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The legenday hitter and catcher of the New York Yankees Yogi Berra (1925-2015) dies in New Jersey at the age of 90. His many popular sayings, including the one " It aint over, till its over," and "When you come to a fork in the road, take it." He was born in St. Louis to a family of immigrants from Northern Italy. In his best year with the Yankees in 1950 he had 124 runs batted in and 116 runs scored. He was MVP in 1951, 1954 and 1955, and was part of the team that was the rival for the Brooklyn Dodgers between 1947 to 1956. As a catcher he played Game 5 of the 1956 World Series, the only no-hitter in World Series history, which was played against Brooklyn Dodgers. He became a loved figure in American life with his wit and sayings, his skills in the game, and his integrity. Between 1963-1974 he served as manager and coach for the Yankees and the New York Mets, and later coached for the Houston Astros in the eighties.

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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Cold weather dampened U.S. economic growth in the 4th quarter, with the initial reading of 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual growth in GDP revised to a reading of 2.4% by the Commerce Department. Projections by economists are for even lower growth of 2% in the 1st quarter from the cold weather, which was the worst in 35 years for some parts of the north and midwestern U.S. Consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 2.6%, and the savings rate dropped by one percentage point from the average of the last 3 years to 4.5%. Government spending and investment declined by 12.8%, as efforts to reduce the deficit continued. Offsetting this, and the bright spot here was more business investment on equipment, software and buldings of 7.3%, and exports up by 9.4%. GDP in the 4th quarter was up 2.5% from the prior year and unemployment rate was 6.6% in Jan 2014. Overall assessment was cautiously optimistic for the U.S. economy at the beginning of the sixth year following the global financial crisis of 2008....

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The reduction in tensions between the U.S. and Iran after the beginning of talks in Istanbul in April 2012. Other factors include differences within Iranian leadership and government leading to more flexible positions and differences within the Israeli leadership. Iranian and Israeli public opinion is moving in the direction of moderate positions.

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France's Baccalaureate exam goes back to the days of Napoleon. Students take 15 exams in their final year in high school. Since 1808 it has not changed much. French president Macron is changing the exam as part of reform of the education system. Changes include making 40% of the score coming from in class testing. The philosophical essay is retained. Students are tested on knowledge that helps them think quickly on their feet.

Teacher pay has not changed much in 15 years and teachers protested recently asking for resources not reforms. One of the problems is that more students pass the exam, 60% compared to 40% thirty years ago, and many flunk out in the first year of college. The value of passing the exam is not as before with fewer job opportunities. Changes are seen as needed because the Bac exam was treated as sacred and little was done to adapt it to the changing times. 

 

 

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Infrastructure development in Indonesia neglected by previous administrations gets a boost under President Jokowi. Since 2014 Jokowi has taken advantage of a fall in oil prices to cap the fuel subsidy given by the government.  This has allowed more money to go into infrastructure projects. In 2014 $15 billion was allocated to infrastructure, increasing by 2017 to $30 billion.  Jokowi has plans for 222 national strategic projects , including roads, railways, bridges, power stations. Of this 127 are under construction, 20 completed. Under president Suharto from 1968 to 1998 for 3 decades infrastructure was neglected. One example is the situation in Jakarta where only 4% of the residents are connected to the sewer system. Most of the investment is being made (80%) by the government. Much remains to be done in this densely populated country with many islands and poor roads. A China supported plan to connect Jakarta with Bandung by high speed rail remains held up for 2 years with difficulties in moving people in Java's densely populated areas. ...

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Each year the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore convenes to bring together Asian prime ministers, defense ministers, experts and journalists to discuss issues relating to Asia such as tensions on the Korean peninsula, terrorism, nuclear proliferation. In previous years the keynote address was given by prime ministers of Japan, Singapore, Australia, Thailand. The 2018 keynote was given by prime minister Narendra Modi of India. U.S. Defense minister James Mattis in his address described the free and open approach of the U.S. in its Indo-Pacific strategy contrasting it with China's policies. In Modi's address the key pieces of the Indian approach were outlined- a free open and inclusive space "from the shores of Africa to the shores of America," that includes the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Modi called Indo-Pacific not a strategy or a exclusive club, but a principle of freedom on the world's oceans based on rules and norms, respect for international law including for overflight and navigation.    ...

