LyrArc Article Gist
Matthew Slaughter of the Tuck School, Dartmouth, says that the principle of comparitive advantage should determine what America exports and imports. Under comparitive advantage each country concentrates its energies on the particular goods and services that it does better than other countries. Free trade operates under the idea of comparitive advantage, but in practice it is quite different than its textbook economic counterpart. It is constantly changing as new countries or industries in different countries try to upset the existing pattern. Under a textbook example Airbus should not exist because Boeing was the most efficient manufacturer upto that time, and new entrants in a industry are nurtured for years with support from the governments of their countries. And in some situations the governments may exclude certain companies or industries from support such as Komatsu and construction equipment in postwar Japan, and Infosys and software outsourcing in India, and still survive and grow. Under comparitive advantage Japan should still be importing construction equipment from Caterpillar in the US, and there would be no serious competition in that industry. This would work to the detriment of the principle of competition in free trade which is just as important to free trade as the idea of comparitive advantage, with new entrants in an industry upsetting the old way of doing things and creating price/quality improvements. Slaughter simply pulls back off the shelf the old idea of comparitive advantage without seriously considering its real life aspects. Without dealing with trade distortion from currency manipulation, from the impact on jobs, without considering the continuing critical role of manufacturing in developed economies to provide the standards of living for a large middle class, and creating the kind of society that people of developed countries aspire to. He mentions GE's Immelt and the President's Council on Jobs, but makes no effort to engage Immelt 's statement in his recent op-ed article in the Washington Post, that the concept of transitioning from a export-oriented economic powerhouse to a services led consumption based economy could be done without loss of jobs, prosperity and prestige, was fundamentally wrong. He has only one line for manufacturing's role in America's economy. This line says knowledge intensive industries such as education and software are just as important as manufacturing, but fails to mention that manufacturing has received less attention in recent decades. In so doing he is discounting his own profession of concern for the high rate of joblessness in the U.S., and the need for a new focus on manufacturing in the U.S. to reverse that trend. By saying that imports are not a sign of failure but can raise standards of living, and leaving it at that, Slaughter does not acknowledge that consumer debt that US consumers have taken on in the process certainly affects future prospects for the US economy. And he makes no mention of the need for rebalancing the world economy, which is exactly how free trade should work ideally. Countries that have high imports export more to rebalance the world trading system, as currency valuations are allowed to adjust makig their exports more attractive. By not taking into account the realities of free trade, and the need for practical measures to rebalance without policy induced distortions by state run economies, Slaughter ignores the idea of free trade that works as it should and for all countries. The irony is that Immelt's own committment to jobs and competitiveness has been questioned in online blogs and most recently by an editorial in the Wall Street Journal on January 26, 2011, titled "The Misallocators." That editorial refers to the outsize role of GE Capital in GE's earnings during the past decade, and the lack of credibility of a focus on competitiveness and jobs that this creates for GE. It mentions the loss of 34,000 GE jobs in the US during the last decade. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The private sector ignores health insurance. And state coverage in China is inadequate. More than two thirds of China's 1.3 billion people have no health insurance at all. If you have insurance you still pay up front in cash, if you do not have the cash up front you cannot get a surgery, treatment of any kind or any drugs, even if the insurance will later reimburse you. The Chinese health care system is dysfunctional and in a crisis because of the way it is structured, and the faulty policy incentives. It caps prices for basic drugs and procedures at below market rates, yet it lets hospitals profit from everything else from advanced drugs to sophisticated diagnostic tests. So hospitals invest heavily in technology and expensive testing. and drug sales account for 45% of revenues. And enforcement is lax. Doctors in Shanghai make monthly incomes of about $400, about what a taxi driver makes, so they supplement their income with bonuses earned by prescribing more expensive tests and drugs. There is no utilization review so the state reimburses for whatever the hospitals charge regardless of whether the test was needed or not. So the system is dysfunctional and lurching towards a crisis. In fact heavily burdening the middle class. The private outlays and burden of total health care spending has increased from 20% to 60% of total health care spending from 1978 to 2003, as the the health care system got the same dose of unfetterred capitalism as the rest of the system. The Government's share of total health care spending has dropped sharply. In addition there are design flaws that push expensive care and build in incentives for expensive care at the expense of good medical care. The government recognizes this problem and sees it as athreat to social stability. It has committed to increase spending on healthcare. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The battle in Congress over the Puerto Rico bankruptcy bill. Hedge funds are financing the campaigns of many candidates including Marco Rubio, leading to stalled efforts on the bill. Speaker Ryan has put the issue off till March 2016 by sending it for further discussion to committee chairmen. Senator Orrin Hatch and other Republicans oppose the bill.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the Economist magazine says views in the Trump base of support in rural areas and among white working class voters are likely to persist for some time. One reason given is that many of these people live in isolation and little contact with the more educated urban voters in America. Another factor cited here is that only a fifth of voters follow politics closely, and of these voters only a small fraction have a good grasp of the positions of the two major parties. Most people follow the instincts and thinking of the groups they are with. As a result many of the issues covered in the media such as climate change and U.S. withdrawal from the Paris agreement, the Comey firing and the Mueller investigation into Russian meddling in the election, president Trump's Twitter comments, are not having much impact on the president's ratings among his support base at this early stage of the Trump presidency. Yet it is too early to tell only 6 months into the Trump term in office. After 8 years of president Obama's two terms in office voters who feel left out are not likely to change their views in so short a time. Republican voters as distinct from the core Trump base voter are also unlikely to change their views after 8 years of Democratic party administration. By staying close to traditional Republican party positions president Trump is likely to continue to have the support of the lifelong Republican party voters unless things change. Can a centrist position emerge after voter fatigue with excessive partisan opinion, as voters seek to make America a more quieter place and a consensus on working together to lift all boats emerges. This could be expected as time passes.