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Bill Keller of the New York Times, reflects on his experience in Moscow during the fall of communism, and the Russian youth then and their children in the protest marches in Moscow today. He sees a new generation with different expectations, not limited by the past in what they think is possible, should be and is normal.

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OPEC's fears of decline in demand in 2007 from global slowdown. Efforts to stem price decline but no concerted action.

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With the huge margins that American refiners are making upto $30 a barrel, OPEC does not see itself as behind the surge in oil prices at the gasoline pump in the US and sees less pressure on itself to respond .

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Joe Nocera describes his personal situation which also reflects the situation of the average investor in his 401(K) for retirement - inexperience in handling the boom-bust cycles in the market and loss of savings, especially in the last two decades with sharp swings in the market. The Employee Benefit Research Institute statistics on savings of the average American are striking, dismal is the right word- only 22% of workers 55 or older have more than $250,000 set aside for retirement, and 60% have less than $100,000 in a retirement account. The average savings of an American near retirement are $100,000.

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After the failed Unocal Corp. bid in 2005, China's policy has shifted to taking minority stakes, not taking an active role, and keeping Chinese managers at a distance from U.S. advanced technology. The result is a surge in investment in the U.S. and Canadian energy industry with $17 billion invested since 2010, according to Dealogic. By buying a small stake in a company Chinese government advisors see the opportunity to to get an entry into new markets and gain the exerience and knowledge needed to keep up with new drilling techniques. This comes at a time when China expects to become the world's largest oil consuming country because of the surging use of automobiles in the country, according to the International Energy Agency. Natural gas consumption doubled in China between 2006 and 2010 according to the BP Statistical Review.

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The auction of the Libra ultra-deep water oil field in the waters off Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Shell, Total and two Chinese companies took part in the auction. Libra is estimated to hold about 12 billion barrels of oil and combined with the other fields in the newly discovered area has about 50 billion barrels of oil. Brazil's laws passed after the discoveries offshore were made in 2006 give Petrobras a critical role in development of the oil fields. A new company Petrasal was created to oversee the new oil fields. The winning bidder in this auction is required to pay the government $7 billion in an upfront payment and source much of the equipment inside Brazil. New investments are required in education, infrastructure and supporting public services after nationwide street protests, making oil field development and new revenues a priority for the government of Dilma Rousseff and the Workers Party that runs the government.

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The challenges facing Nokia as it has to come up with a full range of Lumia model smartphones at different price points to appeal to customers in the U.S. and emerging markets. Increasing price competition at the low end in emerging markets and competition with the Apple iPhone and Android based phones at the upper end.

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Von Mark Schieritz of Germany's Zeit Online describes the changes underway following the election campaigns in the U.S., and France, and the Brexit vote in Britain, all signalling the discontent of people left behind by the tech, capitalism, trade and globalization changes of the last two decades. The appeal of one time fringe politicians using racist slogans and divisive rhetoric to appeal to those left behind, appealing to people lacking intergenerational mobility, and without much hope for a better future, is a serious concern. People who are gullible enough, lack college education, or racially isolated so that they are not likely to look carefully at what is being offered in terms of programs and change of competing parties, and likely to overlook the hard and difficult road for corrective course of action, because of anger and pentup fears. Schieritz cites as part of this change the unanimously approved conclusion in its final declaration at the G-20 meeting in Chengdu, China- "The benefits of growth need to be shared more broadly within and among countries to promote inclusiveness." Yet this can be a sort of "too little, too late."  Bankers who are cited in an email going around Wall Street lack credibility with groups on Main Street, to people adversely affected by tech, trade and globalization changes that have been persistently ignored for over a decade, close to two decades. More convincing is the tone of Theresa May, the British prime minister's first statement outside 10 Downing Street- who spoke of the "burning injustices" and her determination to make this a top priority of her government. Still more convincing are the programs to invest $275 billion over 10 years in infrastructure put forward by the leading candidate in the U.S. presidential election of 2016, to provide easier access to public universities and colleges to those left behind, as a sure way to create new jobs and address intergenerational mobility. In fact every leading candidate had made the loss of upward mobility their central plank already in 2015, long before Trump and Sanders started their campaign. The real hope lies in western leaders Merkel, May, and Clinton, all keenly aware students of changes, all women by the way who have sensed the injustice and have the ability to come up with something new and promising for the future, after learning the lessons of the past. ...

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Greece defaulted on a loan payment to the IMF for 1.55 billion euros ($1.73 billion) on June 30, 2015.

