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China shifts its policy to allow 3 children per family after it sees the percentage of people in the population over 60 rising. This WSJ report show that the policy shift is being followed by changes in policies related to education with more equitable educational resources and reduced expenditures for education for families. Policies that were seen as making families hesitant to have more children.  Changes of the Mao era policy of one child, one family, are very recent. Not till 2013 has this policy changed, since its implementation after the Communist Party took over mainland China in 1949. In 2013 the government allowed families to have 2 children if one of the parents was an only child, and two years later in 2015 the policy was changed to allow 2 children per family. Only half of Chinese couples are willing to have 2 children, according to a study by the state backed All China Women's Federation. A once in a decade census shows 12 million babies born in China in 2020. In 2016 there were 17.9 million births. China's leaders noticed a change in the census for people over 60 as a percentage of the population, which was growing much faster than imagined from 13.3% in 2010 to 18.7% in 2020.  The perception of experts and Chinese couples in their thirties shows that the policy is seen as not enough to convince young couples to have another child. Typical is the situation of one parent cited in this report, a Beijing father of two. He says the policy has changed but it does not mean that he would have another child. He says it takes a lot of money and energy to take care of another child. It also affects the standard of living and education of the two children as he has already moved to a new 2 bedroom apartment to be near top schools in the Chinese capital. Another facet of this development is women in China postponing children to pursue their careers. Government policy is now to raise the retirement age with fewer people of working age to support the senior population. The percentage of the population of working age 15 to 59 years dropped from 70% in 2010 to 63% in 2020. Fewer people for working at Chinese factories and manufacturing. China's retirement age is now 60 for men and 50 for women, giving the government room to do this by bringing it up to western levels that are much higher in the US and Europe.   ...

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This is a WSJ special report on Nissan and the failure of Carlos Ghosn's management style at Nissan leading to deep discontent in management ranks and employees, and also in Japan. Ghosn failed to invest in Japan seeing it as an aging society, and preferred the U.S. for investment. This was an affront to many Japanese, not just Nissan employees.  A big problem was that Ghosn's salary was larger than that of all nine top Nissan executives combined. Even during the 2008 financial crisis and cost cutting Ghosn's salary was understated by using accounting methods not approved by its auditor Ernst & Young. Under new Japanese rules oversight on compensation was given to Mr. Imazu who had to uncover the different shell companies that were used to shield the compensation and benefits going to Ghosn from public view. Lack of transparency and frugality was a major issue as one Nissan executive put it- "where is the transparency, and where is the frugality." New laws introduced in Japan in 2015 required release of compensation for any company executive making more than $800,000. Under these rules Japanese prosecutors were able to investigate the situation at Nissan.  In the end when the CEO of Nissan, appointed by Mr. Ghosn announced the arrest and detention of Mr. Ghosn, the Japanese audience applauded, showing how deep the discontent was in Japan. On November 19, in a carefully managed operation that would make a detective type story Japanese prosecutors arrested Mr. Ghosn as his plane landed in Tokyo, and arrested his assistant Mr. Kelly on the same day after his plane landed and his car was taken off the road to a rest area. Ghosn story has also its management lessons as this type of hard driving management with time spent jet-setting more than in contact with people and employees of the company is becoming unpopular. It is bad for employees and presents a rather unhealthy lifestyle, lacking any kind of role model for the rest of the company and society where the company is located. In this case not just Yokohama, but all of Japan, which resented the way it was treated. Recent articles have highlighted the situation at other companies. The General Electric story about the failure at GE in the U.S. - also explored this week in the WSJ -tells a story of hard driving management style of some executives that is increasingly becoming unpopular. A more thoughtful management style, with mindfulness, not based on personality or ego, is more productive leading to better decisions after taking in all views and enabling participation of other top and middle managers. ...