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After a period when Democrats let the narrative be shaped by "the entitlements crisis" and questioning the legacy of president Roosevelt- who many including Mr. Trump believe setup the groundwork for the prosperity of the early postwar years in America- the vision of the New Deal and FDR is back, says Glickman in the Washington Post. He says the New Deal order lasted from 1932 to 1980 when president Reagan was elected. Conservatives were skeptical about the New Deal, and Democrats such as Al Gore joined the Conservatives with their faith in limited government and unregulated or less regulated markets. To this was added the faith Democrats such as Mr. Clinton put in a new policy of openness in trade with China that ultimately led to todays $ 1 billion a day deficit with China. There is a new sense says Glickman that the tide is reversing and that FDR is now seen as the new ideal for a fairer and better America, and better investment in the people of America. ...

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AT&T had 4.3 million iPhone activations in the first quarter of 2012, down 43% from the prior quarter. Of the most valuable subscribers who signed up for 2 years AT&T showed 187,000 additions. All but 7000 of these were in tablets. . This indicates that the smartphone market in the U.S. is being saturated. AT&T used the iPhone introduction in 2007 as a way to take subscribers from Verizon and Sprint. That advantage is now fading.

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Karl Rove says he was in his 20's working in the Reagan election campaign in Texas which was declared a close contest by the New York Times polls. Gallup in October showed Carter ahead Oct 13 by 4 points, and by Oct 27 by 8 points. He expresses skepticism about current polls because of 91 national polls in the last 30 days (including Gallup and Rasmussen) Obama was at or above what he calls the critical or magic number of 50% in only 20 polls.

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The top 1% of billers get 17.5% of the payments from the U.S. Medicare program for 2012, according to the Medicare agency's reports. The Medicare agency released data with details of payments to 950,000 doctors, medical providers, certain health care companies, the second year this information is being released. This covers $90 billion of payments. Astonishing as it may sound the transparency comes late, after large increases in medical costs and the increasing U.S. deficit. It happened only after the long and persistent effort by the Wall Street Journal to overturn a 1979 ruling that required such records to be kept secret. By intervening in that suit in 2011, the WSJ's parent company Dow Jones was able to convince a judge about the need for transparency, leading to reversal of the injunction in May 2013. The WSJ and the media has used this information to monitor the waste and fraud in the Medicare system, a vital role only the media can perform to protect the public interest.

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The shift of voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in the South such as Georgia and South Carolina, and the Deep South such as Mississippi and Alabama, started in the sixties with the civil rights movement. Reagan tapped into it by making his first post convention trip to Alabama, where George Wallace had already worked up white southern voters on segregation in the way Trump is doing today on immigration. Strom Thurmond was one of the high profile southerners shifting from Dixiecrat Democrat to Republican in South Carolina. After Thurmond in the fifties the Republican formula was to mix cultural issues with economic conservatism, with Nixon, then Reagan, and then Bush. Reagan added religious conservatives to the cause. Now says Emory University Prof. Joseph Crespino, this is changing as the more educated college educated white collar professionals that Goldwater once appealed to shifting in 2016 to the Democratic Party in places like Georgia and South Carolina. This is a result of the rhetoric of Trump resembling that of George Wallace and Thurmond in the Deep South. With demographic changes there is also new infusion of people from the North to the South in major urban areas. The result in 2016 is that the South no longer appears the way it once was. ...

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Reorganizing a large and ineffective sales force at H-P is one of the biggest challenges facing new CEO Mark Hurd, who took the job in 2005. Under CEO Carly Fiorina the situation had deteriorated. The H-P sales force has become a large bureaucracy which takes much longer to get things done, with the added problems of duplication, redundant layers of management, delays getting approvals and so on. Corporate customers had difficulty reaching salespeople, and getting simple tasks done such as price quotes or getting a sample product took way too long for customers. Salespeople spent only 30% of their time in front of customers, with the bulk of their time spent navigating the large H-P bureaucracy to get things done. Out of 17000 salespeople only 10000 sell to customers, 7000 or 40% are in support or administrative positions. Four people from different groups can be found chasing the same customer, and different quotes from different salespeople cause duplication and confusion. H-P corporate salespeople did not specialize in any particular product area. And salespeople used 30 different types of software to track sales because of years of acquisitions, including the acquisition of Compaq. There are 11 layers of managers between the CEO and corporate customers. Hurd's solution was to organize the sales force so that it was responsible for specific products and specific countries, similiar to the situation he had seen at his previous company NCR. Responsibility and authority for decisionmaking were matched and clearly assigned. Each salesperson had a narrower focus and was to be limited to 3 accounts. H-P's 2000 corporate accounts would have just one salesperson to interface with. Sales would only use one type of software from Oracle Corporation. Changing an organization the size of H-P is a slow process. A year after these changes, the VP of Information Technology at Lear Corporation, says he still does not know who has been assigned as the salesperson for Lear. He has not seen much change in H-P sales. Hurd also reduced the number of employees by 10%, or about 14,500 people. After these layoffs the layers of management have been cut from eleven to eight between Hurd and the corporate customer, still too big a set of layers. ...

