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On taxes instead of $100 billion a year increase in the deficit that the 2017 tax cut of Biden's predecessor cost the Treasury -which benefited average Americans only $750 a year studies show, and reduced corporate taxes from 35% to 21% shifting billions to large corporations- Biden proposed $500 billon cut in the deficit by putting a 25% tax on 1000 billionaires in the US. Biden's guarantee that no one making less than $400,000 a year would pay an extra penny in taxes. Everyone would be better off, no one worse off. His predecessor's 2017 tax cut did not increase investment spending by companies which remained same as before. "There are 1,000 billionaires in America.   You know what the average federal tax rate for these billionaires is? 8.2 percent!  That’s far less than the vast majority of Americans pay.   No billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a sanitation worker, a nurse!  That’s why I’ve proposed a minimum tax of 25% for billionaires. Just 25%.  That would raise $500 Billion over the next 10 years." Only some of it would pay for the following the rest to cut the deficit- "Imagine what that could do for America. Imagine a future with affordable child care so millions of families can get the care they need and still go to work and help grow the economy.  Imagine a future with paid leave because no one should have to choose between working and taking care of yourself or a sick family member.    Imagine a future with home care and elder care so seniors and people living with disabilities can stay in their homes and family caregivers get paid what they deserve!  Tonight, let’s all agree once again to stand up for seniors! "       ...

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The U.S. Supreme Court lets the Obama healthcare law stand in a 5-4 vote with Justice Roberts casting the deciding vote. The Court ruled that the government could impose the individual mandate that all people carry health care insurance not because of the commerce clause but because: The provision "need not be read to do more than impose a tax...This is sufficient to sustain it."

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The narrowest of majorities in the House- just 1 vote for Republicans will require that every Congressman be present during a vote, and that not 1 Republican decides to do what he or she believes is the right thing to do. This will make it difficult to deliver on DJT's agenda says  this report in WSJ. 

On paper Republicans are 220 to 215 for Democrats. With resignation of Rep Gaetz  it comes to 2019 to 215. This means no more than 1 defection is possible for Republicans to pass legislation. Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida and Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York will become the National Security Adviser and US Representative at the United Nations, which means by February 2024 till new elections are held for these 2 seats the House will be 2017 to 2015. At that point a single defection would risk blocking legislation.

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Home Depot to keep prices steady by making products outside China- May 2025. Home Depot says it will do this by making products outside of China. DJT administration is working to get American retailers to hold prices steady as the US grapples with overconcentration of production in China. For three decades American administrations from Bush to Obama allowed the overconcentration of production in China to take place and diverted attention to unwinnable foreign wars where American interests were not at stake. US president DJT faces a difficult situation to reverse this overconcentration having to resort to tariffs and other actions to correct these missteps of previous presidents.

 During the transition period Americans need to be protected from rising prices to keep increase in the cost of living under control. Companies such as Home Depot are taking a responsible step considering the importance of the action for America's long term interests.

