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LNG prices have declined in 2024 to a fraction of what they were from $70 per mmBTU in 2022 with the Ukraine war to about $10 in Jan 2024. India's state owned Petronet signed a 7.5 million ton LNG deal for 20 years with Qatar at the reduced prices. For the world it is a good thing as India moves to natural gas from coal when about 60% of the increased pollution in 2013-2021 is coming from India by some estimates. This translates into climate change. The goal is to go from 6% for natural gas in energy mix in 2013 to 15% by 2030. Few people realize what this means outside India- that every additional dollar that was added to the nation's energy bill was a dollar not going to essential building of modern rail and transport infrastructure, into new colleges, into new health infrastructure hospitals, into logistics for manufacturing hubs, into digital and modernizing the economy. This during the pandemic has meant free rations of food for hundreds of millions in the rural areas which have been continued into 2024. It meant accessing at the lowest possible price, buying at the right time, and buying oil and gas from a wide range of suppliers. WSJ's Megha Mandavia looks at this effort.  ...

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The issues raised by the storage of residue from Canadian oil sands production processed into coke at midwestern oil refineries. The Marathon refinery in Detroit processes this residue for export companies such as Oxbow owned by the Koch Brothers, which then export this to China, India, Mexico and other S. American countries. A huge open pile of this dirty coke is seen along the Detroit river in May 2013. Residents in Detroit and Windsor ask if Detroit is considered a dumping ground?

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For the first time Ukrainian faces doing great work in wartime, staying calm in unbelievable stress, as part of Ukraine Rail, can now be seen. The amazing work done by Ukrainian Railways for helping get refugees to Poland from cities like Kharkiv and Kviv hard hit by shelling, is shown in this Guardian picture essay. On the return trip the trains bring back humanitarian aid from Poland sent by the US and European Union countries. The Ukrainian Railways has 230,000 workers and all of them have remained in the country to operate the trains and train stations in this war and refugee crisis. Many of the trains operate in darkness into stations that are dimly lit. "The soul is torn and the heart aches, as a train driver I see what is going on," says Chumak, 43, the train driver for the Kviv to Lviv trains for evacuation of women, children and other refugees. At the peak 200,000 people were travelling every day going west to Lviv, trains were free of charge for everyone with women and children having priority. In the first 2 weeks of the war 2 million passengers were taken to safety. Shown here also is the train driver Yaroshenko, 36, for Train No. 82  the Uzhorod to Kviv train going to the Slovakian border. During the journey the train lights are turned off near Kviv or anywhere that is dangerous, as he says who knows who might be lurking nearby. He sees himself as part of the Ukrainian war effort. Tetjana, 36, and her daughter Sofia, 5, are shown on a train to Przemysyl in Poland. She worked as a train conductor on evacuation trains till she decided to take the refugee train herself for the sake of her daughter. If tracks are damaged, they are quickly repaired. Territorial defense units protect the key places and bridges so that the risk is reduced, though shrapnel from missile attacks elsewhere can damage windows of trains.   ...

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Nasdaq OMX Group CEO, Robert Greifeld, says Janet Yellen and the U.S. Fed Open Market Committee should exercize caution in increasing interest rates in 2014. He cites the heavy risk for long term investor outlook and psychology of the Fed moving too quickly in increasing interest rates, because of the steep drop in oil prices, the crash of the ruble, slowdown in Europe, deflationary trends in the eurozone and Japan, and slow growth in China. The Fed now has more room for taking a cautious approach says Greifeld, as wage growth is tepid, the dollar is strong, and oil prices are down significantly.

