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More games are being played in stadiums behind closed doors as in Japanese baseball or canceled altogether as in Italy. The coronavirus is leading to restrictions on mass gatherings, both in live entertainment and in sports.  Japan has changed its sports calendar postponing most events. Switzerland banned gatherings of over 1000 people, and France suspended events with gatherings of over 5000 people.  There is an acceptance of the fact that social distancing reduces the speed and extent of the spread of the virus, with countries that acted with quarantines and restrictions having a slower spread. This is now the case in China. In South Korea the lack of effective quarantine has led to spread of the virus. The extra time gained from slowing down the spread is important to let hospitals and medical systems cope. Things can be less intense for the medical community which is important for all countries.  Players and performers also are reluctant to be exposed to the virus in the current situation, particularly in locker rooms and other locations in stadiums. ...

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Of the $19 billion in aid to farmers for the coronavirus, $16 billion of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program, goes in direct payments to farmers and rancher with checks going out end of May. Another $3 billion goes to mass purchases of dairy, meat and produce that will be distributed through food banks. Faced with loss of sales with restaurants and schools closed, and disruptions in deliveries to grocery stores, farmers in the U.S. have stopped or slowed production. As a result huge quantities of food that can't be sold are being destroyed. Plowing under thousands of acres of vegetables, dumping millions of gallons of milk, and destroying eggs. In addition to this aid Agriculture Secretary Perdue says the department is using funds set aside under the larger coronavirus relief aid package of $2 trillion for the U.S., and funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation. Mr. Perdue is himself a farmer from Georgia, who was governor for eight years. These funds are separate from the $28 billion to farmers being distributed by USDA to offset losses from loss of sales to China. USDA plans to make monthly purchases of $100 million each of fresh produce, dairy products and meat, and work with the nation's food distributors to assemble a pre-approved box of food to be given out at food banks and other outlets. ...

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There are 2.3 million federal workers outside of the US Post Office and military. WSJ analysis shows more than half of the Congressional Districts with the largest proportion of federal workers are Republican districts. How do you get these Republicans to sign off for layoffs in their own states and districts asks the WSJ. DOGE faces a tough fight on this. The other issues are about getting the work of government done where the layoffs to cut costs are done in a way that reduces the productivity of workers with conflicting goals and instructions so that important work doesn't get done. US Treasury's Fiscal Data Site shows the US federal government spent $6.9 trillion in 2024 or 23% of the US GDP. The Government Accountability Office last year issued a report that fraud, waste losses were about $521 billion, this is about 8 percent of the US federal spending in 2024. To get this done, to cut waste and fraud requires a patient effort which also does a job of convincing the people of America that the cost cutters are doing a good job, cutting fat not bone or muscle. DOGE led by Musk require much patient effort - loud, high profile actions could hurt with distractions.  It is different on runaway illegal migration and 490,000 deaths from fentanyl over 12 years, where action cannot be loud enough to get America's voice heard and action taken to prevent any more deaths. Biden and Democrats signed up in 2024 to Republican Senator Lankford's bill, so that it means both Republicans and  Democrats now have to deliver on this.   ...

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German chancellor Merkel says after a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Kerry, after disagreements over NSA spying activities- "Mutual interest will be the motor for finding common solutions step-by-step. We talk about such questions of NSA openly even when there are differences." In the first address to parliament as head of the new CDU-SPD coalition, Merkel said mass collection of phone data by NSA only led to mutual mistrust and in fact diminished rather than increased security. Germans are even more sensitive than the U.S. about such spying after traumatic experience under Gestapo and Stasi secret police during 1931-2090.

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Biden gives a rousing call to the Nation, on what he has achieved for America and its workers and families, for the people of 51 states, and what the tasks are for the future to 2035. It surpasses the State of the Union address 2024 in the vigor and importance of his message, 76 days before a national election to decide the future of the Nation and the World. Key parts of the speech selected by Lyrarc, on Infrastructure above and Manufacturing here with 800,000 new Manufacturing jobs created. "Because of you and so many electeds out there, American manufacturing is back. Where the hell does it say we wouldn’t lead the world in manufacturing. Eight-hundred-thousand new manufacturing jobs. Our Republican friends and others made sure they’d go abroad to get the cheapest labor. We used to import products and export jobs. Now we export American products and create American jobs, right here in America, where jobs belong. With every new job, with every new factory, pride and hope is being brought back to communities throughout the country that were left behind. You know you’re from it, many of you. You know what it’s like when that factory closed where your mother, your father, your grandmother, grandfather worked. And now you’re back, providing once again, proving that Wall Street didn’t build America, the middle class built America, and unions—unions—built the middle class.  It’s been my view since I came to the Senate and that’s why I’m proud to have been the first President to walk a picket line and be labeled the most pro-union President in history. And I accept it. That’s a fact. Because when unions do well, we all do well.  ...

