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U.S. president Trump stands by president Putin as he denies Russian involvement in the U.S. presidential election of 2018. This contradicts the conclusions reached by U.S. intelligence agencies. Resulting in criticism from Republicans in his own party.

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Chuck Hagel answers questions in the U.S. Senate about his views on the Iraq and Afghanistan surge, on sanctions against Iran, and nuclear disarmament. Hagel says the U.S. must engage not retreat in the world, and discussed his world view without getting drawn into details about policy issues. He faces a difficult nomination for U.S. Defense Secretary with skepticism from Republicans. Hagel opposed both surges and says the right approach is bilateral disarmament for nuclear weapons.

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US president Biden will give his farewell address on Jan 15 at 8 pm Eastern Time. It marks a vital point in a five decade career of public service, unprecedented in US history. Its impact is huge coming at the time of Covid pandemic and at a turning point in rebuilding America's infrastructure. What Biden missed was that migration needed to be brought under control taking immediate action as a top priority in 2021, not getting blindsided by the fact that Republicans were using strong language and the issue had become politicized. Biden did this for tariffs with China in 2020 keeping most of the DJT tariffs, he could have done the same keeping the basic border policies of the DJT administration and negotiating with Republicans in 2021 when he was in a good position to have legislation passed. Which he did late by Feb 2024 with Senator Lankford and Republicans but failed to get it through in the primary election season, by then too late. ...

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Under the McConnell-Biden fiscal cliff deal of Jan. 1, 2013, $620 billion is raised for deficit reduction over 10 years. This is made up of $395 billion from raising the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6% from 35% for the top 1% of filers who make $450,000 for couples or 400,000 for singles. Raising the top rate on capital gains and dividends to 20% from 15% raises $55 billion. Limiting the personal exemption and itemized deductions on incomes over $250,000 is a key component as it raises $150 billion. This reduction of tax expenditures was recommended by Simpson-Bowles deficit commission and Republican advisor Martin Feldstein, with more money raised under their proposals than the current proposal which follows the Pease format. Under the Pease limits named after a Congressman who proposed this in the 1990's, 3% of the amount above the threshhold income is deducted from the total deductions. Feldstein's proposal limited deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income. Romney offered a plan to limit deductions to $25,000. Finally, increasing the estate tax to 40% from 35% raises $20 billion....

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Michaelson and Narli show that Erdogan remains popular even in earthquake hit areas in this report in The Guardian from Kahramanmaras, Turkey. A report in the NYT shows Erdogan at rallies in rural provinces and smaller cities across Turkey, citing poetry, invoking God, and staying on the campaign trail. Erdogan won two thirds of the vote in Sivas one of the founding places for the revolution under Mustafa Kemal that made Turkey an independent nation largely out of Anatolian province. The main base of Mustafa Kemal in 1923 the year of the founding of the Turkish nation with the Treaty of Lausanne was in Ankara. This was under the banner of the Republican party which is now in the opposition with the mayors of Ankara and Istanbul from this party. Both the opposition and Erdogan face a difficult time ahead whoever wins as inflation is at 40% and the cost of living crisis remains a difficult challenge for any government.

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In his campaign announcement for 2024 Mike Pence says "the Republican party must always be the party of the Constitution of the United States." Pence former US Vice President says he chose the Constitution over Mr. Trump on January 6, 2020. The Constitution of the United States of America says "We the People..," no one individual has importance. The actual words are- "We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, to establish Justice, ensure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common Defense, promote the General Welfare and secure the Blessings of Liberty on Ourselves and our Posterity, do hereby ordain and establish the Constitution of the United States." Mike Pence showed he understood the sacrifices of the founders and soldiers who fought for the Union against the British Empire and what it means to "secure the Blessings of Liberty on Ourselves and our Posterity."

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The Trump campaign rally forms the core of a movement that held together and turned into one of the most steadfast movements in modern American political history. It has changed the Republican Party. About 5-10% of the people attending the rallies are steadfast supporters who attend multiple rallies. This WSJ report profiles one attendee who is a 64 year old retiree who trusts Trump to personally deliver the news to her at these rallies. Of the 550 campaign events conducted by Trump 70% are trademark rallies. Most rally diehards are white and many are retired or have the time on their hands, not tied to home, some even live from paycheck to paycheck. Some love the energy, and some even voted for Mr. Obama. Most are not rich by any means, but fed up with Bush and Obama, and what they call "the swamp." 

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The NYT, Wash Post, WSJ, and television shows such as CBS, fail to clearly give a summary of Harris and Trump policies, showing  dangers or opportunities. Key issues are Immigration and here Kamala Harris simply will sign into law in the first months of her presidency the Republican Lankford McConnell legislation that president Biden has negotiated and agreed to for closing the Border with Mexico and fixing asylum policy.  

Social Security Medicare- The Trump plan for ending tax on Social Security in effect defunds Social Security and Medicare. For what purpose? Ending the tax only gets people earning less than $60,000  90 dollars. That's correct $90, according to Tax Policy center. And on average $550. It will bring up the insolvency of Medicare up by 6 years to 2031, and lead to cut in Social Security Benefits of 25% in 2032, according to Center for a Responsible Budget.