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The Hulme Company mail order catalog business in Minnesota may not be representative of small business, considering the errors and the scale of the debt taken on. But even if a small fraction of this debt taking tendency is representative of small business, it means that small business will not generate jobs as it did in the past. Small business will actually layoff people. And small business will not be able to provide the bounce the economy will need in years to come. The following is an an anaysis of this venture. The owners of this small business Bidwell and Ms. Guarino bought a luxury goods maker that was losing money for $600,000. Their business was to sell $500 garment bags and $1200 duffel bags. The experience of Bidwell was with Target, Tonka Toys and a cigarette distributor. Ms Guarino had a $130,000 job with a magazine publisher, running regional magazines like Minnesota Parent, which she quit. She had some experience as a handbag designer in California before that. They had never seen hard times, no, they had only seen good times. And were willing to spend heavily on the business like the $600,000 for a business, Hulme Company, that lost $150,000 on sales of $450,000 making duck hunting gear, the business they bought in 2003. All this for a tiny factory employing 3 seamstresses, and with no brand name for luxury goods like leather duffels. Their lender's experience- Kassim who founded Maple Bank in Champlin, Minnesota, considered it pretty typical of small business in those days to do everything on debt and loaned $550,000 over 5 years. So the lender was in for the ride. Another bank Stephens bank loaned on SBA approved loans which were later cut off. Guarino had no experience in this business, and simply relied on Bidwell's experience. The borrowing went on and on from friends, taking in debt with total lack of understanding of what debt means, from their daughter, the entire $50,000 savings of Bidwell's wife, and finally with banks refusing to lend after having friends put up their CD's and collateral on loans. Debt to equity ratio gets to 5 to 1. Second mortgages on the house getting Bidwell and extra $130,000. Even in the best year 2006 sales at $1.4 million, and earnings before taxes and other items at $325,000, not enough to pay the interest and other payments on loans that later totaled $2 million by year end 2007. $500,000 from friends and family including $20,000 from his daughter or two thirds of their savings. 600,000 catalogs went out in 2007. With the Hulme Company behind on payments in 2008, the catalogs mailed in 2008 dropped to 175,000. It is a very capital intensive business from the standpoint of catalog cost. $1 million in inventory at year end 2007, or two thirds of sales of $1.5 million in 2007, was a sign of how expansion preceded even getting the financing in place, and going out into the dark thinking sales wil materialize. So even in the best year 2006 the business was not viable, and would have collapsed even without the financial and credit conditions of 2008, ruining the owners in the process. By 2008 it led to the usual things in this kind of business failure, Bidwell's divorce, loss of his home as he falls behind on mortgage payments, Guarino's loss of job and friends whom she borrowed from, and both deeply in debt. Evaluation of the failure is as follows. Seamstresses and the small factory space could be obtained for a fraction of the cost in an emerging market country, even in an eastern European country, and no cost needed to be incurred for the purchase of Hulme Company or for sending out catalogs. Only travel expenses to meet high end retailers who might carry this merchandise, and go to the country where the plant was setup. Sales would come first, and expansion to meet sales very carefully done so that the plant could be downscaled if sales dropped. Even then scores of small luxury goods makers in China or other emerging market countries could put the owners out of business. The lesson if you can't watch costs, if you don't understand what debt means, then you don't pass the most basic of tests. You cannot run business on savings, home equity or credit card loans, or business loans with personal guarantees. Costs tend to just run up to the money one has artificially created. It will ruin you. If you don't have experience with the business and the product area, or can't put together a group of people with the experience to guide you on the pitfalls and what to watch for, you don't pass the next basic test. Only then does one get to the other tests about whether there is a market, the price and value of the offering and so on. This is before the current economic crisis. Now all these tests become more important than ever, or it will kill you and quickly. One has to be paranoid and very careful after 2008. Stephens Bank loaned money on SBA loans ...

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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Vannis Varoufakis, Greece's feisty finance minister in the debt negotiations with the IMF and the EU, dispels the notion that the Argentina default is an example for Greece to follow, both in his blog and talking to James Stewart of the NYT. He says in his blog, that this is "profoundly wrong." Greece's economy is dependent on the euro, its banks and private sector borrowings tied to the euro, and going back to the drachma would be harder than Argentina removing the peg to the dollar and devaluing sharply in 2001. Even then half of the purchasing power was gone in conversion from dollar denominated deposits to pesos. In December 2001 Argentina defaulted on $93 billion in debt, sharply devalued the peso, resulting in a economic depression, riots and demonstrations. The economy stabilized in 2002, and paid back debt owed to the IMF by 2006, only because of export demand for Argentina's main products of soya beans, and corn, soya oil with high demand from China and Brazil. Greece's exports of cotton and fish cannot provide the basis for such a recovery, says Varoufakis. Arturo Porzecanski at American University, and Daniel Gros, Director of the Center for European Policy Studies have written 2 separate papers on Greece following the Argentine example, and agree with this conclusion....

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Trust bank is rescued with a $530 million injection by Russia's central bank in Dec. 2014. The bank was taken over by the Deposit Insurance Agency which guaranteed the deposits of customers. As Russia raises interests by 17%, the ruble stabilizes with a 5% gain on Dec. 22, 2014. Alexei Kudrin, former finance minister and the architect of Russia's improved finances during Putin's previous terms in office, told a news conference that Russia now faces a full fledged economic crisis that will be painful in 2015. He expects a drop of 40% in imports, inflation at 12 to 15%, and decline in living standards. He also said Russia's credit rating could fall to junk status making it difficult to obtain financing. Kudrin was critical of the way the Russian government handled the crisis, saying action was slow and the government did not act as one team. He called for improved relations with western partners- "For a way out of the crisis, it is of high importance to regulate relations with our foreign partners- first of all with Europe, the U.S. and other partners."...

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Problems Russia faces in gaining entry into the WTO. This includes high import tariffs in Russia, arbitrary interpretation of rules, the customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, and corruption. Russia is the only major economy that is not part of the WTO. China was admitted in 2001. The WTO rules limit import tariffs and provides a legal system of dispute resolution for trade disputes. According to Business Europe, Russia increased tariffs for a range of factory products after the 2008 crisis. These tariffs alone cost EU companies $820 million a year. Russia's deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov, says that without WTO access modernization and innovation for Russia will be very difficult. Companies like Boeing would be big winners with WTO entry for Russia. Tariffs on wide-body aircraft would then drop from 20% to 7.5%, and Russia expects to buy 1,000 new commercial aircraft in the next 20 years.

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Russian president Putin talks to journalists at his year end news conference in Dec. 2015. He has sharp words for Turkey, saying Russia's advanced air defence system S-400 is now in place to prevent any attacks on Russian war planes over Syria. And says the costs of the bombing campaign in Syria comes out of the Defense Ministry's training budget. Putin calls Donald trump "a very bright and talented man." He tells Russians that the Russian economy was coming back after a sharp recession. He points to Russian life expectancy at 71 as one achievement of this period, as the government considers raising the retirement age to conserve resources.