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Analysts see the likelihood of Greece exiting the eurozone at over 50%. The actions of the ECB under Mario Draghi to provide funding to weak banks through the Long Term Financing Operation have reduced the effect the effects of contagion from a Greek default spreading to banks in other EU countries. The fiscal pact signed in Jan 2012 at the EU summit with automatic penalties for countries lacking budget discipline provides Angela Merkel more room with her domestic political base to support the EFSF's capacity to help other eurozone countries. Greece with its deteriorating economic situation would then be considered a special case.

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Speaking at the annual meeting of Italy's banking association on July 11, 2012, prime minister Mario Monti calls the struggle he is leading to change the economic performance of Italy, and especially against structural vices in the economy, "a very tough war." He added that the plan to reduce Italy's borrowing rates with the agreement to use the ESM or EFSF, the EU's rescue fund, "must be consolidated both in its substance and the way it is communicated." Bank of Italy governor, Ignazio Visco, said the spread between Italian and German bonds and the borrowing rates approaching 7% for Italy compared to about zero for Germany and France, were "far above what would be justified by the fundamentals of our economy." Deputy finance minister, Vittorio Grilli, is taking over the role of finance minister which Monti had assumed earlier. Monti will lead a new economic and financial policy committee which includes Mr. Grilli and development minister Corrado Passera.

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The prospect of a combined vote of 30-35% for both major political parties of Samaras and Venizelos, with the rest of the vote splintered among right and left wing parties, in the 2012 Greece elections. This will make governing with austerity measures even more difficult.

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The IMF in April 2012 said Spain may have moved too aggressively with austerity measures. The IMF said: The new deficit target in Spain "could have accomodated more fully the impact of the weak growth outlook." This supports the Spanish government's view that it has to balance controlling spending measures and redctions in spending with considerations that take into account the weakness of the economy and high unemployment. One of the important considerations is that the private sector and banks faced with losses in the housing bubble are not likely to generate growth at this time, leaving growth dependent on government spending; which if cut too quickly could lead to declining GDP and even lower tax revenues with higher deficits. The government of prime minister Rajoy is faced with the difficult task of creating credibility in financial markets about controlling years of spending by regional governments during the housing boom, and at the same time applying prudence in not taking steps that would hurt the economy at a delicate time....

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IMF is taking on a new role as the staff of the G-20 nations. As the G-20 has no staff, no headquarters, no offices, the IMF is being asked to tke on this role.

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Under the current plan 5% of the IMF quotas will shift from overrepresented rich countries to developing countries, less than the 7% these countries wanted.

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Greece's national statistics agency Elstat shows data indicating a rapidly deteriorating Greek economy. The unemployment rate went up to 20.9% in November, up from 18.2 % the prior month, with the total number of unemployed at 1.029 million. Industrial output declined by 11.3% in December 2011 compared to the prior year. The unemployment rate is 48% for young people ages 15-24 for November 2011 compared to 35.6% in the prior year. For women the unemployment rate was 25.4% in November, compared to 17% the prior year. In the region of Attica, which includes Athens, the unemployment rate was 21.1% in November compared to 19.2% in October, and 13.9% the prior year. This creates new concern whether austerity measures will work and whether the Greek people can go through a decade of austerity programs, with debt still at 120% of GDP in 2020 under the program designed by the EU and the IMF, or whether there are other solutions that offer more hope of recovery.

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Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti, in an interview with Britain's Guardian newspaper, June 22, 2012, says the detailed blueprint for action will not come out of the meetings in Rome of European leaders at the end of June. But he added: "there will be some strong elements and a short road, I hope, short, a few months, to get from there to the overall project." Separately Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, said after meeting European financial leaders in Luxembourg: "A determined and forceful move towards complete European monetary union should be reaffirmed in order to restore faith. At the moment, the viability of the European monetary system is questioned." Monti is a former senior EU official, and Christine Lagarde was France's finance minister under president Sarkozy. The difference now compared to meetings in 2010, is the changes in France, Italy, and Spain, and at the IMF, with new leaders Hollande in France, Monti in Italy, and Rajoy in Spain, and Lagarde at the IMF, and a new context in that the austerity policies by themselves are seen as failing to produce the desired results. A further change in the dynamic is the win by Social Democrats in regional elections in Germany and Hollande opening a dialogue with the German Social Democrats. The dialogue with Merkel has been enhanced by appointing seasoned EU officials in key positions in the Hollande administration in anticipation of a tighter fiscal union in the EU....

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The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this. ...

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European leaders meeting in Brussels set Sunday July 12, 2015, as the final day by which Greece is expected to submit proposals and reach an agreement with the EU. All EU leaders will be present at the Sunday meeting at which Greece's postion as a member in the eurozone will be settled, and measures for humanitarian aid to Greece can be discussed. EU chief Juncker called Sunday July 12, 2015 the deadline date. Greece's finance minister Tsakalotos surprised European leaders by not having any proposals to submit. German chancellor Merkel said at a news conference- "There are only a few days left for a discussion on what's going to happen in the future. What we need now is a multi-annual program tht goes far beyond the program that we discussed ony 10 days ago." Experts at Bruegel research organization in Brussels say the ECB providing emergency financing is dependent on Greece coming to an agreement with the EU, and if no agreement is reached Greece's exit from the eurozone is very likely....

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Failure by EU leaders to take early and decisive action to reduce Greece's debt to sustainable levels in 2009. This was when the IMF report by Dutchman Bob Traa blew the cover off the Greek coverup of deteriorated finances. Policy missteps included ECB president Trichet and other EU leaders pushing austerity measures and not taking needed tough action on reducing the debt. By November 2011 a 50% reduction in debt with bondholders taking the losses is not enough to correct the situation. Greece's debt is discounted by 70% by Nov 2011. Analysts estimate an 85% reduction in Greek debt being necessary for Greece to pull through without a default.

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Public sector layoffs in Spain in 2012-2013 under the governments deficit reduction plan- as mandated under fiscal compact rules agreed to in the December 2012 eurozone meetings- will worsen Spain's severe unemployment rate of 25%. These public sector layoffs are only now taking place. Upto now local governments had helped offset rising layoffs in the private sector by preserving employment. The result will be a further increase in unemployment in Spain, creating a crisis of large proportions.