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Ukraine's general election in March 2019 comes at a time of very low confidence in government. Only 9% have confidence in the government dropping from the 24% at the time of the 2014 protests. The problem is mainly corruption with the Wold Bank pointing out that politically connected firms control about 20% of the revenue and 25% of the assets. The major candidates Ms Tymoshenko a former president, and Mr. Poroshenko current president have about 18% support. A comedian with a television show in its third year called "Servant of the People" has about 25% support, and is leading in the polls. Lack of political experience was not an issue.The hope raised five years ago have not been realized as Ukraine suffers from crony capitalism and corruption. The war in the east has affected Ukraine's economy. Since 2013 average wages have fallen 20% to $320 a month and gas prices have gone up 8 times during a period of the conflict with Russia. The 2014 protests led to the fall of a Russian backed government, Russia taking over Crimea, and the war in the east with separatist rebels. Mr. Poroshenko's government has failed to move quickly to tackle major problems in the economy. ...

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Federal Reserve proposals in Dec 2011 for large U.S. banks leave capital cushions at 5% of assets. This phases in the higher 7% of assets rule for capital reserves and a surcharge of upto 2.5% based on bank risk levels under new Basel III regulations for implementation in 2016.

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Adam Taylor explains what Brexit is about. What should be added is that Brexit is a child of the time in 2015-2016 when Angela Merkel was ill prepared to tackle the sudden wave of migrants from North Africa from wars and population growth outstripping what little progress was made, making decisions to let in close to a million migrants. Migrants are now being returned back to their home countries and the issue has faded. The austerity policies in the EU with Greece, Spain and Portugal as bad poster childs for the EU are also largely over, with economic recovery in Europe.  As a result confidence is growing in the future of the European Union. What pessimists including Mr. Trump saw as a breakup of the European Union is no longer the case. Britain's long negotiations and divisions for Brexit are now reinforcing an opposite conclusion- that it is beneficial to stay in the European Union. Fully 68% in a Eurobarometer Survey of 27 EU countries by the European Commission in March 2019 think so, only 17% think it is not beneficial. In Britain also a majority now support membership in the EU. The European Union and Britain have a lot to learn from this experience and the divisions generated, which is likely to be part of the acquired experience of a new generation of leaders.  ...

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The CEO of the New York Times and the former director general of the BBC, takes a look at the public discourse in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and in the Brexit campaign, and finds some troubling changes. The use of words that can eaily be picked up by Twitter and social media to attack opponents, the complete disregard for facts, and outright attempts to denigrate and destroy using rhetorical tactics, and a section of the public that has turned away from the facts or is disinterested in facts, is deeply troubling for Mark Thompson. When the public discourse fails, then the politics as a whole starts to collapse, says Thompson. We are children of the enlightenment, says Thompson, and were taught to look underneath statements to discern the truth. This is a crisis in public discourse. Worse it is one in which truth telling by people who say they are outsiders and tell it like it is, is not about telling the truth. Which is what makes it so dangerous. Thompson cites the statement by Michael Gove that "people in this country have had enough of experts," as another dangerous sign. He says it is time that experts make themselves understandable and talk in a way the public can understand. The media needs to explain issues in clear ways, and professional policymakers language of discourse needs to be conveyed in better ways that the public can grasp, in which the Brexit Remain campaign failed, says Thompson. Its important to acknowledge the problem, as the health of our democracies depends on finding solutions to what has happened in 2015-2016 to change the public discourse and let it deteriorate to unimaginable levels.  ...

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Shiller's ten year earnings P/E ratios for U.S. stocks are at about 24.5 in October 2013. By comparison Shiller adjusted 10 year P/E ratio for Greece is at 4, Italy and Spain at close to 10 and Germany at 15.6. The one year earnings P/E ratios in Oct 2013 are at 15.8 for U.S. stocks. Within the U.S. Shiller says, the sectors where P/E ratios are much lower than 24 are in healthcare and energy and industrials. Emerging markets are also much lower than 24 for the U.S., says Shiller.

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Russia raises interest rates by 6.5% to 17% on Dec. 15, 2014, as Brent crude prices fall below $60 and pressure on the ruble increases. Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2015 puts pressure on emerging market currencies, adding to pressure on the ruble. All emerging market currencies, the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lira, also come under pressure as money flows out of emerging markets in a repeat of the situation in January 2014.