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The best that can be said about all the efforts to stabilize the housing markets is that they help in the context of the credit crisis that hit the economy hard with the Bear Stearns crisis and help to provide an orderly retreat for housing prices and ways to soften the blow to homeowners and lenders caught up in the wave of foreclosures. But housing prices themselves have not declined anywhere near what one would expect. In fact BW, p17, April 7, 2008 shws percentage changes for existing homes from Feb 2007 to Feb 2008 with data from the National Association of Realtors. And they are surprising when you consider sales for the northeast down 26% and prices up slightly 0.4%. Elsewhere the sales are down 29% in the Western states for a 13% price decline, sales down 20% for a 7% price decline in the Midwestern states, and sales are down 22% for a 9% decline in the Southern states. Jobless rates are 3.9% in Austin, Texas and Birmingham, Alabama and only Detroit, St Louis and Cleveland have jobless rates above 6%. What this suggests is that the unemployment situation has not seen the brunt of this credit tightening and drop in capital investment. As house prices have not declined much declines over 10% mostly in the western states and places like Detroit but not in the northeast and across the south, and unemployment still low across many regional communities, consumption spending has not seen the brunt of this credit tightening. Once tightened credit conditions hit payrolls as companies cut their workforce and unemployment moves up then expect to see greater housing price declines as more houses go into foreclosures, and then expect consumption spending to feel the impact which would reduce sales and further trim payrolls as companies run their factories at less and less production capacity. This sequence would continue and bring the economic crisis to more and more parts of the country in a manner that we have hardly see upto this point. What we have seen is the unfolding of a collapse of mortgage securities firms and of mortgage securites insurance providers like ACA, and with it the huge writedowns about $150 billion taken by the investment houses and the banks. And this has happened as a wave of foreclosures took place in 2006. And the collapse of Bear Stearns with the effects felt in global stock markets. In the communities themselves in the areas of consumption spending and in jobs the conditions will only now begin to be felt and the real impact not felt till the end of 2008 and into 2009 with the Fed action to shore up confidence adding several months in slowing the process. See the link to BW, Bernanke the Reluctant Revolutionary, where the BW estimate is that Americans took on about $3 trillion in additional debt between 2000 and 2006 from what they would have taken if they had followed the trajectory of spending patterns that had prevailed upto that point, with their recent free spending ways. It would take abot 3 to 4 years conservatively for Americans to work down all that debt. Another way of saying this is that consumption spending is going to take a big hit and with it sales of companies and consequently higher unemployment and more part time labor force with less benefits, which would tend to depress consumption even more. The winds of housing, credit, consumption and unemployment would all hit the economy in about 12 months time. Credit will further tighten as BW estimates about $130 billion of additional writedowns still expected....

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Questions raised by analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the European Policy Center in Brussels, about the lack of leadership from Chancellor Merkel of Germany and EU leaders in addressing swiftly the crisis facing Greece and countries in southern Europe. Facing voter displeasure in Germany Merkel stalled in the hope of delaying adecision till after a regional election in Germay on May 9. In the process Merkel turned a smaller crisis in Greece into a crisis facing many countries in Europe including Spain, Portugal and Italy, and a crisis for the euro currency. French member of Parliament Juvin, told the French press: "are they waiting for the collapse of the euro?" One sticking point is that the Lisbon Treaty has no provisions for coordinating fiscal policies, and Germany did not insist earlier on oversight of Greek statistics which were generally known to be false since the 1990's. Another French member of the European Parliament, Le Grip, insisted on the need for a new European economic government, and the creation of new institutional responsibilites. The problem lies in the feeling in countries like Germany not to cede sovereignty on economic matters to a European economic body. ...

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One of the first questions by moderators in the Univision debate in Florida focussing on immigration issues related to the anti-immigrant sentiment fostered by Donald Trump. Trumps statements on Hispanics and Muslims came under withering criticism from Clinton and Sanders. Hillary Clinton stated in reference to the Trump campaign slogan "Make America Great Again" that you can't make America great by doing things that do not reflect America's values. She said she would continue to speak up against the anti-immigrant sentiment created by Trump's derogatory statements about immigrants.

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Krugman compares the Republican Ryan Plan and the plan proposed by President Obama for deficit reduction. He also compares the Ryan plan on Medicare and Obama's proposed plan for Medicare.

