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Price is No. 1 in the minds of Japanese consumers. Seiyu discount stores, part of Walmart, is doing weel, and so are discount retailers across the board. Luxurry brands are suffering declines in revenue. From vegetables and fruits to other products cheap is fashionable and also meets the budgets of many families. Bean sprouts, and local mushrooms are up, cheap bananas replace melons in family budgets, umbrella sales are up as people walk rather than hail acab. Average household spending fell $762 to $38475 or 3.5 million yen in 2008 according to Dai-Ichi Life. There is adefaltionary gap of 40 trillion yen in the economy with demand short by that much from production, and unemployment is at 5.7%.

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The internal divisions in the two main political parties in Japan, the Democratic Party and the LDP. The lack of a coherent base believing in a particular set of ideas in either party.

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Letters to the editor on gold backed dollar as suggested by James Grant, bad maagement by the Fed, and the value of the dollar.

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AIG is at 35 cents, Citigroup is at $1.02, GM is at $2, GE is at $6 a share, Bank of America is at $3.17 a share. The New York Stock Exchange has temporarily suspended its $1 minimum share price requirements to prevent a wave of delistings. There is a concern about another implosion like Lehman or AIG. GM's auditors said GM is not a viable or going concern. A GM bankruptcy with the support of the government is now something that GM management is considering and the government may take that route.

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Frackers nervous but it is good news for America's cost of living fight as prices of oil have come down into the $60 range per barrel. It is also good news for manufacturing in the US and for energy prices for households. 

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The cost of living crisis and low export demand causes 0.2% decline in the German economy in 2024. This is the second year that the German economy is shrinking slightly. Germany in ocntrast to the US is not able to invest in the ageing and deteriorating infrastructure, in transportation and in roads and bridges, other investment needs, because Merkel placed a clause to limit spending into the German constitution. The FDP party in the German Social Democrats Greens FDP coalition acted as a brake on spending during the Scholz first term. The result is deep problems in German infrastructure. Deutsche Bahn trains are chronically late because of poor maintenance and old equipment.

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As China's food retail stores landscape has changed with more and better options offered to consumers, they have shifted upscale, especially with the rapid growth of incomes in China in the last decade. With a decline in growth for Yum Brands in China the company has decided to spin off its operations in China into a separate company, in the hope of giving the local company more room to respond to competitive changes in the food retail store business. As Chinese consumers urban disposable income showed rapid growth from 7700 yuan in 2002 to 23,700 in 2015, the market for food retail chains has changed. With this growth came other competitors such as Pizza Express, a UK chain at the higher end with local Chinese partners, and at the lower end Taiwanese competitors Ting Hsin International Group with its Discos fried chicken chain competing with KFC Yum Brands stores. Local Chinese competitors also moved upscale with Xiabuxiabu Catering serving hot pot, for consumers to cook meat and vegetable in broth doing it themselves. Other factors hurt Yum Brands growth and brand respect with the media reporting use of growth hormones and antibiotics by Kentucy fried chicken suppliers in 2012. And a local media report in 2014 saying that a KFC supplier supplied expired meat hurt sales with adecline of 14% in the fiscal 3rd quarter 2015. The opinion for Pizza Hut, a Yum brand has changed from as recently as 2012, with one survey showing a drop from 39% to 25% for consumers who see it as a desirable brand. A Beijing teacher for example now sees Pizza Hut as a cheap option compared to spending 128 yuan or $20 on a better quality pancetta and sun dried tomato pizza. More discriminating Chinese consumers means this trend will continue, and the media constantly looking for flaws in quality standards. As many companies are finding out the Chinese market is not going to be easy for the complacent....

