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Election expert Karl Rove from the Republican Party goes over the math for the nomination for upcoming Republican primaries in New York, followed by primaries in Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. He says the anti-Trump movement would still be in the lead at the end of these primaries. His figures are that Trump stands at 743 delegates on April 7, 2016, citing the Associated Press, and the non-Trump delegates at 897, ahead by 154 delegates. In New York primary of April 19 only 14 of the state's 95 delegates go to the winner, the rest are given three for each of 27 congressional districts. two to the winner and one for the second place finisher as long as the winner is less than 50% and the second place candidate has 20%. Delaware has 16 winner take all delegates, Connecticut and Maryland have 28 and 38 winner take all by congressional district, Rhode Island 19 proportionally. Interestingly Pennsylvania is cited by Rove as having only 14 statewide winner take all delegates, with 54 officially unbound congressional district delegates, contrary to popular impression that it is winner take all state wide. The elections in South and North Dakota, and Nebraska, give Cruz some of the delegate offset to control the gap in delegates between him and Trump created in the northeastern states. A factor in the race is also the change in the Cruz campaign made for Wisconsin where Cruz was able to win by 14 percentage points by expanding his message to Jobs, Opportunity and Growth from the social conservatism message that did not counter the Trump message to conservative and working class voters on the economy and trade. Another factor is women's vote trending away from Trump. ...

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Millenials are moving away from political parties to look at individual candidates in 2014. Attitudes are changing moving away from gender politics. A Pew Research Center survey of March 2014 shows 50% of millenials consider themselves political independents. And 31% believe there is not much difference between Democrats and Republicans.

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Over 50% of respondents in the 2012 Gallup poll view Japan as the U.S.'s most important partner in Asia, compared to 39% for China. The shift in how Americans view China is pronounced in the last 3 years. In 2010 the two countries were tied 44%-44%. In 2011 China was 39% to Japan's 31%. In 2011 India, S. Korea and Australia were added to the poll as partners. Among "opinion leaders" such as business executives, government officials, academics and journalists, China gets 54% to Japan's 40%. The poll is conducted by Gallup for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan since the 1960's. The analysis shows that respondents picked China for economic reasons not for political reasons. A survey of the general population shows 84% view Japan as a dependable ally, up 2% froom 2011, with similiar trend for opinion leaders.

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Karl Case, co-author with Shiller, of the Case-Shiller housing index, describes what the American dream of owning a house was always all about- having a safe long-term investment with the happiness gained from ownership of one's own home. It was never really meant to become a way to pay bills, and enjoy an artificially high standard of living based on artificially high speculative returns of 30% a year. Based on the authentic verson of this dream, it is still alive, says Case. Buying a house today costs less because of lower interest rates, the costs of a house are lower, and it provides a return in the form of rent that the owner doesn't have to pay for the home. Case has not factored in unemployment and job uncertainty, especially with the worsening economic outlook in 2011. This may still depress housing markets.

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Brazil's Senate passes a 20 year spending cap to be reviewed every 10 years put forward by interim president Michel Temer. After years of increased spending and higher deficits, the action is intended to control government spending. It also means reversing some of the spending on healthcare and social programs of the Workers Party of Rousseff and Da Silva. After a long period of Workers party rule with higher spending, the drop in commodity prices and declining growth in China led to stalling growth in a commodities (metals and grain) dependent Brazilian economy. The spending cap passed the Senate 53 to 16. President Temer is  unpopular and seen as part of the same government and elite as Rousseff that led to the corruption scandals- recent polls show 63% of Brazilian people want him to resign and only 10% saying he is doing a good job. A Datafolha poll shows 60% oppose the spending cap. After the impeachment of president Rousseff in the corruption scandal, vice president Temer assumed the presidency till 2018. Brazil's Workers Party was popular during the da Silva years as it expanded spending on social programs- supported by a growing economy with commodities exports to China and high prices- only to see a slumping economy and falling popularity under successor Rousseff as the boom ended. In Argentina a similar process unfolded with higher spending on social programs and growing popularity during the Kirchner presidency- with commodities exports of grains to China- followed by declining popularity as the economy entered a difficult phase with a fall in the value of the peso, and the election of a new president Mauricio Macri.   ...