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The Des Moines Register Selzer polling track record for 2004-2024 is shown here for Iowa.  Over 20 years Des Moines Register and Selzer are shown to have a close understanding of this state in the heartland of America.

Over 20 years only in 2004 Bush vs Kerry when it polled for Kerry 5 points ahead and the result Bush up by less than 0.7 percentage point. In that one Bush worked hard into the last hours with support of evangelicals. In all over 20 years Des Moines Register got it close to the final result.

Between 1984 to 2004- Reagan was the last Republican to win in Iowa.

Popular three time Governor Tom Vilsack was Secretary of Agriculture under president Biden and the most respected member of his cabinet. Vilsack was given full support and funding by Biden for renewal of Rural and Agricultural America.

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Harris will visit United Autoworkers Union Local 652 in Lansing to remind autoworkers of the support of president Joe Biden for the labor movement in the US. And for the efforts for restoring jobs and wages after decades of neglect by both previous Democratic and Republican administrations. Biden was the first US president to stand on a picket line inthe history of the US. Harris-Walz now look to unions and labor support, support of workers and families in the industrial midwestern states. For the first time old rust belt factories are being revived with new infrastructure renewal and new technologies products in a new concept that is tried for the first time at a scale of investments of billions of dollars that was never done before. This is the breakthrough that Biden and now Harris  are putting through as The Way Forward for a new generation and the Renewal of America.

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Donald Trump says of Susie Wiles who transformed his campaign with quiet determined old style demeanor-

"Susie just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history. She is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected. It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female chief of staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud.”

Suzie says-

"There are changes we must live with in order to get done the things we’re trying to do."

“In my early career things like manners mattered and there was an expected level of decorum." From Lincoln to Eisenhower there was this level of decorum.

"And so I get it that the GOP (Republican party) of today is different."

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Values of St Augustine are to be celebrated with Vance, and of Mohandas Gandhi with Harris. Then why the discord? End wars (Biden ending the war in Afghanistan). End migrant incursions Harris pledge to sign the Lankford-Biden legislation into law that fixes asylum entry and Closes the Border with Mexico. Cost of living that hurts the needy and middle class the most. As Applebaum writes about Housing costs Trump has no plan, Harris is willing to put government resources into it. Republicans have their hands tied by a hands off government that is supposed to do nothing and hope everything will work out. That is without corporate housing company greed in a system that doesn/t work -they set the prices too high. As Kristof writes about in the NYT the Republicans will not support paid marital leave, will not support child care assistance, will not support cuts to high pharmaceutical costs, making healthcare unaffordable even to the middle class not to speak of the lower income working class. And will not support investment in the infrastructure that is crumbling around us even as the infrastructure is crumbling around us, like the bridge in Baltimore that went down in minutes. Trump used infrastructure issue in 2016 and rightly so, and talked about it being Infrastructure Week every week, yet did nothing for infrastructure, nothing serious until Biden in 2016-2020. This a continuing project for Harris. Part of this is to end the wars (Biden's efforts in Afghanistan ending it). And end the migrants incursions, Harris 's pledge to sign the Lankford-Biden immigration bill that fixes asylum entry and closes the US Border with Mexico. ...

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Nikki Haley, Republican Governor of S. Carolina, is losing tea party support because of her endorsement of Mitt Romney for president in 2012.

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Nowhere in the U.S. are the approaches to the budget crisis in U.S. states so different than in Republican Kansas and Democratic Maryland.

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Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

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Under the Volcker Rule setup during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, banks total investments in private equity, hedge funds and similar higher risk funds cannot exceed 3% of high quality capital. During the financial crisis investment banks were highly leveraged leading to the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the precarious financial condition of other banks. Goldman has pared down about 60% of such investments. Remaining are $4.8 billion in private equity investments, $1.2 billion in real estate, and about $1.1 billion in both credit and hedge funds. Regulators have given the bank till July 2017 to comply. As banks recovered from the impact of the crisis, the tearing of the social fabric that happened with high unemployment in some groups especially older white men, has remained six years after the crisis- as evident in the U.S. election campaigns this year. As a result the mood has shifted for tighter regulation and both party platforms, Republican and Democratic, now call for reinstatement of the Glass Steagall Act, which separated commercial banking from investment banking as part of the lessons learned from the Great Depression. Volcker, was chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve during the Carter administration, known for taking a tough line against inflation. He was the principal driver of the move to restrict banks from risky activity, and faced considerable opposition from banks during the 2009-2013 period when the rule was being formulated.  ...

