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A major British and Indian collaboration and scientific achievement of both countries is not given the recognition it should get because of mismanaged communication of the results of clinical trials. Tom Whipple science editor of The Times says do not make the mistake of thinking oh Pfizer vaccine scores a 9 out of 10 and Oxford's a 7 or 8 out of 10. Pfizer vaccine says it 94% effective. But this is only part of the story. It is the first exam paper in a long number of exam papers and the final score will require scoring them all. "Oxford vaccine is complex, and we are happy with the complexity," says Adrian Hill, Oxford researcher and head of the Jenner Institute. It is not highly unusual in this complex field for a half first dose to work better than a full first dose in a two dose vaccine treatment. This happened with the Oxford vaccine. As a result the study results were harder to communicate. This happened by accident. Much of medical research and much of medicine's biggest breakthroughs in the last 200 years happened by accident, as one researcher looked for something and accidentally discovered something else profoundly useful. Whipple's points are turning out to be true now that Britain's medicine regulator has asked that Pfizer vaccine not be given to people with history of allergic reactions after 2 NHS workers had strong allergic reactions. A lot of questions remain for all vaccines. How long will the protection last? WIll it prevent transmission of coronavirus? Are there any other complications? Which vaccines can work without ultralow refrigeration storage? Ahead lie the prospect of billions of doses. Two are in final stages in India including Bharat Biotech request for emergency authorization. Johnson & Johnson has a competing one to Pfizer's in the U.S. As many as 30 are being developed in India and 100 around the world. Countries like South Korea say they will wait to find out which one works best and where cost overall combined with benefit is attractive. Some of the vaccines are coming out only weeks apart. The early ones could stumble, if something was missed. ...

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The 2015 budget for the European Union borders agency Frontex was increased by 17.5% from 97 million euros to 114 million euros, yet it remains underfunded with the huge influx of refugees through Greece and from Turkey. For 2016 the budget increases by 54% to 176 million euros. It is based in Warsaw, Poland. It does not have its own border guards, planes and ships, which are provided to it by the member states of the EU and paid for from its budget. It was not deisigned to address a problem of this magnitude at EU borders and some new form of the agency needs to be developed.

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Estimates vary on how much capital Spain's banks will need to recapitalize and push their tier one ratio to 8%. Moody's says they will need 17 billion euros to push their tier one ratio to 8% and UBS says they will need 120 billion euros to regain confidence in financial markets. The banks will have to redeem 90 billion euros of debt in 2011, 45% of this by the two largest banks, according to Barclays Capital. The problem lies in large debt in declining housing markets. Spain's banks have 323 billion euros or 31% of GDP in loans in the housing and property markets.

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Microsoft embraces open-source software for the first time. CEO Steve Ballmer once considered Linux open-source software "a cancer." Microsoft announces the creation of Microsoft Open Technologies in April 2012, as a unit that will manage the introduction of open source software programs and the compatibility of Microsoft software with open-source software. Cloud computing has strong elements of open-source software in it and Web services provided by Google and Facebook rely on Linus's open-source software. Younger programmers are trained with working on Linux and it is important for Microsoft to accept and work with the open-source software community to retain its influence in the field.

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Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. announces a test flight of the Mitsubishi Regional Jet for the second quarter of 2015. The plane seats 76-88 passengers and is designed for short haul flights. Deliveries would begin in 2017. This is Japan's effort to develop its aircraft industry. Mitsubishi has 375 orders. Bombardier of Canada and Embraer of Brazil dominate this segment of the market in a duopoly. Embraer is expected to retain its 61% of the market and Mitsubishi is likely to take 22% on the market for No. 2, with 4000 deliveries in the period 2017-2033, according to analysts. Shareholders in the company include Japan Development Bank and Toyota Motor.