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Even though ambitious targets are being set by the government raising from 50 million to 80 million in 3 years the target for new LPG connections to shift rural households from firewood to natural gas use, more needs to be done. The head of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister Modi of India. Bibek Debroy, asks questions about the Ujjwalla program in India to shift rural homes from firewood to gas use. Is the fixed subsidy of Rs 1600 enough? Is a 5kg cylinder what the market wants instead of the 14.2 kg cylinder? Are there externalities that favor use of firewood? Will rural households replace the cylinders at this subsidy level because the costs are still high?  The PMUY, or Pradhan Mantri Ujjwalla Yojana was launched in India in 2016 in Ballia, Uttar Pradesh under the Modi administration. The target for LPG gas use for firewood using households was 15 million in the first year and 50 million for the next 3 years. The government pays Rs. 1600 subsidy for a new connection reimbursing the oil company making the connection. The refill and cost of stove, is the rural household's responsibility. Separate guidelines were made for urban households. The government website mygov.in shows 41 million households have used Ujjwalla to get LPG and stop firewood use. The new target of 80 million means the goal post is moving higher. The 2011 Census is cited showing the rural household use moved up from 6% to 12% by 2011. For All India it was from 17% to 29%. About 100 million rural households use firewood, 62.5% of all rural households in 2011. A big issue is how this affects the health of women using firewood for cooking, and who collects this firewood. Firewood is still cheaper says Debroy, and there are negative externalities associated with firewood not understood enough. Changing the face of rural India is a project in motion, with new issues to tackle, new hurdles to overcome, every bit of progress showing how much more needs to be done. ...

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US president Biden will give his farewell address on Jan 15 at 8 pm Eastern Time. It marks a vital point in a five decade career of public service, unprecedented in US history. Its impact is huge coming at the time of Covid pandemic and at a turning point in rebuilding America's infrastructure. What Biden missed was that migration needed to be brought under control taking immediate action as a top priority in 2021, not getting blindsided by the fact that Republicans were using strong language and the issue had become politicized. Biden did this for tariffs with China in 2020 keeping most of the DJT tariffs, he could have done the same keeping the basic border policies of the DJT administration and negotiating with Republicans in 2021 when he was in a good position to have legislation passed. Which he did late by Feb 2024 with Senator Lankford and Republicans but failed to get it through in the primary election season, by then too late. ...

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Keir Starmer and the Labor party's plans for Britain are laid out in this interview in The Observer. He says "This will be a bold and reforming Labor government bringing about real change, that I hope will be felt through the generations." On the 13 years of Tory Conservatives in government- "It is important that everybody asks themselves: am I better off now than when this government started 13 years ago? Is the health service working better? Have my wages gone up in real terms? Is the criminal justice system better? Is anything better? And the answer to those questions is going to be no, no, no, no, no, no." On change even though Labor will be fiscally savy and prudent- "So therefore we need change. We have to be the party of change. Are we going to inherit a very broken country including the economy? Yes, we are. I accept that. But I don't accept that that means we can't inject real purpose and meaning into change." Starmer wants to get the economy of Britain growing again. He plans to do this by making Britain a world leader in a green industrial revolution and through redistributing power to the regions to take advantage of opportunities to tackle climate change. "Clean. energy by 2030 is critically essential. And we will be part of the global race in renewables." "There is a theory of growth that you grow London and the southeast even faster and redistribute to the rest of the country. I reject that model, as I want growth in every part of the country." Home ownership for first timers- "I want Labor to be the party of home ownership." Starmer wants to build 300,000 houses every year and first time buyers given preference, no foreign buyers.  ...

