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Britain's economy shrank by 0.5% in the last quarter of 2010, according to Office for National Statistics. Unemployment went up to 7.9% and 2.5 million jobless. Inflation up from 3.3% in the year to November, to 3.7% in December 2010. Mervyn King, governor of Bank of England, says inflation will go up to 4-5% in 2011. The austerity plan is only now beginning to go into effect and creates a difficult year. The VAT, a consumption tax, goes up to 20% from 17.5% on Jan 4th, and public spending cuts go into effect in April. With consumption depressed, higher investment and exports are the two areas supporting growth. There is a risk that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates, as it left interest rates at 0.5% in December 2010. Under these conditions not much of a recovery can be expected in 2011-2012.

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The air quality around Chinese cities is worsening because of coal fired plants and increasing demand for energy, and because of exhaust from automobiles filling the highways. The air quality around Beijing violated the WHO standards more than 80% of the time during the fourth quarter 2008 period. China's Ministry of Environmental Protection says in a report that more than 25% of China's rivers, lakes and streams are too polluted to be used for drinking water. And acid rain is a problem in 200 of 440 cities it has monitored. Efforts to control the exhaust pollution from cars by putting driving restrictions in Beijing are not as effective. One report says that even after 20% of private cars are taken off the road each weekday, the 250,000 new cars that were added to Beijing's streets in the Jan-April 2010 period, have left things as bad as they were before.

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The average of vehicles on the road reached a record of 11.1 years in 2011, according to R.L. Polk research company. Using the average of 15,000 miles driven a year used by the EPA for cost calculation on fuel economy labels, shows that car are being driven for much longer nowadays, over 150,000 miles. In the 1960's and 1970's the average was closer to 100,000 miles. Because of the EPA mandated fuel emissions standards and technological advances the newer cars in 2012 have better life than the older cars in the 1970's. Toyota's, Honda's and Volvo's frequently get 150,000 or 200,000 miles and still have some usage left for example. In addition the tighter fuel efficiency standards of the Obama administration and technological advances now underway are likely to bring a new generation of cars that provide another level of improved performance.

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Former Pearson CEO Marjorie Scardino joins the Board of Directors of Twitter as its first female director. Scardino was the first woman to become CEO of a FTSE 100 company in the UK when she was appointed head of Pearson in 1997. Her reflection on the progress since then is one of disappointment. She told the Telegraph newspaper when she left Pearson that not much had changed in the 16 years since 1997, with few women on the board of directors, chairmen or CEO positions in the corporate world. Yoree Koh points out in this report that only 8.4% of Silicon Valley companies have women directors, according to an annual study put out in Dec. 2012 by the Universiy of California, Davis. About 40% of the tech companies in the S&P Composite 1500 index have no women on their boards, according to an Ernst & Young report.

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The NYT editorial on December 5 the day after the second effort by the automakers to present a case for a bailout loan, this time for $34 billion. The NYT says this time the automakers CEO's left 2 things behind in Detroit. One is their resignations, and other is plans to truly achieve the fuel efficiency gains possible comparable to what the European Union is aiming for, which is 50 miles per gallon in 2015. Instead the congress enacted under the influence of automaker lobbying groups a watered down fuel efficiency bill according to NYT, of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. It says experts believe that 43mpg could be achieved by then (2020) even without any technological breakthroughs and 50mpg could be achieved by making smaller cars. Only new management says the NYT could bring the deep cultural change needed for the industry in Detroit.

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Ajami points out the risks of the deal secularists and liberals in Egypt have made in calling on the military to upset the elected government of prime minister Morsi. The liberals and the Muslim Brotherhood were both equally opposed to the military and police intervention in politics in the period following Mubarak's ouster. The six decade rule of the military in Egypt has little to show for it in the modernization of Egypt and improving economic conditions. Egypt has seen this script before, says Ajami of the Hoover Institution- in 1952 the military stepped in after corruption in the political parties and political violence. The results were dismal extending throughout the period of modernization in Asia and Latin America. It has left Egypt frightfully behind in most dimensions of education, healthcare, and technological progess. The lack of training in parliamentary and democratic governance, and in the institutions of democracy are painfully evident- the poor roadmap for democracy laid out by the military, followed by the election, the decrees and authoritarian style critics describe of prime minister Morsi in failing to incorporate liberal opinion in policy, and the flawed secularist calls for the military to overturn the elected government with only one year in office. These institutions will take a long time to build and require patience, flexibility and the gift of wisdom on all sides....