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President Goodluck Jonathan as "Mr. Clean" aroused many of the same hopes now aroused by the election of Buhari as president of Nigeria. Under Goodluck Jonathan Nigeria's foreign reserves declined from $50 billion to $33 billion, and there is $1 billion in the sovereign wealth fund. About $20 billion in pilfering of state funds was reported by the Central Bank of Nigeria, but no action was taken by Jonathan. Indians may pride themselves on a better performance, yet prime minister Singh of India, seen as "Mr. Clean," allowed auctioning of telecom licenses in the second term, that had to be cancelled because of corruption. Throughout emerging markets not just in oil producing countries, poverty remains entrenched, because funds that should go into infrastructure and services are misused, which creates a disincentive for foreign investment, further adding to the problems in these countries. India and Nigeria are the two fastest growing countries in the planet, and the unspoken fear is that the demographic dividend with so many young people will be wasted by corrupt and inefficient management of the economy and resources of the two countries. The time lost in the last years of the Singh administration and the four years of the Jonathan administration will never be regained, the hopes of millions of young people are dashed again and again, and the goodwill of Europe and the U.S. eager to participate with the latest technologies in the development of the two countries, as they have done in China, is wasted....

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A manufacturing defect led to an oil leak and and explosive engine failure for a Qantas Airbus A380 .

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Goldstein at the Energy Policy Research Foundation sees a moderation in demand for oil holding the increase to less than 1 million barrels a day. Goldstein sees improvements in crude oil supply, spare refining capacity,and product inventories which should help moderate prices. A lot depends on how the slowdown in the US affects Russia, India, China and Brazil. China's export based economy is likely to be affected and India and Russia to a lesser extent. Already the stock markets worldwide have come down in synchronized fashion in January 2007 leading to action by the Federal Reserve in the USA. There is likely to be a slowing down worldwide with Europe and India and Russia doing better than the USA. The USA may already be in recession. On the supply side the investments in Saudi Arabia and other places in OPEC and production increase in Russia should lead to supply increase of 2.5 million barrels a day according to analysts. At these supply and demand levels prices could range from $65 to $80, with a consensus of $80 under present conditions. There is a possibility of it going down to the $60 range if global economic conditions get worse and consequently demand decreases more. A price in the $60 range will still be needed to increase the incentives of exploration and production of new oil sources and to pay the higher costs of exploration and drilling for oil, especially in remote difficult locations like Russian Siberia and in deep sea offshore locations....

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This report on Danish wind energy company Orsted, looks at the journey of the largest developer of wind energy in the world from a company sending natural gas from North Sea to Europe to a joint developer with Denmark's Vestas of offshore wind farms. Last year Orsted, pronounced Ehrr-sted in Danish for the O and named after a Danish scientist, decided to invest $57 billion in offshore wind farms by 2027. It was not easy and the path required a bold vision and bold action to invest in wind energy for the long term even as debt piled up from losses in natural gas competing with coal, climate change committments were not yet strong, subsidies were required to make wind energy competitive, and debt was piling up. It would take a decade of hard work and technological innovation to produce wind energy that could outcompete coal and natural gas on cost without subsidies. The year is 2009 with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. The predecessor company to Orsted was losing money in natural gas with lower cost coal energy generation in Europe at the time. Yet the mood was changing governments were willing to invest in renewables. In 2012 a new CEO Paulsen did a review of 12 businesses of this Danish energy company and decided wind energy was the only one with long term prospects. The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference created new awareness for the need to come up with a long term solution for energy that has no negative health effects and is renewable. That Conference set a goal of 20% for renewable energy by 2020 in the total mix for Europe up from 14%. Paulsen saw an opportunity in the crisis at the company then called Danish Oil and Natural Gas. The new company was called Orsted and the old divisions in fossil energy were sold to invest in wind farms offshore. The way Paulsen saw the situation was that the company had to take radical action whether it wanted to do so or not. By 2012 Danish pension funds were investing in large offshore wind farms of Orsted, taking a stake of as much as 50% in the Nysted wind farm. The Danish government which owned 80% of Orsted thought its projects were risky. Hard work with Vestas which builds the turbines in Denmark paid off in developing a huge new turbine that would bring costs down 65% comparing 2020 with 2012.  In 2018 the European Union was spending about 92 billion euros or $112 billion on energy subsidies including to wind farms. Britain also heavily subsidized offshore wind farms such as Hornsea 1 at about $198 a megawatt hour for 15 years double the electricity price in recent years. Windy conditions and shallow waters in the North Sea were favorable. Technology was being developed with Vestas which would reduce the cost each year. By 2016 Orsted was listed in Copenhagen. The remaining oil and gas business was then sold for $1 billion. The returns are less in wind than coal and natural gas- about 7-8% a year but the big thing is that there is certainty in this compared to coal and natural gas which are volatile and uncertain. The lesson companies are learning in renewables is that with solar and wind technology can. bring down costs, a lot of hard work and creative work lies ahead, that crisis can be turned into opportunity for companies that can be focussed enough to produce results. ...

