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The implications of China's support for Russia on Ukraine for Eastern European countries and for NATO. As the war drags on Eastern European countries say China's support of Russia in trade and commercial relations prolongs the war in Ukraine.

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Senior officials from Russia and OPEC producers meet in Jeddah in April 2018 to work out plans to continue cuts in production to reduce inventories and lift oil prices. The deal was first made in 2016 to reduce the glut then prevailing that led to a slump in oil prices to the $50 per barrel level. The agreement has worked to remove about 2% of world oil production. Healthy demand in 2018 from economies of Europe and America has helped lift oil prices with the cuts in production in place to $70 per barrel. A reinstatement of sanctions on Iran could limit supplies from Iran. Venezuelan production is down in its current economic crisis. Russia says it is 100 percent committed to compliance with the agreement with Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries. It was the lack of agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia with each going its own way following the Russian intervention in Syria favoring Iran that increased the glut in oil supplies in 2015 leading to a fall in oil prices. For some time this hurt the Russian economy and Russia responded by actively devaluing its currency to maintain economic stability and internal growth. The Saudis were hit too by the fall in oil prices limiting new investments in the economy. The new agreement between Russia and the Saudis/OPEC comes after mutual interest has prevailed in the relations of OPEC  and Russia over the geopolitics in the region between Iran supported by Russia and the Saudis. It also comes as relations between the U.S. and Russia are worsening, with increasing investments in the military. ...

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Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...

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Jean-Luc Melenchon, for two decades at the fringes of French politics, has a carefully prepared program to address the concerns of working class voters in France. He has not appealed directly to yellow vest voters so as not to affect relations with other moderate voters. He is now accepted by French business because of his detailed action plan for the French economy and French workers. Other voters see him as the only one with a serious action plan with his plan for the Sixth Republic removing the powerful executive presidency setup by De Gaulle and drafting a new constitution.

He has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine yet says it does not help to humiliate Russia and setup more NATO countries close to its borders. During any negotiations both Russia and Ukraine have now accepted the idea of Ukraine enjoying neutral country status in the same way as Sweden. 

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China's military exercises for air and sea blockade of Taiwan raise the political risk of doing business in China says this report in WSJ. It raises the risk level for American corporations such as Apple and Boeing and others, that have large investments in China. The escalating tension and freeze in relations between the US and China is a watershed moment says the WSJ. Looking back years from now it may be the year following the pandemic and the war in Ukraine that tensions took on a level that would lead to acceleration of the building of new supply chains for the US and European Union in Asia that separate from China. The Trump years as president escalated trade tensions and tensions over origins of Covid. The war in Ukraine and China's siding with Russia and forming a "no limits" partnership with Russia have created serious rethinking of the entire relationship from supply chains to defense. US president Biden sees Ukraine's defense as a way of showing that an attack on one country by a neighbor in violation of international law is not acceptable to the US, and particularly in the context of China's relations with Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific countries. In this situation the US is taking the initiative in the war in Ukraine with Gen. Cavoli at US Headquarters in Europe assisting in the effort to repel Russian aggression, and also send a message to China on the importance the US sees in not allowing this kind of violation of international law. ...

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Sanae Takaichi press conference with DJT at White House March 19 2026- there is no mention of Japanese help with clearing Straits of Hormuz. US Japan relations after the meeting of Takaichi and DJT at the White House appear to be in good shape. Japan will invest $73 billion in US investment projects in 2026 as part of the $550 billion commitment made at the time of the US Japan trade deal in 2025 under the previous LDP prime minister. Takaichi is coming with strong support in Japan after winning a landslide victory in the general election. Japan's main concern is the belligerent North Korea and China's posture in Asia as it relates to Taiwan. Agreements were reached on critical issues- to develop alternative supplies of critical minerals, to rebuild the shipbuilding industry which US and Japan had given up after dominating it for most of the 20th century. This is critical to ensure open navigation on the oceans of the world. Agreements on high tech and AI, and agreement to purchase Alaskan oil to cut Japan's 90% dependence on volatile Middle East supplies. Japan has managed Middle East supply by keeping over 254 days of inventory but this looks to be very risky as Germany learned from its dependence on Russian oil which went in the wrong direction under Merkel. Japan has released about 18% of its total reserve amount of the 254 days inventory (146 days in national reserves and 101 days in private mandated reserves). It uses 3.14 million barrels a day in 2026 down from 5.8 million barrels a day in 1996, using about half today through conservation and using renewable energy showing the potential for the US and Europe. Germany has cut oil consumption by a third in comparison from 2.9 mbd in 1996 to 2.0 in 2026. And the US remains stagnant with oil demand highest in 2005 at 20.5 mbd and 20 years later at 20.5 mbd mainly because 14mbd or 70% goes to cars and trucks on the road for 347 million people over continental spaces (compared to 297 million in 2005) for a reduction of oil use of 15%. ...