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Mexico is likely to move ahead with long term deep water oil exploration tenders in 2015, and delay tenders for shale and other oil fields. President Nieto's popularity has dropped to 40%, an all time low, reducing political capital. Other problems are staffing the agency that will put together the bid round, which will take time. The initial bids for 109 exploratory blocks and 60 production fields were earlier planned for 2015. Shallow water fields are likely to go first. Oil companies are expected to be choosier in making investments at the current oil price, yet retain interest in long term deep water oil exploration.

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Lenovo's acquisition of Motorola Mobility from Google for $2.91 billion in January 2014. Google paid $12.5 billion for Motorola Mobility in 2011. The Moto X model has not sold well in competition with Apple and Samsung smartphones. Google will retain 15,000 of 17,000 patents acquired as part of the Motorola acquisition, patents worth billions of dollars and helping it defend its Android mobile operating system. Google sold Motorola Home which made setup boxes to Arris in 2012 for $2.35 billion. Motorola Mobility had $2.9 billion in cash at the time of the acquisition. In addition Google is retaining a research group led by Regina Dugan working on new technologies.

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MacKinnon argues that (while correcting the trade imbalance by American consumers increasing savings over time and becoming frugal), the stable exchange rate for the yuan and the dollar helps global economic growth by making it possible for China to engage in fiscal stimulus beyond the half trillion dollars it plans for 2009. From the Chinese point of view anchoring the yuan to the dollar at a stable exchange rate help China's internal price level. After the inflation rate exploded to 20% in 1993-95, the fixed rate anchor helped China regain price stability. The China stimulus in his words is most effective with a stable exchange rate.

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With phrases like "the upside of an Obama Presidency remains greater than that of any other candidate", "more than any other candidate he has articulated an idea of a nobler America", "it has a lot to do with what he says and how he comports himself", despite considerable provocation he has never wavered from the idea of bipartisanship or the idea of America once again engaging with the world", the Economist supports Obama and says he has cleared all the hurdles for the Democratic nomination. It now wants to see more detail about how he would carry out his plans to bring his vision into reality.

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Ashraf Khalil describes the history of relations between the Muslim Brotherhood leadership and the leaders of secular parties with prescient remarks on how this creates problems in Egypt's transition to democratic government. The mistake made by the Muslim Brotherhood leaders, says Khalil, is to insist on a quick move to elections in November 2011, with the Brotherhood hoping to gain advantage in seats with its organization already in place compared to the secular parties which need more time to stage an organized effort. If this results in a lopsided result with the Muslim Brotherhood gaining more seats than its real strength, and the secular parties feeling left out in a revolution to set up democratic government that they led, Egypt's transition to democracy will remain flawed. This is now the stuation as the military which sets the rules and the Muslim Brotherhood have agreed on immediate elections. The Muslim Brotherhood's leaders have spent years being suppressed by the Mubarak regime, and lack the experience needed for such a difficult transition as Egypt faces, even with the best of intentions. Compressing the transition into a short time frame makes it even more difficult. Errors of judgement by Muslim Brotherhood leaders in not developing a consensus, and the uncertain role of the post-Mubarak military and police, compound the difficulties and risks....

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People and parties of Kashmir on the attack on tourists at Pahalgam, Kashmir on April 22, 2025. The economy of Kashmir after the pandemic was recovering with a surge in tourism, new investment in agriculture, and the region benefitting from investments for Vikshit Bharat 2047.  Most of the Kashmir region remain closed in memory of tourists killed in the attack.  Kashmir region has a long history that has been lost in the coverage since 1947 as the colonial rule ended in the region with intermittent peace and conflict. For 7 centuries there was Hinduism from the Vedic period, Buddhism, followed by 7 centuries of Shiva religion till the 15th century when Islam entered the region for 3 centuries till the Sikhs and Sikhism a religion around deity Ram around 1819 and the British after 1850. The British set up a protectorate in Kashmir under the British Empire ruled by a Sikh king from 1850 to 1948. What this says is that after a unsettled period till 1948 to 2020, the region is likely to return to its history of tolerance for different people from South Asia, with one huge difference, the rapid modernization of the region in the 21st century replacing the feudal poverty and backwardness of a overtaxed and underdeveloped farmers communities. ...

