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Insights from Jagdish Bhagwati- 1) Poverty actually declined under the previous government, it was displaced by the Congress not because poverty had increased but by the revolution of rising expectations and the democratic processes functioning in India. 2) The pressure cooker democratization in a place like Iraq is different from democracy in India, because India had democratic processes and rule of law under the British, which was followed by democratic processes functioning under the Nehru years and right upto to the present day. This is almost over 100 years of democratic practice. 3) Minority rights were respected by the post independence governments. 4) In China the government thinks riots are caused by inequality and rural-urban prosperity divide. Actually it is more because of the lack of democratic processes functioning in China to accomodate the revolution in rising expectations. 5) From a perspective of longterm sustainable growth this makes India's democratic functioning a better approach. Bhagawati does not mention the advantages in terms of private initiative that are fostered in a system of private capital and private companies. This dates back to the Tata enterprises under the British going back a hundred years....

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India is becoming a major destination for foreign investment in manufacturing in many industries. The youth population 15-24 now exceeds that of China. Over the period 2015-2019 the number of youth 15-24 will increase to be close to 250 million in India in 2019, compared to a rapidly declining youth population in China of little over 150 million in 2019, according to the International Labor Organization. China's one child policy, investigation of multinationals business practices, and increasing wages in manufacturing, are reducing its attractiveness for foreign investors. Other destinations such as Russia are less attractive because of the economic crisis after falling oil prices. India also benefits from the large drop in oil prices to help reduce its chronic deficit and lower inflation- significant dividends at a critical time. Raghuram Rajan, head of the central bank, estimates the gain from the drop in oil prices at about $50 billion. Indonesia also benefits from the same trends. Prime minister Modi is reducing the bureaucratic structures and red tape that are a legacy of the Congress governments since independence in 1947, creating a new climate for business investment. ...

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Wholesale inflation calculated weekly is at 7% in India. And the country's Finance Minister Chidambaram says he is more concerned about inflation than a growth that slows a bit. Experts forecast growth slowing down from 9% to 7% in the next 2 years as the global slowdown affects India. For the US India has been a good export market with sales growing at the rate of 75% a year according to the USA Commerce Department. But a look at the charts shows that China also had periods of a couple of years when growth slowed to 7% in recent years before it gradually went back up to over 10%. And China's growth will also be affected by the global slowdown and fall weel below 10%. And this may be a health y thing for China as it decides what kind of growth it wants to see that is better than the haphazard growth of the last few years with its huge environmental costs and lax regulation and the imbalances in growth between urban and rural as well as wages and benefits without labor law protections to create domestic consumption by a middle class. ...

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The constructive contribution made by the G-20 meetings of leaders towards building agreement on economic and other policies for peace and progress in the global economy. The meetings were especially useful for coordinating policy and addressing issues arising in the global economy after the 2008 financial crisis. Here Li Baodong, China's vice minister for international organizations and conferences, international economic affairs, describes the path ahead: IMF reforms implementation, better coordination of macroeconomic policies, pursuing the anti-protectionist and free trade policies with further support to the WTO and ministerial MC9 meeting in Bali in Dec. 2013, and infrastructure financing proposals for developing countries on the agenda at the St Petersburg, Russia, G-2- meeting in Sept. 2013. Baodong says the mechanism called the Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth as part of the G-20 meetings is a major achievement. Each G-20 economy submits it macroeconomic policy plan for a Mutual Assessment Process under this arrangement. The progress from the Bretton Woods financial architecture to the new arrangement- from the G-6 to the G-20 to include developing countries from India to Mexico and Brazil- is another major achievement, not fully recognized by the public, says Baodong. Interestingly Baodong makes particular mention to global rebalancing, rather than pushing what he calls the impossible task of increasing demand to get growth. This is a realization coming to China's economic policymakers under the new Jinping-Keqiang administration after the overly aggressive effort to stimulate demand in the 2009-2011 Stimulus, and the ensuing financial problems in the banking and credit system. It is indicative of the policy shift and its implementation underway in China in 2013-2015....

