LyrArc Article Gist
Fewer workers will support the elderly in the U.S. and the process is accelerating, posing new problems for Social Security programs. Census figures show in 2017 there were 25 Americans 65 years or older for every 100 people in working years, by 2030 this figure goes up to 35 retirees. By 2025 it will reach 33 retirees. By comparison in 2025 Canada would be 40 retirees, Germany 44, Japan 58, and on the lower side India at 13, Mexico 16, China 22. Trustees for Social Security are dipping into the Trust fund in 2018 to pay benefits for first time since 1982.

States are in worse shape $2.6 trillion in assets cover $4 trillion in liabilities in fiscal 2016, according to data from Pew Trust.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tensions continue between Nissan and Renault after the prosecution of Carlos Ghosn. Renault asks a Japanese investment bank to approach Nissan to setup a plan for a holding company. Nissan owns a smaller share of the shares in the alliance 15% stake even though it is the dominant partner, compared to 44% for Renault, and 15% for the French government.  This is the result of the original merger decades ago when Nissan was in a financial crisis. The imbalance in management control and shareholding structure is a major complaint of Japanese executives. Today nationalist sentiment in Japan, and Nissan executives see the arrangement giving Renault major management role as an affront to Japanese sentiment and underrating the contributions on the Japanese side of the alliance which is technically superior.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tim Cook talks to developers at a world wide virtual and in person event. 

Apple will introduce a new 13.5 inch Macbook Air with a inhouse M2 chip for $1195 on sale in July 2022. A new 13 inch Macbook Pro will also be made.

The new iPhone with 5G capability had sales of $191 billion in fiscal year ending in September 2021. iPhone sales up 6.2% in 2022 vs 39% in 2021 when the pandemic led to remote work on Apple and other PC's.

App store and ad sales up by 17% to $80 billion, larger than Mac and iPad sales. 

Apple Pay will break payments into 4 installments as an option. Messages will have an unsend or edit option for 15 minutes.

LyrArc Article Gist
"They are not doing a goddamned thing" about climate change, says Gavin Newsom about large oil companies. "I came here on a car that uses gas. I'm not naive. Nor am I naive about their deceit and delay, and as a consequnce of the delay" in climate change action. As Gavin Newsom begins a second term as governor of California, and sets his sights on the 2028 presidential elections, he makes climate change action a key part of his platform. By 2035 a ban on the sale of gas powered cars. By 2045 no oil drilling in the state, By 2045 a mandate to stop adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. A new law requiring major companies to self disclose their green house gas emissions. Such is the pace he is setting. He just 

LyrArc Article Gist
For the last decade restrictions on sale or purchase of apartments in new buildings were being put in place by the Chinese government to make sure that buildings were for living not for speculation. With the current downturn in construction after collapse of Evergrande and other construction companies, and China depending on construction for one third of economic growth, this policy has changed. Previously couples who divorced just to buy a second apartment were not allowed to buy one for three years. People had to move to Chengdu and pay local taxes for three yeas before they could buy an apartment in the city. These restrictions are now lifted to promote new construction that had fallen quickly after some big bankruptcies and homeowner protests over incomplete buildings in 2022-2023.

LyrArc Article Gist
Heidi Moore calls the Merrill-Bank of America deal a Deal from Hell because it includes destruction of market value, financial instability, impaired strategic position, organizational weakness, damaged reputation, and violation of ethical norms and laws. But the speed with which this deal put together in 48 hours has cratered shows how everything went wrong. On January 22 Thain resigned abruptly from Merrill-Bank of America amid a culture clash between the 2 organizations. After the deal closed on January 1, 2009, there has been an additional $20 billion in Treasury support, $118 billion of government backstops, a $15 billion loss at Merrill for 2008, a devastated share price for Bank of America falling 78% since the bank agreed to acquire Merrill on September 15. Bank of America stock closed at $33.74 on the Friday before the deal closed, on January 21, 2009 its share price was $6.68. Merrill was acquired at $29 share price, value which has disappeared. And Thain's and Kenneth Lewis 's reputations are tattered, with even more writedowns expected on the Merrill bad assets. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
GE's share price falls below $10. It has dropped 77% in 1 year from the 52 week high of $38.52 a share. Last time it hit this level was April 17, 1995. And its GE Capital unit faces problems. For years it generated half of GE's profits, now it had to sell its commercial paper to the government when markets dried up last fall. It has had to use a government bond guarantee program for bond issuance in recent months, even though it was at one time one of the largest corporate bond issuers. It has been unable to sell its $30 billion private label credit card operations and it appliances and light bulb units, as there are no buyers. As the stock drops GE has to consider cutting the dividend of $1.24 per share, to keep more cash to navigate this crisis. GE's Immelt continues to have his managers focus on the operations, and its business reviews that were conducted weekly are now conducted daily, and the monthly reviews are conducted weekly. But being proactive hasn't helped in this environment. ....