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Comments on X that cause difficulty for DJT chief of staff Susie Wiles to keep a clear narrative and the loss in the Wisconsin SC election are leading to a sense that Elon Musk could be a political liability. DJT focus is on the midterms and keeping the majority in the House, which is also why Elise Stefanik was asked to not accept the job of UN Representative and remain in the US Congress. The immediate focus is on tackling the Tariffs Liberation Day action April 2, 2025 so that followup negotiations with about 50 countries including major ones with Japan, Taiwan, Israel, Britain followed by European Union, South Korea and other nations. This would reassure markets as country after country is developing a new trade relationship that respects US manufacturing goals. China could then be tackled as a special case with America limited to loss of $146 billion in energy and grain sales which would be diverted to Europe's energy needs and farmers could be given a $50-100 billion support package. China would then have to find a way to preserve its $1 trillion surplus without the American market  which would require it to find other markets, and create a domestic market, if it chose not to negotiate and accept American manufacturing goals. ...

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French president Sarkozy, and German chancellor Merkel, announce the decision to seek treaty changes to make fiscal discipline a critical part of the new EU treaties. They issued an ultimatum to other EU countries to decide within a week whether they wanted to be part of a eurozone under this arrangement. In any case France and Germany will move ahead for a tighter union. Merkel stated- "We need structural changes. It is not possible to do this in the framework of the current treaties." Germany secured France's acceptance for having national budgets submitted for review by a supranational European body and automatic sanctions. France secured Germany's acceptance of a way to override this if automatic sanctions are blocked by a strong majority of members voting to this effect. On the issue of bondholders, of private creditors sharing in losses, France and Germany agreed to limit this to Greece. Merkel stated: "Greece is and will remain an exception," to which Sarkozy added, "the message to investors from across the world is that in Europe we pay back our debts."...

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Thomas Hoenig, chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, says the five largest financial institutions in the US are 20% larger today than they were before the 2008 crisis. These five institutions control $8.6 trillion in financial assets or the equivalent of 60% of gross domestic product in the USA. He points out that whether we like it or not, these firms are too big to fail. Though these institutions survived the 2008 crisis with a bailout from the Fed as shown in the Fed's recent revealed documents, Hoenig says, little has changed on Wall Street. Two years after the crisis of 2008, these firms again operate with bonus and compensation schemes that reflect not the recent failures but a sense of success. Hoenig says this is why the American people are angry. An absence of accountability and blatant inequities with which smaller businesses and institutions were treated compared to the large ones, is why they will remain angry. Without this accountability he feels Americans cannot build a national consensus for the sacrifices needed to rebuild the American economy....

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On average about 90,000 jobs were added by the private sector by July 2010. 125,000 jobs have to be created on average each month for the job numbers to keep up with growth in population. And most of these jobs were created in March and April of 2010 when the economy was doing better. The 8 million jobs lost in the recession still remain to be recovered. And employers who have raised funds at low interest rates -companies like IBM paying 1% for $1.5 billion in bonds issued- are holding off on hiring in the current economic uncertainty. Worsening the situation is the cutbacks in state and local governments with layoffs of 48,000 workers. Even the $26 billion aid package passed in Congress for state governments will not help make a serious impact, considering the budget problems facing state governments. An example is Seattle, which has used its rainy day fund to bridge a $40 million gap in its 2010 budget. It faces a $56 million gap in 2011.