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This WSJ analysis shows that in the counties that flipped to Biden in the U.S. election about 40% of the people had white collar jobs and were better educated and in metropolitan regions. Of the counties that flipped to Trump about 20% had white collar jobs with only 1.4% jobs growth whereas the improvement in the counties that flipped to Biden had much higher jobs growth of 5.3%. Where Biden prevailed 70% of America's GDP is generated, where Trump prevailed 30% is generated. One is white collar in metropolitan regions, in cities and suburbs, better educated. The other is blue collar, less educated. One blue collar is hit hard by the pandemic, the other is white collar but also includes some of the people hardest hit in the pandemic of minorities in the cities and suburbs. In truth none can benefit without bringing all along. And loyalties shift as most of the professional class was once with Republicans who were the party of business. The sending out of American manufacturing to China has not only affected the economy, it has also changed the parties as the Republicans took up the cause of American manufacturing workers changing the two parties. For most of the twentieth century this was not the case as FDR, Truman and Kennedy-Johnson, were Democratic presidents supported by blue collar workers.   ...

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The U.S. government partially shutdown on December 22, 2018, after members of Congress failed to reach a deal on funding a border wall with Mexico that president Trump has supported. Mr. Trump is seeking $5 billion for constructing the border wall which he sees as needed for securing the border. Two bills in Congress provide $1.3 billion and $1.6 billion in spending. The shutdown comes at a time of Christmas holidays with Democrats and Republicans continuing negotiations for a deal. A House Bill provides $5.7 billion for the wall, but faces a hurdle in the Senate where 60 votes are required and Republicans have a slim 51-49 majority. The border wall with Mexico is part of Mr. Trump's core campaign pledge. Mr. Trump sought to blame Democrats for the shutdown.

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German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht says Germany will send anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine. She said "we are working together with our American friends in training Ukrainian troops on artillery systems on German soil." 

The decision by Russia to launch a new offensive in the south and east of Ukraine after the stalling of the Russian forces near Kiev, has led to a shift in American policy to decisively counteract the Russian moves into Ukraine with weapons and training assistance. WIth both Republicans and Democrats determined to support president Biden in this decision, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Foreign Minister Blinken visited Kviv and then landed at Ramstein Air Force Base to coordinate the efforts from Germany.

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US president Biden visits the southern border with Mexico where there is a surge of migrants mostly from Nicaragua. He meets Texas Governor Abbott and visits the El Paso border area and El Paso county Migrant Support Center. He will then meet Lopez Obrador of Mexico and Justin Trudeau of Canada in a summit meeting in Mexico. This report in the WSJ says Mr. Biden is pursuing policy that will send back migrants including Title 42 used by the Trump administration. Republicans have made the border a top priority. Trump era policy requires Mexico to take back 30,000 migrants a month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Biden plans to continue these policies for illegal entry to stem the surge.

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Greg Ip of the WSJ says a second term of former president Trump would look very different from the first. Republicans achieved their goal of tax reform in the first two years of that term. Following that trade tariffs ensued against China creating a different environment in world trade. A second term would lead to more action on trade and more tariffs. Ip says the former president could impose tariffs on all Chinese imports and this would lead to retaliatory tariffs from China and be met with EU retaliatory action in a tit for tat manner. The result would be disruption in world trade and affect the world economy. Higher inflation could also be result of such disruptions.

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Former Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on what it means to spend $17 billion less on defense when defense budgets for 2024 are continued for 2025 year without defense appropriations. To meet the additional 10% pay increase for junior defense personnel and payroll for 2 million members of the defense service members it means using some of the money allocated for defense equipment upgrades says McConnell. 

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This editorial in the WSJ tells readers not to confuse the spirit of a pro-growth initiative in the CEO statement of Oct. 2012 with a simple tax increase. The CEO's are doing this as a part of a larger effort for a strong recovery in the U.S. economy and not simply to increase taxes. For the first time CEO's are backing tax increases to break the influence of what the Journal calls Republican deadenders who flatly oppose any tax increases period leading to unacceptable deadlock and uncertainty that prevents business from investing and hiring. This is part of a broader set of tax reforms to lower rates overall, reduce tax expenditures and support the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations framework to reduce the deficit.

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Russian proposals for settlement in Ukraine including giving up the whole eastern Donbass region, recognizing Crimea as part of Russia, and limiting its army and long range weapons. These are the same conditions set in 2022. There is a new situation developing in Europe as Germany, France, Britain and most of Eastern Europe looks to be firm in support of Ukraine. Germany is stepping up its military preparedness under chancellor Merz of the CDU led coalition government. The US under DJT is working under two pathways seeking engagement with Russia and at the same time seeking a way to settle the Ukraine conflict. With German, British and EU support it appears unlikely that Ukraine would agree to all the Russian terms as Russia is using some gains on the war front to gain a clear win in 2025. By 2026 with European support Ukraine may look for a settlement that offers better terms than currently offered by Russia. For the US DJT faces pressures from within the Republican party that would oppose giving Russia a win after its role as the aggressor in the Ukraine conflict, and after the bombing destruction of Ukraine's cities.   ...

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In this article in the WP Hohmann points out a rule mentioned by Secretary Powell and Armitage, that "you brake it, you own it," a kind of Pottery Barn rule. When you have the majorities in both houses of Congress and the White House, then there is nobody to blame if you cannot produce results or things don't improve. This happened to Obama, Pelosi and Reid after 2008 when they lost both houses of Congress in the 2010 midterms. Now the Trump Republicans with Ryan and McConnell face the same situation.