LyrArc Article Gist
How is it that GM would predict sales close to 16 million when no one else sees that happening. Is it just optimistic, even in the face of last years forecast which also stumbled badly with no improvement in the second half as expected. Instead GM closes the year 2007 with sales down 6% over 2006. And much worse numbers for Ford which saw 12% decline, and Chrysler a 3% decline. Chrysler continues to sell to rental fleets. Toyota's and Honda's sales grew by 3.1 and 2.8% respectively. But this year 2008 Toyota doesn't expect to do well with only a 1% increase. Nissan and Hyundai are in the same straits as the Big Three American makers in inventory of cars and sell to rental car fleets. In terms of inventory per point of market share Nissan has excess production capacity and more cars as inventory, about 39,000 per point of Nissan's market share similar to the Big Three. Toyota and Honda have 28,000 per point of their market share.

LyrArc Article Gist
ConAgra Foods buys RalCorp Holdings, the largest maker of food sold under supermarket and retailer brand names, for $4.95 billon, a 28% premium on RalCorp's share price.

LyrArc Article Gist
Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Evern though the Detroit carmakers initial quality as measured by J.D. Powers Initial Quality Survey is slightly higher than Japanese carmakers in pickup trucks, the Japanese carmakers still have a lead in the more popular cars and in crossovers. The Prius is made in a factory in Japan which ranks as one of the highest in quality. Quality is higher at plants in Japan for Toyota cars, and a bit lower here in the states for Toyota plants. Its on a par with Ford for the Toyota cars made in the USA. As the quality gaps shrinks to near zero between the quality of American and Japanese cars made in the USA, Toyota continues to maintain its edge in quality for its plants in Japan over both the Americans and the Germans. And the one carmaker that intends to surprise is Hyundai which surpasses Toyota, Honda, Ford and Chevy in quality and does this with a lower price. Consumers are noticing and making the switch, as Hyundai's market share is increasing. See Hyundai link. Here are some of the results. First the plants that produce the best quality, as measured by the J.D. Powers Initial Quality Survey. A survey of 80,900 cars between November 2008 and February 2009, for the first 90 days thses cars were driven, using the number of problems per 100 vehicles. All numbers refer to problems per 100 vehicles. Toyota plants in Japn that scored highest- Higashi-Fuji at 29 making Lexus SC and Toyota Corolla, Fuijimatsu at 30 making the Prius, Kyushu at 34 making the Lexus ES and Highlander. At the next level German plants, Bremen at 40 making the Mercedes Benz Classes- C, CLK, SL, and SLK. Daimler in E. London, S. Africa at 38, and BMW at 40 in Dinggolfing, Germany. And a cluster of Japanese and American plants in the USA that produce cars of comparable quality. Honda in E. Liberty Ohio at 41, making the Honda Civic, CRV and Element. GM at Oshawa, Ontario, at 42 making the Buick LaCrosse and Chevy Impala at 42. GM at Bowling Green, Kentucky at 43, and Toyota, Georgetwon, Kentucky making the Avalon and Camry at 43. What is notable from the last survey in this highly competitive market is the following. 1. Hyundai at 91 problems per 100 vehicles surpasses Honda at 95. Better quality at a lower price, so its no wonder Hyundai is gaining market share and is the new carmaker gaining a presence in the USA. 2. Toyota is at 101, Ford at 102, Chevy at 103, so the difference now in carmakers quality is perception, perception, perception. Its about lifestyle, what you like to be associated with and what you want your friends and neighbors to think about you in your choice of car, younger buyers who are the next generation that makes or breaks your business, the new trendy things among younger people, and design that appeals to them. 3. VW is at 112. So even though there is aggressive marketing and VW is picking up some market share with the Jetta, it still lags slightly in quality. 4. The American car makers still lack consistent quality. You have the Buick at 117, GMC at 116. Ford with Lincoln at 129. The Koreans with Kia at 112. 5. Chrysler is at the bottom of the list. Dodge at 134, Chevy at 136, Jeep at 137. THe lack of resources, changes in management and ownership, and the distractions of bankruptcy and dealership closings, and most of all dire lack of resources including the layoff of large parts of its engineering talent, all hurt. 6. GM sold Saab, Ford sold Land Rover and Jaguar. The neglect of Saab shows with Saab at 138, and Ford's distraction during the last 3 years shows with Jaguar at 134 and Land Rover at 150. also. 7. In summary Ford has done well overall, Toyota is coming up short in the USA and resting on its laurels, GM has a perception gap with younger buyers, Hyundai looks like a winner with both price and quality, and VW has work to do. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Intel's business model depends on making large investments in the latest technologies in chipmaking facilities. It continues its strength by ending 2014 with $14.1 billion in cash, after paying out $4 billion in dividends and buying back about $10 billion in stock. Profit margins improved during 2014, with net income up 39% to $3.7 billion or 74 cents a share, from 2013 level. Revenue is up 6% to $14.7 billion. 2015 outlook is for "mid single digit" growth in revenue with continued growth in PC's and servers. PC business was up 3% in the 4th quarter 2015, and the server business up 25% reflecting business investment in cloud computing. However mobile business continues to struggle with losses of $4.2 billion. Intel still depends a lot on PC and server chips for growth, with $49 billion of $55.8 billion in 2014 sales coming from PC's and server chips.

