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Are there costs or are there savings from the Obama health care bill? Does it affect jobs and how? The Congressional Budget Office says the health care law will save $230 billion in ten years based on a whole set of calculations and assumptions. Commonsense and basic math leads others to question how spending $930 billion on insuring 32 million Americans could end up with significant savings. The different view argues that the Budget Office erred in making some calculations, by counting $70 billion in premiums from long term care because they would be used to pay benefits later, omitted $115 billion in spending to adminster the law, and omitted $208 billion needed to prevent scheduled reductions in Medicare payments to doctors. The money needed on the Stimulus, on two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the uncertain prospects of the US economy in the longer term till debt and other issues are resolved, injects the critical element of difficult choices and priorities. If state and local budgets are severely strained in 2011-2012 would that require federal help and will there be other needs that will have to be met by the federal government that are critical such as another unexpected downturn, or a resolution of unresolved bad debt at the large US banks There is also a sense that the health care law does not do enough to reduce the cost of health care that will be needed over the next decade so that other priorities are not neglected. Both parties are not up to the task in this respect for running the country's finances withot using the numbers to tell different stories....

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Honda plans to build a new plant in the midwest, with an investment of $400 million. The new plant is likely to make Civic compact cars and the new Fit subcompact. The Fit will be a new hybrid deisgned to compete against Toyota's Prius. Honda opened its minivan plant in Lincoln, Alabama in 2001, and prior to that a new assembly plant opened in 1989. Honda sales grew 5% in the last year. The new plant would bring 13% growth by 2008.

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In this insightful essay Peggy Noonan, former spokesperson for president Reagan, says that Republicans like Speaker Ryan with the Republican Health Care bill are making the same error made by president Obama.. Noonan says she had suggested a different way for president Obama to show compassion for the uninsured- first wait till the 2008 financial crisis was tackled, tackled waste and fraud in Medicare first, then look at the option of expanding Medicare to help the uninsured, and not the approach taken of swiftly focussing on the Affordable Care Act early in the first term disregarding Republican objections. She says Republicans are making the same mistake now by ignoring the impact the bill would have on Trump's base of working class Americans who may be affected by the bill's provisions not taking into account incomes in offering incentives or subsidies. Noonan says Trump did get one thing right in calling it a "carnage" for the worsening opioid epidemic in America which has hit rural areas and parts of the midwest hard. Noonan says Eberstadt has correctly documented the collapse in working class Americans wages and standard of living, and Caldwell the opioid epidemic at another level to their health. She also supports journalist Carlson who questioned Speaker Paul Ryan's judgement about eliminating the tax on wealthy investors in new legislation in a Fox News interview, as she says responding to the sense of America at the moment means listening to the sense of being left out of ordinary Americans, who have done not as well as the wealthy who have benefitted from a surging stock market.  ...

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Fiat plans to expand manufacturing in Italy by making the Panda small car in Italy instead of using a plant in Poland. This would expand production by Fiat in Italy from 650,000 to 900,000 cars, with an investment of 8 billion euros in 2 years. One of 5 unions gets 40% of the vote at the Fiat plant in southern Italy that will make the Panda. Fiat had asked for new working conditions at the plant in exchange for its investment and a new social pact with the unions.

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The addiction to credit cards in the USA for a generation that has never seen tough times is siilar to the addiction to credit in the UK. See the link to this. 11.8 million credit card accounts are delinquent and forclosure filings were above 2 million last year 2007.

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The market shares of Hyundai, Kia, and VW have received a boost as the Detroit carmakers struggle. Kia and Hyundai have moved their market share from 5 in 2008 to 7.3% today, up by 2.3%. Hyundai had difficulty getting brand name recognition for quality and performance in prior years, but it has persevered. KIa and yundai spend more on incentives, $3200 in 2009 compared to $2000 in 2008 to attract first time buyers. To take into account the economc conditions Hyundai was the first to come up with the Hyundai Assurance Plan, which allows buywers who finance their purchase to return the cars if they lose their jobs. Once these buyers try the Korea cars the ope is that they will see that the quality is on par with the Americans and the Japannese for a lower price, or even exceeds them. The Korean carmakers have worked hard on improving quality. In 2009 Hyundai won the North American Car of the Year award at the Detroit Auto Show for the Genesis luxury car. VW is also gaining market share this year. VW's market share is up to 2% from 1.5% in 2008. Aggressive marketing of the Jetta has moved its sales by 8.3% in May. Some of this market share is coming from Japanese carmakers....

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WSJ covers how trade US China trade tensions affect supplies of rare earths, chips and pharmaceutical ingredients to US and Europe from China.

