LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Agriculture Department cuts its estimate of corn crop yield per acre in the U.S. by 15.5%, as a result of the severe drought in 2012. Agriculture Secretary Vilsack, says the situation for farmers is better this time than during the last drought in 1988. Now 85% of farmers have crop insurance compared to 25% in 1988. The Agriculture Department estimate is for a 3-4% increase in prices in 2013. Capital Economics says the impact on GDP in the U.S. will be about 0.1%. Because 40% of the corn crop goes into ethanol production there is renewed debate about the 2005/2007 Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires 13.2 billion gallons of corn based biofuel be made in 2012. Worldwide the bad weather conditions in Brazil, India and Russia are worsening the outlook for food supplies. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says global food prices increased by 6% in July 2012, with corn prices up 23%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The new bipartisan sanctions on Russia agreement in the U.S. Congress has the support of key senators, McConnell and Corker on the Republican side, Schumer and Cardin on the Democratic side. The agreement would impose new sanctions on Russia and provide for a mandated congressional review. This follows Russian meddling in the U.S. 2016 election and cyberattacks. This measure is being considered as a sanctions bill on Iran is being passed.

LyrArc Article Gist
An effort by educated Chinese in business, government, and other professions to have informal discussions in small groups through getting together for dinner. This helps educated Chinese find ways to communicate their concerns about corruption, abuse of power by public officials, contamination of food, air and water pollution.

LyrArc Article Gist
Compared to the situation in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis with the excess supply of labor, China in 2012 faces an excess in demand for labor. In 2009 about 20% of migrant workers were unemployed when the crisis hit, and wages dropped 10% for migrant workers, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. The situation three years later is one of tight labor markets and higer wages. A large stimulus in not only not needed today in the way it was in 2008-2009 as a way to maintain social stability, it would reduce the benefits of the anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012, by putting more pressure on wages and prices. Manufacturing sector wages increased by 20.1% in 2011, according to China's statistics bureau. This may be why the Chinese government is taking measured steps to avoid creating more bad loans through indiscriminate lending, and being more selective in accelerating development projects in the pipeline. According to Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Officer China plans to have about 7% growth. This shift in approach would help China refocus on growth strategies recommended in the recent Development Reform Commission and World Bank Report on China....

LyrArc Article Gist
A recent study by the IMF shows that China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves that are twice what would be needed for traditional purposes such as supporting the economy in a financial crisis. China is still very much a developing country with per capita annual income of $3000, low consumer spending, and rising inflation. This makes the policy of accumulating reserves and preserving an undervalued exchange rate to support export companies counterproductive. There is growing debate about this as inflation is becoming difficult to control. Yu Yongding, an advisor to the PBOC monetary policy committee says China as a developing country should not be exporting capital, which should be used to raise living standards. A rising exchange rate would increase spending power of people throughout China. Fan Gang, head of China's National Economic Research Institute, was a member of the central bank monetary policy committee. He wrote in a recent essay arguing for a higher exchange rate, and societal, tax and other changes that help increase China's household spending. Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded reasonable levels that the country needs, adding to inflation risks and making it difficult to conduct monetary policy. The reserves are now over $3 trillion, pasing that mark in March 2011 after increasing 25% in the last year....

LyrArc Article Gist
Remember the pictures of all the bicyclists in cities in China, now there are cars instead, and that we assumed was progress. But crammed as we are into small urban areas, and with so many people in the planet and so many with aspirations for a better life in China, India, Brazil and Russia and other countries, this does not point to a sustainable future. We need bicycles back and a new kind of automobile that is sustainable on the streetsof urban areas. So here we are in New York City and commercial buildings like the Rockefeller Center operated by Tishman Meyer following old rules prohibiting bicycles, looking down on bicyles, and seeing bicycles as affecting safety in the building. So cyclists are on their own. The city has about 5000 bicycle racks, and will add 1200 by 2009, and expects to add 37 bike shelters each for 8-9 bikes by the end of the year at transit hubs. The number of bike racks are inadequate as nearly 131,000 people ride bicycles daily in New York City according to Transportation Alternatives. The city has plans to add 200 miles of new bicycle lanes but mparking is a huge problem. Parking on the street is also risky because of bike thieves in New York City. So new solutions have to be found and it would be nice if building had an area on the ground floor with a separate access for cyclists or a way to go to underground parking through a separate acess and directly park and take elevators just as one does for underground car parking. This would be really commuter friendly but till then its the shop owner who lets youpark there or a friend who has a business and an area where he lets you park your bike and so on, everybody having to be creative. But make no mistake bicycles matter for clean air, the environment, for congestion, for people, for healthy living, and to create a good living environment in urban areas....