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Extraordinary pictures taken by a photographer from Edinburgh who left Britain for Singapore and Far East in 1862 at the age of 25 years. He had worked as an apprentice with an optical manufacturer and learned photography. What is astounding is that this was the time when Japan was opening up to the ideas and technology from Europe with the Meiji restoration around 1871, China in transition under the Manchu dynasty which was to collapse in 1912 ending the monarchy. A major rebellion happened with the Taiping rebellion in southern China in 1854 that lasted till 1862. The Taiping rebellion was against the Manchu dynasty as a foreign dynasty imposed on Han people in China, and the result of famines, difficult conditions for peasants, opium addiction, poor economic prospects for a large population. Mao considered the Taiping rebellion as an unfinished revolution which the Communists continued this time against other foreign rulers the Japanese and European colonies in China,  and the Nationalist rule of Chinag-kai-Shek with corruption and wide disparities of incomes. John Thomson took pictures of China in the 1870's, now in the Wellcome collection and displayed in an exhibition at Heriot Watt University in Britain. Women and children in Guangdong, Canton and Beijing are shown in these pictures of China. Between 1872 and 1942 is a period of only 70 years with tumultuous events and huge changes in China. By 1944-1949 Communists controlled vast parts of China with Mao's forming of the People's Republic of China for the Chinese people, free of foreign influence, corruption, and opium trade of the British. And again 40 years later by 1989 China using a market economy to change China into a modern nation as advanced as Japan, Europe and America. For India the new People's Republic of China under Mao also brought the PLA army to the borders of India. In 1950 China invaded Tibet at Chamdo, and in 1951 annexed the country under a 15 Point Agreement making it a region of China. With that invasion India and China face each other for the first time in the Himalayas across a border stretching east to west for thousands of miles. A war in 1962 was followed by incursions across the border in 2020 in the Ladakh region. Both sides build infrastructure on either side of the Line of Control that stretches for 3500 kilometres. Most of the Indian people remain ignorant of the changes happening in China from the Manchus to the Communists. Most Chinese have little knowledge of the changes happening in India from British period to the post independence period under Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi , and further to the changes for modernization happening under Mr. Modi. Large populations of over 1 billion people facing each other but knowing little about each other in one of the strange situations in the world, and armies building infrastructure on either side of the line of control. ...

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This WSJ report sees Angela Merkel as leaving an international legacy of cooling relations with America. It says Angela Merkel turned down US president Biden's first call after his election as president because she was going to her cottage in the country that weekend. This report says after 4 terms Merkel is to be seen as dramatically increasing her country's economic dependence on China, pushing through a energy deal with Russia, joining France in challenging US political influence in Europe, rejecting American requests on economic policy and setting Berlin's openness to Chinese technology.  What happened with her youthful fascination with America during the years growing up in East Germany asks the WSJ? It also says of the Bush years of unregulated banking leading to the 2009 US banking crisis- that left her with a distaste for Anglo-Saxon banks and Wall Street lobbying. Of the Obama years it says Merkel found Obama unsteady, verbose, and sometimes meddling, with the spying on Merkel's phone also giving her a sense of disrespect to Germany. The result was that Merkel increasingly was fascinated by the Chinese experiment in development, visiting China 13 times while in office, studying Chinese history, politics and economics.  Merkel over this period met with the Dalai Lama and had questions about one party rule by CCP. Yet she became more and more resigned to Germany as a country of 80 million, not the EU and Europe as one group united in vision with a population of about 500 million, larger than America that could be a force for good in its own right. She said "we can be as hardworking, awesome,  as super as we like, but as a country of 80 million we won't be able to prevail if China ever decided that it no longer wants to have good relations with Germany." She ignored the experience of Sweden and Scandinavian countries in their relations with China. In saying this she ignored the potential of India and its neighbors in south-east Asia that make up about 2 billion people or about twice the population of China. She also seemed unaware of the role Woodrow Wilson, FDR, have played in realizing the democratic vision of the German revolutionaries of 1948 who failed to bring democratic government to Germany. And she had forgotten of the role Harry Truman, the commoner president of the US, who played a major role in establishing German democracy and its dignity during the Berlin Crisis after the blockade of Berlin by the Soviets in 1948. The mediocrity of presidents from Bush to Trump has bothered Merkel. Yet it may very well be that there is nothing mediocre about Mr. Biden and America's vision about its future as it grapples with the social and economic problems of the last three decades, as it has done before in its history and come through. ...

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Improving business conditions and lower unemployment are helping president Macron of France recover from a drop in popularity following the yellow vest protests. Macron tackled the crisis by changing his style of governance from top down to a listener style with regular town hall meetings and meetings with people who were critical of his government. Recent poll from Elabe shows 33% approve of the French leader compared to 23% in December 2018 at the height of the yellow vest protests. The yellow vest protests were from people who felt left out at the lower end of the wage scale who were protesting increasing inequality. Macron also offered minimum wage earners billions of dollars and shelved his economic agenda till he had a better grasp of the French public's opinions. The recovery in the economy means Macron has more flexibility in taking up priority items in the national agenda. The French pension system is fragmented with about 43 different plans, with some plans for transport workers offering generous retirement by age 52. The system is also likely to go into deficit of 10 billion euros in 2022. Brazil has run into major economic crisis from generous pension plans taking up a major part of the budget. Macron wants to increase the number of years people work before they collect pensions, not just increase the retirement age of 62. Most major European countries are at 65 years retirement age, the U.S. is at 66 years. Transport workers paralysed the nation's transport system including subways and bus systems recently to keep their generous benefits. Macron sees himself as promoting a national agenda similar to India for GST, and other countries tackling shortfall in pension systems by increasing the retirement age, even though in the short run people who benefit from the old system oppose it. By addressing grievances at the lower wage levels and tackling glaring issues in the way benefits such as pensions are distributed Macron can win enough support to offset the opposition of entrenched groups. Lawyers will see their pension contributions double for lower benefits and are opposing the pensions overhaul. For decades workers in different groups or sectors took to the streets in protest making any changes even if well thought out and in the national interest hard to make in France. By taking on entrenched groups tactically and first letting the groups express their sentiment before announcing top down changes, and by being an empathetic listener, Macron is showing that he has learned a lot from the past year without losing his sense of what is best for France. It just maybe that in the short run there is an offset gaining some support from neutral groups and losing support of entrenched groups. Yet in the long run when the dust settles there is more overall support particularly through empathetic listening and carefully planned flexible approach to making changes that improve the economy and reduce unemployment. ...

