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The U.S. and China sign Phase 1 of the trade agreement in a sign of reduction of trade tensions between the two countries. Difficult issues of state subsidies under China's state enterprise model of development, and technological competition were put off for the future. China made the deal possible by agreeing to double its purchases of agricultural products, and offering to purchase about $200 billion in American goods and services over the next two years. This gives relief to farmers, a key part of Mr.Trump's support base. This also helps achieve a key Trump and U.S. goal of cutting the U.S. trade deficit with China quickly, just as happened decades ago with Japan.  See the related article and link on how for the first time in decades China's trade surplus with the U.S. is now set on a path for permanent decline. It dropped significantly in 2019 by 12.5% even though China's imports from the U.S. dropped by 21%, based on Chinese customs data released for 2019. With China increasing these imports significantly and the U.S. holding on to tariffs of 25% on $250 billon of China's exports to the U.S. which are outside the Phase 1 agreement, the downward course is set for the next few years for correction of a dangerous trade imbalance. That imbalance was allowed to develop over successive Republican and Democratic administrations. China already has the European Union as its first leading trading partner and south east Asia as its second. China plans to not be so closely intertwined with the U.S. in trade, and yet preserve its state sponsored development model and drive to compete in technology. China's increased purchases from the U.S. of $200 billon are broken down in terms of farm products- $32 billion, manufactured goods- $80 billion, energy products- $50 billion, services $35 billion. In effect the U.S. gets its goal of cutting the unsustainable China trade surplus quickly and with certainty in 3-5 years. China uses the period to transition for less trade linkage with the U.S. yet preserving its state sponsored model of development and drive for technological advancement.   ...

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The German French plan for 500 billion euro of outright aid as non repayable subsidies is supported fully by Merkel as she calls for massive amounts of aid to help the EU recover from th pandemic. Asd the pandemic was exceptional so must the aid be exceptional says Merkel.  The Bavarian state premier Soder supports it, so does the FDP's Lindner.  This report looks at why Merkel has pushed forward with this plan after supporting a decade of austerity in Europe following the Greek loan bailouts. Merkel sees aid that is repayable worsening the debt ratios of countries like Italy to the point that this would be stones not bread. This would strangle Italy's and other economies such as Spain and Portugal. It is not in Germany's interest, it is best to make partners. Only Austria, Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark oppose this. Yet this is shortsighted. Most of these northern tier countries have pursued their own self oriented interests not that of a European community of nations in crisis. ...

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Britain's Keely Hodgkinson, 800 metres gold medalist at Paris, talks about the pressure building up, her experience after an injury, the slump and her recovery in 2025. After a difficult period and an injury while going to London for her MBE, she says she is chilling, and has gained something from the experience to let go off the pressure and just be herself.

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Italian cooking in Italy- do's and don'ts for good Italian cooking. Food, agriculture around food is big in Italy. It adds up to $228 billion with huge export potential. Packaged product including pasta at $100 billion and about $136 billion for product consumed in restaurants and coffee shops. UNESCO has given its label to Italy as a top culinary place in the world.

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Economists estimate a loss of 0.5% to 1% in GDP from the move to cancel large denomination rupee notes by the Modi government to stem corruption. Forecasted growth was at 7.6%. The real estate sector where most deals are in cash and black money is most hit. At the same time more deposits are being made of old currency notes, increasing the money banks have to lend. The government says the rural sector is not affected as badly as critics suggest- with 6.3% increase in sowing of winter crops.

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Tightening of western sanctions on Russian oil supplies and Russian response of threats for further choking of oil supplies, and the increasing uncertainty, are leading to oil prices above $100 a barrel in November 2022. 

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A 1500 metres women runner who chooses to stay at her farm in Vermont than stay in Boston with New Balance running team to practice. She reflects on her pregnancy and having a child while competing in the US.

