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Hilsenrath goes over some of the troubling signs behind the postive job numbers for April 2014. Part time workers looking for full time work actually increased in April 2014 to 7.5 million. More individuals in prime working years of 25-54 dropped out of the work force discouraged and stopped looking for work, with the percentage for this group who are working dropping to 80.8% in April 2014. Wage growth and worker productivity was stagnant. Donald Kohn, a former vice chairman of the Fed, joins other economists who are puzzled by the lack of wage growth and the large number of long term unemployed behind the positive job numbers of 288,000 for April 2014.

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With firms cautious about hiring the number of temporary workers is increasing. About one fourth of new jobs created in the second quarter of 2012 in the U.S. were for temporary workers. In June 2012 of the 80,000 jobs created a third were for temporary workers. About 8 million Americans work part-time. This is an increase of half a million since March 2012 for people unable to find a full time job. The number of full time workers has declined by 700,000 since March 2012, and self employed workers have increased by 381,000 since March 2012. This gives the picture of a labor market with employers unwilling to commit and hiring temps, using overtime to meet demand.

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People in California did not feel the early blows of the coronavirus like New York. This is now turning into a disadvantage as people in California have now failed to follow the guidelines for social distancing and masks as carefully as they should be. The state reopening  took place as the case numbers were increasing as the economy and unemployment became an issue.  State hospitalizations are up 40% on July 1 from 2 weeks ago. Percentage of tests coming positive are close to 6% but in some counties much higher- in Riverside county has rate positive in tests at 11.7% and bars are only recommended to close. In Los Angeles county it is 8.2%. On June 20 the day after the bars were allowed to open 500,000 people visited bars in Los Angeles County. A big problem is that for lockdown the whole state was asked to lockdown by the governor. For reopening it is done by county and each county is doing this differently. Pressure to reopen has led to counties with increasing and poor metrics for cases still reopening. Some counties felt pressured to open when other counties had reopened. Even when a county such as Riverside or Los Angeles county is doing poorly the governor waits 14 days for it to be on a watch list before acting. This is too long for the extremely contagious virus giving it time to spread quickly. Governor Newson is now facing serious problems tackling the coronavirus. ...

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Spain's economy in 2017 is back to its size before the collapse in 2010 with the eurozone debt crisis and failing housing market. The unemployment rate has dropped from 26% to 18%, still high but gradually coming down. The economy has improved competitiveness and the auto industry is improving exports providing 17% of total exports. The SEAT auto plant has undergone a major transformation. Here Goodman of the NYT describes how this economic recovery is taking place in the port city of Barcelona.

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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...

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Krugman sees France has a fairly successful country with a strong safety net, contrary to perceptions. He asks then why the vote for Le Pen of the National Front, with its perceived racism and ideology. He points to the bureaucrats in Brussels and how they are perceived in Britain, the way austerity policies were favored by the European Union and Germany. Much of the reporting to date shows the effects of neglect for rural communities and small towns and the loss of jobs as the reason for discontent with established parties. It appears that this has affected the vote more than the anti-European Union message. During the last debate Macron was more effective in showing that there were advantages for France in remaining connected to the global community and to remain in the eurozone, calling it a huge mistake to follow Le Pen's policies. 

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Frederick Harris of Columbia University says there is a price to be paid for a black president and it may just be too much for the average black person. There is a difference betwen symbols and substance, betwen a role model and accountability in a representative democracy, which is sadly lacking when the black elites, clergy and politicians fail to debate the issues about the problems facing the black community. Problems related to the increasing poverty among black Americans, and the 14% unemployment for black people. There is he says a strange reticience among the black elite to hold the president accountable on these issues just as they would have done for any Democratic president, even one who was as popular with blacks as Mr. Clinton. He says the experience with Obama is not even remotely comparable to the transformative nature of the work of Rev. Martin Luther King in the black community. It may stem from Obama's multiracial background, growing up in many countries, his elite education and being part of a liberal elite more than of the black community. The price is too high in economic and social terms for the poor or average black person and it has created a divide between the average black person and the black elite, with different concerns and different priorities. Harris points out that poor and poverty are words not mentioned often by Obama. Related to this is the foreclosure crisis in which ordinary black people were hardest hit with no effective help from the president to homeowners badly needing relief. Sheila Bair of the FDIC and Martin Feldstein advocated aggressive help for homeowners under water which did not come from the president. Showing not just the limits of a black presidency, but false hopes, inexperience and lack of leadership in issues that mattered to all Americans in the housing and foreclosure crisis. A populist from Kansas, as Sheila Bair describes herself, had the right instincts and courage of convictions which the president lacked and the entire country needed....