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China's exports were able to show year over year growth of 7.6% in the first quarter of 2012, a sharp decline from 20.3% in 2011. As a result IMF estimates of China's long term current account surplus which were about 7% of GDP in the World Economic Outlook in Sept. 2011 may now be lowered to about 5%. This would reduce the strength of arguments that the yen is undervalued. The IMF is now engaged in making estimates for current account balances till 2017. China's current account surplus peaked at 10.1% of GDP in 2007 and the IMF forecasts in 2008 were for this to remain at 10% for the long term. The situation is rapidly changing because the most recent estimates from China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange show the actual current account surplus for 2011 at 2.8% of GDP. Since the 2010 Group of 20 nations summit meeting when China was pressured to reduce its trade surplus and let the yuan appreciate, the yuan has appreciated by 8.3%.

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Serious doubts remain about the effectiveness of value at risk or VAR quant models used by JP Morgan Chase to measure potential losses on a trade on a bad day. A newer model used by Chase in the first quarter showed smaller losses. When the old model was run this trade showed double the losses according to Chase managers. Greenberger, a former CFTC official and a professor at the University of Maryland School of Law, says if the trade become hard to unwind it shows poor risk management. And experts say it is not much of a hedge if it is done in an obscure part of credit markets and hard to unwind without serious losses. Peter Tchir, a former head of index trading at RBS bank, says CEO Dimon must have seen these kinds of hedges as part of his overall strategy, which is why he supported them in April 2012. The problem lies in that the bank size has grown to such proportions that its simply too big to manage, with trades it has to make becoming massive as a consequence.

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ECB president Draghi reiterated the ECB's committment for 2015 to support the eurozone economy to bring inflation to the 2.0% level. For the eurozone annualized inflation declined to 0.4% in Oct. 2014, and growth in GDP declined to 0.6% annualized rate in the 3rd quarter 2014. Financial markets responded favorably to Draghi's comments before the European parliament: "We need to remain alert to possible downside risks to our outlook on inflation, in particular against the backdrop of a weakening growth momentum and continued subdued monetary and credit dynamics." He added: " If necessary to further address risks of too prolonged a period of low inflation, the governing council is unanimous in its committment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate." To skeptics citing the low growth issues, Draghi said the monetary policy of the ECB has been "extraordinarily successful," pointing to the low bond yields for Spain, Italy and France. He emphasized "we need time for this monetary stimulus to go and carve its way through the economy."...

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Bloomberg Associates is a firm created by Mayor Bloomberg to help cities all over the world improve city living from Louisville, Kentucky to Mexico City. The focus is on cities using the expertise and experience gained in running New York City, and replicating some of the success in New York elsewhere. Public health, economic development and environment sustainability remain at the forefront. Other ideas include making more room for pedestrian plazas in busy areas, calorie counts in fast-food chains, curbing smoking, a customer-service hotline for city residents. This includes projects such as turning blighted or neglected neighborhoods into attractive public spaces and making subway friendly residential neighborhoods. In places such as New Orleans the Mayor's staff has already produced changes in the crime rate with innovative programs and financing from Bloomberg Philanthropies. Their will be no fees for sharing this expertise and knowledge. Joining the new firm are most of Mayor Bloomberg's top staff, including Amanda Burden, director of city planning. George Fertitta will run the firm....

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The reorganization underway at NBCUniversal under CEO Steve Burke. Burke is quick to end the practice of different fiefdoms operating at NBCUniversal incuding NBC Sports, and expects all divisions to work together to produce synergy. He uses the example of a Symphony orchestra. Of 20 senior executives at NBCUniversal from the GE days only 5 remain, and the rest of the management structure is streamlined. Dick Ebersol who ran NBC Sports as his own sports empire, including the Olympics, with little oversight is out. About $12 billion has gone into sports because of the potential for advertising. Burke, 55, is from a family with a history in the television business- his dad was CEO of Capital Cities/ABC. He was in corporate strategy at Walt Disney Co. before he joined Comcast in 1998 to develop corporate strategy and acquisitions under Mr. Roberts. The opportunity at NBC gives Comcast a shot at building a business that spans its cable business and a content development company. Operating cash flow for NBCU is up 21% for the second quarter of 2013....

