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The components in the 6.1% drop in GDP for 1st quarter 2009, from the prior quarter. See the all important graph that shows how things in the breakdown look, and how the economy is behaving, and how it might behave in the future. What is the impact of a10% drop in world trade? For the US which was abig importer, the last 2 quarters saw a shift in consumer buying habits, as economy became the norm, and frugality was in. Imports drop by 6.05%. But exports drop too, with fewer purchases of products the USA makes. THis drop was 4.06%. Consumer spending collapsed in the 4th quarter of 2008. A rebound ocurred in the 1st quarter 2009, as consumer confidence improved as aresult of strong government intervention through the $787 billion stimulus bill, and the new budget that funded priorities in health, education and energy, and supported local governments spending. Consumer spending went up by 1.5%. Residential investment went down by close to the same amount - 1.36%. What was happening in manufacturing capacity utilization. This dropped as inventories were run down, and the change in inventories was a drop of 2.79%. The feeling here is that as inventories were run down there is now the prospect of increasing production and capacity utilization. But unemployment and job losses are not figured into this, and the unknown impact of the new frugaility of the American consumer as it sets in in earnest. If consumer spending remains sluggish, then there is less prospect for increasing capacity utilization. Manufacturing capacity will either be reduced as plants close as in the auto industry, or it will remain unused. And the prospect of exports picking up the slack is remote. This gets one to the crux of the matter which is declining investment in buildings, and equipment. As businesses pull back and lay off employees, a process that will continue for many quarters into 2010 and beyond, with credit tight and demand sluggish at best, the prospect here is of large contribution to negative GDP numbers in the future. For 2009 1st quarter the decline in nonresidential investment was 4.68%, the largest component and the decisive part impacting jobs and production....

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Critics of the Obama administration's so-called "light footprint strategy" for the Middle East say it is more about keeping distance from problems in that region. This is a reaction to the extensive involvement of the U.S. in two wars in that region and intuitively makes sense, as well as being in line with American public opinion to focus on problems at home. The shift or pivot to Asia of president Obama also comes in that context. The problem with this approach is that this ignores the fact that most of the momentum and effort for the freedom struggles throughout the Middle East from Tunisia first, then Libya, Egypt, and now Syria, comes from within. The lead role is now being taken by France and Britain, with German public opinion also lined up in support. The U.S. in forfeiting its role as a facilitator with strategies such as "no-fly-zones" is losing the opportunity to gain the goodwill in the Middle East with cost that is negligible in comparison to the cost of Iraq and Afghanistan, and comes after the huge U.S. effort to remove one dictator in Iraq. A minor followup effort is all that is required from an administration that pushed for the "surge" in Afghanistan. When history is written the investment of the Obama administration in Afghanistan may show little results, if what is considered by the media and experts as an unpopular and undemocratic government of Karzai falls in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal. There is little doubt in public opinion in the U.S. and worldwide that the movement for freedom and democracy in the Middle East and democratically elected governments will become a lasting facet of the new Middle East. It also provides huge opportunties for trade and investment as is shown by the gains made by Turkey in just 2 years. This is why the Obama adminstration policies in the Middle East show a lack of grasp of the facts showing the Middle East as opportunity more than threat for the next decade, especially in its overreaction to the Bush era policies. This happens as there is a demographic explosion of young people in the Middle East. An administration that was keen to sense the demographic changes in North America, has failed to grasp this fact and why the struggle in the Middle East flashes daily on television screens young people carrying on the struggle. A pivot to Asia means a pivot to the Far East more than Asia because India is part of the South Asian-Middle Eastern region, which presents another paradox because as China is slowing the entire South Asian-Middle Eastern region of Asia is where future growth is expected to accelerate in the next decade. ...