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Mexico has emerged as the world's fourth largest exporter of cars in 2012 after Japan, Germany, and S. Korea. Mexico is expected to surpass S. Korea in a few years. In 2011 2.68 millon cars and trucks were manufactured in Mexico. Honda, Nissan, VW and other companies are building new plants in Mexico. Exports in 2012 are expected to reach 2.14 million cars. With the increase in wages in China's auto plants Mexican wages are highly competitive with China, considering the proximity to markets in N. America and Latin America. Wages in Mexico are about $40 a day for assembly line workers. By comparison wages in China are about $3 an hour. Honda plans to manufacture its Fit small car in Mexico. VW executives say a VW car made in Europe is imported into Brazil with 35% duty, into the U.S. with a 25% duty on trucks, and this can be avoided by making automobiles in Mexico. The quality and reliability of vehicles made in Mexico compares well with vehicles made in Japan, according to Nissan, and productivity at plants is high. There is also good avialability of engineers and plant workers. The growing automobile production also means new plants of auto suppliers from Japan, Germany and other countries in a snowball effect as new auto plants open creating new demand for components....

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This WSJ analysis shows China giving Huawei a total of $75 billion in subsidies through grants, credit facilities, tax breaks, and other forms of financial assistance. It is this state support that enabled a little known vendor of telecom equipment to become the largest telecom company in the world. This also made it possible for Huawei to offer generous financing terms and undercut pricing of competitors by as much as 30%, according to analysts and customers. The WSJ analysis shows loans and credit lines from state lenders of $46 billion, tax breaks of $25 billion from 2008 to 2018 with state incentives to the tech sector, $1.6 billion in grants, and $2 billion in land discounts.  In the developing countries lacking financing the Chinese state lenders and government financed a project and Huawei built it. In competitive bidding Huawei's bids came with financing from state lenders that made Huawei a much stronger bidder than competitors such as Ericsson of Sweden and Nokia of Finland. With this kind of steady support and its own determined founders Huawei changed from a small vendor when 4G was first introduced into a pioneer and leader in 5G networks in 2019. Lacking this kind of support and without clear focus of the American and European governments American and European companies now lag behind in 5G technology.  This has caused tensions in the U.S. and Germany over loss of technological leadership in key areas. The Trump administration in its trade tariffs and other actions against Huawei is responding to the issues of state subsidies in China, intellectual property of American firms, shift of factories to China, and loss of tech leadership, leading to a loss of American jobs, risks to national security. ...

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Gerson describes Obama's failure to connect in 2012, compared to the 2008 campaign. What is left is more of the politician from the South Side of Chicago, the idealism of an earlier campaign is gone. What is left is a supposed ruthlessness that is opportunistic at every turn, says Gerson.

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The Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow was prescient in predicting problems of declining support for Mr. Putin before the December 2011 parliamentary elections. Work with 32 focus groups by the Center in May 2012 shows a continuing erosion of support for Putin as efforts to open the political system have faded. The discontent focusses on the delivery of basic services such as healthcare, education, law enforcement, infrastructure.

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Mark Hulbert points to the comparison of financial ratios in Dec 1999 when the Nasdaq Composite Index reached 4000, with the situation in November 2013 when the Index again crossed 4000. He cites the changes from P/E ratios for trailing earnings at 30 in 1999 compared to 20 in 2013 for the Nasdaq Index, Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratios at 44 in 1999 compared 24 in 2013, Price/Book ratios at 5.1 in 1999 compared to 2.6 in 2013, and Price to Sales ratios at 2.4 in 1999 compared to 1.6 in 2013. The broad market could still be overvalued says Hulbert, but the Nasdaq index shows tech companies not speculatively driven up in the way they were in 1999.

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A Washington Post Univision poll in Feb. 2016 shows 8 of 10 Hispanic voters with a negative impression of Donald Trump, and 7 of these 10 having a "very unfavorable" impression of him. The poll shows Trump's standing with Hispanic voters deteriorating, with a Univision survey in summer 2015 showing 7 in 10 with a negative view, and 6 in 10 "very unfavorable." This is in line with Trump's increasing anti-immigration rhetoric and calls for a wall at the border paid for by Mexico, upping the anti-immigrant rhetoric in 2016.

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Russia's parliament voted to ratify Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization by a vote of 238 to 208. Opposition was led by the Communist party. The head of the Economic Expert Group in Moscow, Evsey Gurvich, says the new rules are important for Russia as Russia has no rules of the game today, the new rules will enhance competition. President Putin described the change in this way: "We joined the WTO because our economy is highly dependent on the external market in terms of both production and consumption. Excessive protectionism invariably leads to stagnation, low quality and high prices." The result from loss of revenue with lower tariffs is a loss of revenue of $5.7 billion in 2013, and $7.8 billion in 2014, according to Economic Development minister Belousov. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 convinced Putin that Russia had to participate in the decisions about the world economy because of the direct impact this has on Russia.