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The shift to digital from newsprint for newspapers in the U.S. is taking place in gradual steps. Print ad still account for 86% of $24 billion in revenues for the newspapers in 2011, according to the Newspaper Association of America. About 45 million buyers for the 1400 newspapers in the U.S. put their hands on a printed paper edition each day. At the same time print revenues have fallen by half since 2007. So as not to overly disturb the existing customer base for newsprint papers, and wary of the still developing revenue model with lower revenues of the digital newspapers, Advance Publications is making a gradual shift to three days a week from daily papers. In 2009 it moved the An Arbor News to two print editions weekly and in early 2012 it shifted 7 other daily papers in local communities of Michigan to 3 times a week print editions. The pulbback has shifted readers to the paper's websites. Local communties depend on papers in a crisis such as the one that hit Louisiana with Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Circulation for the Times-Picayune in New Orleans has declined by half to 133, 557 daily in March 2012. Yet the digital edition has a distinct advantage because journalists continued to provide reports online when the hurricane knocked out printing presses. The advantage continues with the lighter iPad tablet devices which will make the papers accessible in a convenient hand holdable way. The problem is with the revenue stream which has not been established in a convincing way for digital as yet so that it would support hiring journalists. As it shifts to online reporting on its site Nola.com, Advance publications will shift to 3 print editions per week in New Orleans. And this will mean laying off 50 journalists, and covering a region with 1.3 million people with the remaining 100 journalists. Advance Publications will do the same for its papers in Birmingham and Huntsville in Alabama. For journalists like Caroline Little, a former publisher of the Washingtonpost.com, the scary thing is that fewer and fewer journalists are supported by the online model, and yet the shift to digital is unmistakable. For reaching younger readers not accustomed to holding a print newspaper, it is also the only way forward. ...

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Chinese company investments in Korean companies are not doing well because of widespread feeling among Korean workers in these companies that the Chinese company is only interested in transferring the Korean company technology to China. Also hopes of selling products in the Chinese market have not been realized. Instead the experience is that the Korean company ends up up laying off most of the employees after being hollowed out. In 2003 BOE a Chinese company paid $380 million for Hydis, a Korean maker of displays for cellphones and laptop computers. After the transfer of technology to build a new display panel factory in Beijing, Hydis was left o hollow out and went into bankrupptcy protection in 2006. Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation bought a controlling stake in Ssangyong Motor of South Korea in 2004. Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, one of China's top state owned companies saw this as a push abroad, as China accumulated large dollar reserves from foreign trade, and a chance to acquire foreign technolgy for SUV and luxury car manufacture. Shanghai Automotive has partnerships with GM and VW to use foreign technology to make cars in China. The Korean economy after the financial crisis of 1997 was opening up to foreign investment. In this climate the Korean side was expecting China to open its market to Korean cars from Ssangyong, but this did not happen. Instead Korean workers say the company transferred technology to its Chinese parent, and after 5 years the partnership is falling apart in protests by the workers, layoffs and bitter battles amid declining sales. The Korean workers even have a word for such foreign companies that have come to Korea, during Korea's opening to foreign investors after the 1997 banking crisis, when Korean firms went for fire-sale prices. That word is "meoktwi", a slang term that means "a thief who eats and runs away." This has hurt China's reputation in South Korea, and its reputation as an enlightened investor in other countries. It also is what may be happening with Taiwanese investment in China in this downturn. Companies like Hon Hai, with its Chinese subsidiary Foxconn, are reported by the Economist to be shrinking their Chinese operations in a large industrial city sized campus employing 250,000 workers in the Shenzen area, to 100,000 workers. That factory city made laptops, PC's cellphones for Western companies using foreign technology....

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Axel Weber, former head of the Bundesbank, did economic and monetary research at the University of Siegen, Germany, where he received his doctorate. He joined the economics faculty at the University of Bonn in 1994. This is unlike others in central banking who rose through finance ministries or national central banks. He was made head of the Bundesbank in 2004. He resigned recently after expressing his dissent when the ECB made the decision to buy the government bonds of Greece and other financially troubled eurozone countries. In his view the ECB should stick to its mandate for setting monetary policy and not get involved in fiscal policy. He returned to academia and will teach central banking at the University of Chicago till May 2012. He brings an unconventional approach by his willingness to talk to the media and express his dissent over issues that affect Europe and the global financial system. The same informal style he adopted in teaching and engaging in discussion at the University of Bonn. See the interview in the Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2011....

