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Self-help aphorisms that are delivered with verve and conviction over and over from Kamala Harris come from Harris's mother Shyamala Gopalan.

"What can be, unburdened by what has been?" Harris herself is unburdened in this way, it appears as one sees her originality and style.

"A desire to honor the women who made history throughout history."

 

 

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The head of the CDU party who would become chancellor after Merkel, makes an emotional plea to the British people to change their mind and remain in the European Union. In an affectionate letter to The Times of London many leading figures from politics, industry and the arts in Germany made a plea that Britain remain in the EU "from the bottom of their hearts." A look at dozens of letters in response to this article in The Times shows that many Britons feel that Britain would have voted to remain if Germany and Merkel had given prime minister Cameron a better response during negotiations in 2016. Even chancellor Merkel warned Germans not to take an indifferent or complacent attitude to Britain's staying in the EU. The letter makes amends by saying there is an indissoluble bond between Britain and Germany because of the help given by Britain to rebuild Germany after the war. "Without your great nation this nation would not be what it is today, defined by freedom and prosperity," the letter says. It says "should Britain wish to leave the EU it will always have friends in Germany and Europe. But Britons should equally know that know choice is irreversible. Our door will always remain open: Europe is home."  Katarina Barley, Germany's Justice Minister whose father is British, says she supports a second referendum on Brexit. The letter is signed by Andrea Nahles, head of the Social Democrats, Annalena Baerbock head of the Greens party. Also signing it are the heads of Daimler, Airbus and the German Federation of Industry. Annegret Karrenbauer, head of the CDU says it is looking for constructive proposals from Britain, now that the deal put forward in the British parliament was defeated by a large margin. "We will not block the path to Britain remaining in the EU." The letter is significant in that it changes the whole tone of German leaders across the spectrum towards Britain- as critical to the idea of Europe, and the dawning in German minds that Europe would never be Europe without Britain, would never be Europe simply with France and Germany and the other nations. ...

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The story of how prime minister Naoto Kan's distrust of TEPCO, the electric power company operating the nuclear power plant at Fukushima, and of the bureaucrats in the government, played out in the first days of the nuclear crisis in 2011. Kan bypassed the crisis management system set up for just such a situation because of a deep mistrust of the collusion between industry and bureaucrats. Instead he relied on a close group of advisors, who felt that the company was not sharing all the information but could do little about it. This led to lack of direction in the crisis from the highest levels of government, including a lack of response to U.S. offers of support and assistance with nuclear experts and technology.

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Toyota's views on a car run by batteries like the Volt GM has planned. It will take the time to work on this, at this time it sees a hybrid as the best option for alternate busts of power by both the electric and the gasoline power. A battery that would fill up the trunk of a car would be needed for a car to run only on electric power for 40 miles. He heads engine development and fuel cell engineering for Toyota. This is the existing technology but Toyota will take the needed time to develop the technology of lithium ion batteries to power vehicles, doing this step by step.

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The most recent U.S Congressional Budget Office projections make assumptions of an higher U.S. unemployment rate for the next 10 years. This worsens the outlook for the U.S. deficit. The CBO projections assume unemployment of 8.5% by the end of 2012, remaining over 8% till 2014. The deficit for fiscal 2012 is projected to be $973 billion, or 6.2% of GDP. This is down from $1.3 trillion, or 8.5% of GDP in the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2011, after spending cuts. Over the coming ten years CBO projects cumulative deficits of $8.5 trillion and U.S. debt at 82% of GDP in 2021, under a scenario where Congress renews the Bush tax cuts and payroll tax cuts, and is unable to reduce fees paid to doctors under Medicare. The gap between revenue and spending is widening- revenues are at 15.3% of GDP in 2011 and spending is 23.8% of GDP.