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India's Ministry of Finance predicts GDP growth of between 7 and 7.5% for 2018-2019, after faltering GDP growth in 2017-2018 following action on demonetization and introduction of a national Goods and Service Tax. The IMF predicts growth of 7.4% for India in 2018 compared to 6.8% in China in 2018, with growth of 7.8% predicted for India in 2019.  Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian says there are "robust and broad based signs of revival," though risks remain in rising oil prices and inflation. The level is below what it could be, yet robust considering the policy actions taken by the government for the long term such as the nationwide GST implementation, which was taken up by previous administrations of both parties in government but never implemented till 2017. In addition the government faces the tasks of recapitalization of banks, the issues of job creation as manufacturing in India in the global context is only beginning to take shape, and agrarian distress.  The new Budget takes up the issues facing rural areas of the country by compensating farmers to the extent of 150% of agricultural cost and introducing the largest health care security scheme in the world for poor families. This comes a year before new national elections. The Modi administrations's focus appears to be for taking steps that will generate growth over the long term and learning from errors, yet being bold enough to take the necessary action based on experience.   ...

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The Fed gets tougher on "too big to fail" but how tough? Does it have the guts to go after this problem asks Peter Eavis. If he does Bernake would go down in history as a hero says Eavis. Meanwhile Fed Governor Tarullo clearly point to the utterly inconceivable fact that after a crisis of these proportions with large banks being bailed out, the remaining banks and financial institutions are larger than before the crisis. And the banking lobby has stalled regulation to control the problems in derivatives trading and other areas. Splitting up or downsizing the banks and separating their social function as deposit takers in the economy from their trading desks and investment activity, is being advocated by central bankers from Volcker to Mervyn King. See links.

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Xi Jinping visited Hong Kong in 2017 and again this year. Jinping wanted to see Hong Kong integrated with mainland China after years of British rule and a transition period in which control remained with Beijing. This has happened after protests that sought to maintain Hong Kong's special status collapsed with huge differences on both sides. Jinping says "no country on earth would allow unpatriotic and even treasonous or traitorous people to take power." He stated his view on this trip that "political power must be in the hands of patriots." 2022 marks 25 years since the handover to China of Hong Kong by Britain in 1997. The period of transition set was 50 years. It could be said that the speed of China's integration with the economies of the US and Germany allowed by Clinton, Bush, Obama, Schroeder  and Merkel may have unwittingly determined the duration of the transition to integration with China from 50 to 25 years. In 1997 China was just beginning the transition to a market economy- 50 year seemed a long distance away.  The Clinton, Bush, Obama and Merkel years accelerated China's integration into the ports of Los Angeles and Hamburg for manufactured imports at a breathtaking pace eventually leading to the collapse of the relationship as American and European workers were ignored and communities depending on factories in parts of US and Europe were thrown out of work. With it collapsed the arrangements of Hong Kong as China by 2022 was economically already where it thought it would be in 2047. Shenzen region's economy's size exceeded the Hong Kong economy. China no longer needed Hong Kong as a entry point for foreign technology and capital. Hong Kong had lost relevance as a city state from the British period with British values for sons of the veterans of the Communist revolution of the nineteen thirties and forties, one of whom was Xi Jinping. ...

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Bret Stephens of the WSJ puts the -question what is Pakistan? And looks at possible answers. Starting with Mohammed Ali Jinnah, who he says had aquite different idea from that of the Taliban. He quotes Jinnah 'you will find that in the course of time Hindus would cease to be Hindus, and Muslims cease to be Muslims , not in the religious sense, because this is the personal faith of each individual, but in the political sense as citizens of the State." His idea was of religion as apolitical identification of the state as opposed to asecular idea like that of India, not of a religious state in a religious sense.This Bret Stephens says is why a majority of Pakistanis have rejected religious parties at the polls but still find the idea of political religion identification appealing. He sees these aims as immodest or overreaching in the modern world of technology, mass communications and economic deveopment. Only by remaining backward can such aspirations be supported because economic development, technology and mass communications can only supplant such religious politcal identification with aspirations for higher standards of living. Witness the current general elections in India with 730 million people voters. The common driving force for all parties is how they can deliver on the economic aspirations of people for better living standards, better infrastructure, and better services such as health care and education. And communal parties like the BJP also have to shift their focus to delivering on these aspirations to get support. So Bret Sephens makes the point quite effectively when he says that the threat to Pakistan is existential, so he would like to put the point existentially - just accept simple countryhood, or face nothingness. ...