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Leading engineers who left Chrysler include Mike Donoughe, and William Mattingly.

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The latest news from Catalonia ahead of the Dec. 21, 2017 election shows a hugely divided region in Catalonia, as prime minister Rajoy of Spain campaigns in Barcelona. The head of the left wing ERC party which is likely to win the largest share of the vote according to a poll in newspaper La Vanguardia was arrested along with fired ministers in the Puigdemont government. This time unlike the 2015 election ERC party says it will not join Mr. Puigdemont in a single pro independence bloc. Mr. Puigdemont is in exile in Brussels after declaring independence for Catalonia. Barcelona's mayor Ada Palau who won in 2015 on a platform showing support for people who suffered after the financial crisis and real estate meltdown, says she does not support the independence movement. Palau says Mr. Puigedemont and others "tricked the population for their own interests." She is critical of the way prime minister Rajoy handled the crisis including invoking Article 155 to dismiss the elected government for new elections. Palau has broken the pact with the Socialist Party. This shows a fragmented and divided population when it comes to independence. This BBC report says about half of Catalans today do not support independence for a complete break with Spain. ...

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Mr. Moon Jae-in, South Korea's leader, emerges from this week of direct talks between president Trum and Kim Jong Un of North Korea, with many of his goals accomplished. During most of 2018 with threats and missile tests from the North relations with the U.S. had worsened, South Korea was left out in many developments relating to the Korean peninsula, and tensions had risen. After this weeks diplomacy in Singapore, the South Korean leader has reduced tensions, achieved the goal of direct talks between the U.S. and North Korea, and reduced tensions. Moon-Jae-in now has poplarity of 79% according to Gallup South Korea, and won in local elections. Even the cancellation of military exercizes by president Trump after the Kim meeting achieves a long standing goal of reducing tensions by moderating the exercizes- which are seen by North Korea as a threat. A Gallup poll shows 66% of South Koreans supporting the Kim- Trump talks. Conservatives in South Korea are still skeptical that this can last given past experience with North Korea. The consensus is still that reduction of tensions and dialogue is still the best way to resolve the disputes, with the added pressure of sanctions with China's active participation to make the effort work. ...

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Barley points out the resignation of prime minister Monti in Italy is not a cause for panic, as his likely successor Luigi Bersani, head of the centre left Democratic party which leads in the polls with its electoral alliance having about 43% support, has committed to following through with Monti's policies and committments to the EU. Berlusconi is not the factor he once was with only 15% support in the polls, and anti establishment parties opposing public corruption such as Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement appealing to younger people have about 20% support changing the political landscape in Italy. Other factors favoring Italy- a lower level of debt redemption in 2013 of 158 billion euros compared to 200 billion euros for 2012 will lower Italian bond issuance, Italy's primary budget surplus, the Italian economy bottoming out, and credit conditions improving. Year to date Italian bonds have returned 19.5%, and he sees no reason for an exit from Italian bonds. If polls continue to show a committment to the policies introduced by Monti, Italian bonds will continue to be attractive for investors. By setting Italy on the path to restoring and strengthening governance Monti has removed a key element for volatility in Italian bonds....

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In this exceptional report from Monrovia and the countryside, NYT's Helene Cooper shows why the Ebola outbreak could occur in Liberia. Basic healthcare, functioning schools, electricity and running water were all scarce in Liberia following the civil war and military misrule in the country. Liberia was barely recovering from the severe breakdown when the Ebola outbreak occurred in 2014.

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The 'Querdenker" ("lateral thinkers") movement in Germany now has branches in 50 towns across the country, and calls for freedom of opinion, expression, and assembly. Some of these protests are against the coronavirus restrictions, particularly because of economic difficulties and cultural attitudes towards restricted life during the first and now second lockdowns. It covers all backgrounds including far right and far left fringes and people of different views on other issues. A Berlin demonstration in late August brought out about 38,000 people and briefly some demonstrators attempted to rush into the Reichstag or parliament building. The police in Germany can only act if the town and municipal authority says it is right to intervene against unruly behaviour in demonstrations. The other factor protecting the Basic Law which protects freedoms in the German Constitution is that the courts in Germany have acted in favor of the demonstrators so that there remains a fair balance between the need for covid restrictions and the need to demonstrate against these restrictions affecting the right to work and economic freedoms. As well as the pushback against these restrictions for cultural and other reasons.  The initial fear of being infected is now being strongly offset by fears of the economic consequences of an extended lockdown particularly for vulnerable groups who cannot work from home such as in construction, manufacturing, transportation, retail and tourism related industries. The next big demonstration is set for Saturday November 14 in the eastern city of Leipzig with about 20,000 demonstrators expected and police getting reinforcements from neighboring states and federal police. ...

