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The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
BP's failure in the Gulf Oil Spill and the Justice Department settlement in Nov. 2012
06/15/2010
The Justice Department filed criminal charges against engineers and managers at BP citing wanton and negligent conduct.
Linked Articles
In BP Indictments, U.S. Shifts to Hold Individuals Accountable
New York Times 11/15/2012
Oil Executives Try to Explain Differences From BPNew York Times 06/15/2010
Experts Roach, Grantham, Roubini and Shiller see serious risks of a double dip recession.
05/13/2010
Dangers of another bubble from zero interest rates which reward excessive risktaking, a blow to confidence levels from some sudden event, the eurozone crisis, and a fragile world economy that has not made the normal recovery, are cited
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market BubbleBusinessWeek 05/13/2010
How Elizabeth Warren at Harvard University and Profs. Sunstein and Thaler at the University of Chicago influenced the decision to setup a Consumer Financial Protection Agency.
06/20/2009
Elizabeth Warren has known economic advisor Summers for along time at Harvard, and Obama is a friend of Sunstein who wrote abook with Thaler, "Nudge," on the subject of consumer behaviour.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Critic Inspired New Consumer-Protection Agency
Wall Street Journal 06/20/2009
About Time: Regulation Based On Human NatureWall Street Journal 06/20/2009
Obama's Consumer Financial Protection Agency and the influence of consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren.
06/17/2009
The influence of Elizabeth Warren, who is aleading scholar in credit and economic distress, and a Professor at Harvard Law School, in the President's decision to setup aconsumer protection agency. The influence also of Prof. Sunstein at the University of Chicago Law School on Obama's ideas on fine print, consumer behaviour and protection.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Remarks on Financial Regulatory Reforms
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
Wall Street Critic Inspired New Consumer-Protection AgencyWall Street Journal 06/20/2009
The different approaches of Pfizer and Novartis for new drug research and development in 2009-2015
06/11/2009
Working with smaller R&D budgets and focussing the research on a few areas, collaboration with universities, and other ways to get more out of the R&D dollar.
Linked Articles
Pfizer Profit Declines 19% After Loss of Lipitor Patent
New York Times 05/01/2012
Novartis: Radically Remaking Its Drug BusinessBusinessWeek 06/11/2009
Sec. Geithner's regulatory reform for derivatives and areas of weakness.
05/15/2009
The NYT editorial and Prof Portnoy of the University of San Diego law school find weakness in the measure proposed, as it does not have the same rules for all derivatives. Lobbying continues to hinder effective legislation.
Linked Articles
Danger in Wall Street’s Shadows
New York Times 05/15/2009
New Rules for DerivativesNew York Times 05/15/2009
Interest rate swap contracts sold by banks to the city of Detroit in 2005 and the "kiko" derivative contracts sold by banks to exporters in S. Korea before the 2008 global financial crisis
04/03/2009
The huge losses suffered by Detroit and by exporters in S. Korea and how the issues raised were handled in the two places. What takes precedence fairness or contracts, how much of a contract has to be intelligible to the investor and the broader question of why banks needed to write such contracts or conduct business in this way which could hurt their reputation. An example is given by Floyd Norris of NYT where Bankers Trust reputation suffered badly in 1994 for selling such contracts to P&G.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/03/2009
'Safe Harbor' in Bankruptcy Upended in Detroit CaseNew York Times 12/23/2013
Child hunger in India and India's Food Security legislation in August 2013
03/13/2009
Food expert Rieff cites figures showing child malnutrition at over 40% in India for children under the age of 5 in 2009. A World Food Program report says 230 million people in India are hungry each year. India's Food Security legilation has to be seen in this context. Rieff says India is in danger of losing its demographic dividend as a result of child malnutrition. All developing countries can learn from each other and their programs to reduce child malnutrition, improve health care and vaccinations, and introduce healthy food and sanitary practices. Programs are in place in Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, India, and China.
Linked Articles
As Indian Growth Soars, Child Hunger Persists
New York Times 03/13/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
The untold story of civilians caught in the crossfire in the wars in places like Gaza and Afganistan that have lasted decades.