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Mead on Greenland and DJT at Davos- he says in WSJ that Europe and US have a lot in common. From the way the media handled it it played right into Mette Frederiksen of Denmark's effort to portray the US in a colonial light when the colonial power on record is Denmark which followed the British, the Dutch and the Spanish in setting up colonial empires, but just failed to compete and sold off its colonies one by one to the US or traded it for territory. Denmark has along dispute with Germany on Schlewig-Holstein. Germany's Merz avoided the rhetoric and his foreign minister Wadephul emphasized importance of Greenland for security of Europe and indirectly of the eastern seaboard of the US. Germany and Italy meet Feb 12 and both coungries will work with the US. Britain's Starmer joined the Nordic countries in protest with its own colonial record providing some of the darkest hours for China during the Opium Wars. Farage and Conservatives see Greenland would be best in US control for US and European security. This means much of Europe is still with the US on the Greenland issue though misrepresentations of the US position by Denmark and many Democrats continue because of a certain inveterate opposition to DJT, with no mention of Admiral Robert Peary's discoveries in north of Greenland in the 1890's (for US Navy), and Democrat Harry Truman's offer of $100 million for Greenland in 1947, going back to Secretary of State Seward's effort to add Greenland to the Alaska Purchase in 1867. ...

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West Bengal elections in April-May 2026- the elections come after Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal, nearby countries, all changed governments following protests about corrupt governance, mismanangement of the economy. Inside India there is a profound change that is not even covered in the  established media such as the BBC and DW.com. The states of Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar, in the northeastern part of India had landslides in voting for the ruling BJP party and NDA alliance for Clean government and Modernization of the economy. A similar vote took place also with a landslide for Clean Governance and Modernization in the state of Maharashtra in the western part of India with the commercial hub of Mumbai (Bombay). In the southern part of India in Kerala, the capital city local government in Thiruvananthapuram has also shifted to this Clean Governance and Modernization under the BJP government that governs at the federal level in New Delhi. India is like China and Japan before it, going through massive change to modernize the country with new infrastructure building and rapid development including investments in hospitals, universities and airports, trade logistics, factories for industrial production. The magnitude of the change is reflected inthe population of most of these states being close to 100 million in each state West Bengal(105 million), Maharashtra(130 million), Bihar (133 million), almost the whole population of the US in just 3 of the many states- witnessing huge changes that could mean 20-25% growth rate a year n the next couple of years to 2030 doubling their GDP. ...

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Michael Barr was appointed in July 2022 to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors by president Biden, and made the vice chair of financial supervision. As a legal scholar at the University of Michigan with a number of books published on the plight of black Americans after the financial crisis of 2008, he is familiar with the problems created by banks from a laissez fairre approach to regulation.  Barr helped write the rules for the legislation on supervision of banks after the financial crisis of 2008 that hurt worker and families, and minorities particularly in places like Detroit. He is now responsible for correcting the problems created by the Trump legislation that exempted banks under $250 billion from this regulation. Barr will bring this down to $100 billion, the original 2008 legislation has a threshold of $50 billion for banks to be subject to oversight by the central bank and stress testing. In 2018 Barr said about Trump's legislation to limit regulatory oversight in an op-ed in American Banker- "The rules (after 2008) were not meant to apply only to the largest handful of systemically important firms. It is the very antithesis of macro-prudential supervision to focus only on the largest handful of financial firms and to ignore risks elsewhere in the system." ...

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Zweig points out that P/E multiples fall quickly in the midst of higher uncertainty. Benjamin Graham's "cyclically adjusted" P/E refined by Yale economist Robert Shiller smooths out the top and bottoms of the market by averaging the past 10 years of earnings and incorporating effects of inflation. This "cyclically adjusted" P/E for the U.S. market for the last 50 years is 19.5. The P/E for the market when the S&P 500 was at 1325 in late July 2011 was 22.9, and at the low in the first week of August 2011 of 1167 was 20.2. With the higher uncertainty- as for instance Bank of New York Mellon charging clients to hold cash- the P/E multiples are in a different territory. The P/E dropped to 13.3 in March 2009 after the financial crisis of 2008. Larger macroeconomic trends and uncertainty may have yet to play out and not registered fully in the market indexes. Jack Hough throws light on this from a different angle in the Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2011 comparing stagnant wages and its relationship with corporate earnings....

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The low or zero carbon footprint goal of electric cars is achieved only by use of 100% renewable energy.

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NYT reporters Lyman and Eddy show how the city of Weimar in Germany is coping with the arrival of about 900 refugees, and how well the integration efforts are working.

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Michael Atherton calls Jasprit Bumrah "absolutely fantastic" for his bowling in the First Cricket Test vs Australia at Perth 2024. After being bowled out for 150 rus in the first innings India went on to score over 500 runs in the second innings to beat Australia by 295 runs. The turnaround was amazing.