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The Spanish Supreme Court verdict giving jail sentences to 11 Catalan leaders for the part they played in pushing for independence of the Catalan region in 2017, has resulted in clashes of protesters with police. The socialist government of Pedro Sanchez faces elections on November 10, 2019.  The government faces the option of activating Article 155 of the Constitution suspending the state government for central rule from Madrid.  One of the problems Spain now faces is that there is no clear majority for independence with the region divided between people who prefer to remain in a united Spain and people who prefer Catalan independence. In a recent BBC Hardtalk this was brought up in questions put to the Catalan independent movement spokesperson. The support for independence has actually declined in recent years. The Guardian cites a Catalan government poll in July showing 48% of Catalans oppose independence and 44% support it. Independence is not supported by the EU and it is not clear whether Catalan economy would do better outside Spain, as some of the causes of the economic problems stem from the banking and housing crisis in Spain and overborrowing. Mr Sanchez on the Madrid side and the Republican Left on the Catalan side favor negotiations on economic issues raised by Catalan people. As a result there may be less support than previously for outright independence, particularly when it is realized that the economic issues come from mismanagement and corruption and that the new Spanish constitution was designed to give regions special rights after the Franco years.  ...

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Rate of diabetes is rapidly going up in India. In addition scientists have shown that Indians are more prone to diabetes if they are obese to the same extent as someone from Canada or the U.S. This is called thin-fat diabetes- a higher impaired glucose intolerance- and comes from centuries of body changes following famine in parts of the country from failure of monsoon rains. The obesity rate is going up dramatically and with it diabetes is up significantly.  From 6.4% obese or overweight in 1990, by 2017 18.8% are obese or overweight, according to Health Metrics and Evaluation Institute of the University of Washington. The International Diabetes Federation now predicts 123 million with diabetes in India by 2040. By 2017 diabetes rates went up from 1990- from 5.5% to 7.7% or 63 million people. The major problem in South Asian countries and in China is the growing use of packaged and processed foods, fast food and carbonated drinks. Efforts to prevent the sale of junk foods is a battle being fought between private citizens and the large processed foods companies such as Coca Cola, Pepsi and Nestle. This is the subject of this article with Mr. Verma taking the case to the Delhi High Court facing large opposition. Mr. Verma left his job as a marketing executive as he took care of his sick child. He filed a case in the Delhi High Court in 2010, and faces the opposition of the India Food Processors Association- so far there is little progress.   ...

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The situation in China with recent rural migrants shown to be different from the migrants from rural areas in the earlier phase of development after the opening in 1990 under Deng. The overnight eviction of recent rural area migrants from Beijing, referred in official documents as "low-end population" leaves this segment of the population (about 90 million) facing uncertain future. The previous generation of rural migrants were seen as more stable as they could farm and had connections to the villages and rural areas. The new migrants lack connection to villages and have little experience working on farms. They were born since 1980, and are seen in party documents as a new generation of migrants. The earlier generation had seen the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution and memories of poverty, and were focused on basic needs.  The new generation of migrants is more dissatisfied, has more education but of lower quality, some were left behind in rural areas by parents who migrated to cities, and men in this group face a lack of women partners because of the one child system and decline in female births. Two thirds of these migrants are unmarried and the men lack the income to pay what is called a reverse dowry of having an apartment and a car to attract women for marraige. The governing party sees this new group of $90 million which has no access to subisidized education and health care under the resident "hukou" system as a source of instability in urban areas of China. ...