12/25/2008
A physiotherapist from Turin, Italy, who runs the Red Cross Rehabilitation Center in Afghanistan, and a wounded surgeon who loses his wife and child in the cross fire between militants and Israelis in Gaza City, both have an untold story of civilians in both places.
Linked Articles
A Foreign Face Beloved by Afghans of All Stripes
New York Times 12/25/2008
Despair and a Defiant Smile in a Gaza HospitalNew York Times 01/09/2009
Le Clezio and Chinua Achebe look at Nigeria
10/10/2008
Le Clezio looka at Nigeria during the British colonial period in "Onitsha." Onitsha is the second largest city in Nigeria after Lagos. Achebe offers a hometown writer's verson of Nigeria during the hopeful period after independence in the sixties and the struggles and strife of the decades following this.
Linked Articles
French Writer Wins Nobel Prize
New York Times 10/10/2008
Chinua Achebe, Famed Nigerian Writer, DiesWall Street Journal 03/22/2013
How good were the U.S. Federal Reserve's stress tests of 2012?
07/16/2008
Reilly questions the leveraging aspect of the Fed's 2002 stress test results as they leave U.S. banks leveraging at between 20-30 times capital, the situation that prevailed before the crisis. Experts including Anil Kashyap at the University of Chicago pointed out how the process of deleveraging works in reverse before the collapse of Lehman in 2008- for every $1 of bank losses the deleveraging cycle reduces bank lending by $20- $30.
Linked Articles
Stressing the Bank 'Stress Tests'
Wall Street Journal 03/14/2012
How Bad Will It Get on Wall Street?BusinessWeek 07/16/2008
Saudi Arabia's $600 billion investment plan in aluminum, chemicals, and new cities.
12/12/2007
What does the investment binge in Saudi Arabia mean in terms of how well its been thought through, the productive use of the money, will it create enough jobs, what it means for oil prices.
Linked Articles
The Construction Site Called Saudi Arabia
New York Times 01/20/2008
Saudi Industrial Drive Strains Oil-Export RoleWall Street Journal 12/12/2007
Increasing auto emisssions, coal fired plants and the extreme air pollution in Beijing and other cities in China
07/28/2010
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/16/2013
In China, Pollution Worsens Despite New EffortsNew York Times 07/28/2010
How America's need for low wage manufactured products is colliding with worker demands inside China.
06/03/2010
The beginnings of a Chinese workers movement for higher wages and better working conditions that has support within the universities, state run media and the government. The government sees the need to build up domestic consumption as austerity measures in western countries threaten the sustainability of the old export model; and sees higher worker wages make sense in this context.
Linked Articles
The Rise of a Chinese Worker's Movement
BusinessWeek 06/10/2010
Why Apple and Others Are Nervous About FoxconnBusinessWeek 06/03/2010
Why the Obama health care law gets an "F" grade from the Dean of Harvard Medical School
11/18/2009
The failure to replace the "fee-for-service" system in favor of capitated payments is cited as one of the main reasons. The other reasons are it does not resolve the issues of introducing competition in quality of care and cost, and continues the practices that disguise the true cost of care with a highly fragmented system of care. In a op-ed, Jeffrey Flier, Dean of the Harvard Medical School, gives a detailed account for the reason for his grading. A poorly drafted or incomplete law says Flier can make things worse, citing the example of the health care law in Massachusetts which is driving up costs, as it does not change the old dysfunctional system's key features such as "fee-for service," and instead tries to build a new system on broken foundations. Pearlstein in the Washington Post says the Obama health care law has addressed the "fee-for-service" problem, but this is really not the case, and Flier's reasoning may be the clue to the deeper problem for the Obama health care law.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein: Eat your broccoli, Justice Scalia - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/01/2012
Health 'Debate' Deserves a Failing GradeWall Street Journal 11/18/2009
Aspects of the Reform proposal that were influenced by the work of Prof Sunstein and Prof Thaler at the University of Chicago.