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VW sales including Audi were up 34% in 2012. BMW sales were up 14%, and Daimler sales were up 15%. The growth rates for the German automakers surpassed growth in China. By manufacturing in the U.S. German automakers are better able to compete with the Detroit and Japanese carmakers in pricing. A third of BMW vehicles and a fourth of VW and Mercedes vehicles are now made in the U.S., according to LMC Automotive. VW has invested about $4 billion in the U.S. since 2008, including investment at a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee. The German carmakers are now going for mass appeal with the VW Passat. Lower priced Mercedes models now sell for under $30,000. German exports to the U.S. increased by 24% in October 2012, compared to 18% for the eurozone overall. About 40% of German exports to the U.S are autos. Eurozone exports to the U.S. were up 18% in Oct 2012, and Britain's exports increased by 11%. British exports in Oct 2012 of 4 billion euros were second only to Germany at 8 billion euros....

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Credit default swaps on the $70 billion in CDS on Greece for different parties were activated in March 2012, resulting in payouts of $3.2 billion. This editorial points out that this happened without causing any tremors. Jean Claude Trichet as president of the ECB insisted in 2010-2011 that a default in Greece would result in systemic risks caused by the swaps and derivatives issued and in the contagion effects. The result was a delay in cuttting Greece's debt to sustainable levels with a private bondholder haircut that would have come much earlier. The delay and the burden of correction falling on austerity measures alone means Greece's economy is in much worse shape and debt still is not sustainable with Greece's rapidly declining economy.

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Mexico's economy grew at 1.34% in the third quarter of 2011, according to the national statistics institute. Annual growth is estimated at 4% for 2011. The war against organized drug trafficking in Mexico cost the economy one percentage point of economic growth, according to estimates by BBVA Bancomer, Mexico's largest bank. Mexico received $20 billion in foreign investment in 2011, about the same as in 2010. Cars and aerospace have drawn large foreign investment. Mazda will invest $500 million on a new plant in central Mexico. Honda says it will spend $800 million on a second Mexican plant. In recent years with higher costs in China, higher transport costs, and a weaker peso with a stronger yuan, Mexico is becoming more competitive with China as a manufacturing investment location. The younger workforce, low inflation and technical education schooling, offer Mexico additional advantages. Mexico is the second largest manufacturer of flat screen television sets, and is now the fourth largest location for outsourced IT such as call centers. Axa CEO, Henri Castries, and Siemens CEO, Louise Goeser, have very favorable views of doing business in Mexico. Siemens sees sales increasing by double digits through 2015, and has located one of three global R&D centers in the state of Queretaro. Goeser says many parts of Mexico are safer than parts of the U.S. A large part of the violence is concentrated in a few states, and in border cities like Juarez, and affects smaller businesses more than the large manufacturing enterprises of overseas companies. As a result it is as if there were several economies in Mexico, with foreign enterprises largely insulated from the violence. ...

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Chrysler showed astrong sales rebound in Sept. 2011 with sales of 127,334 vehicles, a 27% increase from the prior year. Truck sales were up 33% from the prior year and car sales 12%. The Jeep Wrangler, Dodge Grand Caravan, and Ram pickup showed strong sales.

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After forming 2 governments, a majority government in 2015 and a minority government in 2019, Trudeau faces problems with his decision calling a snap election in 2021. This was based on the idea that voters were happy with the vaccination drive. Yet Trudeau's Liberals lead in the polls over the Conservative party has vanished. Voters are asking whether a new election was needed at this time.

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New studies from the University of Chicago and the Chinese University of Hong Kong show China's growth rate measured by real GDP to be overstated by 2 percentage points on average every year from 2008 to 2016. As a result the size of the economy may be overstated by 16% or more than $1.5 trillion. Industrial output and investment it says have been exaggerated.

