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The problems Brazil faces with a sea of liquidity from developed countries with low interest rates going to emerging market countries with higher interest rates. Brazil is taking steps including a recent cut in interest rates to stem the flow. But interest rates at 12% are still too high not to attract business people in the carrying trade who borrow at low rates in the U.S. and Europe and invest the money in Brazil. The foreign direct investment has also increased. The result is an artificially overvalued currency- by as much as 36% since Jan 1, 2009 according to analysts- which hurts exporters and job creation in Brazil, as it becomes cheaper to import products than manufacture at home. Workers from VW recently protested in Sao Paulo as imports of cars are up significantly and there is a fear of job reduction at VW plants in Brazil. Brazil's automakers association estimate is for car imports to make up 25% of all cars sold in Brazil in 2011. This compares with 5% of cars sold being imported in 2005. It also shows up in production statistics. Brazilian industrial production declined by 1.6% in June 2011 from May. The cost of inputs are increasing rapidly for labor, raw materials, transportation, making Brazil a costly place to do business. The cost of living is now higher in Sao Paulo than in New York city. Cynthia Benedetto, the CFO of Embraer, a large Brazilian aircraft maker, says she always thought since she was a little girl that Brazil was the place of the future. But its deceptive now that the future is here, because this euphoria of progress could be shortlived. Embraer is investing in technology to reduce labor costs and is opening factories overseas. Bombardier, one of Embraer's competitors from Canada recently announced plans to build a manufacturing plant in Mexico. Brazilian president Rousseff is aware of this, and told Latin American leaders in Lima, Peru: "we have to defend ourselves against this immense, fantastic, extraordinary sea of liquidity that finds its way to our economies in search of returns that it can't find in its own." At the same time Rousseff has election promises to fulfill that require larger spending and for which the capital inflows are convenient but could prove erratic- for social welfare projects, and for infrastructure spending in advance of the Olympics. Turkey is seeing a similiar situation with booming consumer credit sustained by capital inflows even as its manufacturing competitiveness has remained weak. ...

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With its slogan "Expect More, Pay less" Target has tried to combine low prices with moving upmarket, carrying designer merchandise and chic styling without breaking the family budget. Now with the recession and consumers becoming frugal in the USA, Target and its new CEO who took on the role in May 2008, Steinhafel, is looking at Wal-Mart to see how it can also emphasize the low prices in this recessionary climate. With store sales fallig by 10% in early 2009 Target executives were concerned that something needed to be done. And the thing was to bring even lower prices withor making customers feel cheap. Its chief marketing officer natty Francis always believed in the marketing philosophy of the 1952 book about Marshall Field "Give the Lady What She Wants." Question was what the lady wanted in today's environment. Instead of the old aspirational image of the designers behind Target apparel, Francis now put up the idea of how good value can be chic too. Target designers emphasized how the lady can look "frugalista fabulous." The other challenge was introducig groceries in the store. And instead of packaged foods he idea was to introduce fresh foods which have higher margins. Protype grocery stores were put up and the concept launched. And now instead of gradual rollout, Target went hyper local putting fresh food in all 30 Philadelphia stores. And the marketing ads, radio, newspaper circulars, TV everything made Philly residents aware of the move. Sales went up by 5to 10%. Now the concept has proven to work and Target plans to put in in 350 stores in 2010. And Nat Francis thinks Target did not move fast enough considering how quickly consumers have turned frugal. In the new frugal environment Target research showed its working-mom was obsessing about the price of milk not the thigh-high boots, and she was visiting the grocery store twice aweek and Target only 3 times amonth. Showing groceries mattered. Meantime Target's markeing is ore focussed and its creating the perception that Target and Wal-mart are so close on price. Target is actually devoting 75% of its advertising budget to price compared to 25% in 2008. So a 32 inch panel TV is $246, a coffeemaker is $3. Yet Target executives don't want to undo a strategy built up over years of a better customer experience, designer merchandise at lwer prices, something that would differentiate it from Wal-Mart. So the moves may simply be an adjustment to comport with the thriftier savings oriented times....

