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Fisher and Taub of the NYT look at the populist politics in Europe and the U.S. following the French election first round. Trump won in the U.S. with the deep polarization of politics in the U.S.- leading to the Republican Party to decide to support him to avoid the result of four more years of an administration led by Democrats, and with the support of discontented voters in midwestern states with falling living standards. The situation in Europe is different as the mainstream parties have united in the past to block populist politicians with negative messages on immigration and an open economy. This happened in the Dutch election, by the co-opting of the nationalist message of populist politicians by mainstream parties and mainstream politicians, and is likely to continue in the French and German elections in 2017. Fisher and Taub point to another development that is happening- shifting the debate to ethnonationalism vs. open economies, which has happened with Brexit and the UK Independence Party. They cite the 2015 British elections in which UKIP won 13 percent of the vote, as having influenced prime minister Cameron to call for a referendum on Brexit, in a effort to revive the fortunes of the Conservative Party. In the end this resulted in the 52 percent vote supporting Brexit.  Another way of looking at the populist movement is that with Trump it called attention to trade and the way working class Americans were being marginalized especially in the industrial midwest. With this problem being addressed in a Trump administration and a reviving economy, the mainstream parties have an opportunity to reassert themselves. In Europe the AfD called attention to immigration issues, and the Merkel coalition government of CDU and SPD by making changes such as the deal with Turkey, and returning economic refugees, is able to assert the role of mainstream parties. In Britain the situation could be a result of a brash decision by a Conservative prime minister Cameron, in making a bad miscalculation, that has put Britain on a course that is likely not in its best interest. The Brexit referendum yes vote galvanized opinion by showing an endless stream of refugees in their advertising- a development following the opening of borders by Germany and Austria to address the plight of Syrian war refugees. That situation has passed and is unlikely to happen again as both the SPD and CDU parties in Germany have pointed out that this was a one time situation that they responded to following the exodus from Keleti rail station in Hungary under special circumstances. With this kind of perspective populist politics can be seen as reflecting other voices in a democracy, that are heard and responded to, yet keeping the sense of balance and openness necessary in today's global economy and societies. This is also the perception of Germany's outgoing popular president Gauck in his final address, pointing to the need to listen to other voices in a democracy, and the need for openness in a democracy, as well as democracies always in the process of Becoming and evolving to adapt to new situations in economy, society, and politics.     ...

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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IBM's researchers predict five developments in new technology in the next five years to 2016- precise language translation, precise voice recognition, storing of biometric information to replace passwords, conversion of energy from walking or water moving through pipes to power small devices, search engines and software that gives people the information they want. IBM has invested $15 billion in analytics companies and other fields in the last 5-7 years to accomplish some of these tasks. Bernie Meyerson, vice president of innovation at IBM, and a scientist in advanced microprocessor design and computer systems, issued the list. He says predicting this requires a deep knowledge of what happened before in the last five decades of technological advances. A novel application is conversion of the approximately 65 watts of energy generated from walking to power devices such as a phone. Precise and ubiquitous language translation also means ease of communication and a whole range of benefits in increasing communication between people in different parts of the world....

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Britain's banks still owe the government 100 billion pounds ($158 billion) from the bailouts that followed the 2008 financial crisis. The incentivizing of risk by pay structures and bonuses was seen as a big part of the problem. LIBOR manipulation abuses by banks are still on regulators minds. The Financial Conduct Authority and the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority, have set new rules to correct the problem. Earlier EU rules limited bonuses to 100% of salary. The new FCA rules require a 3 year period for traders and risk managers have to wait 5 years for performance awards in full. Top executives have a ten year wait to be certain claw back provisions do not go into effect. Andrey Bailey at the PRA says the rule is designed so "that people in positions of responsibility are rewarded for behaviour which fosters a culture of effective risk management and thus promotes the safety and soundness of individual institutions. "

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Capital inflows into banks in Cyprus in the form of demand deposits accelerated in 2008 after it appeared that the banking system in Ireland was having serious problems. About $40.7 billion of capital inflows went into Cyprus in the form of loans and demand deposits in 2008, 161% of the GDP of the country, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. Cyprus became the place for hot money from other countries because of the higher interest rates on euros and the lax banking laws.

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This article in Spanish calls on president Santos and former president Uribe to bridge their differences and take the peace process forward in Colombia. This follows the "no" vote in the referendum on the agreement reached in peace talks with FARC. Only 38% of the voters voted in the referendum and the vote was 50.2% against and 49.8% in favor of the peace agreement.