LyrArc Article Gist
Peugeot plans to raise 1 billion euros ($1.34 billion) in a share rights issue. GM plans to take a 7% stake in Peugeot, with an investment of $335 million.

LyrArc Article Gist
Violation of international law or tacit approval of drug states and suppression of the election results in Venezuela- position taken by Oxford's Dill and Germany's Steinmeier is itself controversial. Merz's is realistic. For those concerned about international law is it restricted to any particular period? Then the British policy in China supported by the other powers Japan, Russia, Germany and France to suppress the Boxer rebellion in 1901 and expand Treaty ports that forced opium on China in the period 1850 to the 1930's was not just a egregious violation, horrendous violation of basic human rights on a scale unimaginable in modern times. Much of the prosperity of the Netherlands and Britain, France was achieved through such policy in Asia. Yet Oxford's Dill and Steinmeier have chosen not to look at European history and the Empires of Europe in Asia and Africa for 300 years since 1700. By comparison Venezuelan action comes after the great patience of well meaning people, and the silence of elites in the US and Europe about massive migration encouraged by the regime in Venezuela of one third of its population about 9 million people to neighboring countries including the US, and suppression of free elections, complete mismanagement leading to 150% inflation destroying its economy.  It was not only these elites in the US and Europe that were responsible through their silence, but also the Bush and Obama wars in the Middle East which sapped the resources of the United States. Why is this happening when the Venezuelan people are the main benificiaries of the action taken by the US president to send in its military. All oil sales revenue will no longer go to a corrupt "drugs" state but be used to directly help the Venezuelan people achieve a better standard of living, bring down inflation  and invest in modernization, in these unusual circumstance a program run by Bessent at US Treasury. Those who dislike the unconventional but well meaning style of the US president and his occasional poor choice of words, find every opportunity for criticism even ignoring facts and common sense. Under Chavez and Maduro the Venezuelan economy was simply mismanaged to the point of being destroyed and an affluent country reduced to poverty and inflation so bad that one third or 9 milllion people left for neighboring countries. On this Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier have only this to say- it is somebody's else's problem. we will remain silent. Similarly on introducing nuclear weapons in the Middle East -where most nation states have intermittent wars and economic mismanagement for the last 50 years the artificial states from the Ottoman Empire of Syria and Iraq, Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Sudan every state impoverished by war and economic mismanagement - Dill at Oxford and Steinmeier in Germany also have only this to say- it is somebody else's problem not ours, we will remain silent. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The closing of GM's Holden manufacturing operation in Australia after GM's market share drops from 13% in 2008 to 9.9% in 2013. Ford also lost market share, as Hyundai took about 9% of the market. Toyota lost 5% of the market in that period.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. added 245,000 jobs in November. Unemployment rate drops from 6.9% to 6.7% as some Americans give up looking for work. The concern now is not the rate of job creation which is healthy but the drop outs from the workforce.  