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Without the patience and skills of S. Jaishankar peace at the Indian border with China could not have been restored in 2022. Here he describes the challenge of border incursions when he still called on his counterpart Wang Yi and maintained friendly communications, asking Yi not to let China complicate matters so that solutions could be found and things did not deteriorate further. At the time of tense Ukraine dispute in Europe, Jaishankar who was earlier the Indian ambassador to China, navigated this period of tension with China using his knowledge of China and how best to continue the diplomatic communications.  Less well known is the work put in by Jaishakar to bring citizen to citizen contact between Indians and Chinese by setting up such intercultural and educational programs in several Chinese cities as Ambassador to India. Jaishankar had the foresight to know that this would be important for the future. Yet these contacts are only a small fraction of the potential contacts between India and China on a citizen to citizen direct basis that are needed. Never is that more true than today with the wars in Europe, and the need for peaceful development in Asia. China is still a middle income country and India modernizing to become a middle income country. Both Europe and the US are far ahead in development than China and India. Jaishankar was appointed the Foreign Secretary of India in 2015 and in 2019 Foreign Minister of India in the Modi administration. He was the longest serving Ambassador to China for about 5 years in 2009-2013. He is unique because of his having been a senior diplomat to China, Japan, Singapore and the US, and speaks Japanese and Chinese. ...

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900 million eligible voters in India means this is the largest election ever. The election will take place in 7 phases in April and May from April 11 to May 19. Votes will be counted on May 23. The election is for 543 seats in parliament, the Lok Sabha. Turnouts are high with 66% turning out in the last election that brought Mr. Modi and the BJP to power.  Unlike elections in Britain a lot is spent in each election, about $5 billion in the last election and double that this time. The U.S. elections in 2016 had spending of $6.5 billion as a comparison. Women vote at about the same rate as men and more women than men are expected to vote this time. Prime minister Modi won the last election with promises of development and infrastructure. He is delivering on infrastructure but building manufacturing and generating jobs in the formal sector remains a tougher task for any administration in 4 years. During the first term Mr. Modi made needed changes including introducing the GST tax to integrate India's fragmented market and get rid of a patchwork of regional state taxes. He introduced a whole range of projects and yojanas which are setting the stage for widening the middle class, and improving living conditions. Some of the problems such as the bad loans in the banking system date back to previous administrations and the government has taken steps to clean up this problem by refinancing banks and introducing a bankruptcy law. This has slowed GDP growth to about 7%. However this would have happened under any administration.  The brief war with Pakistan in February 2019 has added another dimension to this election with questions about whether this may help Mr. Modi because of his strong stand against terrorism camps in Pakistan.  In the end it all comes down to whether the public still believes the BJP party under Modi is best qualified to develop the infrastructure to modernize the country and improve services, and whether it can create enough of the manufacturing capabilities to generate jobs needed. It may not be that the BJP under Modi has  not made mistakes in the process of learning how best to tackle development, but whether a patchwork of regional parties led by the opposition Congress party is in a position to provide the strong decisive direction to make quick decisions on development. Getting the agreement of a number of regional parties such as the party in West Bengal state or the Uttar Pradesh state when it was under a previous administration of Mrs Mayawati means an even slower rate of decision making as it leads to lack of speedy decision making. Whether voters have short memories and forget the slow rate of infrastructure development under previous administrations or have a willingness to give the BJP a chance to show what it can do under Modi for development can eventually decide this election. An example of what this means is in how the Mumbai Metro is being pushed through to timely delivery- Metro Rail's head Mrs. Ashwini Bhide simply says she feels for the people of Mumbai who have suffered from delays in development of needed infrastructure for so long, with millions doing appalling rides in a creaky old rail system. In her view it should have been done yesterday. It is this attitude that can make or break the current administration, and whether it can get this message through to voters one more time. Most who have this attitude are aware that China is now laying enough concrete every two years than America did in the whole 20th century, as reported in the Guardian newspaper, and are equally passionate about delivery of services and rapid development of badly needed infrastructure.         ...

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Six former clerks, many of them now professors at well known law schools, Georgetown, Cornell, Yale, share their memories of Chief Justice John Paul Stevens, who retired in 2010 as the longest serving Supreme Court justice on the bench. One of the clerks remembers Stevens for his courteousness, which started with "May I ask you a question?," and did not attach importance to formal titles. Stevens showed remarkable empathy in talking to the clerks about legal cases. Another clerk remembers the time when Stevens pulled up the plaque on his wall "Small Town Lawyer of the Year: Associate Justice John Paul Stevens," as he talked about small hometowns with the clerk. It was given by the bar association of Poulsbo, Washington, and Stevens took pride in his modest beginnings. Some are amazed by his energy, he played a good game of tennis at 85, hired only 2 clerks instead of four to do a lot of the work, and would join the clerks for discussion on different aspects of the law.