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A recent book "The Spirit Level" has become popular in Britain. It says that countries with greater disparities in income also do worse in a number of social indicators, from higher murder rates to lower life expectancy. It also affects the consensus in society which is a necessary underpinning for sustained economic development and economic growth. Inequality when it affects the middle class and reduces the size of incomes in the middle, or creates stagnation in incomes, poses large risks for society and affects economic growth. In the US the home foreclosure crisis and the lack of bargaining power of wage earners in the middle class has created this problem. This is exacerbated by the banking crisis and bad loans in the banking system. Studies show that slow growth in college graduating rates in the USA after 1970 compared to the period 1900-1970, has increased inequality, especially with today's knowledge economy. Germany is also affected by this problem as wages for workers have remained stagnant with the labor reforms. Interestingly a combination of economic growth and payments to the poor have increased the size of the middle class and its incomes in Brazil. The austerity policies in Britain will affect incomes and income growth in Britain for the middle class. In China the gap is widening quickly between the urban areas and the rural areas. And the policy of residency permits- the hukou system-which limits internal mobility from rural areas to the cities and towns, makes the inequality all the more glaring. The lack of democratic election makes the situation worse in China compared to Brazil, because free elections in Brazil enabled leaders from the working classes such as Luiz Inacio Da Silva and Ms. Rousseff to emerge as heads of government. These leaders pursued policies that would explicitly bring a more shared prosperity in Brazil compared to the leadership in China. In China policies are determined by entrenched interests in its model of development- the state-owned companies and banks and their managers, local and government officials of the Communist party, and businesses with the networks and connections with the Communist party and local governments. This is why the ginni coefficient which measures inequality has dropped significantly in China, putting it in the rank of developing countries with poor records in equality. Inflation in China, India and Africa also affects the poor and lower middle classes to a greater extent. Current trends suggest that rebuilding the middle class in the developed countries and providing fairer distribution in developing countries will be of serious importance in coming years. Especially with the likelihood of more economic crises which tend to adversely affect the middle and lower classes disproportionately....

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The rise of Japan was a major challenge for president Reagan in the 1980's in the way president Trump is confronting the rise of China. The Reagan administration obtained the concessions it needed from Japan. The negotiator for the U.S. side during the Reagan years - Robert Lighthizer. Lighthizer is using his experience in winning concessions from Japan in his role as top trade negotiator with China.  As the WSJ points out Japan ceased to be a threat to the U.S. faster than anyone thought possible. 

But there is one problem even if this happens the warning is that the imbalances with Japan simply transferred over time to China. The warning is for America's tendency to spend money it does not have, and for how long.

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The vaccine cost varies with the company Astra Zeneca at $4 and Moderna at $25. Government money is taking away much of the risk for manufacturers. The U.S. government has allocated massive investments with different manufacturers to ensure that a vaccine is available. Worldwide demand is about 2 billion doses over 2 years. Seven manufacturers have joined together to reassure the public that a vaccine will be tested carefully for safety and effectiveness. Some manufacturers excluding Pfizer and Moderna have stated that the vaccine will be provided at cost.

To return to some level of normal economy and people able to live normal lives the vaccine has to be available to all people at an affordable and widely available level.

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Housing markets in US that went up with jump in demand during the pandemic, markets in Nashville, Austin, Phoenix, are now in downswing. Migration patterns turbocharged by the pandemic are now fading. Overbuilding, slowing in population growth and lack of affordability are creating  vacant office space, and unsold single family homes. From 2020 to 2022 Austin house prices jumped by 60% with very low borrowing costs,, now in 2024 they are down 11% from the peak in 2022. Demand  dropped with a surge in interest rates creating unaffordability. By 2023 home sales reached a 30 year low. even today Austin homes are seen as 35% overvalued as home prices increased at over twice the rate of per capita incomes of 22%.

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During the Ukraine war this special feature on the European Council website shows what it is doing to mitigate the impact of the war when it comes to the food supply for the world. 48 million tons of agricultural products were exported by the land routes opened by the EU when sea routes were blocked. $1 billion is allocated by the EU finance for this purpose. Ukraine makes up 50% of the world's food exports- it is a breadbasket to the world. Getting food supplies out is essential to keep down the cost of food. Half a billion euros go to keeping EU food production strong. Nine billion euros support the effort to keep food supplies flowing to poor countries.