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New Sony CEO, Kazuo Hirai, plans to cut 10,000 jobs, about 6% of its total employees, over the next 2 fiscal years ending March 2014. Sony's television business has faced 8 years of losses, and the entire electronics business has faced 4 consecutive years of losses. The price competition and the high price of the yen has hurt Sony's sales and margins. This has affected the entire Japanese electronics industry, which has suffered consecutive years of losses, including Toshiba and Panasonic. Hirai is changing Sony's strategy in the television business. Instead of targeting a goal of 40 million in sales for television sets, he is cutting this in half to 20 million and reducing the size of its television sales operations. Sony's plan appears to be to focus on its strengths in new technologies and maufacturing, including the new 4 K technology, which would have to be adapted to mass market from its current specialized application. By doing this Sony would not have to compete on price in the manner it does today with Samsung and other Asian brands which have closed the gap in conventional technologies. Hirai's employee cuts follow the 16,000 job cuts made by Howard Stringer in 2008, during the global financial crisis. During March 2011 Sony had 168,200 employees....

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Reducing inequality and giving labor a larger share of national income to increase consumer demand, allowing more immigration, and targeting a higher inflation rate are unconventional measures necessary to increase growth as monetary policy reaches the limit of its effectiveness at near zero interest rates, says Galston. Growth in U.S. since 2000 is about 1.8% annually on average compared to 3.6% in the postwar years to 2000. Growth since 2000 rarely reaches 3% a year. Robert Gordon has pointed out the factors of a slowdown in mass education, rapidly aging population, rising inequality and increasing public debt as reasons for slower growth in the future. Glaeser and Summers also support this view. There is also the possibility that the secular stagnation idea suggested by Hansen in 1938 after years of low growth, comes at a point when growth is about to pick up pace as happened during and after the war.

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The election win of Sebastian Pinera in Chile marks a shift in Latin America away from left parties. Economic conditions improved initially with the left parties in Brazil, Chile and Argentina, following currency crises and debt problems. The commodities boom helped the left party governments finance social programs which increased their popularity. The middle class also benefited with increased consumer spending and a growing economy. All this changed as the commodities boom collapsed and state finances were stretched thin in Brazil and Argentina. Corruption scandals, and decline in economic growth exposed serious problems in delivery of services, infrastructure and other areas which had been neglected. Voters decided to turn to alternatives and parties from centre right with Macri in Argentina and Pinera in Chile as a consequence.   The striking fact is that instead of shifting to the right leaders of the centre right, Macri in Argentina and Pinera in Chile have decided it is best to keep some of the best initiatives and achievements of the previous governments that have created a broader middle class in Chile and Argentina. Pinera says he will preserve some of Bachelet's initiatives in bringing broader access to education and health care. In this sense Latin America has matured so that the sharp conflicts have been set aside to set a more conciliatory tone and work together. Compared to Chile and Argentina Brazil is different in that corruption scandals affect most parties and there is a general loss of confidence in Congress and politicians across the spectrum. Brazil is looking at a situation in which a whole generation of politicians would have to give way to a new generation for the public to gain a renewal of confidence- so deep is the loss of confidence.  ...

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Chuck Hagel on the need to bring in more countries to handle difficult situations such as the one the US faces in Iraq and Afghanistan. He says thats why the world now has a G20 and not a G8. No country can face these situations alone especially when there is a mutual interest of many countries in these situations. He calls it a 20th century reaction to 21st century realities. He says the 2 wars cost more than a trillion dollars. One sees a new respect for international institutions such as the UN, World Bank, IMF, and GATT renamed WTO, even with Republicans. Chuck Hagel's point makes a lot of sense and is generally accepted in people's understanding of the situation from the Defence Department to the Administration, and among respected politicians. It is putting it onto practice that is the hard part. As Hagel puts it, it is important to remember what Lyndon Johnson told Senatior Russell, that he knew the Vietnam war could not be won, and yet he did not want to pull out and be the first American President to lose a war. This is a contradiction because if it can't be won its going to be lost under the next President or the one after that, in this case Gerald Ford. Hagel says it not ours to win and lose. Here he points to the interconnectedness and shared interests of all nations. Every great threat to the U.S., whether it is economic, terrorism, nuclear weapons proliferation, health pandemics, environmental degradation, energy or water and food shortages, is also a threat to global partners ansd rivals. So its wrong to view engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan through the lens that says its about winning or losing. And he asks win what? Too many cultural, ethnic and religious dynamics are involved for any one nation to control. Hagel concludes by saying that the US, the Defense Department, the Obama administration, must get this right, as it affects the global architecture for the next generation. Fresh thinking is needed. Single issue engagement is obsolete in the 21st century in dealing with global partners or rivals, or countries with aspects of both....