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The cost of fixing the nation's financial system could be around $2.5 trillion with an additional $350 of the second TARP funding and the rest of the money coming from the Federal Reserve through the Fed's ability to print money and from private investors. About $1 trillion of this is to compensate for the lack of issuance of securities backed by consumer loans of $1.2 trillion between 2006 and 2008, so that credit markets can function again like they used to. Another component of the plan is to give banks more government money which they will now be expected to lend to consumers and businesses. But a key feature of the plan much awaited by markets was the bad bank or aggregator bank solution which would enable banks to transfer bad assets to this bank. And on this one Geithner said very little so it was adisappointment for financial markets. Also the plan lacked details and was more broad brush and small on specifics. Another area on which Geithner said little is how the government will tackle rising forecolosures and keep people in their homes, which in turn would help stabilize housing prices. But by building up expectations and offering little of specifics on the bad bank solution Geithner earned withering criticism from Senators Kerry, Shelby, Frank, and others. A former managing director at Morgan Stanley Frank Pallotta, now aconsultant to buyers and sellers of distressed mortgages, says the fundamental problem still is the pricing and the gap between what abank like Chase thinks its mortgage is worth of 75 cents to the dollar and aprospective buyer who thinks its worth 45 cents or 25 cents. This is a huge gap and would be expensive to fill in. A bad bank one analyst says could be very expensive and this is why Geithner acknowledges the goal of setting up a fund of some $1 trillion. ...

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An August survey by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, shows 40% of the country's manufacturers saying they would shift production and R&D facilities overseas if the yen remains at 85 to the dollar. It has dropped below that. Nissan will make 71% of its cars overseas in 2010, compared to 66% in 2009. Murata Manufacturing plans to double its foreign output to 30% by March 2013. By buying Dutch printer maker Oce NV in March, Canon Inc., saw its overseas output jump to 48% for the first half of 2010. Toyota is on track to produce 57% of its output overseas in 2010 , compared to 48% in 1995. The popular Prius will now be built at a plant in Bangkok, Thailand. Sony did 20% of its television manufacturing in Japan in 2010, it is aiming to do 50% in 2011. As a result Sony showed a profit for the April-June quarter, after 6 straight years of losses. Its also important to note that when inflation is taken into account the yen has not strengthened the way it appears, which reduces domestic pressures to dampen the yen's rise. Tohru Sasaki, head of foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, says that in inflation-adjusted terms, the yen is 30% below the rate it reached in April 1995. U.S. consumer prices have risen by 69% since 1990, in Japan the prices rose only 8.5% during the same period. In inflation adjusted terms the April 1995 exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar would be 56 yen to the dollar today. Japan's exporters can also benefit from the fact that a large part of Japanese trade is denominated in yen- according to Japan's Ministry of Finance 48% of exports to Asia were paid for in yen in 2009. Like China and Germany, Japan remains highly dependent on exports for growth- which provide two thirds of its growth. The yen's strength increases the outflow of production facilities. In July 2010, 10.3 millon workers were employed in manufacturing in Japan, down from 12 million in 2002. Japan's unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2009....

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Investors such as hedge funds and mutual funds that are investing in U.S. mortgage backed securities in the hope of returns in the range of 6-12%. With the recovery in prices since 2010 some of these mortgages bundled into securities are going for about 70 cents on the dollar.

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Chrysler reported second quarter 2012 income of $436 million, compared with a loss of $370 million in the prior year quarter. The prior year quarter included charges for repaying U.S. government loans. First quarter 2012 income was $473 million. Fiat reported a loss of 246 million euros for the second quarter 2012. The combined operations Fiat-Chrysler reported aloss of 103 million euros. This shows how the effort by Sergio Marchionne to takeover Chrysler and turn it around have proved to be a very successful move for Fiat. With a relatively small investment Fiat is now a majority owner of Chrysler having invested mainly its management knowhow and leadership.