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Ruffenach gives an excellent account of how many people describe their expectations and how it actually turned out in retirement, the good and the bad. He cites numerous examples to give as broad based a picture as possible. Health and active life, passions and interests, loss of self esteem in work for some and finding substitute interests, taking risks to try something new and the rewards. More people describe positive experiences in those surveyed. Health is the main concern for 41% in actual retirement, children and other things are all less than 10%. Travel should be planned early as it becomes harder as the years go by and one gets older. It is not as difficult as people think to make new friends in retirement, and this active social life with new friends can play a positive part in spending time. In addition there is the opportunity in retirement to take things slowly and leisurely, and spend time more on oneself and one's own interests.

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Working America, an arm of the U.S. trade union the AFL-CIO, conducted conversations with 350,000 voters in 17 U.S. states. Here a representative of Working America, says the overwhelming response to the question "does it make a difference whether Democrats or Republicans are in power for my well being," is reflected in one of the responses- "does it even matter?"

The suggested approach here is for Democrats in particular who have represented working class voters in the past, to start with a fresh approach by creating new conversations with working class Americans.

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Krugman looks at the economies of indusrialized countries in 2014-2015. He points to the errors made by the Riksbank in Sweden to increase interest rates prematurely when a recovery was not on firm ground, ignoring the advice of deputy governor Lars Svensson. Sweden now faces the prospect of little growth and deflationary tendencies. He compares the decision of the ECB to raise rates in 2011 with Japan's decision to prematurely raise rates. The austerity policies in the EU driven by Germany and the lack of political consensus in the U.S., are faulted for making the situation worse when compared to Japan's poor handling of the situation. He says fiscal policy did not do enough in Japan to create growth, in the EU he says austerity policies were actually destructive of growth.

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For the first time the U.S. focuses on the huge trade deficit with China in a serious way. The trade negotiating team led by Robert Lighthizer has set forth its negotiating terms.  1. China must reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. by $100 billion in the first 12 months. In the next 12 months it must reduce its deficit by another $100 billion. In 2 years the trade deficit the U.S. has with China must come down by $200 billion. The issue is no longer just the tariffs on steel, it is about the core issue of balance in  trade. 2. The U.S. says subsidies to state industries in the "Made in China 2025" program must stop. Here the focus is on gaining an unfair technological advantage with a combination of U.S. technology imports and subsidies to state advanced manufacturing industries to erode over time the U.S. technological lead.  3.  China is expected to cut its tariffs by about two thirds on imported products so that the tariffs match that of the U.S. This is the first serious negotiation the U.S. has conducted with China on the core issue of the trade surplus which is growing with a stronger dollar not declining. The surplus approaches $1 billion each day for about $365 billion a year, unsustainable from any perspective. The vital issue of the erosion of the U.S. technological advantage under the Made in China 2025 has turned this issue into one in which the U.S. is unlikely to back down. Especially now that Mr. Lighthizer is leading the  negotiations and has the confidence of the president of the U.S. Lighthizer is a veteran of negotiations from an earlier period -under the Reagan administration in a similar situation with another national competitor- then it was the Japanese. A relentless negotiator as the U.S. seeks to reverse a trade imbalance of stupendous proportions neglected by previous administrations.           ...

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Otis Elevator is moving a plant based in Nogales, Mexico, back to the U.S. This plant was moved to Mexico in 1998 for cost reasons. Now Otis CEO, Didier Michaud-Daniel, says producing at a new South Carolina plant will cost less than Mexico. Logistics and freight costs are 17.3% less in the U.S. than Mexico, and an additional 20% in savings come from "efficiencies" gained by having all its white collar workers associated with elevator design and production. Most companies that manufacture in China and Mexico keep their design and engineering jobs in the the U.S. It is not clear to what extent American companies have considered all the costs of separating design and engineering from manufacturing, including the opportunities for close cooperation possible in one location that are lost when everything is so spread out. At Otis toolmakers in Dallas and engineers and designers located in Indiana and Arizona traveled to the Nogales, Mexico plant. This can be especially important when as in Otis's case the new plant in Florence, South Carolina, plans the launch of a new generation of elevator designs. In this case there is an added benefit by making it easier for customers to visit the plant and look at the product. The new plant will have more automation and use fewer workers on the factory floor. The new factory will employ 360 workers including white collar workers, the same as the Nogales, Mexico, plant with a lower number of factory floor workers. ...

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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...