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There is a sense of cognitive dissonance in the states of former East Germany, known as the GDR or German Democratic Republic in the Soviet Union period from 1950's to 1990. The 5 states that formed the GDR continued to build close ties with Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in the perception that this would build good long term relations. The crisis in Ukraine with border states of the Soviet Union opting in favor of close ties with the European Union and not Russia have disrupted the economic relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Russia. As long as Russia needed the economic ties to build its economy and standard of living the political issues posed by NATO expansion and EU expansion were set aside by Putin and political parties within Russia. The very ties that were supposed to usher in an era of peace in Europe helped strengthen the Russian and Chinese economies. Leading to a point where these two economies were strong enough by 2021 in the midst of the waning pandemic to  assert themselves on political issues where serious differences existed such as expansion of NATO and Taiwan. When the economic relations such as making China a manufacturing powerhouse  was the path taken by American and European business in 1990's, business interests were focused on the declining quality and high wages demanded by unions and workers in the US and Germany. This could be personally witnessed at Apple's factory in Colorado Springs where quality was failing badly in the 1990's. Apple when Steve Jobs returned in 1997 adopted a China manufacturing strategy when its manufacturing operations in the US failed to deliver the quality and cost structure needed for it to expand. The high margins with low costs of manufacturing in China was the strategy adopted by Steve Jobs to compete with Microsoft and turbocharge its expansion. Soon other companies followed. A similar process happened in economic ties with Russia on a smaller scale. Two decades of such expansion whittled down American manufacturing, hurt American workers, hurt European manufacturing and European workers.  This process could not continue- yellow vest protests in France, the protest vote in US midwestern states in recent elections, the protest votes in German elections and fragmentation of parties, made this clear. The US imposed trade tariffs on Chinese products and moved to restrict flow of technologies to China under the Trump administration, accelerated by the Biden administration. President Xi was once of the view that China's ties with the US were important "thousand fold" in the period as late as 2010. Yet this lopsided trade relationship was not beneficial to American workers or American interests as a technologically advanced leader. It is true that American workers and engineers at Apple had failed to ensure American quality competitiveness in the 1980's into 1990's, yet no advanced country or its business can come up with a false narrative that cedes its manufacturing leadership and jobs for the working class of its country. That false narrative is being challenged today by Mr. Biden, Mr. Scholz, and all American and German political parties, and by Mr. Modi with Atman Nirbhar Bharat for local manufacturing. The integration one sees of the port of Hamburg as Chinese export hub with China's economy is one aspect of what has happened. A new leadership is taking its place in Europe and in America that sees clearly the false narrative. The visit of the new Danish prime minister to India is the beginning of the effort to set up a new logistics relationship with South and South East Asia, as Denmark's Maersk is a world leader in shipping logistics for exports and manufacturing. The planned Noida logistics center outside of New Delhi under Gati Shakti integrated development is part of the change happening today as a new supply chain is being built. The unwinding of the one sided trade relationship with China, and its related relationship on energy with Russia, led to the changing perception in Russia and China of the value of the relationship. Political relations superseded economic and cultural relations during Putin's second phase and Xi's second phase with assertive attitudes on NATO, and on Hong Kong, Taiwan under Xi and Putin 2.0. As could be expected Germany and the US were caught flat footed as leaders who were cast in the mold of Putin as a Soviet representative in Dresden, and Xi with his father leading the Communist struggle in the 1930's and 1940's against Chiangkaishek, acted in ways that reflected the Soviet period. Chiang left for Taiwan in 1948 when Mao-tse-tung setup the People's Republic of China. Taiwan and Hong Kong remained important in the perceptions of Xi 2.0, in the effort to build "China Dream" and erase last vestiges of what in Soviet times were seen as western colonialism. US and EU particularly Business and the new IT telecom Business failed to grasp these matters, and historical events such as the opium wars of the 1850's. Business and cultural interests lacked both the inclination to learn and the knowledge of these events in Chinese history and its relations with colonial powers Britain and Japan, and also Russia. In 1900 the Boxer rebellion against ceding Chinese ports to colonial powers Britain, Japan, Russia, ended with permanent colonial settlements in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tsingtao, other Chinese ports. Chinese rejuvenation in the mind of leaders such as Xi from the second generation of Communist leadership, means putting this behind, leading to the action taken in Hong Kong. In some ways as some observers have commented it is as much a problem of the sluggishness of American and European thinking, particularly business interests including in Taiwan, post British Hong Kong, and ignorance of recent Chinese history which was mistakenly thought not to exist or forgotten. This is as much of a problem as the action taken by Putin and moves by Xi Jinping. The great democracies such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, were ignored as American and European business interests integrated the American and German economies with China's. In terms of population the population of these regions and related parts of South East Asia such as Malaysia and Vietnam which have a shared cultural history is about 1.5 times the population of China. Travelling through the parts of India's largest state Uttar Pradesh, an Madhya Pradesh one finds how much American and European business interests have failed both their own interests, their own workers and failed the great democracies of the world, by not only not investing in the democracies of Asia, and also of Africa and Latin America and bought into a narrative of China which no longer holds true and may never have been true all along. This is starkly evident in a once in a century pandemic in these great democracies of the world. These democracies have been left to fend for themselves during the pandemic and their leaders facing false narratives in the media such as the BBC and American media outlets even on issues such as vaccination of the largest part of the world's people.           ...