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Pakistan has always suffered from tax collection that is some of the poorest in the world. This leaves little money for badly needed infrastructure and roads. At a time when countries such as Indonesia and India are rapidly building roads and infrastructure, Pakistan depends on projects and financing almost entirely from China.  This means dependence on foreign debt financing such as that of the $2 billion Orange Line, Pakistan's first Metro line in Lahore. This is one of the first projects one of $16 billion in projects started from a planned $62 billion under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that taking on so much debt leaves Pakistan dependent on Chinese financing, with increased debt payments leading to a debt crisis. External debt will double to over $100 billion from a little over $50 billion in 2013, according to the IMF, reaching 30% of GDP. External financing needs have doubled from 4% of GDP or about $10 billion in 2013-2015 period doubling to over $20 billion and 8% of GDP. A steep increase in debt in a space of only 3 years. Pakistan faces problems similar to that faced by other countries including Ceylon, Burma. Pakistan has fallen behind on debt payments for electricity projects, because of problems getting Pakistanis to pay electric bills. Other problems are that the projects use Chinese workers and Chinese contractors so that they do not generate jobs the way projects would normally generate domestic jobs and growth including pushing domestic firms up the experience and knowledge curve in construction and technology. The opaqueness of the deals lead to a lack of required transparency. The projects also lack the almost zero interest financing from Japan of projects such as the first bullet train in India on Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor because of the lack of negotiating leverage and other problems.  By early fall 2018 Pakistan is expected to seek IMF financing, which would lead to conditions set by the IMF on how much it can borrow and spend under the Belt and Road Initiative, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC. This means effectively that the Wst will bail out a country after investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. ...

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There is a price for a socialist state run society adopting capitalism without understanding it. Russia experienced this in the 1990's as the Soviet system collapsed and the capitalist system took its place by 1990 with flagrant abuses. Only to be stabilized in the Putin years till the war in Ukraine affected the Russian economy. China avoided this fate by continuing its accelerated path to industrialization till the 2009 financial crisis. But hidden in its seemingly successful modernization effort was the role of LGFV's and selling of land to support the LGFV's. Local governments did not take on debt themselves, they passed on the debt to Local Government Financing Vehicles LGFV's- about 8 trillion dollars of debt 80%-90% not serviceable for interest payments, zombie status requiring borrowing for annual spending.  Most city councils or mayors did not understand these vehicles were debt and some even asked "do we have to pay it back?" LGFV's were not understood by mayors and city councils brought up under a socialist state run economy. They used it to follow the central government in Beijing's orders to come up with projects to boost growth year after year to rates of growth of 10% in the 1990's and 2000's, heedless of the risks because they never really understood the capitalist system and its pitfalls.  As long as land could be sold there was some revenue for local governments and room for shifting $8 trillion in debt to other LGFV's. Once the construction industry collapsed and companies went bankrupt their were few buyers for land. The central government cannot take on some of this $8 trillion in debt. As a result China is now facing what the Russians faced - a crisis from lack of grasp of the severe pitfalls of capitalism when its risks are not understood for economies that were in the 20th century experiencing upheavals, wars and then socialist state run economies. What this means is that the Chinese economy will slow, has no choice but to slow down for the next decade to find solutions to this debt overhang over its economy and industrial plans. It also means China's support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict is also problematic for China's internal growth to meet the aspirations of its people. As long as the administration in the US continues to pursue its own economic policies for growth as Biden has done by investing in the American economy, it will have the opportunity to lead the free world and be able to hold out hope for aspirations of countries and regions such as India, Africa and Latin America. ...

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Is PPP Purchasing Power Parity or Market Exchange Rates the right way to measure GDP? PPP is not reliable because of the lack of reliable pricing surveys for China, but Market Exchange Rates do not correctly reflect the growth rates of emerging market countries. The answer lies somewhere in between. The PPP rates used by the World Bank for China and India are not correct and so the numbers used by the IMF and the World Bank may be overstated upto 40% but probably somewhat less.

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Most of the world's poor still live in India, China, Brazil and Zoellick sees the need to continue working in these countries to help them meet the challenges of the environment, of the the need for development in rural areas, challenges in meeting health care and so on.

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China lifts pump prices for gasoline by 10%. Supply shortages have been reported The rising value of Asian currencies such as the rupee help to cushion the increase in crude oil prices in India and other countries. In China and India the Government keeps the price of gasoline and other fuel at affordable prices and oil companies cannot pass on the increase in oil prices. China's oil consumption is increasing rapidly at about 9% a year and lower oil prices does not encourage conservation, at the same time oil prices to consumers especially in the rural and farming areas can be painful if food prices are also going up. How to balance these two considerations and also the international aspect where increases in China's demand for oil are itself a cause of demand side pressures leading to ever higher oil prices, is a challenge for China's policymakers.