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Mass firings of government workers and closing of government offices created a sense of upheaval with the style of Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency. Musk says his disinterest in the workings of the government, and effort to do too much too quickly hurt his efforts, and the distraction has cost Tesla with loss of market and loss of loyalty of customers put off by DOGE style actions. Some actions were controversial such as asking federal government workers to list their 5 accomplishments each week or be fired, and are being withdrawn. Overall the media coverage created more miscomprehension for the president's goals and actions. President Trump has now distanced himself from Musk and Musk has withdrawn from the Washington scene. New reports suggest Tesla engineers now working for GM are building new EV battery technologies to drastically reduce the cost of EV's by 2028. One such report came out this week  shown in Lyrarc.com. Tesla imports its electric car batteries from China which could put it at a disadvantage in the current tariffs environment. German EV's market is collapsing in China so that Tesla faces many changes in just 6 months.  ...

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Inozemtsev of the Institute of Post-Industrial Studies in Moscow, asks the question wht if the Russian economy shows no growth in 2017, and 2015-2016 become the beginning of a serious downturn. If oil prices remain low for an extended period as now looks likely with factors such as shale oil technologies, Iranian oil, and Saudi policy, playing an increasingly long term role, Russia could face some of the problems former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, other business leaders including head of Sberbank, warned about. A major problem that Inozemtsev points to is the change in the business climate for foreign investment in 2012-2016 as the Russian economy looks more inward, and the departure of many foreign companies. During the period 2000-2008, a major boost to the economy came from foreign investment which brought with it management and technological improvements. No emerging market country, including China, can have a bright future without access to new technologies and investments from foreign investment. The current period starting in 2009 stands in sharp contrast to the earlier period with the Russian economy lacking the boost from foreign investment, facing capital outflows, and international conflicts creating a long term effect on oil prices. Russia needed time to move its economy away from commodity dependence through technological improvements and investment, yet this does not appear to be happening, raising serious questions....

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India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said at an Atlantic Council event in Washington D.C. that estimates have been made of what the British took out of India over two centuries and this has come to $45 trillion in today's value. India suffered humiliation for two centuries from 1756 to 1947 with British rule. The country was "bled" and this was first documented by a member of parliament Dadabhai Naoroji in 1901 in London in his book explaining the causes of India's deep poverty in his book with the title- Poverty and Un-British Rule in India. For the first time detailed financial figures were put together on what Britain took out of India and India's Mohandas Gandhi says this was how he learned about how much India suffered economically under British rule with the neglect of agriculture, the peasants and landless laborers making up the vast population of India. Taxation was burdensome on a poor population during most of the period. Railways and mass communication only helped keep the vast region together under British rule and most of the budget went into security and policing for the Empire. Investment in industry or agriculture was neglected for most of the nineteenth century and half of the twentieth. Strangely the first Indian edition of Naoroji's book was only in 1962 with most Indians unaware of what had happened and where this was first documented. Even Cambridge educated Nehru looked at the railways and mass communication as British contributions to india when in actual fact this was of a strategic security aspect for the British in a vast region, and little was done to improve the standard of living of the people in the villages who worked in subsistence agriculture. Gandhi's task was to increase awareness at the grassroots level of the condition of the country. Something he never hesitated to do even writing to the Viceroy who was in charge directly showing how the budget in the 1920's was entirely lacking in any funds for India's development. This letter can be seen today in the Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad, the museum for Gandhi in his home state of Gujarat. One of the lesser known facts about the independence struggle is that Gandhi wrote a little book in 1910 with title "Hind Swaraj" on a steamship making its way back to South Africa from Britain where Gandhi led a deputation for rights of Indian coolie laborers in South Africa. I picked up this book at the original home of Gandhi and his parents in Porbandar, India, recently. In this book "Hind Swaraj" written in 1910 we find astonishingly all the details of the planned struggle for independence that were to happen over the next 20 years. In 1930 with a new edition Gandhi wrote that he had followed this unchanged for 20 years and would change nothing except one line in the book. The book in 1910 was promptly banned by the government of Bombay, yet Indian editions appeared soon afterward. It is written in question and answer format with Gandhi himself posing the questions which he answers, some challenging his view of India, Britain, Indians and the British. He did not blame the British, and called for Indians to take responsibility for letting the British rule in India happen and what was the best way out.  ...

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As stimulus money reaches factories making products like hybrid buses, another trend is working to undo the positive effects. States are cutting back on their orders as they face budget shortfalls. See link to states budget shortfalls. The New Flyer hybrid bus fatory in St Cloud, Minnesota, is one such factory. The Chicago Transit Authority used some of the stimulus money to buy 58 hybrid electric buses. At the same time Chicago had to put aside plans to order 140 more buses using state money which now has disappeared. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities these effects of undoing, with one hand giving and another taking away are acting out across the economy. While the stiluus law cut federal taxes to put more money into the economy, about 30 states have raised taxes according to the Center. The Stimulus provides $27.5 billion in federal money on highway projects, but according to the American Road and Transport Builders Association, 19 states are planning to cut their highway spending in 2009. Even as the Stimulus provides $8.4 billion for mass tranisit, tranist systems are facing cutbacks in service and capital spending. Says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, and author of a paper called "The State and Local Drag on the Stimulus," these cutbacks and the tax increases at the state and local levels are heading in the direction of offsetting much of the Stimulus impact....

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Making the shift to smaller cars and putting its money where its mouth is meant converting Ford from a large vehicle company to a company that makes a lot of smaller cars, and this meant Ford would have to convert to smaller cars a lot of its truck and SUV plants and close some of the other plants. Alan Mulally is doing just that as he moves to give Ford a completely new direction What is not surprising but is still more than a bit disconcerting is the skepticism he is meeting from executives inside the company that Ford can only make money building larger vehicles even in the face of a market that is moving in the opposite direction. So again and again Alan is having to ask the question "what does a sustainable Ford Motor look like?" Shows that the American car companies are not only caught with the wrong bag of product mix but are in some kind of culture shock as the ground below them is changing. Alan also is focused on a global market almost as though he realizes that from now on there is only a global market to deal with not the sort of American market that existed in the past, so he reminds other Ford executives that the global market share of larger vehicles is only 15%, and as if to sound incredulous asks them and you want us to continue to invest limited resources in that market?...

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Andrew Stuttaford's excellent review of a book on the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany. In early 2010, the out of print book, "When Money Dies," by Adam Fergusson was trading for four figure sums. It describes life under hyperinflation in Germany and the events leading to it, the efforts to find a solution, and the collapse of the German economy with the worldwide great depression. The book describes the death of the German mark, with 20 marks needed to buy one British pound in 1914, going to 310 billion in late 1923! The story starts with the onset of war in 1914, and the fateful German decision to fund the war effort largely through debt and the printing presses. What exacerbated the situation was the relatively shallow capital markets in Germany, the creation of 'loan banks' funded by a printing press used by the central bank, and the muffling of all information. The stock markets were closed during the war and foreign exchange rates were not published. The destruction of the war, revolution, protests, imposition of reparations by the victorious powers, and terrotorial occupation worsened the situation. The efforts of central bank president, Rudolf Havenstein, to prevent mass unemployment by devaluing the currency to keep exports competitive, worked only for a time. In the end, says Fergusson, the music stopped. Lacking a reliable pricing mechanism and faced with huge strains, including the onset of the worldwide depression, the whole German economy stopped functioning at even the most basic level. The whole economy was reduced to barter. Rent was payed with butter and lumps of coal were bartered for something else. The only time an economy was reduced to barter in recent times (in the last 2 decades) was the situation in Argentina after a sharp devaluation. The Russian economy also faced a trying period in recent years with the collapse of communism and a collapse of the currency. And the Asian economies faced a difficult period during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. But nothing compares with what happened in Weimar Germany. The book was originally written for a British audience at a time of rapid inflation in the 1970's, and it reminded readers of the connection between the quantity of money in circulation and price stability. Financial crises play out in different ways in different periods, but it is a sobering warning for the need for prudence in financial affairs, avoiding excesses, the need for global cooperation and a measure of peaceful coexistence in world affairs that enables financial systems to work. With excesses in asset bubbles of the stock market or housing kind, bad loans in the financial system, overleveraging in the financial system, lack of reserves, or huge trade deficits, posing the new types of risks in today's environment. Bad loans in the financial system caused problems in Japan in the past and pose risks in China today, overleveraging caused problems in the US in 2008, lack of reserves in S. Korea in 1997, a collapse of the currency in Russia in the 1990's, and a sharp devaluation with a lack of reserves in Argentina. Too much money in the system, as in China today with the sharp increase in bank lending as part of the stimulus following the 2008 crisis, can distort the functioning of the financial system with excesses in real estate speculation and overproduction. The nature of the crises are different but all have a common factor of tolerance for excesses over a long period and a lack of prudence, exacerbated by international tensions and wars that weaken a country's finances. The twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are estimated to cost a trillion dollars each and this can only exacerbate the finances in the US, when coupled with other factors such as bad real estate loans in the financial system, and huge trade deficits....

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There are about 2.4 million workers on American farms. 44% of them are undocumented workers says the Department of Labor.  They do jobs such as picking the fruits and vegetables that are part of the food supply. Deporting them all will increase prices of farm products as harvesting fruits and vegetables will be difficult. During the Eisenhower administration in 1953 deportation plan large growers in California and New Mexico used seasonal agricultural labor from Mexico, and the nation's food supply of vegetables and fruits depended on these workers. These companies lobbied hard for ways to keep these workers. On the other side were smaller farm owners who used fewer migrant workers. The complication this time 2024 is that unlike in 1953 under Eisenhower mass deportation when the border was otherwise peaceful, in 2024 the US has faced a decade unprecedented in its history of flows of fentanyl and drugs across the southern border. The deportation is about migrants who are not easily integrated culturally into the US, about the dangers of illegal entry in such large numbers that it disturbs the quiet life of the small towns and cities in the US. The US needs immigrants but in a planned way with legal entry, and no flows of drugs across the Border, that protects the American people and serves America's interests.    ...

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In this thoughtful essay Bob Davis of the WSJ asks whether the decision of the Clinton administration to admit China into the World Trade Organization was a bad one for the U.S.  Mr. Clinton in 2000 tried to persuade Congress citing words of president Woodrow Wilson that of a dream "of a world full of free markets, free elections, and free peoples working together."  Every year China would have its most favored nation status renewed with help from supporters in Congress. After WTO entry this was not necessary. Chinese leaders saw the entry into WTO as a way to knock down trade barriers, to act a wrecking ball for the planned economy, to give the economy a big boost.  In 1994 China was a relatively backward economy with 60% of the population living on less than $1.90 a day. Hard to imagine today.  Not everyone was convinced that it was good for the U.S. This included a trade attorney who had tackled a huge trade deficit with Japan in the Reagan period- Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative negotiating with the Japanese. His prediction was that no job in America would be safe once China entered the WTO, that China would become a dominant trading nation.  Robert Cassidy, 73, trade negotiator for president Clinton looks back on that time and says that he regrets what has happened, that all his work night and a day only benefited business and hurt workers. David Autor, MIT economist and his colleagues,  in a later study documented loss of 2.4 million jobs to Chinese competition between 1999 and 2011, in many manufacturing towns dotting the landscape of America, particularly in the midwestern states. And the expectation that the higher economic growth would lead to less political control did not turn out to be true.  In the process multinationals rushed to China after WTO entry and China became the world's manufacturing floor. By 2013 China's per capita income reached $7000, after years of fast GDP growth approaching 10% a year.  About 400 million Chinese were lifted out of poverty from living on less than $1.90 per day from 1999 to 2011, according to the World Bank. A big problem was that the U.S. did not plan for the change from WTO entry. No resources were allocated for the plan to let American workers adjust through worker retraining and special trade handicapped income support, to allow for a slow planned shift. Instead the pace of growth was faster than that which the U.S. faced with the Japanese export offensive in the eighties. China experienced double digit growth after 2000. The irony is that the Republican administrations that followed Clinton followed a policy of free trade to the advantage of China's state run economy when working class Americans voted mostly for the Democratic Party. Little was done and little said in the media from Democrats and Republicans in Congress and the establishment during this time even after Mr. David Autor documented the effects of trade in the U.S.  Till Mr. Trump recognizing the alienation in communities hit by job losses from trade upended American politics, shifted this part of the electorate to the Republican base. Mr. Lighthizer's view is that complaints about China should be left out of WTO because it is naive to tackle it that way. With a $375 billion China trade deficit for 2017 the challenge has to be met in a different way, and the U.S. has to rely on regaining its economic strength within a fair trading framework. Having negotiated with the Japanese Mr. Lighthizer sees the approach adopted then as the one right for today. During the long negotiations Lighthizer is said to have received many negotiating positions of the Japanese signifying no change in long sessions. He once simply made a paper plane and sent it right back, in one of these sessions. He meant that the U.S. was serious about reversing the imbalance in trade. ...