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Its of huge importance that the banks who had a capital injection of $125 billion on Monday October 13, go out and lend some of that capital but this looks increasingly unlikely for the next quarter for some of the banks with gaping holes in their balance sheets and even for a couple of quarters according to some analysts. Merrill's Thain said it was unlikely considering Merrill's losses that it would do so for another quarter and Barclsy's analyst Roge Freeman "its quarters off , if not months off, before you see that capital being put to work." In that case proposals that help homeowners become critically important as more and more howeowners in a downward spiral could find themselves under water which is a point that has not been grasped by the Bush administration. As access is denied to credit markets unemployment rises for small and large businesses and this alone leads to more troubled omeowner loans. nd the auto and credit card debt problems still remain to be worked out creating more downward spiral....

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This editorial in the Economist looks at China's relationship with Russia. It says the Ukraine conflict and western sanctions have resulted in Russia moving closer to China. Yet the two countries have competing interests in central Asia, and different relations with India and Vietnam, in the Asian region. Russia is also wary of China copying designs of Sukhoi aircraft in sales to China of advanced military technology. The major oil and gas deal signed in 2014 provides Russia with a new outlet for oil and gas with the cooling of the relationship with Europe. Yet Russia has strong ties built with Germany over the entire post war period, and differences have emerged in U.S.- German relations. Germany's relationship with Russia- cooled by sanctions and German wariness over Russian intervention in Ukraine and Russian wariness over NATO close to its borders- spans 7 decades and is likely to remain strong in the long term. This comes from the shared sense of awareness of the terrible conflicts of an earlier period, just as it has for French-German relations, and from the strong efforts made by Germany to preserve the relationship and peace in Europe. Chinese president Xi's visit to Moscow on May 9, for celebrations of victory over Nazi Germany, will be followed by a visit May 10 by Chancellor Merkel of Germany. A factor in German-Russian relations is the close trade links, cultural exchanges, and history going back to the GDR where Chancellor Merkel is from, built up over many years, that are likely to set the long term future of relations. China's dominant partner relationship in the China- Russia relations does not bode well for the future of relations, compared to the equal partner relations with its European neighbor, Germany. In this different light Ukraine is a temporary pause, in German-Russian relations and peace in Europe, a situation which is in China's long term interest as it focusses on its economy and the next phase of development for a modernized economy. Especially as China continues to build on its own vital trade relations with Germany and the European Union, the latest example being Germany, other EU nations, and India, joining the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. ...

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The success of a rainwater harvesting system in Mexico City which gets more rain than London, England. The rainwater harvesting system was setup by Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, an environmental scientist. It provides 100,000 rainwater harvesting units in two districts in the city. It fills a 2500 lite collection tank that can be used for bathing, laundry, and washing easing the strain on the water grid. This system is cheaper and more efficient.

Water supply in Mexico City remains mismanaged. Most water gets pumped from dams 125 miles away, with 40% lost through leaks in pipes and containers. 

Today only 2% of water gets harvested when it could be 8-10% if new methods are adopted and governments take on the task. It may not be available in the dry season but in places where rainfall is plentiful it can be a vital resource.

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 WSJ looks at the story of one Indian engineer 39 years from Bangalore, India on a extraordinary category visa. 79000 H1-B engineers and others keep California's population growing in 2024. The state loses population everyyear from domestic migration WSJ charts show, yet it makes up for this through international migration. Also helpful is the fact that California has more births than deaths by about 110,000. California has the largest percentage of its population as foreign born, about 25%. About half of the international migration of 2.7 million since 2010 is Asian, and one third is Latin American. Pew Research shows only about 17% of California's immigrants in 2023 were undocumented. During the pandemic California lost 400,000 people, the population of Oakland. Net immigration dropped to 44,000 a year in the worst year of pandemic, then rebounded to 300,000 in 2024, but remains uncertain with tighter immigration controls under DJT. ...