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While much of the focus is on the brief air war in the Punjab region in the media. In China, India and the US the real and major challenges are economic. As US tariffs is really about getting back its industrial base from the EU and China, China faces the challenge of adapting to this situation and loss of access to EU and US technologies for the next generation, and India with a smaller industrial base faces challenge of building a large enough industrial base for modernization with full access to US and EU technologies. This is then the study of change starting right here in Uttar Pradesh and in the city of Kanpur. New Metro in Kanpur, new power plants, and new manufacturing plants and infrastructure. PM Modi says- "There are two most essential conditions for the industrial progress of a state: first, self-reliance in the energy sector — that is, uninterrupted electricity supply; and second, infrastructure and connectivity. Today we have inaugurated several power plants: the 660 MW Panki Power Plant, 660 MW Neyveli Power Plant, 1320 MW Jawaharpur Power Plant, 660 MW Obra C Power Plant, and 660 MW Khurja Power Plant. This is a major step toward fulfilling Uttar Pradesh’s energy needs. With these power plants, electricity availability in UP will increase significantly, giving a boost to industries here. Today, development projects worth over $6.7 billion (Rs 47,000 crore) have also been inaugurated or had their foundation stones laid.” ...

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Merkel visits China in August 2012 with a large trade delegation including heads of SAP, Siemens, VW and BASF. Germany's largest export market is in the eurozone, at the same time growth in exports has surged to China and India. Between 2005 and 2011, German exports to the EU countries increased by 24%, to the U.S. by 6.3%, and to China by 206%, according to German government data. German investment in China was 26 billion euros in 2011. By contrast China's investment in Germany is small- only about 1.2 billion euros. The impression is that large firms such as VW and Siemens make up most of the investment. In actual fact the German Chamber of Commerce in China says 5000 German companies operate in China, employing 220,000 people, and three fourths of this is from the German "Mittelstand," midsize family owned companies. The Foundation for Family Businesses, representing 400 German Mittelstand companies says it needs more help regarding intellectual property protection in China and is not as well represented in the German trade delegation....

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Over 50% of respondents in the 2012 Gallup poll view Japan as the U.S.'s most important partner in Asia, compared to 39% for China. The shift in how Americans view China is pronounced in the last 3 years. In 2010 the two countries were tied 44%-44%. In 2011 China was 39% to Japan's 31%. In 2011 India, S. Korea and Australia were added to the poll as partners. Among "opinion leaders" such as business executives, government officials, academics and journalists, China gets 54% to Japan's 40%. The poll is conducted by Gallup for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan since the 1960's. The analysis shows that respondents picked China for economic reasons not for political reasons. A survey of the general population shows 84% view Japan as a dependable ally, up 2% froom 2011, with similiar trend for opinion leaders.

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How tariffs will increase prices depends on product, on supply. Commodity products in wide use will have many suppliers and the price increase will be small. On smartphones and cars with imported components higher and this will lead to shift in production to the US, India and Vietnam with longer term benefits reducing concentration of supply chain in China. In the short term there will be some price increase. Yet on some products consumers can shift demand to alternative products or home made products.

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US Typhoon land based missile systems installed in Luzon in the Philippines have longer range 1200 miles and shorter range missiles, and capabilities for intercepting hypersonic missiles. These were installed by the Biden administration and are being continued under DJT. The Typhon system is seen as part of working with allies in the Indo-Pacific as China has installed its own missile systems in the Pacific. Japan and India are developing their own missile defense systems using their own technologies.

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How will countries like India generate jobs when technology enables manufacturing and other activity to do work with fewer and fewer people. Even Hon Hai in China is shifting work to robots. Technological progress is leaving more people unemployed and widening income gaps with the benefits going to a few people, says the Economist in this research based essay. It will require carefully managed governance to invest in infrastructure, raise skills of less skilled workers through education, and wage subsidies for those left behind to ensure our current system works in the future.