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Cygnus is the rehearsal for a full blown pandemic that the British government conducted in 2016. After preparations accelerated following the SARS crisis in 2009 and the H1N1 pandemic in 2015, the British government accelerated its preparations for H2N2 the next pandemic. The exercize took place in October 2016 for 3 days, for a worst case scenario flu pandemic affecting 50% of the population and causing 400,000 extra deaths. For 3 days people were told to imagine being in the 7th week of the pandemic, facing peaks in demand for health and hospital care. Cobra meetings were to be held. This report in the Guardian gives details on the Cygnus exercize. It showed a lack of UK readiness.  By July 2016 prime minister Cameron was replaced by Theresa May in the Conservative Party and a full blown crisis emerged for Brexit. Britain lost interest in Cygnus or the pandemic prevention effort as Brexit consumed Britain's energies. Soon it was forgotten by the time Boris Johnson became prime minister and won the Brexit election. This shows how even a sincere effort and preparation over years of planning can result in nothing. This also happened in France. See France 24's coverage of this and our groups and links on this. One insight was that while every agency acted there was no coordinated response with someone in the central authority guiding the entire effort step by step. Care homes entirely privately run were also identified as a concern and anticipated significant pressures because of staff absenteeism at these social care centres in a pandemic, as reported in the Guardian ...

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Where do you place a winner of the Democratic primary in Maine, Graham Plattner, an oyster farmer who dropped out of college at George Washington University, served briefly in the Middle East wars of Bush and Obama, and had PTSD. Is he working class, middle working class or is he from a downwardly mobile professional class considering he has parents who are well educated and father a prominent lawyer in Maine? Plattner easily defeated a 3 term governor of Maine with his average working class demeanor and language. He is for universal health care, (Medicare for All) universal child care, affordable housing, affordable college. Politics in the US has been moving away from the simple divisions before 1950 created by the Industrial Revolution- the workers in factories and the owners of capital allied with the professional middle class. The few owners of capital mostly college educated allied with people from the non college educated workers in factories who are conservative in their values and beliefs and on the other side the college educated professional middle class now downwardly mobile because of the many recessions and high unemployment from frequent financial crises, with college costing $80,000 a year putting them in deep debt. There is today in the WSJ a story of a professional worker who at $194,000 a year salary is not able to payoff $15000 debt which owners of capital have set at 26% interest and is in downward spiral. Some of this comes from large college and other debt. There is says WSJ Analysis $1.25 trillion in credit card debt alone with highest delinquency rates in decades in 2026. Cost of living has only made things worse and some of this happened as Biden poured money into the economy to help people hurt by the pandemic, yet with some short run consequences with demand strong businesses including hotels, restaurants and grocery stores, auto dealers, jacking up their prices by over 20% in 1 year and Biden failing to respond, getting overwhelmed by open borders migrants under Mayorkas and Harris (also hit by a sudden Venezuelan migrant influx). This is the America one has today- a confusing mix. This in reality means Democrats may take issue with Democrats, Republicans take issue with Republicans, and Democrats join with Republicans on issue by issue basis. It might actually be rational than irrational. On cultural issues if the country has gone over its head and moved too fast on some issues that are not for the general public good, people of different backgrounds can come together to get the best path. On economic issues things are never so straightforward, there are unpredictable consequences and the rules of economics are really not so straightforward either.  Providing relief can mean the government shouldering the burden as during the pandemic which it should, yet with caution as businesses can use the excess demand to raise prices and one is back to square one with everybody worse off as happened with Biden. Migrant flows and fears of insecurity in public spaces can lead to a severe public "discomfort that can waylay the best intentions of a Harris or Biden, leading to public "backlash." In fact the title of a recent book is "Whiplash." Current books include Floridan Marco Rubio's "Decade's of Decadence- How our Spoiled Elites Blew America's Inheritance of Liberty, Security and Prosperity." Rubio means it. Its authentic because as Rubio says repeatedly, his parents could make a living in the 1960's working in a factory with decent wages, low cost of living and low cost of college, the arithmetic between salaries and what you needed for decent home in suburbs and sending children to good public schools, then to college, all adding up. The result is that Rubio could go to college and serve in the Florida legislature. Rubio says in 2026, after the elites under Bush and Obama and faulty economic theory shipped all of our factories to China, that the story of his parents and his education would simply be impossible. This is what he told people in India on his first visit last week. His parents were Cuban immigrants, yet he identifies with Spain and with western civilization, a devout Roman Catholic. Rubio is a Republican, and is in large contrast with Alejandro Mayorkas, also from Cuba, and Biden's Head of Homeland Security. This is the mix of people and representatives in Congress,  business people, small business owners, professionals, that we have today in 2026 in the US. Plattner and Rubio, one a Democrat and one a Republican- both have something in common. Plattner also has general disdain for "the corporate interests, the billionaires, the Washington DC elites, and the establishment politicians."  The winds are blowing in the direction of getting things right- remembering that Eisenhower continued the work of the Kennedy and LBJ administrations (Eisenhower built the Interstate Highway System for instance, and LBJ gave America Social Security and Medicare). Before that Franklin Roosevelt a Democrat built on the work of his uncle Republican Theodore Roosevelt (TR gave America the idea of good governance and built the US Navy, FDR fought the Depression and stabilized a faltering economy after mistakes made by Republican Herbert Hoover could have happened even if Hoover was a Democrat. FDR was himself from a wealthy New York family and when he first met fellow New Yorker Frances Perkins before his struggle with polio, a haughty New York gentleman. That was before Frances Perkins as FDR's Labor Secretary joined forces with Roosevelt to give New York a modernized administration governance structure by 1940 that was applied to all 51 states after 1950. It allied labor with capital with fairness for all, and was the first such modern structure of this size the world had ever seen, which was the fundamental strength of the United States of America. It was imitated in Asia, first in the Shanghai region then China, and first in the Ahmedabad region and now India. The US is faced with the challenge of recreating and rebuilding this today, as first China, then India remind America of its roots which they have followed in their own style and culture.  First good governance, then good institutional structures, alligning labor and capital with fairness for all, strong affordable + accessible educational and healthcare systems, and investments of capital and labor for infrastructure + industrial development. ...