LyrArc Article Gist
Malaysia's debt to GDP ratio increased to 242% in mid-2012 from 192% in 2008 according to McKinsey. As export growth has slowed the Malaysian government is relying on credit expansion to consumers and large capital projects such as the planned subway project in Kuala Lumpur to sustain growth. Similiar credit expansion is seen in other Asian countries- Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong. The period 2008 to 2013 has seen a rapid acceleration in credit expansion in these countries and especially in China. China's debt to GDP ratio increased to 183% in mid 2012 from 153% in 2008, according to McKinsey. Nomura Holding's economist Zhiwei Zhang, and other economists say it is above 200% when government data on "shadow banking" lending institutions such as trust companies is included. IMF economist Giovanni Dell'Ariccia has studied of debt expansion and credit booms since the 1970's. He and other economists at the IMF have found that credit booms- the rapid increase in credit to GDP ratios- end up in crises one third of the time, result in below par growth in another third of the time, and only in one third of the time does growth continue at the high pace. Alex Frangos talks to government officials in Kuala Lumpur who do not take seriously the high vacancy rate for office buildings in the capital of about 20% even as new office towers are being built. Bob Davis gives the example of government owned Hunan Expressway company in China which has a huge road building program and doubled its 2009 debt levels. Another state owned company in shipping China Cosco Holdings increased total debt from 85 billion yuan in 2009 to 123 billion yuan in 2012. As export growth slowed in China in 2009 credit expansion is driving growth. The normal restraints of the market are absent in China's state owned companies. Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch Ratings Inc in Beijing, says 2012 demonstrated that the Chinese government cannot slow credit growth without risking a decline in growth. China's GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.7% from 7.9% in the 4th quarter of 2012. This poses a serious problem for China. China has never experienced the kinds of problems seen in Asia after the 1997 banking crisis, in the eurozone today, and in the U.S. following the financial crisis of 2008, making government officials prone to complacency about the risks....

LyrArc Article Gist
Th Bombay Stock Exchange closes after the Sensex surged by 17% in one day, after the decisive election victory of the Congress party, winning all but a dozen or so seats needed to have a majority at 272 seats in the new Parliament.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Economist cautions that because of a combination of household debt and toxic assets at banks, America's crisis may be even worse than Japan's, with low or nonexistent growth, and huge deficits to prop up demand as consumers raise their savings rate.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford executes new strategy for reaching the younger first time buyers of small cars in India. The car is a hatchback called the Figo designed with the help of Indian engineers for the Indian and overseas markets. It has done a$500 million expansion of its plant in Chennai, India, doubling production to 200,000 vehicles ayear, and 250,000 diesel engines a year by 2010. Mullaly says: "literally India is designing the small car for the world." Separately Ford is building a new car plant in Chongquing, China, for 300,000 cars, midsize and suv's. The change is huge and dramatic for car production. CSM Worldwide predicts car sales in India 45% higher in 2011 compared to 2007, and 39% growth in China, 26% in Brazil. In contrast, car sales in North Americaand Europe will not have returned to 2007 levels by 2011. Considering declining levels in Japan and Germany sales may be on a slow downturn. See links to this. For instance Ford predits Ford's production in North America will decline to 35% of global production by 2015 from 54% in 1997. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China adopts a two child policy nationwide in October 2015, abandoning a one child policy adopted in 1980. Experts had warned for years of a policy that would lead to fewer young people, and a rapidly aging society. UN forecasts show China will have about 400 million people over the age of 60 in 2030, 25% of the population in 2030, compared to 14% today if current trends continued. Growth of elderly people would burden the pension and health care systems. The birth rate of 1.4 children per woman is lower than in the U.S. today.

LyrArc Article Gist
Chinese government data show that inflation was 3.1% in May 2010. The spread of wage increases in manufacturing after a series of strikes at Hon Hai and Honda Motor suggest that price pressures will grow even further. Analysts warn that China's central bank will have to raise interest rates to control the boom in the economy and property markets; that merely reining in credit will not work. They also suggest the need for swifter action in revaluing the yuan. As wage increases spread throughout manufacturing, this will eventually be reflected in higher prices of end products.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's consumer price index went up by 2.1% in March 2013, slower inflation than the 3.2% for February 2013. Food prices are growing at a slower rate, increasing by 2.7% in March over the prior year month, compared to a 6% increase over the prior year month in February.

LyrArc Article Gist
Biden meets German chancellor Scholz during Scholz's 2 day visit to the US. He tells Scholz: "I want to thank you for your strong and steady leadership. I mean that sincerely. It's made a huge difference." Ahead of this meeting Scholz called on China to "use your influence in Moscow to press for the withdrawal of Russian troops," and "not to supply weapons to the aggressor Russia," in a speech to the Bundestag German parliament Thursday.

LyrArc Article Gist
Hillary Clinton attacks Trump's policies in an address in Warren, Michigan, saying this was another version of failed trickle down economics. She called Trump's idea of taxing pass through entities such as small business reporting business income on individual tax returns at 15%, as a "Trump loophole." On trade policy Hillary Clinton said she would oppose the TPP or Trans- Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement that president Obama has supported. She put it flatly- " I oppose it now. I'll oppose it after the election, and I'll oppose it as president." And pointed out that too many companies have moved jobs overseas and "moved operations overseas and sold back into the U.S." after pushing for trade deals. The answer she said 'is not to rant and rave- or to cut us off from the world," in reference to protectionist policies Trump has supported. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Costs of solar projects are going up by 30-40% with the costs of importing products that may contain tainted polysilicon produced in violation of the US law on forced labor, the UFLPA. This only shows the need to make solar panels in the US and Europe, say US and American companies buying the solar panels.  Buyers of China's solar panels are now required to prove the key ingredient of polysilicon called quartzite was not mined in Xinjiang region occupied by China.