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The failure of the economics profession to produce any red flags for this economic crisis, and the failure of economists to come to any consensus on what works to come out of this crisis, along with the huge confidence with which the economics profession displayed as the economy sailed along in most of the post war years, is one of the very noticeable things as one reflects on what has happened. Journalists like Peter Coy at BW who wrote this report followed the housing market for BW and raised red flags long before the crisis hit, just by looking at the facts. So its clear that looking at the facts through the lens of a particular theory of economics, or the lens of some ideological bias, or the lens of triumphalism, can handicap economists. There are economists who believe in the stimulus, and economists who don't believe in a stimulus, and others who think the economy reaches equilibrium of itself if left alone, and economists who believe in tax cuts. Were it not for the fact that the risks in a time like this are really great in depending on one or the other for advice if things don't work out the way they think, this would not be such a big issue. But a lot hangs inthe balance. Which is why decisions are based on what is actually happening on the ground, and by getting a good sense of that, and a grasp of real conditions, and getting agood sense of what will work in that particular situation, and not just hoping that things will work out according to some theory or conviction in the mind. And those who execute or manage the economy instead of teaching a class, have to be aware of the great responsibility for the lives of millions of people here and in poor countries around the globe, whose lives and the lives of their children, nutrition, health and education depend on their decisions, not just when they are in office but years after they have left. And for this reason exercize needed caution....

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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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James McCauley of the Washington Post looks at the drop in popularity of Emmanuel Macron by August 2017. After winning the election with 66% of the vote Macron appears to have stumbled. Experts attribute the decline to the way he has handled relations with the media by reducing contact, and appearing aloof. He handled the decision to continue with defense cuts for 2017 of $1 billion poorly by avoiding discussion and appearing undiplomatic in his response to the military. Military officials opposed the move, and openly discussed it in the news media, saying the cuts left France less prepared for its global responsibilities and for domestic terrorism. Other problems included the inexperience of newly elected members of parliament during the first session of parliament, leading to administrative chaos.

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To help growth in the present situation of the pandemic the U.S. central bank is adopting a new policy of letting inflation float above 2%. Interest rates will be kept low for a longer period to support jobs and growth. Jerome Powell the head of the Federal Reserve announced the new policy.  Powell is mainly concerned about jobs. He sees a lot of difficulty in the services sector as jobs are lost. It will take time for this sector to recover. This is "a strategy where undershoots are not forgotten" Powell told the Jackson Hole gathering, meaning that the Fed in contrast to current policy will adopt a strategy of staying with a goal of full employment till the people who are lagging behind in regaining employment are back on the boat with the rest. In the past these people were left to fend for themselves, even when the loss of work was due to no fault of their own- crises from banks overlending and losing money as in 2009, or today because of a virus from Wuhan.  This is the part of economic policy that resonates in the country today and it shows that the Fed is on board in the effort to revive the American economy putting the people first as in the early years after the second world war when national unity prevailed under both Truman and Eisenhower. Powell uses both economic jargon about "a long tail" and common sense language in a way few central bank presidents have in America. He says the Fed is looking at "a long tail of a couple of years at least" during which he says the Fed will "stay with these people, the millions of people still looking for work." No mathematical formulas will be used. Just plain common sense and putting the people of America first, which is just what is needed. Mathematical economics have taken America nowhere. ...

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This report in WSJ looks at the unanimous vote in the House of Representatives delisting hundreds of Chinese companies trading on U.S. stock exchanges. The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act passed by unanimous voice vote in the House of Representatives after a similar vote in the Senate in May, and will be signed into law by president Trump. The law says foreign companies should be delisted if they fail to comply with U.S. Public Accounting Oversight Board regulatory agency's financial audits for 3 years in a row. The basis of the law is that all companies should be equally treated and required to meet U.S. regulatory standards to be listed. It also ensures safety for investors who may be defrauded of their money investing in companies that have not met such audit requirements. Wirecard in Germany and some Chinese companies have failed in the past because of lax overseas standards. This gives three years for the Chinese companies to prepare. This report also points out that the MSCI Index has 43% Chinese companies even more than before. American investors can still buy these stocks on the Hong Kong exchanges so that if fairness and investor protection should prevail American investors have to think and act along the same lines. China is also decoupling from the U.S. to some extent and pushing to have its companies listed on the Hong Kong Shanghai and  Shenzen stock exchanges. For these reasons the access to global capital is not likely to be affected by this law particularly with the behaviour of major American institutional investors. China is providing incentives to these investors even though it did not do so in the past creating another hurdle to the goal of creating a level playing field in regulatory requirements stock for all companies listed on American exchanges and safety for investors.  ...