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Angola's recent election gives the country a new president Joao Lourenco. Since independence Angola is governed by the MPLA led by Jose Dos Santos. Lourenco was selected by Dos Santos to help Angola navigate a difficult period when oil prices have fallen. Dos Santos remains a key figure in Angola- his daughter heads the oil company that generates 95% of Angola's export revenues, and his son heads the sovereign wealth fund. Lourenco's wife is an executive director of the World Bank, and helped negotiate a loan from the IMF for $1.4 billion in 2009. Lorenco is a low key figure who started by joining the MPLA in the struggle for independence at the age of 20, and is seen as a person Mr. Santos is appointing as he considers retirement.

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India is becoming a major destination for foreign investment in manufacturing in many industries. The youth population 15-24 now exceeds that of China. Over the period 2015-2019 the number of youth 15-24 will increase to be close to 250 million in India in 2019, compared to a rapidly declining youth population in China of little over 150 million in 2019, according to the International Labor Organization. China's one child policy, investigation of multinationals business practices, and increasing wages in manufacturing, are reducing its attractiveness for foreign investors. Other destinations such as Russia are less attractive because of the economic crisis after falling oil prices. India also benefits from the large drop in oil prices to help reduce its chronic deficit and lower inflation- significant dividends at a critical time. Raghuram Rajan, head of the central bank, estimates the gain from the drop in oil prices at about $50 billion. Indonesia also benefits from the same trends. Prime minister Modi is reducing the bureaucratic structures and red tape that are a legacy of the Congress governments since independence in 1947, creating a new climate for business investment. ...

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About the tax impact of new tax changes in Britain for North Sea Oil. Also the government rules to attract smaller and new companies which would use new technology to extract oil from older depleted wells which it sees as working well. Higher oil prices make such extraction using latest technology feasible.

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Where changes are being made that make America stronger business leaders wholeheartedly support and value the president's work and the people on his team working on it. Brad Smith of Microsoft says of Biden on cybersecurity "he has done more in his presidency than any president ever." CEO's of auto companies (Stellantis, GM, Ford) and Intel CEO Geisinger value the investment the government is making for climate change transition and investments in rebuilding semiconductor manufacturing to level the playing field with China, something the US Chamber of Commerce never advocated. It is the policy officer of the US Chamber of Commerce who uses the word "complicated" because the positions taken by the US Chamber of Commerce are at odds with what the American people need, or are demanding of the president. If one is talking about large oil companies, so called Tech companies such as Google and Apple that are not paying their fair share of taxes, and Pharma companies that are charging exorbitant prices, the president is only doing what is best for the American people. One could see this in the recent Senate hearings with Big Pharma companies ,when out of sheer frustration the senior Republican senator Mike Braun of Indiana warned the Pharma companies, that they were following a path that he other Republicans could no longer support. Banks faced tighter regulation because of banking crises including the 2009 crisis caused by the banks that hurt workers and middle class. Business relations with the Biden administration are being shaped then by a new vision for America and the American people, to point to a brighter future, not to pull back to the past. ...

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The Petrocaribe program has cost Venzuela about $22.1 billion, according to one estimate from the University of Texas, Austin. Under the program participating countries would pay a heavily subisidized price, and received long term loans for the cost at rates of as low as 1%. Petrocaribe countries, including Jamaica, get about 100,000 barrels a day from Venezuela. Oil at $61 a barrel covers only half of Venezuela's budget, and the government has announced cuts in spending of 20%. The IMF estimates that in 2013 such oil shipments declined by 15%, and in 2014 the shipments have declined another 20%.