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The crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 in the global economy saw huge stimulus programs, resposible economic management, and rapid recovery by the end of 2009 in developing countries. China put in place a large stimulus program, and in most developing countries, India, Vietnam, Brazil and other countries efforts were made to strengthen the safety net for the poor and to introduce stimulus for creating jobs. India and Indonesis saw the return of ruling party governments and in Brazil Lula da Silva had favorability ratings above 60%. So contrary to earlier fears in late 2008 their was both asense of political stability and asense of confidence in the developing countries. Capital is flowing into these countries and the IIF says that net private capital inflows to developing countries will double in 2010 to $672 billion. Russia which saw capital outflows of $50 billion in the first 9 months saw $20 billon of capital inflows in the fourth quarter of 2009. Half of the 140 million laborers working in Chinese cities returned home in early 2009, a fifth stayed there and another fifth counld not find work when they returned to the cities. But as the stimulus in China kicked in, and infrastructure development surged, (see link to the rail infrastructure spending) by the middle of 2009 jobless ness among rural migrant workers went down to less than 3%. This shows in the Pew Global Attitudes Project wth more than 40% of respondents in India, China and Indonesia saying that they were satisfied with their lives, in China this was 87%. In France, Japan and Britain the share is below 30%. In America 49% of those in the Pew pollingfelt that America should mind its own business internationally, 30 points higher than in 1964. When asked "Are you better off in free markets?" the respondents share fell in 2009 in Germany by 4 points, in Spain by 10 points. Shares rose in India and China, and stayed flat in Brazil and Turkey, so there is no backlash against free markets in developing countries....

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The impact of the investigations into the Autonomy Inc. acquisition, the Barclay's rate rigging for LIBOR, and the UBS London trading desk's huge bets by a young trader in the twenties, have dented the reputation for integrity of London markets.

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Japan's International Cooperation Agency plans to fill some of the gaps in western participation in accelerating African infrastructure building that have opened up in the last  two decades. Unneeded wars in Iraq and Afghanistan led to lack of attention and focus on much needed development in Africa by the US and Europe. This is changing and the JICA with its long history of participation in African development is also now taking on an important role to give Africa a new opportunity to accelerate economic progress after the pandemic.

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This WSJ report on Elon Musk of Tesla shows him neglecting a healthy lifestyle and not paying enough attention to needed sleep and nutrition. Since taking over Twitter the 51 year old Musk is working even longer hours from 80 hours to 120 hours a week, says this WSJ report. This type of hectic lifestyle is not productive in the quality of work and comes with a personal cost to health. Musk's acquisition of Twitter acts as a serious distraction from running electric car maker Tesla.

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The Willow oil project in Alaska by Conoco-Phillips which has leasing rights was allowed to go ahead by president Biden with some environmental protections. The leasing rights would have given Coonco-Phillips the right to challenge the government in court with potential damages awarded of about $5 billion, says this report in NYT. It also comes as Biden is faced with the issue of oil prices and supplies, and the impact on inflation with the cost of living crisis, as well as the impact of climate change.

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At a time when family physicians in Britain are experiencing burnout a plan for patients to use text messages to rate family physicians by the new Health Secretary Sajid Javid arouses intense criticism. A former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and the British AMA say the Boris Johnson government's effort to increase in person appointnments by offering incentives of 250 million pounds was a bad idea. They say efforts should be made to attract 6000 more general practitioners rather than demoralize family physicians who are already burned out.

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The first trips by the Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin show the Biden administration's priorities. Efforts to strengthen ties with Japan and South Korea giving the Indo-Pacific region top priority with the emergence of China as a challenge to US interests. Next stop is India. Even before the trips to Korea and Japan, a virtual summit was setup between the Quad countries, the democracies of Australia, US, Japan and India that are committed to an open and free Indo-Pacific region.

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The pandemic came to young German people at a time when the trend was for less opportunity, more inequality. These trends are now aggravated and the loss of opportunities, and the loss of hope is even worse now in 2021. Job searches are being conducted while experiencing intense social isolation, boredom and lack of physical acitivity. The job competition is described here as horrendously competitive, a few roles and so many job seekers jostling to get them as companies have been hammered during the pandemic.