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Russia is raising taxes on the rich, high earners and companies to keep military spending at levels not seen since the height of the Cold War of 6% of GDP. This is part of effort to keep the economy growing and standards of living stable as it pursues a long term policy of trying to push its borders further to the west in the Ukraine region and confront what it sees as unwarranted NATO expansion to its borders. Russia also with China's support is conducting its policy to show that it is undeterred by Sweden and Finland joining NATO or the early setbacks in its Ukraine war effort. This happens as China is moving to less strident positions in its relations with the EU and the US and working for some level of working relations on trade and economy with EU and the US as its economy slows down.

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  A look at European history shows even in the religious wars between Catholics and Protestants France took the Protestant side when it was in its national interest. Other European nations also did the same in the Thirty Years War 1618-1648. China shifted out of the Soviet Bloc in the 1970's. There is no monolithic way in foreign policy. US sees it in its interest to get a European population Russian on its side or separate from China in meeting the challenge from China. After 3 years of war in which the US relations with Russia deteriorated because of the Ukraine war and US supplying Ukraine under the Biden administration, DJT reverses US policy to improve relations with Russia. The goal is to improve US-Russia relations. Because this also involves ending the Ukraine war that is destroying a whole generation of young men in Russia and Ukraine, US is exploring ways to end that war through early discussions to get a sense of Russian perceptions.This is why the US does not need the Europeans or the Ukrainians at the table. Ways in which US will restore relations-Restore staffing levels at embassies and consulates. Find ways to cooperate on economy and foreign policy issues.   ...

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War in Ukraine after failed Alaska effort by US to end the war. In September 2025 Russia holds out, spurning peace efforts from the US president, to see if the economy holds out over the next 24 months and Russia can get Ukraine to abandon it's efforts to join the EU and Western European alliances. The baffling aspect of this war is that the neutral aspect adopted by Finland before the war, by Sweden, by the Swiss, was never considered as a realistic option by Ukraine, looking beyond the problems of the 1930's and having awareness that there were weaknesses in both the capitalist and the Soviet systems, to take the broad larger view. And with that being realistic that a better effort would be to reflect on the corruption and lack of clean government, the need to build the healthy institutions that would serve the people best. The approach taken by Gandhi in India in its relations with Britain, to preserve the best and improve on what failed the Indian people, and reflect on the integrity, the right attitude needed for India in the Modern World. From the Russian side the failure to use the period before the shift to renewable energy to invest the capital used in the war of $200 billion a year for a stronger economy and industrial base in 2022- 2027- an investment of a trillion dollars that would make it the industrial power and support its position as the preeminent power in Northern Europe. ...

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German politicians are critical of Finance minister Schauble's remarks comparing Putin's takeover of Crimea to Hitler's annexation of the Sudetenland. Merkel distances herself from the remarks considering that a singular event. Former chancellor Kohl tells the Bild newspaper, "there's been a lack of sensitivity in dealing with our Russian neighbor, especially President Putin." Decades of hard work in building relations with the Soviet Union since Willy Brandt initiated engagement, followed by Schmidt, Kohl and Schroeder, are seen as being put at risk by the German public and government. Business interests are also at stake. Polls show 60% of German's oppose sending the German air force to NATO's eastern borders, and German foreign minister Steinmeier said there was no way for Ukraine to join NATO. A former German ambassador to the U.S., head of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, says Germany not the U.S. would suffer the most from a deterioration in relations. Companies like Siemens and Deutsche Bahn put a high priority on de-escalation of the crisis....