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The tax plan offered by Jeb Bush in September 2014 is based on simplifying the tax code to three rates, lowering the corporate tax rate to stimulate business investment and growth. It will pay for this by limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income, removing state and local tax deductions, by generating higher growth of estimated 0.5% per year which translates into higher tax revenues, and by increasing the deficit by $1.2 trillion. In the last tax debate economists such as Martin Feldstein and other experts proposed removing or limiting the itemized deductions. Simplifying the code and lowering corporate tax rates has been favored as a method to jumpstart growth by many experts, but was not taken up during the deep recession following the 2008-2009 financial crisis when the stimulus added to the deficit. The 3 tax rates changes the current 7 brackets to 10 percent, 25 percent and 28%, with the coporate tax rate lowered to 20%. The plan removes the alternative minimum tax, the estate tax, marraige penalty tax, leaves charitable deductions as now. To help the people at the lower end in incomes and the middle class- the standard deduction is doubled, the earned income tax credit expanded. Companies would be allowed to deduct capital investments, and there would be a gradual phase out of taxation on income American companies earn overseas. Hedge funds will not have access to a loophole called "carried interest." The plan comes as the American economy is in recovery mode, making it more likely that increased growth would generate extra tax revenues....

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Ricard Andersson was a student at the adult education college in Orebore, a medieval city of 155,000 people in Sweden, and unemployed for 10 years says this report in The Times of London. It was the worst attack in the country's history.

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How changes in retail with Wal-Mart and technology with Amazon online sales killed a toy brand. Employees fared poorly as the business took on debt under private equity and was finally liquidated.

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China's premier, Wen Jiabao, opened the National People's Congress, annual meeting of the Chinese parliament, by saying that China had lowered its growth rate to 7.5% from 8%. GDP growth for 2011 was 9.2%. Wen set an inflation target of 4%. The CPI index increased by 5.4% in 2011. Wen set 14% growth target for M2, China's broadest measure of money supply.

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Fiat chief Marchionne on a visit to Detroit to do due diligence on its deal with Chrysler, said that no one was lining up to take the deal away from Fiat. He made it clear that the deal, in which for providing its technology in small cars to Chrysler it would get a 35% stake in Chrysler, has to stand on its own two legs. For another $25 million Fiat could raise its stake to 55%. Its only other investment would be in the plant costs for building theses small cars in the USA. Fiat will not use USA government money for Fiat's operations, and only take money from Chrysler after the government is repaid, he said. For the deal to go through everyone has to make concessions, says Marchionne. The logic of the deal may rest on US government help and labor and other stakeholders concessions. In a year Fiat could be importing cars into the USA and in 30 months Fiat could be making cars in the USA.

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The close ties developed in the postwar years between Japan and Boeing. Japanese suppliers supplied 16% of the 767 model in 1982, growing to 21% in 1995. By 2011 with the 787 Dreamliner Japan's role had increased to 35%. ANA and JAL almost exclusively use Boeing planes, shutting out Airbus from the Japanese market. New upstart airlines are beginning to order from Airbus. The Japanese government also supports suppliers of Boeing in Japan. Employment is also a consideration as 43% of employment in Japan's aviation industry is linked to Boeing. The battery on the Dreamliner 787 is supplied by Kyoto based GS Yuasa Corp., and Kanto Aircraft Instrument Company near Tokyo makes the circuit board that runs the battery. Battery related fires have led to grounding of 17 Dreamliners operated by ANA and 7 Dreamliners of JAL airlines in Japan. All Nippon Airways is the first and largest operator of the new Dreamliner aircraft. So tight is the relationship that Airbus has in total about 44 planes flying in Japan, with newer airlines such as Skymark expected to use the new Airbus A380 superjumbo aircraft in 2014. ANA and JAL typically do not bargain hard on pricing with Boeing because this supports Japanese manufacturers. ANA managers say it was involved in the design of the jet, including the use of a durable Japan made paint. In the 1990's Boeing studied Japanese manufacturing methods to improve work on its assembly lines, which goes on till today....