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Greg Ip of the WSJ says a second term of former president Trump would look very different from the first. Republicans achieved their goal of tax reform in the first two years of that term. Following that trade tariffs ensued against China creating a different environment in world trade. A second term would lead to more action on trade and more tariffs. Ip says the former president could impose tariffs on all Chinese imports and this would lead to retaliatory tariffs from China and be met with EU retaliatory action in a tit for tat manner. The result would be disruption in world trade and affect the world economy. Higher inflation could also be result of such disruptions.

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DW.com gives this detailed account of the developments in the Luis Rubiales case in Spanish football, including comments made by Spain's leading footballer Andres Iniesta on the need to restore the integrity of Spanish football and the women's game. Iniesta's statement begins with the words, "as a father of three daughters and a husband..," that he was saddened by the events that have affected the wonderful history created by Spanish footballers during the World Cup and the image of Spain and Spanish football in the world. Spain and Portugal, Morocco are a contender for the World Cup hosting in 2030 which could depend on how this case is resolved, says DW.com.

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Equity markets in Europe and the U.S. are likely to see some of the 62 trillion yen, or $630 billion, which the Bank of Japan plans to add to holdings of banks and households in two years 2013-2014. A senior advisor to Deutsche Bank, Thomas Mayer, says equities of Germany, France and Britain are likey to see interest from Japanese investors, as are bonds and equities of the U.S. Japanese companies such as Toyota and consumer product companies such as Sony and Panasonic will now be able to better compete on price against their S. Korean, American and European competitors.

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Apple iWatch sales are about 11 million -15 million units in last 4 quarters. The iWatch sales are a small fraction of sales overall. Apple quarterly profit declines by 22.5%, as revenue declines and iPhone sales decline. Half of the quarterly revenue decline comes from China. This has hurt the share price by May 2016.

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President Obama attends a filming of a show for "The View" hosted by Whoopi Goldberg and co-host Barbara Walters at ABC studios on Sept 24, 2012. This happens just as world leaders are greeted by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as they arrive for a meeting of the General Assembly of the United Nations in New York. And just as Tim Arango reports in the NYT that the situation in the Middle East is seeing spillover affects from Syria that affect the entire region, and Middle East tensions are rising.

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South Korea never had the benefit of representation in parliament under the Japanese the way India had in the British parliament for Naoroji and others by the 1900's, political participation in the 1920's, assembly elections in 1930's under the British. Democracy came to South Korea in 1948 in the middle of a huge war in the Korean peninsula with invasion from the North, leaving it without democratic traditions, and again in protests in 1960 against Synghman Rhee's military government. Then followed military governments by Park and Chun till 1988. Democracy is only 36 years old in South Korea since 1988. BBC gives this Special Report on President Yoon of South Korea how he was elected as a prosecutor of a right wing government and made Chief Prosecutor by left wing parties. After this appointment he investigated ministers in the left wing government. This increased his popularity but also alineated both the left and the right. Running for election as president of South Korea he won by less than one percent of the vote.  BBC talks to a Yoon primary school friend Lee who describes his interaction with his friend over many years- during which he make more introverted, angry and vehement, and after becoming president more authoritarian. The process is described by the BBC talking to other colleagues and friends of Yoon who worked with him. They found that he relied more and more on a close group of like minded right wing groups. After losing the parliamentary election by a big majority he became a lame duck but still stubbornly refused to talk to the Opposition leaders to work together. Soon he began to see them as his enemy watching too many one sided You Tube videos. The result was one day he declared martial law, creating a huge wave of  opposition by the public, the military and others. In 6 hours he had to withdraw martial law- ending his career when his impeachment was upheld today April 3, 2025 by the Constitutional Court. ...

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The median age of Toyota buyers is 56 years, higher than Honda at 55 years, and VW at 51 years. However Toyota has not lost its reputation for reliability among older buyers. Automotive Lease Guide in its last 3 semiannual surveys shows Toyota's reputation for quality is improving to the point where it may take the top ranking from Honda in 2012. In residual value Toyota is behind only Honda's Acura brand. After reaching a peak market share of 16% in the U.S. market in 2007, Toyota has slipped to 13%. This is changing as Toyota sales are estimated to increase by 7% in November 2011 over the prior year by some analysts, which gives it 15% market share.