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The economic crisis is global because with a few exceptions like Germany the housing prices have seen a bubble around the world, worse than in the US in places like Ireland and the UK, and similiar to Florida and California in Spain, and also in places like China and India whwere a stock market bubble helped sustain housing price increases. In China and India the crisis comes in the shape of higher inflation, food prices, and huge stock market declines, along with the housing declines, and lower economic growth as China shifts from an export model to domestic consumption letting a third of the low cost factories in Guangdong province close down. Look for serious effects and global economic slowdown from a series of intertwined crisis housing credit and in Asia stock markets.

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The International Energy Agency estimates year end 2011 oil output from Libya at 700,000 barrels a day.

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Brad Stulberg reflects in this article on the idea of groundedness and how it creates internal strength and a sense of fulfillment in life. The pandemic has worsened mental health and created the need to reflect on living a better healthier life. Here he points out that one needs to accept the present, the mess of vulnerabilities he says we find ourselves in, as a natural part of life. To build on a good process that gets us there. This means clarity, simplicity, and concentration so that one does not end up wasting one's energies in different directions. Focus on one or two tasks, what he calls deep focus work, play and connection. Experts say it is not true that there are sudden leaps in performance. Most work is diligently done each step preparing ne for the next step which eventually with patience and persevering on tasks brings results. They only appear to be sudden achievements, but always build on work done before patiently and step by step. This can be seen in the work of recent Nobel prize winners in science who have worked on a new discovery for decades with failures that were overcome, and obstacles that were surmounted with patient work day after day. Stolberg quotes St. Augustine and the Buddha on the importance of close knit groups, companionship and being part of a deep community. When Buddha's disciple Ananda says this is half of the spiritual life, Buddha says in response -  not so, this deep community is the whole spiritual life. Stolberg's new book is "The Practice of Groundedness." Much of this is also seen as important in the Bhagavad Gita and in Christianity- the ideas of simplicity and concentration in life on just one or two tasks, the clarity of mind that comes from this free of tensions.  The Cistercian monasteries all over Europe in the Middle Ages attest to this. One such abbey the restored Abbey of Fontenay in France, embodies this idea. Written about the restored abbey are the words- "The sun brings life to the austere bareness of Cistercian architecture, the way God's light spreads grace through the simplicity loving souls of the monks." ...

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For the Jan. to Nov. 2011 period Japan shows a trade deficit of 2.3 trillion yen. Analysts expect a trade deficit for the full year- the first since 1980 and setting a new trend as long as the yen stays at a high level. The yen is at 77 yen to the dollar in Jan 2012. Japan still maintains a current account surplus because of returns from investments overseas. The Bank of Japan reports that the economy is expected to contract by 0.4% for the current fiscal year.