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David Brooks of the NYT describes the approach taken by British prime minister David Cameron and his Conservative Party government to help the working class poor in Britain, and tackle the social roots of poverty. He says an American adaptation similar to this is badly needed in the Republican Party, with the candidates in the election providing solutions from an old rulebook. Only after Trump's popularity with appeals to less educated older Americans has the Republican leadership responded, with Speaker Ryan helping organize a forum on poverty under the Jack Kemp Foundation- emphasis was placed on education, work, opportunity and accountability for anti-poverty programs in the discussion moderated by Ryan and Senator Tim Scott. Less attention was paid to the other social aspects mentioned here by Brooks, and cited by Cameron when he described the inadequacy of traditional solutions from the right and left of the political spectrum. Cameron outlined the principles of his anti-poverty plans called "Life Chances Strategy," in a speech on Jan. 11, 2016, in north London, with the entrie transcript on the gov.uk website. Cameron acknowledged in the speech that social issues including single parent families, and other social problems such as long term unemployment, can make it harder for some people to use self-reliance and personal responsibility in a growing economy as a way to grasp opportunities. Cameron proposes a combination of economic, social and job growth strategies. His second term plans include 30 hours a week of free childcare for 3 and 4 year olds so both parents can work, parental maternity leave, expansion of Troubled Families Program, in addition to the introduction of National Living Wage, tax cuts, universal credit. In tackling social aspects of the problem Cameron cited the need for development in the early years of childhood, the huge importance of family, social connections and experiences, informal mentors, cultural experiences, broadenend horizons, that enable young people to acquire language skills, character and resilience. Second term projects include expanding reach of high performing schools to deprived areas, emphasis on core English, math, science, history, geography Ebacc skills, a 1 billion pound investment in the National Citizens Service by 2021, a plan to transform housing estates including rebuilding from scratch, additional 1 billion pounds to provide mental health treatment including treatment within 2 weeks in homes and communities. Throughout Cameron's "Life Chances strategy" is aimed at tackling not just the material dimensions of poverty, but also what he describes is broken in Britain- "the paucity of opportunity."...

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U.S. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen, says the Fed will be prepared to respond to the "twists and turns" in the recovering U.S. economy in 2014-2015. In many ways Yellen finds the recovery "disappointingly slow and consistent expectations for a pickup in growth dashed over a number of years." She sees the labor market behaving in "some perplexing ways and showing patterns that are novel." The high rate of long term unemployed is an abiding concern and Yellen says a healthy job market is "more than 2 years away." This clarifies remarks made at her first press conference, which were interpreted to mean the Fed would raise rates in a much shorter time frame. U.S. stock markets responded favorably to her remarks after declines and volatility over several weeks following the previous press conference.

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Job loss nubers for 2009 from the Labor Dept are- February 681,000, March 699,000, April 539,000 as govt payrolls expanded by 72,000. About 8.9 million people work parttime, adding in the people who have given up looking for a job, the underemployment rate is 15.8% in April 2009.

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Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

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After failing to come to an agreement for early elections with the central government in Madrid, Catalan leader Puigdemont says he will put the matter of secession from Spain to the region's parliament. This makes it certain that the government in Madrid will assume emergency constitutional powers over Catalonia. Mr. Puigdemont is the head of a coalition that has 72 seats of 135 in the Catalan parliament. As this NYT report points out Mr Puigdemont heads a coalition of separatist parties that won about 48% of the vote in parliamentary elections of Catalonia in 2015. He announced a referendum in 2017 which created more uncertainty because Spain made an effort to suppress voting and many Catalans stayed away from the voting booths. Other reports show it is not clear that a majority of Catalans favor all out independence from Spain, though they oppose the way prime minister Rajoy of Spain has handled the crisis. Control of the police and broadcasters under Article 155 of the Constitution is a step Mr Rajoy now plans to take. Mr. Rajoy says it was a decision forced on Spain by the "capricious decisions" of Mr. Puigdemont, and that it endangers Spain's economic recovery from the financial crisis with high unemployment. Puigdemont faces an internal revolt inside his separatist party if he backs down, according to this report in the NYT. As a result of this Spain is likely to move ahead with constitutional backed rule by the central government over Catalonia till a solution can be found. Mr. Puigdemont's action has created the biggest crisis for Spain since it moved to democratic elections in 1978, coming at a time when national elections led to no clear winner and the economic recovery was just beginning. Public perception is that both Mr. Puigdemont and Mr. Rajoy appear to have handled the situation poorly. ...

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Midwestern companies like USG, Kohler and Whirlpool provide products for new housing. As they layoff employees in the housing crisi, the midwest feels a double blow both from housing and the auto business which is also in deteriorating situation. The unemployment rate in the region of Wisconsin, illinois, indiana, michigan and Ohio is 5.7% in july, and Michigan's 7.2 %, according to government data.

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Al Maktoum is prime minister of Dubai. He points out some important facts about the Arab world. About half of the 300 million people in the Arab world are under the age of 25. Unemploment is very high among these 150 million Arab youth. About 50% of the jobless are youth, according to the prime minister. About 65 million of the Arabs are illiterate, and 10 million children under the age of 25 are not enrolled in any school. He points out that with so little education, the Arab youth are especially vulnerable to propaganda that creates extremism and is hostile to the west and the USA. One of his key points is that the Arab world is the most militarized place in the world, and spending on conflicts in the Middle East in the last 60 years is about $3 trillion. And in the last 15 years he says the spending on education which is 20% of what the world's 30 wealthiest countries spend, has dropped to 10% of that amount. And very little is being done to educate girls and give them opportunities. As a result of these convictions, Al Maktoum, who is also the ruler of Dubai and from the royal family, has committed about $3 billion to various initiatives to provide schooling to children, especially girls, and education for young people. This makes him one of the more enlightened leaders in the region pushing for new directions. This also reveals the critical weakness among the Arab peoples and why they tend to be so radicalized. Improvements in education and more opportunities for jobless youth, and creating a peaceful region -with the US and the EU countries committing to policies that lead to much diminished military sales to Mideast countries and reducing hostilities in the region -would do more to reduce anti-American sentiment in the region and improve US security than any other policy actions. As Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the Muslims of India share the same characteristics as the Arab peoples, and the same cultures, the same is true of this region, actually more so. Education has been even worse neglected in the South Asian Muslim region than among the Arabs. It is the key to peace, does more than troops to ensure the peace. The need is for more schools to be built and run in the region, for essential services like healthcare and development, and financing of job creating industries. ...