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Did Putin overreact as he did in Georgia. On the issue of Russian speaking people in neighboring eastern European countries Putin has strong emotional reaction, as evident in the 2008 Georgian conflict. In Ukraine the issue assumes significance because of the effect of western sanctions, adverse foreign investor sentiment and the tendency of rich Russians, similiar to Argentines, to shift assets abroad. Capital flight was $75 billion in the first 6 months of 2014. Add to this adverse effect on foreign investor sentiment on an already slowing Russian economy, and growth will be seriously affected. Car sales are expected to decline by 12% in 2014, according to a trade group. The rhetoric has been toned down on Russian television. And Russian analysts now say relations with the West must be maintained. Polls by state run polling company WCIOM show 66% of the Russian public oppose Russian forces entering Ukrainian territory.

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The economic crisis in Turkey in 2022 wiped out half of the value of the lira. Inflation surged. The war in Ukraine hurt Turkey as it is dependent on Ukraine for grain supplies. The surge in fuel prices and the weaker currency meant higher inflation and more of its scarce foreign reserves going to imports of oil and gas. Net foreign reserves dropped to $6 billion in July, coming back up to $26 billion by December 2022.  President Erdogan maintained close relations with Russia to have access to  Russian oil and gas. Turkey has increased exports to Russia by 45% including clothing, household appliances and electronics. Russia is considering postponement of $20 billion owed for natural gas imports. And Russia transferred $5 billion to Turkey in July for a nuclear plant, with $10 billion expected later on. This helps cover the more than $100 billion the Turkish central bank used in 2022 to support the currency Lira. Erdogan's foreign policy has been to act as an intermediary in a UN negotiation for opening the Black Sea shipments of grain from Ukraine and fertilizer exports from Russia. This helps Arab countries in North Africa including Egypt which depend on Ukraine for vital grain supplies.  Everything Erdogan does says a former foreign minister is designed to push up his poll ratings which have risen about 5 percentage points from a low of about 39% in January of 2022 to about 44%. Inflation at 57% in Jan 2023 is still hurting ordinary people in Turkey and the outcome of the May 2023 election after 20 years of Erdogan in power is uncertain.  ...

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With an article posted online and a 2 hour question and answer session Medvedev outlined his vision of Russia that attacks the corruption, commodities based economy, and lack of pluralistic democracy. This is the first major effort where Medvedev has repeatedly emphasized the differences between his vision for Russia and the existing state of affairs. He did not rule out running in 2012 for President even though he stated he has ggod relations with Prime Minister Putin.

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Steinmeier has pursued the middle road in Germany's relations with Russia even after the tensions over Ukraine. He says we have to put behind us the illusions that a multipolar world will replace the bipolar world. He looks to his Protestant faith in these times, and says it is important to stay involved, and not allow escalation of conflicts at the periphery, such as the one in Ukraine. Critics such as the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, say his diplomacy and efforts at Ostpolitik is a matter of just opening doors, that Putin has already created discord in Europe.

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Major changes in NATO-Soviet relations as President Medvedev is invited to join in the NATO summit, and proposals are made for Russia to participate in European missile defence. A meeting in Deauville, France, between Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel.

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Turkey's relations with Turkmen in northern Syria, and opposition to the bombing of this part of Syria by Russian planes is cited as the reason for Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane in November 2015. Prime minister Erdogan stated this by saying: "we strongly condemn attacks focusing on areas inhabited by Bayibucak Turkmen- we have our relatives, our kin there." Following the incident Turkey provided media with footage showing 10 repeated warnings in the space of 5 minutes to the two Russian planes before Turkish F-16's shot down the Russian plane. The area where the plane was shot down is a small part of Turkey that juts into Syria. This part of Turkey is called the Hatay province, with Turkmen in Hatay forming a republic in 1938 breaking away from the French mandate over Syria set up following the first world war. The following year it joined Turkey. Parts of the Turkmen in Hatay are still in Syria and this is the region Russia began bombing 2 months ago, with Turkey opposing the bombing. Russian president Putin's claim that this is part of the bombing of Islamic State positions is refuted by Turkey's prime minister Davotoglu, who says "No one can legitimize attacks on Turkmens in Syria using the pretext of fighting the Islamic State." ...