Concern arises from the long drawn out effects of the 2009 financial crisis and its effects which were seen over a decade. This report in NYT says the share of prime age Americans who were employed returned to the January 2008 level in 2019. And then the pandemic hits putting everything back again. This time if the lesson is learned about the long term damage to working families it is that this be tackled as a priority for the central bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, an the Treasury, and Council of Economic Advisors, under the leadership of president Biden. Fortunately both Yellen and the new proposed head of the Council are students of labor markets and have stated this is one of the lessons they have learned and will act on. As this report says the opiate crisis, the risks of addiction increased, and there were links to the long period people were without jobs. The longer a person is without a job the more likely he will become permanently unemployed. The hope now is that the vaccination effort could bring people back to work quickly as business and life resumes in 2021, with workers being hired back. The share of prime age Americans working in November is 76.5% compared to 80.5% in February, which means this has to go up by about 4 percentage points. The people who are not in the labor force today but still want a job are 2.2 million. It is this that needs to be the focus of the new administration, central bank, and Congress. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Michael Barnier leads the negotiating team for the EU as it begins negotiations with Britain on Brexit. He is a former foreign minister of France and former EU commissioner, giving him the necessary skills and experience. Yet as he meets with the Affairs of the European Committee in the German parliament, even Barnier is not clear how the negotiations will be conducted. Only that the issues relating to disentangling the closely interwoven economies of the EU and Britain relate to nationals of the EU and Britain in each others region, the common 20,000 legally binding regulations, and the price tag for Britain to pay of 60 billion euros. The leading German in the negotiating team is Gunther Oettinger, a former EU budget commissioner, and he tells Der Spiegel that the bill may be even higher than that number. The figure will be arrived at by taking into account the obligations of Britain and applying this to assets. The obligations include the money owed to the EU budget, share of medium term budget planning to 2020, share of pension payments to EU civil servants. The British take a different view and do not understand why they have to pay this amount when they are exiting. The British want to see their future relationship on trade and access to the EU markets discussed early, but the EU position is just the opposite, first exit negotiations to be completed by September 2018, then other discussions on trade. March 29, 2019 is the date set for Britain to be no longer a member of the EU. Yet even the sequence of issues has not been set and the sides could not be further apart than they are now. Each side looking at its situation domestically with elections in the EU in 2017, and May facing the added challenge of Scotland threatening to leave the UK. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
RIM's management change with new CEO Thorsten Heins is received positively by analysts as the co-CEO arrangement was not considered responsive enough to losses in market share- RIM's share in the smartphone market dropped below 10% in 2011. However the statement by Heins that there would be no "seismic" change at RIM was received with caution. One analyst pointed to the need for fresh thinking and thought it would have been better to bring in someone from the outside, though Heins only joined in 2007 and worked for 23 years at Siemens. The need for a new Chief Marketing Officer was pointed out.

LyrArc Article Gist
IKEA's plans announced in June 2012 for opening 25 stores in India with an investment of $1.9 billion. IKEA says it will meet the requirement that 30% of its products be sourced from small scale local industries, as it plans to increase its purchases in India from $450 million currently to $1 billion in a few years. It said the government should be flexible in its defining of small-enterprises. For India the entry of large scale retailers will help modernize its supplier base in a number of areas. India's current account deficit has increased to 4% of GDP making it important to send a strong positive signal to foreign investors.

