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U.S. Slump Takes Toll Across Globe

Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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The global impact of the credit and housing crisis as it extends from USA to the rest of the world. Heavy machinery makers such as Japan and Germany are doing better than consumer goods exporters like China, and Asian countries like Thailand and Malaysia. And countries that borrowed heavily like Hungary are being watched by lending institutions. Commodities producers like Australia and Russia and Brazil are continuing to do well. For Middle Eastern countries the bigger danger is overheating in their economies as inflation soars. But while the crisis spreads the forecasts have only been taken down a notch displaying the conservative wait and see instincts of forecasters so that China and India still continue to grown near double digits which is not likely to hold up as one goes into 2008 and 2009 and actually might slip considerably from the high growth rates of the past as a number of factors converge especially in the case of China but also for India.

Economic and sales forecasts in the boom years before the 2008 financial crisis, and well into the downturn, that lost objectivity and analytical focus.

07/14/2005

How objectivity and analytical focus was lost as company and association management in the housing, auto and other industries, and their economists tried to believe and maintain the status quo. A similiar situation at the US central bank, the IMF, and other locations. The tendency to be upbeat and ignore emerging danger signs requiring a more realistic assessment. And the frequent revisions as a result of this.

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Australia Suggests End of Home Boom Needn't Be Dire

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As Data Point to Slowdown, Housing Market May Land Harder Than Economists Predict

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A Resilient World Economy

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In a Sea of Optimism, Why Some Forecasters Warn of Recession

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