06/17/2009
Sunstein and Thaler's book "Nudge" talks about the role psychology plays, and behavoural aspects play in human behaviour. The President is a friend of Sunstein from their days at the University of Chicago law school. The onsumer Financial Protection Agency and its role, says Zweig, takes some ideas from Prof. Sunstein's work to protect consumers.
Linked Articles
Obama’s Financial Reform Plan: The Condensed Version
Wall Street Journal 06/17/2009
About Time: Regulation Based On Human NatureWall Street Journal 06/20/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
The huge downsizing in the auto industry creates the need for big government supported initatives in retraining.
05/21/2009
Vicotr Brown and the 60,000 former workers at GM's BUick City have worked at GM all their lives, and can't imagine anything else. How does one get them from joining the ranks of the permanently unemployed, is a challenge for the government. THe labor underutilization rate expected to reach 20% for 2010, could threaten the economic recovery, and put everything at risk.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
The Last Holdouts Cast Their Lot With G.M.New York Times 05/21/2009
Steven Rattner of Quadrangle, private equity firm, heads the team that is advising Obama on GM and Chrysler.
04/06/2009
So far Rattner is getting good points for his advice and his work for the President. His bacground at Brown University, the NYTimes, Lehman, Morgan Stanley, Lazard and Quadrangle.
Linked Articles
Rattner Rises as Obama's Mr. Fix-It
Wall Street Journal 04/06/2009
Obama’s Top Auto Industry TroubleshooterNew York Times 04/06/2009
Peter Eavis thinks the Geithner plan isn't based on sound logic.
03/23/2009
If only the confidence and liquidity were an issue then maybe the Geithner Public Private Investment Program plan might work. But says Eavis, the underlying price structure for these mortgage securities is gone with this crisis,so that the recovery in their price for banks to avoid huge losses is going to be elusive. He cites Credit Sights which estimates losses of US banks through 2010 of $250- $450 billion.
Linked Articles
Treasury’s Got Bill Gross on Speed Dial
New York Times 06/21/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs SpeculatorsWall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Money managers Grantham, Rodriguez and Scheiff fears about the economy and IMF Chief Economist Rajan's concern.
01/02/2009
Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago, told the 2005 annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers economists and finance professionals, that he thought the world had become much riskier with the changes in financial markets in the 18 year Greenspan tenure. He was received rather coldly by others, including former Treasury Secretary Summers. Concerns expressed by Grantham, Rodriguez and Scheiff about these and other problems became louder by the time of the Rajan paper at Jackson Hole.
Linked Articles
Mr. Rajan Was Unpopular (But Prescient) at Greenspan Party
Wall Street Journal 01/02/2009
The Doomsayers Who Got It RightWall Street Journal 01/02/2009
What the best way to get results for the stimulus, the view of state governors, and of green project advocates.
12/24/2008
Views of state governors and green advocates on how best to attack the problem raised for stimulus spending that would work to meet short term job goals and longer term goals for energy and transportation to meet sustainability criteria and design better ways to live and work.
Linked Articles
For Stimulus Plan, Obama Team Weighing 'Green' Jobs vs. Traditional Projects
Washington Post 12/24/2008
Jon S. Corzine - A Bold Stimulus Package -- $1 Trillion Bold -- Is NeededWashington Post 12/24/2008
The poverty rate and wealth gap between rich and poor in New York city and in China and the rest of the world.
08/27/2008
How the New York City experience compares with China's.
Linked Articles
Poverty Rate Declines in New York
New York Times 08/27/2008
World Bank Finds More People Live in Steep PovertyNew York Times 08/27/2008
The Class of 1977 in China -with the first competitive university entrance exams in 12 years- and Li Keqiang
01/06/2008
China's new prime minister in 2013 is from the Class of 1977, when there was a huge burst of energy as students looked with great excitement to gaining knowledge after a decade when learning and books were suppressed.
Linked Articles
1977 Exam Opened Escape Route Into China’s Elite
New York Times 01/06/2008
Next Premier Came of Age in Era of OpennessWall Street Journal 11/16/2012
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