LyrArc Article Gist
Weakness in the U.S. and Russian market for Adidas and criticism of CEO Herbert Hainer by shareholders. Adidas share price is down about 25% compared to Feb. 2014 even after a 11% increase in 2015. In the U.S. market Adidas has fallen behind Under Armour Inc. to No.3 spot in U.S. sports brands, and North American sales decreased 10% in euro terms for the first 9 months of 2014. The largest competitor Nike has seen a 30% increase in its share price in the last 12 months. Hainer is CEO since 2001, a period in which Adidas earnings quadrupled. Adidas is preparing a new 5 year strategy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Brian Dunn will be new CEO of Best Buy. He worked for 24 years in Best Buy most of them in Best Buy sales and in stores. He believes in Best Buy's blue shirted sales employees, who help custoners navigate difficult technology. He sees them as asingular advatage in the electronics struggle for market share with Walmart, and in keeping customers. His idea is to turn Best Buy shopping into a series of experiences, and using innovative practices of store employees. Best Buy stores sales fell 6.5% in December and 4th quarter estimates are for sales decline of 5-15%, with anlysts estimates of a 20% decline in earnings per share.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lehman sale may be arranged by Treasury and the Fed but fate of Lehman is uncertain.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Royal Mail is the oldest mail institution in the world. After a series of strikes a share of ownership is given to Czech billionaire Kretinsky 49 years, who built his company in European energy markets and pipleines to Russia. BBC Reports on this unusual step and what it means for one of Britain's oldest and sacred institutions.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Supreme Court by a vote of 7-2 struck down a California law that bans the sale of violent videogames to children. Writing the majority opinion Justice Scalia said "even when children are the object the constitutional limits of governmental action apply." Breyer dissented by saying that it made no sense to not allow a child to see a nude picture woman under obscenity laws and yet allow the child to see violent acts against women. Clarence Thomas was the other justice in the dissent. Justices Anthony Kennedy, Ruth Ginsberg, Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor supported the decision to allow violent videogames to be sold to children. Justice Alito supported the decision but expressed serious reservations about the breadth of the majority's opinion saying- " the Court is far too quick to dismiss the possibility that the experience of playing videogames (and the effects on minors of playing violent videogames) may be very different from anything we have seen before."

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ report shows how a record 4.4 million American workers resigned from their jobs in September 2021 alone. WSJ shows map of US with the states where this is happening marked with "I Quit." States with the largest quit rates have large share of employment  in food, restaurant, hotel and entertainment industries- Hawaii, Montana, Utah, Oregon, Colorado, New Hampshire, Louisiana. In the northeastern states the education sector which accounts for a larger share of employment the quit rate has risen at the fastest pace since January as shown in the Labor Department numbers. For years wages, benefits and working conditions in the food, restaurant, grocery store, hotel and entertainment industries, supply chain logistics, lagged behind, exacerbating inequality and widening the income gaps between working class Americans and the professional and other classes. Increases in minimum wages lagged behind the cost of raising families, rent and grocery bills. Professions such as nursing, children's education, critical to the nation's health were also left behind in wage increases as the tech boom rewarded different sectors in outrageous ways worsening the social divide and creating pools of income scarcity and income abundance in indiscriminate ways. The pandemic is changing all this. Workers in states with higher proportion of workers in these sectors of the economy are saying "I Quit," as they seek better opportunities elsewhere and better working conditions. The checks to working class Americans in 2020-2021 as aid for the pandemic, the child credits, investments in affordable housing, child care, early childhood education, and other aid in the Biden Families and Workers plan are giving workers for the first time in decades the right to choose better working conditions and incomes over worse working conditions and incomes that were set without regard to their role and contribution to the welfare of the whole country and people.  After the lockdowns in the northeastern states, States such as New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,  with higher vaccination rates and rebound in the economy are seeing higher job openings. This is making it possible for workers in the northeastern US to quit jobs in educational services and other sectors  for better paying jobs, better working conditions, remote work options, and improved work-life balance. ...