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What this Editorial board opinion in the Indian Express is saying is that India should concentrate its efforts on modernizing its economy on a scale that is similar or surpasses that of China because of its access to the latest technologies. Just as China capitalized on the opportunity presented by its entry in the World Trade Organization in 2001, through an economy wide effort to build a manufacturing and export logistics base. India is presented with the opportunity of building its own manufacturing and export logistics base as supply chains are being redesigned in 2023. This requires a longer term plan with clear thinking and concentrated effort with the entire resources of the nation. What looks like a small or gradual shift in supply chain with the US and EU adding India and Vietnam to their Chinese manufacturing base is going to change with every change in world events, as the US concentration of manufacturing in China becomes a situation that is impossible to to maintain. The only logical way for the US and following the US the EU to create a proper balance in its political relationship with China is to change fully its lopsided concentration of manufacturing in China. Biden is only making the initial moves, the EU is only waking up to the need to make its own changes to reduce this concentration. How much distance does the US need to cover to reduce its concentration in China? By a large amount because the shift of manufacturing was excessive and ill advised done as companies in the US raced in a competition to shift outside over 2 decades and simply outdid themselves and performed a disservice to the workers and families of America whom they served. Just for the US to get workers and families to benefit from return of good manufacturing jobs to the US and restore its manufacturing base that has shriveled, it will have to be a massive enterprise, where day by day it becomes more evident that more and more needs to be and accomplished in an accelerated way. What this also means where appropriate to leave a progressively year after a year larger base in India, and also Vietnam, much larger than is envisaged today. This situation is even more acutely felt in Japan which to bring a proper balance in its political relationship with China needs to even more urgently reduce its concentration of manufacturing in China. It must be the task of the Modi government to have a clear view of the road ahead- build the needed logistical base for exports using the latest technologies and set higher and higher targets for manufacturing.  If you look at the map of Asia this is the Global South- India is 60-70% of the Global South with its population of 1.4 billion people mostly young with aspirations for a modern economy like that of the US and Germany. Add to that Indonesia and Vietnam, and other nations already in the redesigned supply chain in 2023 and you have 2 billion people in Asia. Concentrate on this for the next 2 decades for a complete transformation of India, that is what the younger generation demands of its government. ...

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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It is not a story that most people grasp or understand- the long term effects of the US immigration surge of 2023 and its source mostly from Venezuela. The  US Congressional Budget Office says labor force in 2033 ten years from now will be larger by 5.2 million people and younger as a result of the immigration surge in 2023 from about 1 million immigrants each year in the 2010's to 3.3 million. About 2.5 million crossed the southwestern border in 2023. Much of it the result of the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and its middle and upper classes leaving the country. This was worsened by the US sanctions on the Maduro government including under president Trump, say experts in an adjoining NYT article on the 7 million people who left Venezuela to go to Colombia, Peru, Ecuador and Chile since 2012, then making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Something that could have happened under a Republican president if the US Congress could not reach bipartisan agreement on correcting asylum and parole policy. As a result of this surge US Gross Domestic Product  in 2033 will be 3% larger. When the large Asian economies are seeing a aging workforce, Japan for the last decade and China now following Japan, the US labor force will be younger than it would be without this unusual surge in immigration of the last 2 years. The federal deficit will be smaller at 6.4% instead of 7.3% in 2033 as immigrants will pay taxes on income. Another aspect of this larger infusion of immigrants is that after the pandemic shut down immigration entirely there were severe shortages in the hospitality and restaurant, construction, healthcare industries. And with the trillions of dollars in investment that the Biden administration is making with more factories - this will absorb most of the immigrant surge by 2033. With some positive effects in the competition with rising Asian economies China and India. Particularly consider with the younger demographic India of 1.4 billion people. It will mean more factories can be built in the US and there will be workers for these factories in the US at wages that keep the US economy competitive years from now in 2033. This is a sobering aspect of the current situation viewed from what will be seen by America's younger generation. And under the bipartisan compromise in Congress correcting asylum and parole policy that was shut down by the former president, Republican senators understood very well that the immigration surge of 2023 would have some constructive effects for the long term, while its effects on the short term would be mitigated by Biden's commitment to close the border in 2024. This did not happen, yet the future for America's younger generation is bright under the Biden plan for massive investment in manufacturing and jobs in the US, and with the millions of immigrants needed to fill the jobs that investment will create by 2033. It will make America with a younger work force than Europe or China, only India having a younger workforce in 2033. ...