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US EU relations are on a better track with president Biden, yet tough talks on issues such as Russia and China, vaccines, climate change remain, and there is the uncertainty of new leadership in France and Germany with upcoming elections.

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By giving its approval to Russia's Nordstream 2 gas pipeline the Biden administration is putting priority on restoring good relations with Germany. Germany had pushed for the Nordstream 2 pipeline in its discussions with the US.

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See the adjoining report in DW.com that covers the planned meeting between Japanese PM Kishida and Kim of North Korea to reduce tensions in the region. Kishida is taking a proactive approach as the ideological positions have failed and talking directly to North Korea as Junichiro Koizumi had done in 2004 (with a visit to Pyongyang when Kim's father was president) is now the right course. It is now twenty years that this was not tried. Former president Trump met Kim of North Korea at the Demilitarized Zone DMZ near Seoul in 2019. Not much changed after that meeting. North Korea has increased missile testing with ICBM missiles and increased its nuclear missiles with improvement in technology since then. One aspect of the Reagan/Weinberger era policy was its sense that America would keep investing in defense and at some point everyone else would fall behind. This has not happened. After a slowdown in its economy in the early 1990's opportunities to build Russia relations were left to business interests and opportunities were lost. The memory of that period of Russia's economic collapse lingers and feeds a sense that somehow Russia was diminsished by waht happened after the abrupt collapse of the Russian position in Eastern Europe.  In fact the only nuclear missile tests conducted in this 21st century were conducted by North Korea.  ...

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Xi Jinping's 3 day visit to Russia and his meetings with Mr. Putin. China presents the trip as an effort to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine based on its proposals. China is also affected by the war in Ukraine as it works against China's recovery from the economic effects of the pandemic. China sees Russia as a partner in what it sees as a multipolar world, yet it is too close to Germany and the European Union, relations which provide it with access to western technology needed for its continuing growth. China does not want to disrupt the relationship with Germany and the European Union over the war in Ukraine.

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It costs Israel about $200 million a day. Building repairs from buildings damaged by missiles might coast $400 million. A month of war could add up to $12 billion. Air defense systems cost $700,000 for incoming drones and missiles per interception for the David system. For the Arrow system it costs $4 million per interception for ballistic missiles. This is why the ballistic missiles and drones launched against Israel from sites in Iran are big hit first. It is also why US -Russia and relations are so important in any of these regional conflicts. As two technologically sophisticated military powers both need responsible behaviour to prevent conflicts involving nuclear weapns proliferation. In this sense the idea of western powers is a colonial period idea of the colonial powers Britain and France, that the US should be wary of accepting and the importance of western civilization that includes Russia as a reliable concept that maintains world peace and nuclear non proliferation. ...

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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Some Russians see the Helsinki Summit as having the unintended effect of reducing the chances U.S. relations with Russia can be improved. Mr. Bolton, Trump's National Security Adviser wanted to see Mr. Trump bring up the issue of meddling in the election and seek public guarantees that this would not happen again. Trump's deference to Mr. Putin may result these Russians say in the U.S. Congress, media and public opinion limiting any repair of U.S. Russia relations that have fallen to new lows. 

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Foreign Minister Wadephul of Germany in India for talks on a free trade agreement that would double trade volume to $64 billion- September 2025. It is notable that German Foreign Minister is in New Delhi to improve relations and shift to larger trade relationship with India at the very time US under pressure from Europe and Germany, France is pushing India to shift away from buying Russian oil to other sources. Each side is aware of the complexities in the relationships. In the long run Germany under Merz will after the experience of China's support of Russian invasion in Ukraine, make the changes that never happened under Merkel- making India its major trade partner in Asia. By 2030 Germany trade's with India could exceed $100 billion.