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Abrams and De Acosta, Bellman of the WSJ look at growth and modernization in India in comparison with China and other countries. GDP per capita would take 10 years to reach the stage at which spending power of the people equals that in China today. At one point in 1980 China and South Korea were closer in GDP per capita than India. It is only now that India is accelerating towards the scale and depth of modernization done in China.  India's growth rate of over 7% is likely to surge after some of the problems in bad loans in the banking sector are cleared up. A wave of technological advances would help accelerate growth. Ease of doing business and foreign investment are on upward trend, for absorbing new technology from advanced countries. A shift to very low prices for data use with rapid development of 4G services is one of the recent achievements. Manufacturing growth remains a challenge to be tackled to create the jobs needed.  Revamping tax structures such as GST and shifting the economy towards use of electronic cash has increased revenues needed to invest in infrastructure, health and education.  As much of the potential for future growth comes from people at the lower income levels, improving social indicators such as sanitation, cleanliness, farmer incomes, universal bank accounts, universal access to health care, are steps that lay the foundation for the future. ...

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The yen is 34% stronger than the Korean won since mid 2008, hurting Japan's competitive edge. This affects exporters like Toyota which sees annual profit reduced by $390 million or 35 billion yen for every one yen appreciation against the dollar. The dollar now trades at 88 yen over 30% stronger than the precrisis level in 2008. So how does the new Japanese government see this. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and the Bank of Japan have made comments suggesting that they favor a stronger yen, making imports cheaper to help spark a rebound in consumer spending missing in Japan since the 1980's. This would reduce the dependence on exports for growth, something that severely hurt Japan and Germany when the world economy took a dive late last year in the global financial crisis.

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Proof that this is not an ordinary deep recession like those in the post war period comes in the way foreign trade is reacting in this downturn. Already evidence of this has been seen in the way Germany has been affected because of slowing exports from China to the US. German exports to China have declined as the Chinese export model comes under severe stress. A similiar situation is playing out for Japan. Now new proof of the drop in foreign trade is emerging in Commerce Department figures. Combined exports and imports of the USA dropped 18% in 4 months July to November, to $326 billion from $398 billion. Two thirds of this drop was in imports. So China and Japan's exports to the USA are severely affected. Japan showed a 27% decline in exports in November, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, and imports dived 14%. According to calculations by the WSJ, Germany had 11.8% decline in foreign trade in November, and similiar numbers for France and Britain. Chief US Economist at IHS Global Insight, Nigel Gault, says this is going to be the worst global recession since World War II. Combined with what is happening to inventories, (see links) and what is happening in housing, banking, the auto industry, and other industries, the complications of non-transparent packaged financial products clogging the American financial system, the hugely indebted consumer (see links), and the $2.1 trillion and rising cost of the stimulus and bailouts needed by one estimate, suggest that the recovery forecast for 2009-2010 does not take into account all these simultaneously occurring patterns and developments working together. ...

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Carmen Reinhart formerly at the Federal Reserve, says after a severe banking crisis it takes about 4 years to see a return to normal growth. With the current crisis having other facets like the overextended consumer intertwined with banking crisis, it is likely that it would take this long. He cautions business not to be overoptimistic.

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The Bank of Mexico, Mexico's central bank, cuts interest rates by half a percentage point to 3% in June 2014. The consumer price index is at 3.4% for 12 months through mid-May, and the central bank sees the inflation target of 3% by early 2015 as achievable. The central bank's estimate for GDP growth in 2014 was lowered to 2.8% from 3.5%. GDP growth was annualized 1.1% for the 1st quarter of 2014. Mexico has failed to live up to the growth expectations after the new Nieto administration's efforts to jumpstart the economy and opening up of the state oil industry to foreign investment. The policy changes of the Nieto administration set the future course of the economy and will take time to deliver results in economic growth. More effective administration and execution is needed for economic growth.