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Donald Trump is acquitted in the second impeachment trial with a vote in the Senate of 53 in favor to 47 against. A two thirds majority is required to impeach a president. Senators Burr of North Carolina and Cassidy of Louisiana were Republicans who joined the expected ones to vote for impeachment- the Republicans Mitt Romney of Utah, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The Republican defense lawyer insisted that Trump's speech to his supporters was not an intention to incite them on the day of the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021 but an expression of his rights to free speech guaranteed under the U.S. Constitution First Amendment. He made the point that the prosecution lawyers had selectively focused attention on the words "fight like hell" and taken them out of the entire context in which they were made, ignoring key parts of Mr. Trump's speech. The defense argued that the president had already left office and this made an impeachment unconstitutional. Seventy five million voters voted for Mr. Trump and he cited this as the most number of votes won by a sitting president. President Biden is shifting his attention to the president's agenda and needs Republican support to pass key legislation including financial help to households, unemployed, and business to recover from the pandemic. The U.S. health effort behind the vaccination drive and seeing the struggle in Europe to access key medical supplies of vaccine is also leading to new efforts to move beyond the rhetoric to the hard work ahead with support of all parties. As part of this the trial once it reached the Senate was quickly resolved in about 5 days. The defense used only a small fraction of the time allotted with bipartisan effort to not let the trial drag on, bipartisan effort to putting some statements simply on the record and not calling witnesses.   ...

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Improvements in birth rate and more immigrants in Germany are making the demographic picture look better in Germany. About 13 million people are expected to reach retirement age in just a few years, according to Prof Enzo Weber, Institute of Employment Research. This means 13 million new pensioners. Birthrate today is about 1.4 children per woman. At this level of birthrate and even a low rate of immigration of 100,000 per year Germany's population of 83 million today would decline over time. Between 1990 and 2008 more people left Germany than came in with a net outflow. Some level of immigration would be the only way to keep the level of people in the workforce of 43 million today to become stable in the future. This would be needed to support the increasing number of pensioners. Yet the general aging of the population is expected to continue. And a high level of immigration in too short a time such as from the Syrian refugee crisis creates other tensions in the social fabric of society. Germany's very homogenous society faces a challenge that goes beyond the politics of the refugee crisis of today. Too many immigrants in too short a time is not the solution, immigration has become too politicized in today's context, good and early integration of immigrants through language and culture training needs to be established. Prof. Weber points out that the influx of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe has helped the labor market, and there is no reason that the labor market could not dry up with the number of people retiring soon. Tackling that will involve making family and career life choices easier and enabling flexible work-life choices, increasing retirement age, and some level of healthy immigration. A demographic summit will be held on March 16th in Berlin to look at the problem. ...

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Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza Party in Greece and the effort to reduce the face value of Greece's debt after elections in Jan 2015.

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This editorial in the Economist magazine says Mr. Obama's final State of the Union address showed the frailty of change in the Obama years, with much of it in danger of being removed based on which way the 2016 election goes. A similiar opinion is expressed in Deutsche Welle DW.com's editorial opinion, which stated that one of the tragedies of the two terms of the Obama presidency is that change probably will come with a successor in the office, even though this was what Obama campaigned on in 2008. This is true especially for the middle class and working class, which continued to suffer in the Obama years, leading to widening inequality of opportunity and social disparities. Candidates from both parties now offer solutions based on growth and revision of the tax system on the right, and some version of free health care and college on the left, to increase access to economic opportunity.

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The dangers of a second term as president in the history of the U.S. The difficulties and sometimes disastrous experiences of Adams, Jefferson, Grant, Wilson, Truman, Nixon, Clinton. Truman's popularity rating dropped to 22% during the last years of his second term. He was largely ignored when he left office, as was president Hoover. In addition there is the lame duck effect in the last two years when little in the way of new initiatives are undertaken and the president merely continues in office to finish up his term. Missteps are common- Jefferson with the blockade of trade with European powers, Grant and corruption scandals, Wilson with a tragic effort to get public support for the badly designed Versailles Treaty having a stroke, Nixon and Clinton with the impeachment process for the Watergate and the Lewinsky scandals, Truman's missteps in the Korean War and the firing of Gen. MacArthur leading to precipitious drop in ratings.