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Toyota's new startup Woven Planet was supposed to create a startup to produce the software that run's cars for today, and do this within a company that produces 10 million cars using tested quality control and factory efficiency methods. It has not worked as shown in this report in WSJ. Deadlines for the software were put off till 2027 and Toyota was falling behind. Toyota had planned a separate city near Mount Fuji for the company and separate cultural setting. This has not happened and Toyota is now integrating the software startup into its own operations bringing forward deadlines to 2025.

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Dealerships have taken enthusuastically to the new Penske ownership of Saturn. But its not clear whether the Penske name will help boost sales. Saturn sales were down 58% through May 2009 over a year earlier, down to 35,256 vehicles. Kia sold 4 times as many cars in the USA over the same period. Saturn sales improved in June, with a35% year over year increase in June. But its not clear if this will last and what the effects of the penske name will be over the long term. Autodata estimates that there is a105 day supply of Saturn cars, or 32,647 cars for 350 dealers. By comparison Buick has a74 day backlog. Customer loyalty says J.D. Power is down from 45% in 2007 to 37% today. This compares to retention rates of about 65% for Toyota. And the failure of the Astra to genrate customer interest and its being discontinued will leave Saturn without acompact car in its lineup. Its important for Saturn to have an affordable small car to hang onto loyal customers.

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Inflation is likely to drop further in the months ahead. Rent increases have dropped, so have airline fares and prices of used cars. Food prices are also moderating.

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As car sales drop and Chrysler drops some models from its production line, it is running many plants on one shift, leaving the factories idle the rest of the time. This means higher costs per car, as the fixed costs do't change by that much with lower production. Chrysler may also have steeper sales decline than the other carmakers, because it has fewer small cars in its lineup. All this means losses that won't be disclosed as it is privately owned, through 2009, as the economy goes through what looks like a prolonged recession of at least a couple of years. As losses are not disclosed management does not have to worry about the effect on stock price, but the longer this situation lasts, the harder its going to get for Chrysler, for a long time the weakest player in the American car market compared to the others from the US, Germany and Japan.

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Did you know that SUV's are the second largest source of emissions after Power. We hear a lot about aviation which is much smaller but little about SUV's in the impact on climate change. SUV's make up about 40% of cars in Britain, and higher in the U.S. at 43%, 40% worldwide an astounding sixfold increase from 32 million to 200 million since 2010. People may even be driving an SUV and talking a lot about climate change.

Any savings from electric cars expected to grow from 2 million to 20 million by 2030  will be offset by more SUV's on the road. This is the view of the International Energy Agency in its recent report. Again all the talk about electric cars as a way to address climate change misses what is really happening in automobiles. Even in China the SUV's make up 42% of sales, and in India 30%. It is more profitable to make SUV's and they are harder to electrify adding 25% to energy consumed compared to cars.