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As daily coronavirus cases hit 5000 in Germany Merkel warns of exponential growth and restrictions are imposed on public gatherings.

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After losing 100 ships in the Irish Sea in 1859 to storms Britain setup the Shipping Forecast in 1861 under Admiral FitzRoy. This was the first storm warning system on which British ships depended for the next 100 years and most of the period Britain ruled the high seas. In 1925 the first long wave transmission of Weather Shipping went out from the Air Ministry in London. Millions depended on the forecast. For eons says Grace Linden in NYT there was nothing but stars and estuaries, the wind and the shore. The old supply chain of the Industrial Revolution in Britain was based on shipping, and on the shipping forecast, and too the realms of exploration all the way to the new continent of Australia, so a national treasure.

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A second estimate by the OECD increases the revenues generated from the global minimum tax of 15% on corporations by as much as $150 billion. The original estimate was of $150 billion, so the real amount generate could be twice that. It means it will help countries build the infrastructure they need to revive their economies.The international tax agreement of 2021 sets the rate based on where companies sell to consumers rather than where they are based. It is the most important tax agreement in a century with 137 countries participating. 

The original estimate estimated revenues to be $150 billion- it raised this to $200 billion. It sees $200 billion in existing revenues that will be reallocated up from $125 billion. Taxing rights will generate additional $36 billion.

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Bernd Riegert in the DW.com expresses the view that the sooner that the "obstinate" Britons invoke Article 50 and start negotiations the better, so that a lot of uncertainty for the European Union can be removed. After the High Court ruling that parliament has to approve Brexit, it says that it is strange that a hairdresser and an investment manager should be the ones taking it to the High Court, but that nothing is strange in the Brexit saga anymore. The political turbulence as Ms.May mulls over calling another election is not in the European Union's interest, Riegert says, as this causes more uncertainty for the European Union that it does not need at this time.

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Germany's furlough scheme is called Kurzarbeit. About 10.1 million workers are signed up for the scheme with about 5.6 million actually using it because they are working shorter hours than normal. Under the scheme about 60% of workers earnings are normally replaced with government aid with contributions from companies. For the pandemic the German government increased benefits to cover 70%-80% of lost earnings if a worker has lost over 50% of working hours. It cost about 9 billion euros and payments are made by the German Employment Agency. This scheme is being extended from the initial 12 month period to 24 months. A similar scheme in Britain that ends in October covered 80% of earnings for workers lost earnings up to 2500 pounds a month, at a cost of 35 million pounds up to August for 9.5 million employees at the peak. The British scheme is not being renewed. The U.S. has its own program of payments and unemployment insurance, yet unemployment is higher in the U.S. In Germany it was 6.3% in July, a moderate increase.  ...

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THe Fed is pumping new money into the financial system. $800 billion of new money over the past seven months, since September 2008. Last week it said another trillion dollars or more could be added int he months ahead. The way this works is the Fed purchases securities or other assets from securities dealers in exchangefor electronic credits that amount to cash and are deposited in banks. These cash credits known as bank reserves have jumped from $3 billion in August to $776 billion by mid March 2009. This week it said it would buy $1.25 trillion of mortgage backed securtities backed by Faniie and Freddie, and $200 billion in debt issued by these firms. And also buy upto $300 billion of longterm debt issued by the US Treasury. THe idea is to drive down longterm interest rates. All the while the Fed is not printing money in the old fashioned way- Federal Reserve notes also called dollars only increased to $862 billion from $793 billion. Still it is increasing the banks reserves in this way. And these mountains of cash in reserves are sitting in the banks as there is not much lending, and consumers are reluctant to borrow and to spend, and with all that unused production capacity there is little chance of inflation. When the economy recovers the Fed hopes, if all works out as planned, to pull that extra money out of the system and pushing interest rates higher before inflation settles into the system....

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Childcare cost are up much higher than the inflation rate. Costs of care for two children in summer can go up to $2500 a month in Minnesota and other parts of the country more than the cost of the home mortgage.

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President Biden talks to victims of the fires and makes an aerial tour with the Governor. He looks at the damage in this part of Hawaii. 800 people are still missing after a search of the area affected by the fire.

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The Biden administration is targeting 6000 "temporarily unavailable" charging stations for replacement as part of its effort to ensure EV drivers do not have difficulty when going into charging stations. $100 million is being allocated for this effort.