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The marketing of the iPhone 6 in the U.S., China and global markets helps Apple widen its lead over competitors in 2015. Apple sales were 47.5 million iPhones in the 2nd quarter 2015, increasing by 35% over the prior year quarter. Apple is also gaining sales from buyers switching from Android phones. Apple's iPhone sales now make up 63% of its sales, compared with 53% in the same quarter in 2014. Sales of iPhones increased 59% to $31.37 billion as the average selling price went up by $100 to $662.42. Apple remained above the fray, and actually increased average selling price to $662, as Xiaomi sold quality Android phones at near cost in China hitting Samsung sales and margins hard, and leaving unsold inventory for Samsung in China. Rarely has a company dominated its business in this manner from the standpoint of profits with only about 20% of the market in smartphones. Apple profits in the 2nd quarter were $10.7 billion, increasing from $7.74 billion in the prior year quarter. The iPad unit sales declined by 18% for the 2nd quarter 2015, the sixth quarter of such declines and fewer customers upgrading. The iPad has also not taken off in the workplace. Mac unit sales were up 9%, even though the PC market declined in units by 9.5% globally for the quarter. Apple shares up 39% in 2015, fell by 6.7% over concerns about slowing China sales....

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Colonel Stevenson's efforts to limit features on a new bomber for the U.S. Air Force to replace aging B-52's and B-1's. Contractors added a kitchenette in one design which was turned down by Stevenson and senior officers at the Air Force. Senior officers were mindful of how it might be seen by the public and aware of the need to keep costs down during a period of austerity budgets. Barnes describes the efforts of Colonel Stevenson as he led efforts to limit the new plane to essential features, turning down contractor proposals for a plane that could be converted into a drone, reconaissance and cyberdefense features, and other embellishments that would drive up the price tag per plane. In 2011 budget negotiations defense officials agreed to limit the cost to $550 million per bomber, a third of the cost of the B-2 which cost $1.8 billion per plane. Because new planes take a decade or more to design and build with cost overruns, it is also important not to venture too far into technological unknowns. This adds more time to build and proves costly. The Long-Range Bomber project started in 2011 with Secretary Gates signing off on the requirements for it to give the president the option to move quickly in a matter of hours to penetrate distant airspace. The cost is $600 million spent till Oct 2013 for research, and $8.7 billion budgeted to 2018. The Air Force is sticking to existing engine design, and Stevenson says if the technology has not been tested the Air Force is not interested in experimenting with it. In the process Stevenson finds himself trying to change the culture at the Air Force, where putting cost as the top priority is a new concept....

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Analysts point out that there is not much room for austerity cuts in Italy and Spain without cutting into muscle. This is because these countries have moved to make austerity cuts much earlier. Their budget deficits are actually less than what they were when they joined the euro currency zone. In the case of Italy the budget is actually in surplus, to the amount of 2% of GDP, when the financial position excludes interest on debt. And Italy has now moved to reduce the deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2011. Under pressure from the ECB Italy has announced its aim of balancing the budget by 2013. Because both Italy and Spain have growth rates estimated at below 1% for 2011, analysts believe it is important to emphasize growth.

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Boudreaux and Bjork of the WSJ interview Mariano Rajoy, prime minister of Spain, in September 2013. Rajoy says he used to look at an app on the iPad hourly for changes in Spain's borrowing rates at the height of the banking crisis and found it a bit stressful. He hopes the current improvements in the economy will not stall the progress towards a closer union and setting up the financial architecture for the euro which puts the financial strength of the EU countries behind EU banks. Rajoy would like to see a banking union. He sees Spain's banking system not needing a bailout in 2014 and the changes having improved transparency, and capitalization of Spain's banking system. Other signs of improvement are increase in exports, a historic high in tourism revenues as a record is being set for the number of tourists visiting Spain in 2014, lower labor costs, and a current account deficit that reached 10% of GDP now in surplus.The 3rd quarter of 2013 brought an increase of 0.1% to 0.2% increase in GDP. If maintained this represents an annualized growth of 0.4% to 0.8% in GDP. GDP has declined 7.5% in the last 3 years. Rajoy expects GDP to go up 0.5% to 1% in 2014 and jobs being created but the progress only gradual. The government will consider further improvements for a flexible labor market. Increases in pension payments will not automatically be indexed to inflation for Spain's 9 million pensioners in 2014 as part of expected changes. Electricity rates will also not be indexed to inflation. Rajoy's main worry now is that there is a shortage of credit to increase household spending and the dire need for job creation....

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With the arrival of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State, and John Bolton as National Security Adviser, president Trump finds support for his own instincts on foreign policy. On North Korea, Iran, and China, president Trump takes charge of foreign policy favoring strong bargaining pressure to achieve foreign policy  goals in trade, containing nuclear weapons and reducing conflicts. He sees the peace talks with North Korea as moving in the right direction with his efforts, and makes the decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 on May 8, 2018, as he leaves the door open for new negotiations with Iran for a better deal that achieves U.S. goals.