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A summary with graphs that show India US cooperation in five critical areas from trade and climate change to defense and manufacturing technologies, H-1B visas, in the Times of India. India has a trade surplus with the US and efforts are made to increase Indian exports and import new manufacturing technologies. In the Biden administration India has a serious partner as is evident in the discussion with prime minister Modi during his visit to US.

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The truth is very different from the rhetoric coming from the Obama administration about helping Main Street America and ordinary workers against "fat-cat bankers," says Goldfarb. Under the Obama administration banks have grown larger and gained more influence over administration decisions. No conditions were made part of the agreement that would require banks to lend a portion of the money handed out to the banks to ordinary borrowers. And not much of significance was done to help homeowners under water, which would enable a faster recovery. In this respect the policies slanted in favor of banks of the Obama administration worsened the prospects of an economic recovery. Experts from Reagan advisor Martin Feldstein- who as early as 2008 advocated serious help to homeowners under water to reduce principal and interest- to the FDIC's Sheila Bair and Princeton Prof. Krugman, across the ideological spectrum, perceived this being in the national interest. Feldstein's first op-ed on his plan appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 3/7/2008, followed by ones on 4/15/2008, 10/4/2008, 1/20/2010/ 10/12/2011 in WSJ, and a oped on 10/30/2008 in the Washington Post, repeating the call for siginificant debt reduction to homeowners. Banks had extraordinary influence on successive administrations in the U.S., both Republican and Democratic- the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations- so that policy actions could be distorted from what would otherwise take place. A study by two University of Michigan professors shows that banks did not increase lending after receiving government money. Instead taxpayer money was used to invest in risky securities for profits from short term price movements, resulting in gains of about 10% in investment returns. Ran Duchin, one of the two professors, says helping ordinary borrowers was not the most profitable use of capital for banks. Without the necessary conditions from the Obama administration, the banks depolyed capital in ways that did not help the economy. Similiarly when banks needed to be restructured no preparatory action was taken because of resistance within the administration- a request by President Obama to Treasury Secretary Geithner for preparing a plan for the restructuring of Citigroup was ignored, according to a report by Goldfarb and Wallsten on 9/17/2011 in the Washington Post....

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James Stewart of the NYT looks at the outlook for U.S. and international stock and bond markets in 2016. In 2015 stock and bond markets in the U.S. and international were affected by the huge fall in the price of oil and the sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy. This affected commodity producing countries and the oil industry worldwide including the U.S. The slowdown in China affected stock markets in other countries including Germany.

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The former head of contracts at state owned National Oil Corporation of Libya calls for American rules to be issued by the S.E.C. that require strong transparency standards for western oil companies, and limit the scope for corruption in dealings with the national oil company that ocurred during the Gaddafi regime.

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A group of neurological expeorts in the UK help us with advice. Includes things like avoid hearing and vision loss that lead to not driving or isolating. Social interaction and learning are key so take up a hobby, find new interests , learn a new language, travel, and link this up with other people, new people you can meet. Get plenty of exercise, core building. Nature walks, hiking in the mountains, swimming, outdoor activity. Good sleep begins in the morning so that by the time it is 9.00- 9.30 pm one is ready to go to bed. It helps not to stay up late. Eating healthy, olive oil and Mediterranean diet instead of butter, and eating fruits and vegetables, nuts.  Mindfulness helps. There are four forms of mindfulness. On the leftside Menu for Lyrarc there is under Lyrarc Insights the section Mental Well-Being which gives a translation from the original Pali text of the Buddha describing the Four Forms of Mindfulness in the Sattipana Sutta. This spiritual training, a reading of the Bhagavad Gita or the Bible, nourishes brain health and gives clarity of mind. ...