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This election is seen as a turning point for Britain. The Liberal-Conservative coalition has come up with a radical plan to cut spending and decentralize services in the areas of education, policing and health care. The plan is to cut the deficit quickly from 11% of GDP in 2009-10, to 2.1% in 2014-15. By comparison the outgoing Labor government's plan was to balance the budget by 2016-17. And the fiscal impact of Labor's budgets would have been 4% by 2014-15, compared to the Cameron government's looking at 6.3%, with larger and accelerated cuts in spending. It is something of a gamble by the Tory-Liberal government. If the severity of the cuts in spending stifle growth, then Plan B will be needed. The size of the cuts are not seen as feasible. With growing interest payments with the large borrowing by the government, and no real cuts in healthcare spending, departments delivering public services in Britain face cuts of 25% by 2014-15. With defense and schools limited to cuts of 10%- other departments would face cuts of 33%. According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies one way to reduce the severity of these cuts in department budgets, would be to find additional savings in the welfare budget. In June, Mr Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, announced 11 billion pounds in savings in this area (with half coming from using a different measure for inflation in calculating benefits). Additional savings of 14 billion pounds in welfare budgets, can reduce the size of the cuts needed in departmental budgets to 20%. One example cited is means-testing payments that go to the affluent as well as to poor people, such as child benefits, and cutting winter-fuel payments. Tories and Liberals agree on the need to decentralize government and services in the areas of schools, policing and the NHS. In schooling the idea is to give more choices to parents and children. Current schools can apply for academy status and new "free schools" will be run be non-profits, charities, churches, and parents. These schools will have freedom to set pay, select curriculum, and still receive state funding. In policing, the idea is to have directly elected police and crime commissioners for every constabulary in England and Wales. The elected commissioners would appoint constables and determine budgets and priorities. For the National Health Service the move is to give groups of general practitioners a significant role in the delivery of health care. ...

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As Japanese sales in the USA drop from 4.35 million vehicles in 2007 to 4 million in 2008 and an estimated 3.67 million in 2009 according to CSM Worldwide, even the Prius and the Honda Civic are afected. The Mississipi Blue Springs plant originally designed for the Higlander SUV , then assigned the task of making Prius after the shift to smaller cars, now will not make the Prius. The plant investment will stop at $300 million, with the plant construction being completed but the equipment not being installed, and no plans to manufacture cars there till things improve and the plant is made fully operational. At the same time it is noteworthy that employees Toyota has hired at the plant will keep their jobs. Toyota has not laid off permanent staffers at its plants in North America or any other region despite slowing sales in its worldwide markets. What does this mean? The culture of the United Autoworkers Union developed through the prewar confrontations between the union and the auto companies, and union workers and union officials and company managers came to a consensus through these struggles with the coexistence of high executive compensation and union medical benefits and other benefits and job security. But its not really been a frutiful arrangement as it has constantly been whittled away and eroded to the point of going out of existence even as the union clung on to the old ideas and management just went on with the status quo. Jobs security is nonexistent and jobs constantly cut as plants close, and now high executive compensation will face government oversight with the auto loans. See the link to Business Week which states that the numbers show the auto workersin Detroit union plants pay about 5% of their medical costs as opposed to 30% for workers who have healtcare coverage in the USA. But what good is the additional benefit in an environment where plants are constantly closing and jobs being cut. Is'nt aworker at a Toyota plant with no job cuts but costlier medical benefits better off than his Detroit counterpart? Which is to say with forward looking management that lowered executive compensation and unions that discarded an entitlement attitude and proactively matched its medical benefits to levels to nonuninized Japanese plants, and management that proactively shifted to higher fuel efficency and smaller cars in the interest of energy conservation and good strategy to be level with companes like Honda ad Toyota in that performance measure, wouldn't that have led to fewer plant closures and jobs, and public support across the country including in dealer showrooms?...

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Classic story of a chain that fit the times and was on a tear as hundreds of Applebees opened all across the American landscape and it became a sign that a small town had arrived to have one. And then as quickly as it had grown it began its downhill slide as it lost touch with the times. Eating healthy had become popular, organic or fresh healthy ingredients were now poular, so also tastes had become more varied as the ethnic landscape of America changed and as more people travelled in the states and abroad, and people tried new flavors, so also new restaurants that opened were doing all these things, and cooking shows on TV popularized the new things to more of the Applebee's customer segment which had modest incomes around $50,000. How do you create a menu that is healthy and fits this kind of budget even as you compete with more and more choices for the average American. The you have the decor it s now outdated the kind of decor Applebee started with.

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Treasury Secretary Paulson meets Germany's Economics minister and the President of the European Central Bank Mr Trichet as there are indications that the situation in Europe is not looking much better. An influential survey of purchasing managers points out that manufacturing activity shrank in the 15 country euro region in June. The situation in Europe is uneven as some countries Like Spain and Ireland are seeing sharp declines in economic activity, whereas Germany is doing much better. German unemployment dropped to 7.8% the lowest it has been since 1992. Manufacturing activity contracted in June in Fance, Italy and Austria. In the midst of this Claude Trichet has to make a decision about inflation, the ECB's target inflation is 2%, and inflation in the euro region is about 4% with higher food and energy costs. Economists expect the ECB to raise rates to 4.25% this week. This will widen the difference between USA interest rates at 2% and Euro region rates at 4.25% and also affect the USA dollar....