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The WHO, World Health Organization, comes under criticism for failing to warn about the pandemic. President Trump says the U.S. finances the WHO with $450 million but the WHO has opposed some of the basic common sense approaches to the virus such as early quarantines and suspension of flights from virus hotspots. Including opposing the U.S. action taken by president Trump on January 27, 2020 to close all passenger flights between U.S. and China. A 14 day quarantine was put into effect for Hubei province. About 8.5 million passengers visited the U.S. from China in 2018 according to the U.S.Transportation Department. Reports show Chinese cities deserted on NYT January 30, but infections only 1300 a week earlier going up to 12,000 and only 259 deaths. President Trump says the world was misled by the WHO on the extent of the crisis developing in China, as he sets up a review of the WHO's role in the crisis and on funding by the U.S. President Trump says the crisis in the U.S. would be much larger if some of the 8.5 million passengers from China arrived in U.S. cities. He also says the decision was his own intuition about what was happening with health experts not realizing the extent of the crisis as there was very little data on the crisis. Most of the experts Mr. Fauci and Dr Birx were also not aware at the time of the gravity of the crisis, and some leading epidemiologists at American universities even called it an emotional reaction. ...

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China's slowdown may be much worse than is generally thought. Germany went through this thinking that it was relatively safe as it had no housing bubble and no consumer debt like the US and the UK. But the drop in demand from China and other countries has led already to a contraction in the German economy by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2008, expected to worsen to 0.8% in 2009. China's National Statistics Bureau announced a 4% decline in electricity output inOctober from a year earlier. This is a result partly of factories manufacturing for export cutting back as their orders decline. There was a 17 drop in production of pig iron and crude steel in October and a 0.7% fall in output in the output sector. From all this it appears that even without the beggar thy neigbor policies of the 1930's, even without the protectionism of that period and even with the global coordination of the G20 and the G7 countries, its hard not to see the impact in one place flowing through to other places. The loss of export markets in the USA for Chinese export factories leads to this slowdown in China which in turn now needs much fewer machinery imports from Germany leading to a contraction in Germany. See the link to German economy in WSJ November 14, 2008. These effects show up in an exaggerated manner with economic contraction because of the heavy dependence on exports in Germany to China, and heavy dependence on exports in China to the USA, and the heavy consumption of Chinese exports in the USA, all ocurring in an exaggerated unsustainable way considering the American spending binge and the zero savings rate in the USA, the pressures on the environment with runaway growth in China, and the lack of any domestic led consumption in Germany. China's infrastructure spending can provide some growth along with the stimulus spending but much of the export led growth may disappear. The stimulus spending could help prevent a contraction in the Chinese economy but may deliver only a few points of growth, way off from the runaway over 10% growth of two decades which was heavily dependent on manufacturing exports. How badly Chinese exports are affected depends on how badly the US market is affected for Chinese imports. Higher unemployment in the US if the auto industry sees a collapse in its market in 2009, would lead to lower consumption in the US as laid off workers cut their purchases at Walmarts and Targets and at other retailers, and this would drive imports from China to even lower levels, wiping off a couple of percentage points of China's GDP growth rate. ...

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Petrobras and the discovery 200 miles offfshore of the Tupi field with estimated reserves of 5-8 billion barrels of light crude oil. As Brazil is self sufficient in energy with its own ethanol industry helping substitute ethanol for oil at the pump, it can become a major exporter with this find. However even with Petrobras technology and expertise in offshore drilling its a challenge as the oil is 4.5 miles below the oceans surface, and involves drilling through 7000 feet of water and 17000 feet of sand rock and massive salt layer. Cost could approach $20 billion according to analysts with current inflation in oil drilling rig costs. It involves challenges like building floating liquefied natural gas plants. Gabrielli, the Petrobras CEO thinks Petrobras has the expertise to develop it on its own. If oil majors are given the chance to join in the development the investment terms will be ones that favor Brazil. Gabrielli pointed this out saying that Brazil had already incurred most of the risk in exploration offshore so the oil majors have far less risk and Brazil should invite them only on its own terms if needed. The Tupi field puts Brazil ahead of Canada in oil reserves and in the leagues of China and Nigeria, with new Brazilian reserves at 17.2 billion from the 12.2 billion barrels currently. Brazil has invested in refineries with 2 new refineries coming up in 2010 and 2014 to increase refining capacity by 40%. It is also investing to convert heavy crude oil into diesel and $8.6 billion to reduce sulfur at 11 refineries. The Tupi field will take about 7 years to develop. Similiarly the Kashgan field in the Caspian in Kazakhstan is also in difficult in this case icy and gases filled environment that will take years for a Eni led consortium to develop. When oil does come will the demand situation have changed with new conservation taking hold in the developed world and the cars in developing countries more like the Tata Nano at 54 miles per gallon consuming less gasoline? Even with increase in energy needs of developing countries, improved efficiency and new technology for conservation brought into developing countries could if not significantly reduce, at least moderate demand. To the point where prices drop from $100 a barrel to something more affordable to developing countries....