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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Yuka Hayashi gives an exceptional account of the rise of nationalism in Japan. This is especially true of the younger generation. As examples of the changing mood, he gives the popularity of Will magazine with circulation of 100,000 among younger readers, including large numbers of women. Other examples are the movie "Eternal Zero" remaining on the top of box office charts for 2 months, neto uyo or right wingers on the internet are popular, and bookstores display titles responding to China and S. Korea's criticism of Japan. Fringe candidates such as Toshio Tamogami have won 24% of the vote in Tokyo's gubernatorial race, with large proportion of younger voters. The younger generation is not accepting quietly the criticism of Japan's prewar record in the same way as the older generation with memories of the war. It sees itself free to respond to what it sees as China and S. Korea's constant criticism of Japan, even when Japan has apologized repeatedly for its aggressor role in Asia. Weekly magazines such as Bunshun and Shincho carry Japanese criticism of China and S. Korea with sensational headlines about lies. Abe's recent visit to the Yasukuni war shrine- the main object of S. Korean and Chinese criticism and America's concern expressed to Japan- is shown in an Asahi Shimbun poll recently to get favorable support from 60% of people in their 30's. Many of the 119 freshmen members of the Liberal Democratic Party of Mr. Abe also provide support, and some even see Japan needing to defend itself with or without the U.S. Is this level of nationalist sentiment similiar to the twenties and thirties, or to periods of tension in the 1990's and other post war periods? Only recently in 2010 the Democratic Party of Japan under a young prime minister Hatoyama and premier Naoto Kan, a civil rights activist, presented another side of Japan seeking closer ties with China- even distancing itself somewhat from the U.S. on the issue of bases in Okinawa. Naoto Kan also enjoyed a 60% level of popularity as premier Abe has in 2014. Which is the real Japan, or is it a reflection of fatigue among younger Japanese with always having to say you are sorry, as has happened to the younger generation in Germany. Hatoyama resembled Obama as a younger politician bringing a new optimism in Japan after years of LDP rule. Unfortunately president Obama distanced himself from Hatoyama on the base issue and failed to support Hatoyama at a time of tensions with N. Korea, leading to his fall in ratings and resignation. This may turn out to be a lost opportunity for the U.S. for building peaceful neighborly relations in Asia. In 2007 Chinese premier Wen Biao a speech to the Japanese parliament, the Diet, saying: "With history as a mirror it does not lead to long-lasting hate, it points to a better future." Japan's premier at the time? Shinzo Abe. What has changed? China's economy has doubled in size, and so have global Japanese corporations such as Toyota with advanced technologies, economic insecurity is unfounded in a globally linked interdependent economic system. ...