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To gauge economic progress and improvement in living standards, instead of GNP alone look at number of indicators. Look at healthcare and education, cleaner skies and cleaner air, water and land. This is what areport commissioned by President Sarkozy of France, done by Siglitz and Amartya Sen, esentially emphasizes. And be careful when you see more cars and gasoline and more driving drive up GDP numbers and growth because this may actually work in the wrong direction, and have unusual negative effects as the SUV buildup and later collapse led to destroying companies and jobs in Michigan and the midwestern USA.

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Stephen Hadley, national security advisor to President George W. Bush, says there is every likelihood that the new government in Egypt after the departure of Mubarak will be non-Islamist and committed to a free and democratic Egypt. Such an Egypt would he says become a leader of a movement toward freedom ad democracy in the Arab world. Reports from Egypt in the New York Times and Washington Post show that the protests are led by younger people, many of them under 30 years of age, educated and middle class, interested mainly in moving Egypt to a democratic government and economic opportunity for all.

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Krugman sees Japanese style deflation as a plausible threat in 2011. He says that there is a very real possibility that the US would be seeing deflation in 2011.

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Under VW CEO Martin Winterkorn sales were up by 77% to 10.2 million units, revenues by 92% to 202 billion euros, and net profit tripled to 10.8 billion euros from 2007 to 2014. Winterkorn's contract ends in 2016.

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It appears that P&G and Unilever have caught on to what may be one of the biggest developments in consumer products as the global economy incorporates hundreds of millions of small budget buyers in developing countries from Mexico to India. Just look at the figures here- these high frequency stores like the one in Leon, Mexico mentioned here, bring in per shopper 23 pesos or about $2, with annual sales of about $16 billion. As their incomes increase they could be buyers of the same brands they are accustomed to and move upscale in the years ahead. Another article talked abot Walmart's success in Mexico's urban areas. It appears that there are two trends one of the high frequency stores in the rural areas and the smaller villages and towns, and the other of large stores in the growing urban areas with buyers from the newly affluent urban classes. What is interesting is the close attention that is required to sell to high frequency stores and the sense of respect that needs to be shown for the economy, price and budget, buying habits to tailor products for their special needs. As for example: the one time use Head and Shoulders shampoo that costs 2 pesos, the feminine hygiene pad product with aloe that can be used longer with extra absorbent cotton, the Downy Single Rinse to conserve water usage. All the time the attention to a quality product that delivers and gains sales by word of mouth....

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Why the Arc of Taste, an international catalogue of at risk foods put together by Italian journalists, is a question put to this author of Eating to Extinction, about the lack of biodiversity in foods. Basically it is about the enormous variety in nature that has been taken away from us by supermarkets and large fruit and vegetable companies that have limited everything to a few varieties in a supermarket for the sake of efficiency in commerce. You may find it amazing, as Saladino says, Victorians may have eaten a apple a day for four years and never eaten the same one twice. So the first thing is to increase the awareness of people of how much diversity really exists in nature if it is allowed to reassert itself over simply food that meets the needs of commerce. Looking clearly at what is lost, Saladino tells The Guardian in this interview, he is reminded of his childhood in Ribera, Sicily, where in the 70's there were so many varieties of oranges and so much color in the food compared to the blandness and limited variety of today's commerce based supermarkets. These small farms have disappeared, and now the varieties that came with them are also in danger unless this biodiversity is restored. ...

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Greg Ip of the WSj points out that Britain is in a weaker position to tackle Brexit than it was when Boris Johnson called for supporting the Yes vote to Leave the EU three years ago in the referendum. Business investment is lower than France, Germany and even Italy. And today protectionism, nationalism, hostility to globalization mean that its not so easy to increase exports by signing free trade agreements with other nations. Even a treaty with a friendly Trump administration  is not certain as Mr. Trump favors looking at how he can get the best deal and reverse any advantages of other trading nations, Britain being no exception. A trade agreement with the U.S. could mean the U.S. barring Britain from signing one with China as a condition of Mr. Trump. Greg Ip also points out that it was precisely joining the EU that helped Britain catch up with German and French standards of living after a period of low growth, inflation, and balance of payments crises in the 1970's. Joining the European Economic Community was as prime minister Heath stated would " enable us to be more efficient and more competitive in gaining more markets not only in Europe but in the rest of the world."   ...