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By July 2011, when Solar Frontier KK's new solar panel factory is in full scale production, it will become the world's largest plant for photovoltaic cells. The parent company is Showa Shell Sekiyu KK, a Japanese oil refiner. The $1.25 billion solar-panel factory in Miyazaki prefecture is expected to open in a few months. The annual output will be 900 megawatts of photovoltaic cells. For Showa Shell the move makes sense as oil demand is declining in Japan, given a shift to cleaner burning natural gas for power generation, and adoption of hybrid cars. Showa plans to cut its oil refining capacity by 20% in 2011. And the solar business will account for 50% of the company earnings by 2014. Mr Kameda, head of the Showa Shell solar business, says his company is focussing on the market segment that is growing fast- thin-film CIS cells, made from copper, indium and selenium. These cells cost less to make and to buy, than thicker silicon based crystalline cells. The thin-film have a potential for increasing efficiency and reducing cost because they are relatively new. Showa's technology converts about 13% of sunlight into energy. Showa is also working with partners. It plans to supply panels to GE's solar energy projects, and is working with IBM to develop next-generation solar-cell material that is based on readily available materials....

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Dropping wheat and corn prices will reduce the effect on increase in inflation for food prices. A recently signed agreement for UN and Turkey to supervise exports of Ukrainian grain to world markets is showing up in declining futures prices for corn and wheat that will show up in lower food prices. A large harvest for wheat and other foodgrains in Russia and Ukraine is also having an impact. Slower economic growth in China from frequent lockdowns and the ailing property sector, could bring oil prices down from the highs. The shift to renewable energy taking on a huge impetus from recently passed legislation in the US Congress for $369 billion investment and similar moves in Europe with a 15% required reduction under new EU rules could have the same effect of pushing down fossil fuel prices from their highs. This suggests Fed chairman Powell's sense that the economy would improve in the second half is consistent with international developments. The war in Ukraine could also have a possibility of coming to a close in coming months with Russian gains in the east and Ukraine recovering lost land around the Black Sea in the south. Decades of fighting in Ukraine may have obscured the fact that the eastern parts of Ukraine voted in pro Russian governments in the past and the western parts of Ukraine have voted in pro EU governments. The war could end with a settlement around these new boundaries. This would also enhance president Biden's foreign and domestic policy achievements and help the US focus on climate change actions, building new supply chains, rebuilding its manufacturing, its leadership in science and technology, its alliances with EU, and with Japan and India in the Indo-Pacific. ...

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Some positive signs that drivers are sticking to their new fuel efficient ways even as gas prices drop below $3 a gallon in the USA mindful that the economy just got worse, jobs are shrinking, may be paying less, and the cost of groceries and other things have gone up. This will mean contiued decline in gasoline consumption that should help ease oil prices in the long run even as conservation helps reduce consumption, helps fight climate change, and sends fewer dollars overseas to pay for oil.

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The effect of Russia's economic problems in 2015, including the drop in oil prices to below $50 a barrel, would cost Russia about $200 billion, according to Russia's finance minister Anton Siluanov. In addition to lower oil prices, Russia faces higher inflation from the decline in the ruble to 67 to the dollar on Jan. 28, 2015, western sanctions, capital flight, credit downgrade and reduced access to financing for Russian companies. Siluanov says $35 billion will be spent in 2015 for anti-crisis measures to stabilize the banking system, financing for companies with lack of access to financing in capital markets, and cushioning the impact of the crisis. Russia's economy is forecast to decline by 4% in 2015, by the Bank of Russia, with double digit inflation from a weaker ruble.

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India's airline market has grown from 51 million passengers in 2010 to 138 million in 2018. 600 planes are in operation with 859 on order. The airline industry in India is experiencing intense competition and putting some airlines such as Jet Airways in trouble as they compete with low cost carriers such as Indigo.

Jet Airways has temporarily stopped operating its 115 planes on about 1000 routes as it has failed to win new funding. This could lead to higher prices. Fuel prices and depreciation of the rupee hurt Jet Airways.  A problem for Indian airlines is the thin margins and the uncertain oil price environment. Etihad Airways took a 24% stake in Jet Airways but that partnership has not prevented Jet from having problems with lenders.