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Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

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Declining manufacturing wages in the U.S. and the return of manufacturing jobs. Indiana's experience with new manufacturing plants.

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Russian economy is faltering under the strain of the global financial crisis. The stock market is plunging, with the RTS Index down 19% on October 6, 2008, and the market down 60% since the high in May, 2008. Construction spending is winding down. Th economy growth rate was 8.1% in 2007 but its slipping. If oil prices hit $50 and they were already at $78 on October 10, 2008, then says Anders Aslund at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, there will be a sharp decline in the growth rate. Moscow analysts say the growth rate could drop to 4%. For Americans Russia may seem remote excpt for investors. But in a global economy there are connections to emerging markets and Russia is one big emerging market, next to China, India and Brazil. When General Motors shares dropped 31% and Ford's 22% on one day on October 9, 2008, the news that spooked the markets was ofcourse a credit watch and questions about liquidity from Standard and Poors rating agency, but alsoimportant was that the one bright spot for GM and Ford in Europe and in Russia in particular was disappearing as GM sales declined in Europe and in Russia. In the prior 12 months GM had seen sales jump by 40% in Russia giving it 10% of a car market that passed Germany recently as the largest car market in Europe. Couple of important things about Russia. Russians today are big spenders, savings are small and Russians do not trust their banks so bank deposits are very low. Household deposits are equivalent of 17% of GDP, compared with 45% in the USA. Only 4% of Russians trust commercial banks according to a poll by National Financial Research Agency in Moscow. So Russia depends on the outside world for much odf the cash flowing through its financial system. Foreigners purchased two thirds of the $170 billion in bonds isued by Russian companies and foreign banks put up half of the accumulated $900 billion in bank loans including almost all longterm debt estimates Moscow investment bank Troika Dialog. With global credit markets in a lockdown mode Russia is simply running short of cash. The government has $560 billion in foreign exchange reserves from years of high oil prices plus $160 billion in two sovereign wealth funds with most of this money in fixed income securities abroad as a rainy day cushion should oil prices tumble. On October 7 the governmet announced $36 billion in emergency loans to Russian banks following earlier pledges in September of $150 billion in loans and relief for Russian companies in danger of defaulting on international debts. One danger here is that about 55% of outstanding corporate loan are of maturity less than 1 year. One of Russia's largest developers Mirax Group is putting 50 projects on hold as bank financing for developers has almost ceased. On the other hand Russia's financial sector is relatively small and the credit crisis cannot hurt Russia as much as it will USA ad Europe. Bank loans account for 10% of corporate finance and the bond market is only a decade old, so about half of all capital investment by companies comes from retained earnings. And Russia has huge needs for investments in infrastructure after years of underinvestment, a stable political structure, an educated workforce, and an economy that is just getting started. As Secretary Paulson answered questions after the G7 meeting October 10, this was another point on the minds of the secretary and questoners, the hope that emerging markets like Russia, India, and China would continue to grow though slower than before, even as the US and Europe slipped into a long recession, and provide a little cushion to the global economy....

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John Taylor, a professor of economics at Stanford, points out that the numbers being thrown back and forth in the budget debate can be confusing. He suggests a better way to look at this. The U.S. budget was 20% of GDP in 2007, and has been at or below that level in recent years, before the higher spending to counteract the effects of the 2008 financial crisis. As the economy recovers and private investment increases it makes sense to bring the spending back to levels where it has been- spending levels that do not endanger the country's credit rating and are a prudent way to manage the nation's finances. Taylor asks the question- if the U.S. got by by spending 20% of GDP in 2007, then why is it not possible to do this in future years when the GDP will be higher. In 2000 spending was actually 18.2% of GDP. Taylor says that with higher incomes people will be moving into higher tax brackets which should increase revenues in future years. In three years since 2009 the spending levels are up to 24.4%. Under this scenario private investment would make up for lower government spending and debt, leading to higher employment and GDP as business confidence rises. ...

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The night of January 29, 2011, in Alexandria Egypt, as the Egyptian people of all classes of society, ordinary citizens, overcome massive police presence and tear gas. The writer directs the global emergencies program at Human Rights Watch. He saw firsthand the attacks by security forces of the Mubarak regime on unarmed protestors calling for Mubarak to step down after 30 years of autocratic rule, and the restoration of basic freedoms.