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Did a major U.S. chip maker Advance Micro Devices give away advanced computer chip technology in deals that saved the company as it faced a downturn in business. In Jun 2019 the U.S. Commerce Department issued an order that bars several Chinese companies from getting American technology. In the meantime Chinese versions of AMD chips are rolling off production lines in China, according to this report in the WSJ. It shows that AMD's partner in China, a military contractor, already used those chips to build what could be the world's fastest supercomputer. The AMD deals gave China access to state  of the art x86 chips made only by AMD and Intel Corp. Here the WSJ says AMD's CEO in October 2014 Lis Su, faced AMD's financial difficulties when she joined, with lack of cash, large debt, and declining revenues. Some analysts predicting bankruptcy protection. The deal for China's company Sugon to manufacture the x86 chips included $293 million in licensing fees, and $371 million for selling an 85% stake in its two factories in China and Malaysia to China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co, a state backed financier. The U.S defense Department tried but failed to get AMD to submit the deals to Cfius, the committee on foreign investment in the U.S. that has people from Treasury, Defense, Commerce, Justice and Energy. The Treasury Department ruled in AMD's favor in the closing months of the Obama administration. Defense Department officials say the deals were structured to sidestep U.S. regulations through two interlinked joint ventures. The first venture focusses on R&D and production controlled by AMD, the second on design and sale controlled by AMD's Chinese partner. The second company venture enables China to show that the resulting product was developed locally in China. In another development Sugon publicly announced that it was using the AMD x86 chip to advance China's chip technology advancement just as it had done for high speed trains. Making indigenous an imported technology, designing it at home, absorbing it, and then innovating to make China a leader. By mid 2017 this information reached General Spalding at the Trump White House. Lawmakers wanted to give Cfius committee new powers. By August 2018 Defense department submitted the Sugon deal for review a second time. After the Defense Department's deputy undersecretary for Research and Engineering criticized the whole deal publicly in front of industry executives, Commerce Department stepped in and on June 21 it asked for the unwinding of the deal with Sugon,  imposing new export restrictions to limit access to U.S. technologies. For AMD the cash infusion from China enabled it to get back from near bankruptcy. China gained x86 technology in its bid to make the fastest supercomputer, the U.S. faced with another loss in technological edge, and AMD shares jumped 80% to $30 per share recently. Brian Spegele, Kate O'Keefe, and Yang Jie in Beijing, covered this story for the Wall Street Journal. ...

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Surge in interest from foreign students for graduate study in the U.S. benefits about 200 graduate schools where about $24 billion is spent.

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Economists are callg it the adverse feedback loop, it is basically a situation where things start somewhere as with morgage securitization in the USA, and then spread in ahost of different ways through the economy in the USA and in ahost of other economies in interrelated fashion, compounding and worsening the original problem at every turn and every few months. This makes it harder to control and makes whatever steps that look aggressive at the time they are taken, become modest at the next turn in a few months. In February 2009, job losses of about 500,000 a month, and falling corporate profits create loan defaults, which hurt banks beyonfd the original mortgage problems. The banks falling stock prices along with loan defaults make it harder for them to raise capital and more reluctant to lend. All this cuts into spending on cars, factory equipment and other investment, feeding the cycle of job cuts and falling profits.

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In 2015 the new government of Antonio Costa took a U turn from austerity policies followed in return for a bailout from the European Union. This has helped Portugal achieve the highest growth in a decade coming back from a severe slump. Unemployment is cut in half with growth in the tourist industry, and investment in agriculture, construction, aerospace.  Traditional industries such as paper mills and textiles have invested in new technology resulting in a boom in exports. German companies Bosch, Mercedes Benz, and others have also invested in the country. Portugal has a good relationship with Germany and the European Union which has also helped attract foreign investment. Prime minister Antonio Costa says "too much austerity deepens a recession and leads to a vicious circle." Antonio Costa came to power in 2015 on promises to reverse cuts in income made by the previous government to reduce the deficit in exchange for a 78 billion euro international bailout. The government backed by left parties left out of government since 1974 with the collapse of the dictatorship, was able to increase public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions, over objections of the IMF and the German government. Incentives were given to small business in the form of tax incentives, development subsidies and funding. Budget balancing was achieved by cutting expenditure on infrastructure and other spending, cutting the budget deficit from 4.4% when Costa took office to 1%. A surplus is planned for 2020, ending a quarter century of budget deficits. ...

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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President Trump pushes forward with a deal with Mexico so that it can be signed before the new Mexican administration of Lopez Obrador takes over. This means leaving Canada out and having a separate deal with Canada later on. Mr. Trump sees negative connotations in the term NAFTA and would like to call it the "United States - Mexico Trade Agreement." Terms for Canada to join the agreement would be tougher and the pressure on Canada to strike a separate deal was increased with Mr. Trump saying there could be tariffs on imported Canadian made cars. Mexico has accepted revisions to NAFTA that make it harder for Mexico to challenge U.S. trade penalties. Mr. Trump's negotiating position is based on his conviction that the eagerness of other nations to sell in the U.S. market gives the U.S. a lot of clout. Mr. Trump also faces pressure from within the Republican Party to show results not just by imposing tariffs and playing hardball on trade but to come up with new trade deals. Steps taken by Mr. Trump were to impose tariffs of 25% on imports of aluminium and steel, and 25% tariffs on a list of imports from China including solar panels. President Trump hopes to get support from Democrats by including provisions that support trade unions in Mexico and higher wages in Mexico. The provisions also require higher wage labor in the U.S. to build the required U.S. content and are designed to support American jobs and wages in the auto industry.   ...