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Anton Harder in this Wilson Center publication of research uses correspondence between Jawaharlal Nehru and his sister Vijaylakshmi Pandit ambassador to the US in 1950, to show that the US made an offer for India to take a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. India had supported two resolutions on June 25, and June 27, first condemning the invasion by North Korea and second the organizing of a UN force of 29 countries to push back the North Korean invasion. Even though the US is not seen as actively engaging with India during that period and seeing through British eyes the colonial policies of encouraging  different powers in South Asia, that may not be true.  Who was India's foreign minister in 1950? Jawaharlal Nehru was both prime minister and foreign minister till 1964, which means there was less discussion of foreign policy than happens today during the Ukraine invasion with Jaishankar a career diplomat with 30 years experience, Rajnath Singh, and Mr. Modi, in talks with president Biden recently, and in further discussions Modi had with EU's Von der Leyen and UK's Boris Johnson, Kishida of Japan. Who was India's defense minister in 1950? Baldev Singh, a Sikh independence struggle leader was Minister of Defense for 1947-52 and tackled partition of Punjab and Kashmir issues. The rest of the years to 1957 when India faced the Chinese invasion of Tibet India's defense minister was also for most of the period Mr. Nehru, except Ayynagar in 1953, and Kailash Katju in 1955 and 1956. The controversial V.K. Krishna Menon was Defense Minister from 1957 to 1962, when Indian defenses were further neglected leading to the Chinese invasion of India in 1962, and his replacement by Yashwantrao Chavan. The purpose of this is to look back at what happened in earlier periods to understand where India stands today- and what choices it makes today. Clearly the US was looking for allies then and now. Nehru saw things from his own reading of history seeing China and India as both suffering from western invasion, not realizing that China's experience under Mao was different- that of Japanese invasion and bombing of China's major cities not just colonization of Hong Kong and other ports for trade under British trade based policies in 1850-1900. Thus a Communist Chinese version of China's defense involved taking over border regions such as Tibet putting China in direct and open opposition to India. Nehru never really grasped what was happening in Tibet and the war China fought against the Nationalists. American general Stilwell loved China deeply and had an understanding of its people as shown in Tuchman's account in her book Stilwell and the American Experience in China 1911-1945. Stilwell during that war had a better understanding of China, the strengths and weaknesses of Mao's China and of the Nationalists under Chiang, than Nehru. Some of these errors post 1950's and a concentration of foreign, defense and embassy positions in the person of Mr. Nehru and of Nehru family member such as Mrs. Pandit led to the Indian failure to act on Tibet and see it as see it for what it was -facing a Communist Mao led China that had fought the Japanese invasion as different from Bodhidharma's China of the history books. Bodhidharma's China will outlast Mao's China, yet it is Mao's China that India faces today. This also tells us that India has to think in new ways- as Lincoln said during a period when America was also making its own progress as an industrial nation in the 1860's. "The dogmas of the quiet past are not adequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise to the occasion. As our case is new, we must think anew, we must act anew. We must disenthrall ourselves, and we shall save our country." India's values are values of democracy heightened not just by Mohandas Gandhi's ideas with Hind Swaraj written in 1910 just as powerful in 2022, but also by the heights of Ladakh where elections are held in remote regions of the Himalayas. India's values are values that are also shared in the best that America has in its values and culture and in the defense of freedom.    ...

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White drives a Chrysler 300 sedan diesel powered and made for European use, fast enough to go past speed limit but still gives an average of 28 miles in city and highway driving. The EPA rating for this car is 22 miles per gallon in its US V-6 model, so the Chrysler CRD 300 made for Europe has a 27% fuel efficiency advantage over its American counterpart. White borrowed it from a friend who was showing European diesel technology in the U.S. Cleaner diesel technology is spotlighted in this test drive. Also attention is drawn to fuel availability. This fall oil companies will be required to supply Americans at the gas pump with low sulfur diesel fuels on which the diesel cars with the clean diesel technology run, for cars like the Chrysler CRD 300. Automakers from Japan, Europe and the US are looking to transfer this technology developed for Europe to the US, with some improvements to meet American environmental standards, especially in lare sedans, SUV's and pickups. The statistics for US diesel use on the road are as follows: 1. About 3-4% of light vehicles in the US run on diesel. White quotes industry executives as comfortable with a JD Power estimate of diesel use by 2010-2012, or about 6-8 year horizon of 10% of all passenger vehicles. 2. John Moulton, president of the powertrain division of Robert Bosch Gmbh, forecast diesel use by 15% of the passenger vehicles in the U.S. by 2015. Use in Europe is about 50% by comparison. 3. Usage of diesel will be highest in the bigger cars and vehicles . This is where the 20-30% savings in fuel cost would be substantial enough to cover the $2000-$6000 additional cost for the diesel powered vehicles using the latest clean diesel technology. DaimlerChrysler is already moving forward with coming up with versions of the diesel models used in Europe for the American market. VW currently is the leader in the American market. About 20% of VW's sold in April 2006 use diesel. This is going up every year 12% in 2004, 14% in 2005. In 2008 VW will have all its mainstream models available in all 50 states in diesel versions. ...

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P&G's experience in China shows that mothers are willing to spend more on diapers for their children. After aiming at the lower end for a frugal middle class diaper, the company is trying to catchup with more popular and better quality Japanese diapers at the higher end of the price range. With fewer children Chinese mothers are known to spend more on children in their family budgets.

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The deep split in American public opinion over the Iran nuclear deal.