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Toyota reported a 77% drop in earnings in the first quarter of 2011, with a large loss in the Japanese operations. The strong yen trading at 81 yen to the dollar is a significant factor. And for the first time Toyota's CFO Satoshi Ozawa said "we have reached the limits of profitable Japan based production at 80 yen to the dollar." Japanese operatios lost $2.4 billion. Honda reported a 38% drop in earnings for the 1st quarter.

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Growing protests in Brazilian cities of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, Curitiba, Belem, Brasilia, over inflation and the cost of living, government lavish spending on soccer stadiums even as public services of transportation, education and health care are being neglected. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered with one estimate of 100,000 for protests in Rio. The protests started with the Free Fare Movement in Porto Alegre, which calls for lower transportation fares, organizing demonstrations against an increase in fares.

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Economist Paul Krugman points out the risks of a trade war in the tariffs announced for steel and aluminium by president Trump. Yet he accepts that he advocated stronger action on China's currency in 2009-2010 when the U.S. economy was weaker. In the past on the TPP agreement proposed by president Obama, Krugman said that it would have an insignificant impact as most of the gains on trade were already made. Here Krugman is critical of the language used by president Trump about trade wars being "easy."  This is taken out of context though as president Trump is saying that it is easy in the context of a country enjoying a $100 billion surplus with the U.S., because that country is going to have incentives to maintain a good trading relationship with the U.S. Essentially this means that the steel industry in the U.S. benefits. China also benefits as it closes many of the older steel plants that led to overproduction. This would reduce overcapacity in China's steel industry, a problem China's economic planners see as a priority. China already is making the shift to higher technology products and this process will be accelerated, as it puts less emphasis on steel and metals as it did in its earlier stage of development. As a result contrary to textbook economics this has the potential to be a win-win solution for the U.S. and China in the long run. So little was done under the Bush and Obama administrations to manage trading relationships with other countries so that the interests of small communities across the U.S. were protected from unfair trade- that Reagan administration trade expert Robert Lighthizer took up the cause of the U.S.,workers in these communities. Surveys showed U.S. public opinion also had shifted among educated, professionals and middle class on this issue by 2015, against unfair trade that hurt U.S. interests. Robert Lighthizer is now the Trade Representative for the U.S. in the Trump administration. Reports in the WSJ about the discussion within the Trump economic council, show Gary Cohn favored not imposing the tariffs on steel and aluminum. Lighthizer advocated the tariffs and was able to convince the president.  For Trump this presents a win-win situation, as a mild response by China -and other trading nations that have enjoyed a favorable situation in the past -with its huge surplus and favorable trading relationship with the U.S. would present a win for the president. Economist Krugman accepts this when he says tariffs in the current context of the trading field- that is more favorable to other countries- are not such a big deal, only the use of such policy that is likely to endanger world trade.  As in much of the debate that takes place this adds to the headlines today yet provides delayed and limited relief to communities across the U.S. devastated by world trade as documented by experts who studied trade patterns and their effect on regions across the U.S.  As the WSJ points out in one report the trade deficit itself may continue to grow under president Trump because of other factors. The U.S. dollar surged 8% during the last 2 years of the Obama administration with the economic recovery underway. With Trump's election win the dollar surged another 3%. This may play a bigger role in the direction of the trade deficit than the new steel tariffs announced by president Trump. Workers and unions matter. As TPP pushed by Democratic party president Obama was opposed by the unions, and by the auto industry (workers and auto companies) in the midwestern states which suffered a hollowing out in the last decade. A WSJ survey after the election showed Clinton received 56% support from union workers in 2018 compared to 65% for president Obama in the 2012 election. Some of that erosion in support may come from Obama's TPP stand fervently opposed by the unions and workers in the auto industry. A similar situation took place in Ontario with hollowing out of the auto industry in this large industrial state in Canada and led to the rejection of the Conservative government and election of the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau. This lesson is so far lost in the Democratic Party's debate.     ...

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Eric Bellman's intervew with Rajiv Lall, chief executive officer of Infrastructure Development Finance, India's largest infrastructure financing company. Lall says the conditions are right for power development to be the next telecom of India's growth story, with some of the same impact that telecom has had bringing mobile phones to hundreds of millions of people in India. IDFC expects 20% growth in net profit in 2010 and 30% in 2011.