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Bloomberg Philanthropies has committed $600 million to fight tobacco use worldwide between 2007-2016. Tactics used in New York City reduced the city's smoking rate from 22% in 2002 to 14% in 2011. These tactics will now be used in countries around the world from China to other developing countries. Already an effort has been funded in Turkey including putting a new smoke-free law in place in 2008. According to Tobacco Atlas cigarettes contributed to 6 million deaths in 2011, 80% in the developing world, with high use in China, Indonesia and India.

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Asian economies have seen a an increase in export dependence in recent years, with 47% of GDP depending on exports. China is a big exporter and will see its 11 % growth in peak years down to 8% and India which is not as big an exporter as China down to 7%. 5% growth would spell trouble in these countries with migration to urban areas from farming country and the lack of a social safety net as well as large number of people who need jobs to earn a living.

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Across Africa the situation is worsening for food security following the pandemic. More people are likely to die from food insecurity than from the pandemic. A succession of crises including drought, a locust swarm moving over vast parts east Africa into South Asia, and tons of crops rotting in the field after the lockdowns, are making the situation worse. With the lockdowns many informal economy workers are not able to earn a living, with no safety net this means they are going without food and slipping deeper into poverty. Remittances from overseas supported many people in the developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and this has dropped by about 20-30%. As a result the World Food Program estimated in April that 265 million people, double that in 2019 will face world hunger- 3 in every 100 in the world. About 821 million will face food insecurity. The world food system is fragile with just none plant species accounting for two thirds the global crop, with threats of soil erosion, rising temperatures, extreme weather and disease. Wars, high inflation, political struggles, and conflicts make things worse. The hope comes from the fact that this time the largest countries China and India are emerging in 2020 very different from what they faced for most of the nineteenth century, with recurring famines and lack of access to food supplies. India now even allows farmers to export food to buyers in other countries directly. Getting money into the hands of farmers and people in food insecurity areas is one way for them to access existing food supplies all over the world. ...

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The symbolism of the Ramstein Air Force Base is unique as US Defense Secretary Austin says this months meeting of Blinken and Austin at Ramstein with their European counterparts will be followed by monthly meetings. Lloyd Austin sees this as a monthly group on Ukraine self-defense. Ramstein Air Force base is the headquarters of the US Air Force in Europe, and of NATO Allied Air Command. For the first time the invasion of a free people and country in the middle of Europe is being taken seriously in Europe and the US.  In Germany Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck of the Greens have joined with Mr. Lindner of the Free Democrats to express the same views in the coalition government with the Social Democrats, making it clear that the German people are with the Americans and European leaders gathered at Ramstein base. The earlier symbolism of Merkel and Steinmeier and a German position of a bystander in the changes happening in the world in China and in Europe are now seen as having emboldened the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India and most Asian and Latin American countries and the UN Secretary General have called for an immediate end to the invasion.  ...

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The world would need 3 Germanys to provide the resources that one Germany consumes today. Earth Overshoot Day looks at the sustainable resources and how much each country consumes of resources. By July 28 planet earth had already consumed all the natural resources it could sustainably regenerate for the year. Experts say Earth would need three quarters of another Earth to provide the amount of resources consumed by our planet today. Everything makes a difference as European Union plans to cut energy use by 15%. Drying clothes on a line instead of in the dryer, shorter hot water baths, turning off lighting for monuments in cities, changing household lights to LED's, lowering the thermostats by a few degrees in winter, cutting out meat for just one or two days a week. The way Overshoot Day works out the arithmetic 1970 was the year when Earth passed the line where sustainable resources that could be regenerated and the consumption of these resources were equal. From then on it was a wild spree in places like Germany and then China, and it is how countries like India take up the work of renewable energy and limiting use of valuable resources that will affect the future. ...

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The dangers of crypto currency have not gone away says Eswar Prasad of Cornell University. Crypto currency companies have simply joined the bandwagon for acceptance using the two political parties into the 2024 elections, he says. He calls this a cynical bid by political parties for Silicon Valley cash and young voters. If anything he says the risks are greater today. Sam Bankman and FTX scandal are just the tip of the iceberg of these risks.  Prasad says not to be fooled. China, India and Japanese governments have kept crypto at a distance because of the dangers inherent in a currency that cannot have the backing of the central bank. Prasad says that crypto itself still has dangers of speculation, financial engineering and outright fraud. These dangers can then spillover into traditional banking and financial markets. The information technology that crypto has used is already being used in traditional banking so that this is no longer something that is characteristic of crypto just something that it has been using. This is a scant regulated market and crypto companies like tech companies in social media that threatens education and democracy through misinformation want to keep it that way.   ...

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African continent debt reached $1.1 trillion in 2024. About 900 million people live in African countries where interest payments on debt exceed money spent on healthcare and education. In Nigeria external debt is $40 billion, in Kenya $35 billion and Uganda $12 billion.  Take Nigeria with 220 million people. 40% of the revenue collected goes to meet interest payments on debt. For many African countries there is zero per capita income growth for a decade. During the 2010 crisis as interest rates reached new lows US and European Reagan era intellectuals including Democrats encouraged African countries to borrow at low rates and banks loosened restrictions putting more African countries into debt buildup borrowings. As interest rates went up the cost of paying the debt accumulated required more loans at higher interest rates. Nigeria paid a premium over that of 10% for a loan of $2 billion just for interest payments. The debt crisis means African currencies depreciate reducing purchasing power.  With war in Ukraine and Covid prices of food and energy rose. Only the strong and disciplined leadership and rapid industrialization provided breathing room as with Modi in India, Jinping in China, the African continent and Latin America lacked this and are feeling the pain. ...

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In this audio BBC Witness History talks with Shuji Nakamura, the inventor of the LED lightbulb in 1992.  Nakamura shows the resilience and stubborn persistence against the odds that has given the world an extraordinary invention. The LED bulb does great things for climate change action because for example Califonria uses 35% of its electricity for lighting. The LED bulb cuts this in half and this means many coal fired power plants are not needed. In India, Indonesia and China this means lighting for about 3 billion people, with lighting for children studying in remote parts of India and China, and in Africa and Latin America. Nakamura took an unconventional route. He did his PhD in Japan not by going to school which is allowed in Japan, but by writing a paper on White LED development. He made a single minded focus on this goal. Nakamura says it made him angry that no one wanted to try new ideas and he persisted for years of research. At the time GaN research was done by less than one percent of researchers. Nakamura decided to try the path less trodden and by 1992 developed a blue light emitting LED bulb. Add phospor particles and blue becomes bright white LED. ...

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To keep prices from taking a nosedive if there is a slowdown, as for example in the Chinese economy, a concentration of resources within 3 or 4 mining companies enable them to slow down development of new deposits to adjust supply with demand. In this case even if China slows, India, Russia and Brazil may still pick up, as they may be less sensitve to the U.S. consumer than China. China is a manufacturing export based economy compared to India and Russia, which are more dependent on internal demand. Iron ore prices have increased by three times since 2003, and China's imports of iron ore have gone up from 29% to half of the world's imports. Prices of all commodities copper, alumina, uranium have shot up. BHP and Rio both based in Melbourne, Australia have absorbed all the medium size companies in the Melbourne mining scene. Australia has traditionally been a leader in this field because of its huge mining resources. Other reasons for consolidation are the more complex technologies needed to develop the remaining deposit finds, which are fewer and fewer and of lesser quality. Another factor is that the resource nationalism in India, Bolivia, Indonesia, Mongolia and other places requires more sophisticated investors. Combining Rio and BHP also means BHP can use the better infrastructure of Rio and invest more productively in future infrastructure rail lines and port development to speed exports to other countries. See the Barta article in the WSJ Link on this on Dec 18, 2007. ...

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People have to take charge of their own lives by eating healthy food and lots of fruits and vegetables, to reduce obesity in this pandemic. Studies show that people with obesity were twice as likely to end up in hospital, and 74% more likely to end up in intensive care. Efforts to rid our diets of sugary drinks and junk or processed foods need to be escalated, and exercize, walking, cycling, other activity need to be made part of our daily activity. This needs to be taken up as a fight for life, a war against decades of neglect and reckless behaviour in eating habits.  Even vaccines will not work well when body mass index BMI is over 30. Obesity has reached unbelievable and scary levels - 66% in the UK, U.S., high in the Middle East, and increasing all over the world. Added risk is high smoking levels in China and India. Coca Cola takes the place of water in parts of Mexico where obesity is high and Mexico has suffered from high coronavirus cases. ...