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China's Finance Ministry is having a difficult time controlling local governments using local government financing vehicles to invest in more infrastructure, airports roads and subways. One such city is Wuhan which plans six subway lines, three bridges over the Yangste river and a new airport. Much of the money comes from land sales. The Finance Ministry in a 2013 report pointed to the unreliability of land sales for future borrowing as the property market is slowing, and because it is highly unpopular to requisition land for land sales. This matters because the IMF says debt is growing faster in China than when Japan, South Korea and the U.S. fell into deep recessions at different times between the late 1980's and 2009. Local government debt accounts for one fourth of the increase in China's domestic debt since 2008. New rules by China's bond agency in Dec. 2014 prevents investors from using low grade debt to borrow cash. In the past local governments found a way around the central governments effort to curb growth of debt by restructuring the local government vehicles or some other way, as Wuhan has done. Wuhan Urban is the local government financing vehicle for Wuhan and its debt increased by 20% in 2013. Wuhan's mayor, Tang Liangzhi, is pushing construction to the point where he is known as Mr. Dig, Dig. One reason for China's slowing growth below 6-7% is the need to control the growth of debt. Local government debt in China reached 36% of GDP in 2013, double the figure in 2008, and will increase to 52% of GDP in 2019, according to the IMF. And the increase is not proportionally delivering the same results as before. JP Morgan estimates that over 4 units of borrowing are needed in 2015 for every unit of investment, compared to less than 2 units of borrowing for every unit of investment in 2007. PRC Macro Advisors of Hong Kong says half of the borrowing by financing vehicles goes to pay interest on existing debt in 2014. There are 8000 such local government financing vehicles in China today each competing to build infrastructure in its neighborhood, in the case of Wuhan to build a computing back office for financial companies and as transportation hub, even though its uncertain whether this will be realized or not. The problem is that alternative investments as an opportunity cost are being neglected, the hospital not being built as China's population ages with underinvestment in health care, and the private company with better returns that is unable to find financing. A classic example of crowding out of better return investments as a glut of housing and road/bridge/ airport infrastructure gets built. The central government is wary but faced with slowing growth pushes problems down the road, what experts call a Japan syndrome....

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June unemployment numbers will jump say experts at IHS Insight as GM and Chrysler downsize even more to become smaller companies with even less market share. This will reflect closing Pontiac and sale or closing of the other GM brands Saturn, Saab, and Hummer. It will reflect closing of more dealerships of GM and Chrysler. THis might be offset by a pickup in sales if something like the European trading clunkers for new cars program takes off in the USA. But with the US customers more in debt and with rising job losses, the pattern may be different in the US. It may only offer a small boost in sales. Manufacturing still matters in a recovery. In 1980 manufacturing was 20% of America's output, now it is 11.5% says Mark Zandl of Moody's Economy.com. Manufacturing, he says, has a bigger impact than its size suggests, because it responds quickly. As sales resume workers are called back to their jobs. The sharp V shaped recoveries in the early 80's reflected the rapid response of manufacturing. After the 1980's both the declines and the recoveries were shallow in 1990-1991 and 2001. Now with GM and Chrysler shrinking further under the government plan to fix these companies, and taking the supplier impact, the rebound leg of the V is missing. The kick from the Big Three and their suppliers is missing, says Nigel Gault of IHS Insight. Of the 5.7 million jobs lost from Jan 2008 to June 2009, 1.6 million were in manufacturing and 289,000 were in motor vehicles, split almost evenly between assemblers and supplier networks....

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Some economists expect growth in China's GDP to slow down to 5.8% for the 4th quarter. China's export driven growth model based on factories with plentiful hardworking young labor including young women, and plentiful foreign investment, Chinese investment from HongKong and Taiwan, and plentiful capital generated from China's high savings rate, and supply of land from local government officials eager to participate in the boom, is finally slowing down, after 3 decades since Deng launched China on this path. However this slowdown is happening drastically, and the whole model is coming apart. The first signs came earlier this year as the government initated a shift in policies after seeing the costs of runaway growth on the environment and in pollution of air and water, and in the wages of labor. Laws protecting labor rights and wages, and stricter pollution laws and enforcement for the first time in years that suggested the government was serious, pulled the bottom off of marginal export industries and companies. Only the larger better run companies were able to operate in this environment. About 67,000 factories closed in coastal regions in the first half of this year. See the link to this. Now that process is hit by the global credit crisis and the demand decline in 2008, and possible demand collapse in 2009 in US export markets if some things like the auto industry take a bad turn and unemployment jumps, all are hitting hard at China's export sector. This is in turn hitting investment as in Germany as companies pull back, and nervous consumers with losses in the stock market and seeing a decline in housing prices pull back on purchases resulting in inventories building up for different industries including the important auto industry. ...

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Simply put the party that makes the best case for the economy and for a better future consistently and constantly will prevail as at the end of the day white, black, rural and urban voters will be listening carefully. The cost of living, immigration, the economy, are major issues in 2024. Nate Cohn of the NYT looks at the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms and polling for 2024. He says Republicans are doing better in states they did well in the midterms in 2022. Nationally they are doing as well as in the midterms making gains in noncompetitive blue states such as New York and California where there is less impact of Roe vs Wade abortion rights and voters can show discontent with Democrats for the way they have governed. Trump can also gain with black and Hispanic voters but more in California and New York and Texas noncompetitive states.  Harris does well in Florida, and Texas, and in some red states for the same reason as voters look for alternatives from being tied down to the Republican party or the Trump Republicans.  In the key Electoral College states in midwest Harris is holding up well in polling- in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In these states Black and Hispanics are not in the same population numbers as in other states. ...