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"Made in China 2025" has caused consternation and alarm in Washington about China's effort to dominate key industries of the future with state subsidies. This report in WSJ shows the European response to China's effort. A survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China shows 58% of companies have not been able to participate in Made In China initiatives. There is concern that global supply chains are not being utilized in robotics, aerospace, and electric vehicles, three areas under China's program.  62% of companies say they didn't know whether this was leading to increased discrimination against foreign companies.

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The Trump administration sends an official notice to Congress that it intends to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty with Mexico and Canada. The new U.S. Trade Representative Mr. Lighthizer served as Deputy Trade Representative under president Reagan in 1983. He says the focus of the negotiation will to promote economic growth and jobs by making improvements to the treaty. The notice does not mention major modifications of the type that were hinted at by president Trump earlier. The leaders of Canada and Mexico had asked president Trump to renegotiate. Republicans in Congress and business in the U.S. favor improvements instead of the drastic changes. Mr. Lighthizer's approach is stated in his letter that said "NAFTA was negotiated 25 years ago, and while our economy and business has changed considerably in that period, NAFTA has not." New provisions will be needed said Lighthizer for intellectual property rights, state owned enterprises, labor and environmental areas, with effective enforcement.  Because of the rhetoric and language used in the election campaign, it is important to note that Lighthizer has in the past negotiated favorable terms for the U.S. steel industry to prevent dumping from overseas. His style is the opposite of the president. He has stated- "I am friendly when negotiating. I am not theatrical. The art of persuasion is knowing where the leverage is." ...

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Cultural issues for management ranks at Hyundai and Kia Motors and the revolving door for American managers at these Korean companies. There is a cultural gap between American managers and the Korean management because Hyunda and Kia are run in a very regimented militaristic way which may be acceptable in Korea but which makes some American manager uncomfortable, especially the presence of coordinators from Korea who act in a supervisory role with the Americans. Some experts say this has worked for the 2 companies. However they have not been able to penetrate the US market as well as they would like to.

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The decline in the U.S. television advertising market accelerates in 2015. Viacom Inc. (Nickeodeon and MTV) sees a decline in TV domestic advertising revenue of 9% for the 2nd quarter of 2015, as its TV ratings decline. CBS Corp and Disney (ESPN) see a 3% decline. 21st century Fox with FOX network and shows such as "American Idol" and "The Following," sees a large decline in its television ad revenue of 14%. In the week of August 4-6, 2015, the share prices of these media companies were hit hard. Viacom shares declined by 21%, Fox 13%, Disney 11%. Earlier gains for digital ad revenue were from print, now the gains are at the expense of television budgets. Companies such as Allstate, Mondelez, Wendy's, MasterCard, Honda, P&G, are shifting to digital from television to follow millenials. Experts at ad buying firms say advertisers are tracking young consumers and following them to digital platforms. Viacom's Nickelodeon and MTV are hit particularly hard by the growing shift to kids shows on Netflix and to You Tube, and Amazon Prime Instant Video. Linear TV and interruptions for advertising is also accelerating the move, when other ad free or less advertising options are now easily available. By 2018 the digital ad spending will overtake television ad spending, digital getting $83 billion and television dropping to $78.6 billion....

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Krauthammer says President Obama has failed to come out openly in support of the Bowles-Simpson commission's recommendations on deficit reduction. The recommendations were made in December 2011. The President's February 2011 budget did not take up these recommendations. He gets a sense that there is too much electioneering in the Obama posture on deficit reduction- being in the best position for the 2012 presidential election rather than a sincere effort. He suggests the Republicans pursue a short term debt ceiling hike of $500 billion containing $500 billion in budget cuts by passing this in the House. And couple this with a call to follow the Simpson-Bowles recommendations which, in one option, cut $1.1 trillion of deductions, credits and loopholes while lowering tax rates across the board to a top rate of 23%. This would give enough time to come up with a thoughtful and open effort with public scrutiny, and is preferable to the current closed door negotiations without the deliberations necessary for decisions of such far reaching consequences. Failing this there is the McConnell Plan B. Boles- Simpson focussed on tax expenditures as a key part of their plan. Martin Feldstein and other experts also point to limiting or eliminating "tax expenditures" (the deductions and loopholes that reduce revenues) as a key part of the solution to the U.S. deficit problem....