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Rappaport of the NYT asks how it is possible that the U.S. Treasury is critical of the EU Commission's ruling that Apple pay back $13 billion in taxes because of its low tax rate of .005% in Europe, when Treasury is strongly critical of tax avoidance. The negligible tax by Ireland, base of Apple operations, is seen as a state subsidy not available to competitors. It also, as the EU Commission says, does not correspond to economic reality because the revenues are mostly made outside Ireland. An arrangement that is basically a strategy of tax avoidance. Today the leading candidates for president, Trump and Clinton, the major parties, and Congress, all are critical of tax avoidance strategies which deprive Treasury of much needed revenues. Restoring upward mobility is a priority today and programs to provide tution free access to public colleges, healthcare access, and infrastructure development, require public funding. Then why is the U.S.Treasury critical of the EU ruling? It is because Treasury sees this as money that should be coming to Treasury not the EU. However Treasury has failed to make this clear. The Financial Accountability and Corporate Transparency Coalition's Clark Gascoigne, calls it very ironic. And other experts say the money would not be coming to the U.S. anyway unless a low tax rate induces Apple to repatriate profits to the U.S. One expert calls it hypocritical. Senator Schumer says he agrees with Paul Ryan that tax legislation for a low tax rate for repatriation of profits back to the U.S. should be the next step, so that an infrastructure fund can be setup. Senator Levin and transparency advocates sees the EU action as normal and to be expected, as the anti-establishment sentiment today comes from such dealings that create the impression that the system is rigged in favor of some corporations. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ describes the sharp increase in premiums under the Affordable Care Act of president Obama. The average premium increase is about 24.2% according to a Barclay's analysis, and as high as 43.9% in states such as Illinois. Bill Clinton calls it the craziest thing with small business affected, and some premiums doubling. Of the 17 million people in the individual market eight million buy without subsidies. One in five enrollees cannot qualify for subsidies. Democrats say subsidies are too small. Hillary Clinton has proposed to have a Medicare "buy-in" for people ages 55-65, and a "public option" government run plan. Republicans want to rewrite the law. But this depends on which party wins the Senate, with the election in Missouri giving Democrats an opportunity to maintain a Senate majority.

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IDC and Gartner reports show PC shipments in the third quarter 2012 declined by 8% from the prior year. This creates an uncertain outlook for sales of PC's powered by Windows 8 operating system enabling touchscreen technology.

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The IMF's Anoop Singh, director of the Asia-Pacific department, says the inflation in Asia and other countries is a result of wider structural economic shifts, not just a one-off result of the weather related food production declines. For this reason the response should be broader reforms to control inflation. Monetary policies alone cannot therefore do the job, more strengthening of currencies will be needed. Singh says some of the underlying demand in Asia is a result of a widening middle class, which implies the price pressures may not be temporary. The high growth rate in Asia has some good and bad aspects. The bad aspect is the quality of some of the growth and the sustainability of that kind of growth, says Singh.

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Malkiel says both sides in the investor debate are right. Those saying the CAPE ratio in the U.S. at 25, well above long run average of 15, are right to point this out. So are the others in the debate who point to the lack of alternatives for investors when the 10 year Treasury bond is at 2.4% and short term rates essentially at zero. Stock prices reflect the discounted present value of future cash flows from dividends and capital gains. This discount rate in 2014 has to take into acount the rate on low risk securities such as 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds and and a premium for riskiness of the stock market. Add three or four percentage points to this and one gets a low discount rate for future earnings that helps support reasoning for higher stock prices, says Malkiel. On the issue of low interest rates Malkiel's view is that they will be around for a long period because the unutilized productive labor capacity and low growth are likely to persist for a long period. Here he supports Fed chairwoman Yellen's view based on the U6 labor utilization. He also sees the long run equity returns from today's prices to be much lower than the 10% long run average. By accomodating both sides Malkiel supports a broadly diversified portfolio with adequate room for emerging markets and international stocks....

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This Journal editorial looks at the reason why Trusts and shadow banking became systemic risks, with trust products growing 7- fold in 2007-2012. It says money tends to find its way where its needed, and without junk bonds as in the U.S. the additional capital needs were being met by Trusts. The lid on interest rates meant individuals turned to the Trusts for higher rates. And the regulators failed to control the systemic risks posed by Trusts with their low transparency and regulatory control.