure program of president Biden, NY subway remains neglected. Ana Ley tells us what a difficult time it is for New Yorkers. After decades of neglect new subways are going up even in places such as Mumbai, India. How much longer must New Yorkers wait for government to partner with private industry for the NY subway system to be rebuilt, in the state that is where the Erie Canal was built in the nineteenth century in the first wave of the Industrial Revolution? The Erie Canal was built in 7 years for $7 million as navigable waterway with locks for elevation of 350 miles from the Hudson River at Albany to Buffalo and Lake Erie. It opened up the vast hinterland and granary of New York state and connected it to New York City, from the Atlantic to the Great Lakes. ...

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The global impact of the credit and housing crisis as it extends from USA to the rest of the world. Heavy machinery makers such as Japan and Germany are doing better than consumer goods exporters like China, and Asian countries like Thailand and Malaysia. And countries that borrowed heavily like Hungary are being watched by lending institutions. Commodities producers like Australia and Russia and Brazil are continuing to do well. For Middle Eastern countries the bigger danger is overheating in their economies as inflation soars. But while the crisis spreads the forecasts have only been taken down a notch displaying the conservative wait and see instincts of forecasters so that China and India still continue to grown near double digits which is not likely to hold up as one goes into 2008 and 2009 and actually might slip considerably from the high growth rates of the past as a number of factors converge especially in the case of China but also for India.

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Roubini sees hard landing and recession lasting at least for 2008. Bergsten sees companies like IBM, Caterpillar and GE and others helping moderate the downturn because of demand from China and India which he calls reverse coupling. Yu sees China entering a delicate stage, India helped by domestic demand.