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Mistakes to avoid in retirement, says Statman, are that after a lifetime of frugal habits to save for retirement, when one gets there he or she will spend so much less that they cannot enjoy life fully. He suggests taking a payout of 3%-4% from retirement accounts and dividends combined. Another mistake is to think one has more time to manage retirement accounts, and he warns that this is a bad idea as one cannot beat the market, and it is important not to take risks in retirement. Other mistakes are to ignore how important healthy living is at this point.

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US Trade Representative Lighthizer in the Report on China's Entry into WTO sees this as a mistake in the policy of president Clinton. Clinton has said that was a mistake. David Sacks raised this issue in a podcast with Larry Summers, an economist who was deputy to Robert Rubin and Deputy Treasury Secretary, then Treasury Secretary succeeding Rubin in 1999. Clinton on the advice of Rubin and Summers set up the framework for China to join the World Trade Organization without the safeguards and the setup that would prevent it using state capitalism and subisidies to build its own economy with exports, to ally with American corporations to support the outshoring of almost the entire industrial base of the US. Shocking as it sounds this has happened, had happened by 2016, when Donald Trump with the advice of USTR Lighthizer took the first steps to reverse this with Tariff policy, which was supported by president Biden, and continues in its new phase under DJT in 2025. Rubin and Summers had supported deregulation of financial markets and removal of the Glass Steagall Act by 1999. This was to led to the financial crisis of 2009 that was to be one of three body blows to the American working and middle class. The others China entering WTO without safeguards that led to deindustrializing US and loss of its manufacturing base, loss of 5 million jobs, tens of thousands of factories. And the third was the pandemic. “ . . .it seems clear that the United States erred in supporting China’s entry into the WTO on terms that have proven to be ineffective in securing China’s embrace of an open, market-oriented trade regime” 2017 USTR Report to Congress on China’s WTO ...

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Japan's situation, a strong yen and a stagnant economy, continues in 2010.

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Public health experts warn that it is essential that countries reopening their economy have a reproduction ratio of much less than 1.0 so that the rate of increase is under control. Germany's Robert Koch Institute which advises the German government says the reproduction ratio which was 0.70 in mid April is now up to 0.96 after creeping back up. This is based on a mathematical model and extrapolated from infection numbers several weeks back.  It doesn't reflect the change by recent easing of lockdown measures starting with reopening smaller stores. This validates the careful approach adopted by France which was put forward by prime minister Edouard Philippe in his address to the National Assembly. The Assembly approved the plan 368 to 100. More legislation will back up the French government's authority to ban non essential travel between French departments and the creation of a large brigade to perform contract tracing. That involves finding testing and isolating everyone potentially infected, using dedicated locations. Detailed restrictions on travel, work and gatherings will take effect when France reopens partially on May 11.  France is also putting resources behind its testing program to test every person having coronavirus symptoms, and all they are in contact with. That means about 700,000 tests a week. Officials will generate a color coded map from this with red areas facing more restrictions than green areas. Student size is capped at 115 per class. Cafes, restaurants, movie theatres and large museums will remain closed. Gatherings of more than 10 banned. Those who can work from home asked to do so. Public transit users will be required to use masks, and marks on platforms will indicate the social distance required. Only essential travel is allowed more than 62 miles from home. These rules remain till June 2, when new ones will be set. Large music festivals and sporting events are canceled till the fall. Mr. Philippe says "these efforts will not be in vain and should allow us to arrange for a better summer season." ...