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Dirk Kurbjuweit of Spiegel says Merkel needs to show strong leadership to overcome the challenges with the rise of right wing populists in the U.S., Britain and France. He points to the leadership shown in the latter part of Kohl's term in office to promote German reunification after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The challenges include talking to the German people directly in a convincing way, and meeting the day to day challenges of life for the people with investments in education, health care, infrastructure so that people see real significant improvement. It is even necessary to reorder priorities such as the shift from nuclear energy so that this challenge is met. It is not enough to hope that more Christian Democrats turn out to vote than Social Democrats, that the fifth of Germans who feel the economy is not working for them and feel threatened by immigration see real changes being made to address their concerns.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bernie Sanders points out in this NYT op-ed the idea that Donald Trump could benefit from the same discontent among working class voters that helped the Leave campaign is a wake up call for the Democratic Party. He calls for global trade and a global economy that works for working class, middle class Americans.  Sanders is pushing for a Democratic Party that embraces the concerns of working class Americans, that understands the impact of factory closings and loss of jobs, of economic uncertainty, of declining incomes and shrinking opportunities.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. government sold its last remaining shares in auto company GM booking a loss of $10.5 billion- a recovery of $39 billion dollars of the $49.5 billon dollars given to GM. The Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., points out that the cost of bailing out GM and Chrysler was about $13.7 billion. The benefits were 1.2 million jobs protected in 2009 during the depths of the financial crisis. It also preserved $39.4 billion in personal and social insurance tax collections in 2009 and 2010. The Treasury Department estimate of the cost is about $15 billon, including money invested in GM's former finance arm Ally Financial Inc. President Obama says the effort helped create 372,000 new jobs in five years. Treasury Secretary Lew summed it up by saying "it helped stabilize the auto industry and prevent another Great Depression." Other intangible but larger benefits in the long run were building up the companies anew with new pay structures the auto companies could support in a globalized economy, bringing in new management and discarding of old mindsets and culture, new relationships with unions and customers, committment to achieving fuel efficiency targets with new technologies in cooperation with the U.S. government guidelines, and renewed confidence of millions of employees in the U.S. auto sector. It is also the one area in which the Obama administration scores a clear win, and in which president Obama took the greatest interest as senator. That the public did not fully appreciate the significance of the step is more a reflecion of public frustration with how the companies were run by the old management, and a continual reminder of the importance of good management for the U.S. industry and economy....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. President Obama's 2013 State of the Union address focussed on the problems facing the U.S. middle class, calling it "our generation's task" to tackle this problem. Economic changes have changed the patterns of economic growth and jobs, growth, income growth, that prevailed from the end of the Second World War to about 1989. But he offered few solutions beyond increasing the minimum wage to $9.00 from $7.25 to reduce poverty.

LyrArc Article Gist
Apple iWatch sales are about 11 million -15 million units in last 4 quarters. The iWatch sales are a small fraction of sales overall. Apple quarterly profit declines by 22.5%, as revenue declines and iPhone sales decline. Half of the quarterly revenue decline comes from China. This has hurt the share price by May 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mark Frazier, a professor at the New School, is the author of the book "Socialist Insecurity: Pensions and Politics of Uneven Development in China." Here he describes the situation in China for the elderly and pensions. There is no Social Security Administration in China like the one in the U.S. Pensions are the responsibility of local authorites. Urban pensions were established in 1951. Pensions for rural areas and farmers came only in 2009. The situation in China for pensions is much like that in the U.S. before FDR's New Deal, being run by a patchwork of local programs- about 2500 county and city governments running pension funds. The problems of pension programs being run for the benefit of well connected groups and making risky investments exists in such local programs. Local governments taking on large levels of debt is a serious problem. The pension program in Shanghai came under scrutiny because of risky investments. A report in Dec 2012 cited by Frazer cites empty accounts at 2.2 trillion yuan or $353 billion. The National Social Security Fund has only $140 billion. Overall pensions account for about 3% of GDP in China compared to 4.9% in the U.S....

LyrArc Article Gist
Dana Milbank of the WP says the views of some Democrats on Trump as a good Republican nominee based on the notion that he has high negative perception with voters is fraught with dangers for U.S. democracy. Milbank points out that this ignores what is good for the country. Having Trump as the nominee of one of the two main parties would create a divisive atmosphere and is not good for the country, says Milbank. In comparing Trump with Cruz, he says Trump is likely to follow his instincts to operate outside the U.S. constitutional system. Cruz as a person believes in the U.S. constitution and would never endorse violence or action against minorities. Cruz has not done enough to come across as a likable person with his persistent focus on conservative or Reagan values to the exclusion of everything else. This is changing in mid-April 2016 following a CNN interview with the Cruz family, a MSNBC town hall answering questions from undecided voters, and NYT coverage of Cruz at a Brooklyn bakery, that shows a different human face that people have never seen about Cruz. Cruz's self-deprecating humor in a NYT article where he talks about voters not liking "a hectoring scold," is part of this needed change that could have happened earlier in the campaign. About Trump Milbank cites Conservative party prime minister Cameron who says Trump would unite all Britons against him if he ever came to Britain....