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The situation in the U.S. for unemployment by state in Dec. 2011 as seen through statistics from the Labor Department. Losses in jobs at the local government level offset gains in Georgia in the private sector. Texas, Louisiana, Okalahoma, oil producing states have done well. States which suffered from the housing crisis such Florida, Arizona and Nevada, see unemployment lower than at the peak of the housing crisis. Michigan's unemployment rate is lower with the recovery in the automobile industry. North Dakota and Alaska, other oil producing states show jobs growth. For the U.S. private sector employment is up 2.8% since the low point, but job losses in local and federal governmet lead to an overall gain of 1.9%.

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Prices can top $100 a barrel, some reasons why this is possible including depleted old field and lower production relative to demand. Important article by King and Chazan because of the experts from Aramco, IEA, and Schlumberger being all pretty much aligned in their view and reasoning that not much is happening in the way of oil exploration and production is happening to meet the extra demand from India, China and deveoping countries. Aramco expert cites older depleted oil fields with a 15 year production plateau, Saddad Al- Husseini estimates that price will go up by $12 for every million barrels a day in additional demand. Nobuo Tanaka the new executive director IEA thinks supply will not keep up with demand because many oilresource rich countries are not bringing in outside investors, and also because he is not sure there will be enough investment, skilled workers and technology to to get the oil out in a timely manner. Note there have been constraints in engineering and manpower shortages. And Andrew Gould CEO of Schlumberger says that 70% of the oil fields are over 30 years old, amd just in the last four years from 2003 the demand has increased by the production thats generated from North Sea and Mexico....

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Stock markets have declined about 1% during the current banking crisis. This shows that the action taken by president Biden quickly taking over Silicon Valley Bank and closing Republic Bank is working. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the central banks of US, EU, Swiss, worked together to take immediate action. Swiss central bank and the government stepped in to arrange the backing for UBS to takeover Credit Suisse bank.  The crisis affected market sectors in differing ways. Information technology stocks were up 5.7%, energy stocks went down by 7%, bank stocks declined 6%, sensitive materials sector stocks went down by 3.5%. Risks remaining are that the loss of confidence in regional banks could affect lending. The Fed's policy of containing inflation by raising interest  rates could continue say experts leading to information tech stocks losing any gains. Any drop in the price of oil could help the economies of the US and EU, India, Japan and China. By March 15 prices of US crude had dropped for West Texas Intermediate benchmark to $67. Any drop of prices to the $60 level increases growth in the EU, US, China, India and Japan, reducing chances of a recession. ...

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These are key provisions in the biggest climate change bill in history- Tax credits that last for over a decade for zero carbon plants- these tax credits go to companies that build new sources of emissions free electricity, for wind turbines, solar panels, battery storage, geo thermal plants. Tax credits also for new technologies that capture and bury carbon dioxide from natural gas plants and industrial facilities before it escapes into the atmosphere and heats the planet. This technology is rarely used because of high costs. Incentives for electric vehicles- It extends a tax credit of $7500 for new electric vehicles. It adds a $4000 tax credit for used electric vehicles. Tax credit goes only to people earning $150,000 a year (300,000 for joint filers) for new EV's and $75,000 (150,000 for joint filers) for used EV's. Help for people to lower energy costs - $9 billion in rebates for Americans installing energy efficient electrical appliances. And a decade of tax credits for Americans installing rooftop solar, heat pumps, water heaters and electric HVAC, or electric heating, air conditioning and ventilation technologies. Investments in Domestic Manufacturing- $60 billion for investments in clean energy manufacturing in the US. This includes $30 billion for production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing. $10 billion in investment tax credits to build manufacturing facilities for electric cars and renewable energy technologies. This action is to halt the shifting of clean energy manufacturing overseas to China. $27 billion towards a green bank that would finance clean energy projects in disadvantaged communities. Cracking down on Methane- the bill places a fine on methane gas emissions from oil and gas wells and pipelines and other infrastructure. Fees of $900 per metric ton in 2024 and $1500 a metric ton in 2026 when it exceeds federally set limits.    ...

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An initial pact signed for cooperation and joint projects between China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC).