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Lower volatility in oil prices as a result of a new stream of shale oil supplies at competitive prices is good for oil producers and for consumers. This report in the WSJ shows that volatility and swings in oil prices have gone down with the ability of shale producers to respond to price signals or geopolitical situations and increase supplies. Shale producers can increase supplies in months compared to the years it would take for oil producers in offshore drilling. The new technologies in shale rigs have tripled production since 2011 for the same number of rigs operating in the U.S. Permian Basin from West Texas to New Mexico. The core producers can now supply and be profitable at $40 a barrel.  Supply cuts from OPEC and Russia as currently the policy of both countries mean inventories do not rise too high. And geopolitical problems such as Yemeni attacks on Saudi oil facilities, the reinstated sanctions on Iran by the Trump administration that reduce oil supplies, Venezuela's problems, can be met by increased supplies from the U.S. shale industry in a short time to prevent inventories from dropping too much.      ...

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US president DJT is allowing sales into the markets in the US that process heavy Venezuelan oil so that the money can be deposited into an account that will be used for the rebuilding of Venezuela's economy and for the people of Venezuela. "This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States."

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The Trump administration proposes a zero policy for Iranian oil imports which says the U.S. will grant zero exemptions to countries importing Iranian oil.  Big importers China and India are likely to resist this policy.

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DJT raises issue of NATO countries Turkey Hungary and Slovakia others buying Russian oil and gas + EU trade with China while asking for US help. Britain is a NATO country expanding trade with China while being strident about Russia. Germany has over two decades built economic relations with China through a period of Russian attacks on Ukraine including the Scholz administration approving China's stake in the port of Hamburg. India has been singled out by the EU and US, and by DJT with high tariffs while Britain and Germany carry on expanding trade with China. DJT believes China's support has emboldened Russia in its policy in Ukraine including pausing peace negotiations.

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IEA-oil surplus declines for 2026 with overhang of sanctioned oil at seat that is 15% of supplies. Gas prices at pump drop to as low as $1.99 a gallon in some states in the US.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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Oil prices in the U.S. drop to $55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and $65 a barrel for Brent crude price. Earlier expectation of the impact of reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil shrinking global oil supplies have been reversed with increased production from Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Another new development that caused this reversal in sentiment is that the Trump administration granted waivers to some buyers of Iranian crude oil. The U.S. trade dispute with China has also added to this with lower growth forecasts. Unlike in previous years OPEC or Saudi Arabia cannot by itself shrink global supplies with production cuts. The U.S. and Russian output also plays a significant part.

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Cook and Olson look at how U.S. shale oil firms have handled the slump in oil prices. Their report in WSJ says the shale firms have weathered the oil slump well, with production declines in 2016 of only 535,000 barrels a day compared to 2015. The Saudi decision to not cut production and let oil prices drop has affected mostly higher cost less flexible production for mega projects such as deep water projects and oil sands in Canada. Oil shale firms are expected to snap back, according to experts, as demand increases. U.S. production is expected to increase by about 700,000 barrels a day by end of of 2017, say experts.

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The market for oil field equipment is tight with 90% utilization, making it harder for larger oil producers to drill more oil wells for shale oil in the US. Large US shale oil producers reduced production when oil prices plunged and did not come back leaving smaller oil producers to increase production as prices went back up in 2021. Oil prices are now expected to reach $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.  Saudis and Russia are not expected to increase production say experts. The possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and shortage of energy supplies is also a factor. Oil demand in the US and Europe has rebounded with milder covid-19 from Omicron variant and fewer lockdowns. Automobile use is also up in the US with November showing 12% increase in miles driven over the prior year, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Low inventories and resilient demand, and low spare capacity will keep prices surging to $100 from today's price of Brent crude oil at $89 in January 2022.   ...

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With British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss present during a visit to New Delhi, India's Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar says the western talk of sanctions "looks like a campaign." 

"If you look at the major buyers of Russian oil and gas you will find most of them are in Europe. We ourselves get the bulk of our energy supplies from the Middle East, about 8% of our oil from the US in the past, maybe less than 1 percent from Russia,"  said Jaishankar. He said in March Europe had bought 15% more oil from Russia than the month before. And he does not see this changing in coming months.

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India with one third and Japan with one tenth of their oil supplies from Russia are making efforts to cut purchases of Russian oil in October 2025.

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Reliance Oil stops all purchases of Russian oil for it's Jamnagar refinery. US- India trade negotiations move at a faster pace after this decision in November 2025 to increase purchases of US energy and cut Russian oil to where it was before the Ukraine war, when India was getting only about 4% of its oil from Russia.

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US-Iran Ceasefire breaks down as US escorts ships through Hormuz clearing 6 Iranian fastboats.

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The injection of billions of gallons of salt water from shale oil producers in Texas into the ground contaminating ground water. Salt water and other kinds of waste water are byproducts of shale oil production at the rate of 6 wastewater gallons for 1 gallon of shale oil produced. This is becoming a huge problem in west Texas and the Permian Basin. When huge quantities of such water is injected back into the ground it comes back out of the ground in other areas and contaminates groundwater. About half of the US production of oil comes from the Permian Basin. Geologists at the UT Austin say that the pressure in the injection reservoirs in west Texas is now at 0,7 per square foot- at 0.5 per square foot the pressure is enou to have the salty toxic water seep back up to the surface of the ground. This is keeping water management personnel up at night and raising questions about the environmental damage in red hot shale oil production that taxpayers will be in the hook to pay years from now through clearing up the environmental damage. WSJ call it a big mess.  (This is a story not chosen by Apple News as it chose instead a story one on family financial firms in capital markets in WSJ, that is not readily seen on the internet once it is archived, one that Chevron and oil companies prefer not to be discussed, that was selected by Lyrarc.com and Movement for the Renewal of America to keep readers informed to make wise decisions.) Limited and temporary dependence on fossil fuels is both necessary to cut cost of living for people living paycheck to paycheck , yet one should know there are costs with any decision of this kind, and environmental damage is a concern that is postponed only with costs, cost that are passed on to children of this generation and should not be ignored. ...

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Production cuts of 9.7 million barrels a day of oil are negotiated by president Trump to save the global oil industry. Yet demand has dropped by 30 million barrels a day by April 12, 2020 from the pandemic.

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This WSJ report shows Russian oil exports to European ports actually increased in April compared to March 2022. Some of the shipments are sent out with destination unknown, and some oil is transferred to bigger oil tankers further out at sea. Mixing of the oil blurs its origin says this report. It cites TankerTrackers.com showing that ports in European Union member states which are historically the largest buyers of Russian oil had seen exports of Russian crude oil to these ports rise to an average of 1.6 million barrels a day in April from 1.3 million a day in March. Companies such as Shell consider oil that is less than 50% Russian as not Russian oil. Countries such as Netherlands are seeing increase in oil from Russia according to charts shown here. Simon Johnson, professor at MIT and former chief economist at the IMF says until there is an oil embargo this is likely to happen, and it is all about cheap energy. Even with an oil embargo Johnson asks will they sanction tankers out at sea. ...

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Supply chains to the Middle east disrupted by closing of Straits of Hormuz.

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A pipeline through Ukraine territory supplies Hungary and Slovakia. It had to be functional and restored for Ukraine to get 90 billion euros from the European Union. Hungary has a new leader and the loan was quickly approved, the pipeline restored weeks after the Hungarian election ousting Orban.

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US tariff on India of 25% penalty for buying Russian oil and 25% baseline going into effect 21 days later in DJT executive order of August 6, 2025. A 30% baseline on China but no penalty for buying Russian oil. The 21 days will give time for India to come up with an agreement with the US. 

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Higher oil prices help the U.S. oil industry which is on track to be larger than the oil industry of Russia, now that prices exceed $70 a barrel. Yet another $10 or $15 increase in oil prices could lead to reducing economic growth. Efforts by OPEC to cut production and coordination with Russia has taken most of the excess supply out of the global oil markets, and the economic growth in U.S. and Europe has increased demand.

Analysts say the higher oil prices will negate the benefits from tax cuts for low income families.

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Tightening of western sanctions on Russian oil supplies and Russian response of threats for further choking of oil supplies, and the increasing uncertainty, are leading to oil prices above $100 a barrel in November 2022. 

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US trade deficit of $46 billion with India and DJT call to buy oil and gas from the US, to shift away from purchases of $50 billion of oil from Russia, of 2 million barrels a day. India only imported $1 billion of oil from Russia in 2020 and this is a call from the US to India to stop financing Russia's increasing air attacks on Ukraine in August 2025. For India this oil came at $70 a barrel when prices were around $90-$100 a barrel in 2022-2024. In 2025 oil prices are at $60 a barrel, and even if prices increase to $70 a barrel India can make the shift. US and Germany, the EU, Britain which seek negotiated end to the war in Ukraine will continue to pressure India in 2025. Russia could shift some of the oil to other places but the huge demand from a country India's size will not then be seen as a factor in prolonging the war. India needs to think ahead for the next 20 years and its goal of modernization by 2047 like China has done in 2000-2020. And not get into a nationalistic mode that may not be in the best interests of the Indian people seeing that this may serve the interests of all nations including Russia to phase out this European war. ...

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UAE second Fujairah pipeline for completion by 2027 to double capacity from 1.6 million b/d to 3.2 million b/d. This pipeline was intended to bypass the shipping route with tankers through Straits Hormuz by taking it directly to the Gulf of Oman by pipeline. The Saudis have a similar pipeline at Yanbu to bypass the Straits Hormuz by taking it to the Red Sea.