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On the way the majority of people in China's rural areas live, and how their lives have worsened with the market system. A lack of democracy makes it harder for them to get a fair allocation of resources. Lack of press freedoms and no constraints on authorites at the provincial and county levels makes the situation even worse.The support systems for health, education have collapsed in the rural areas. Even though life was drab in the Maoist period, basics such as health care and education were free or nearly free. Efforts are to throw more money at the problem are being made. The government has allocated an higher amount of 340 billion yuan or $42 billion for agricultural development and rural services. But as the Economist points out the money is only about an additional $7 per person for the 800 million in the countryside. A large part of the problem is that the lower levels of the government are run incompetently. The lack of democracy means that these officials are not accountable to the people they govern. No effort has been made to make these officials accountable by having elections at the township, county and provincial level. The Communist party is placing all its hopes of keeping a monopoly of power on its ability to spend and manage its way. The Economist's prediction is that this will fail because only democracy can bring the kind of accountability that is needed in the rural areas. ...

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BP's difficulties in the deal with Rosneft. In mid-January 2011 BP signed a deal with Rosneft with each company investing in the other through a stock swap of 5% of BP and 9.8% of Rosneft. They also agreed to jointly explore oil fields in the Russian Arctic. This sidelines BP's former partners in the TNK-BP venture. Robert Dudley, who headed the Russian operations of BP, is now CEO of the company. From 2003 to 2008, Dudley headed the TNK-BP joint venture. BP's partners in that venture, known as the AAR group of oligarchs, have sued BP over the BP-Rosneft deal. An arbitration tribunal in Sweden ruled that the Rosneft venture violates a shareholder agreement BP has in the TNK-BP venture. BP was under the impression that support from Igor Sechin, deputy prime minister and head of Rosneft, would ensure there would be no litgation by AAR, but this has not happened. It shows the uncertainties in Russian politics. Russian President Medvedev has asked political leaders to give up corporate positions, which would mean Sechin would have to give up his position in Rosneft. BP continues to benefit from access to new resources in Russia even with these difficulties. BP contributed $6 billon in cash in 2003 to the TNK-BP joint venture. BP has made $14.3 billion in dividends since 2003 on this investment and holds 50% of the assets in that venture. ...

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Research by Chief Marketing Officer Farley's research team found that Americans associate Ford with "on sale", "American" and of being"powerful", attributes that don't help Ford much in being loved by car buyers. What Farley wants car buyers to see in Ford is "Quality, Green, Safe and Smart." And that is where Ford is headed in its marketing campaign. Farley is from Toyota and knows a thing or two about saying the same thing that the dealers are saying. All of Ford advertising will be coordinated so dealers and Ford say the same thing. The new advertising campaign will focus on the line "Ford. Drive One" a line that Mullaly likes because he likes to say at every opportunity "Have you Driven a Ford Lately," another of the older Ford lines. Its about getting buyers to look at Ford. The new campaign was presented to the Board recently by Farley and takes Ford in a new direction It makes sense as it made sense for Toyota, to have a clear message, a clear idea about what you stand for and what people to think of you, and to say it with one voice whether dealers, or Ford the company in Dearborn, Michigan, or other Ford related organization. The 4000 Ford dealers will now have hands on discussions with Dearborn about what they are seeing and what should go into the advertising and monitor the progress as this effort which may go on for several years takes place....

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New figures on campaign financing show the that from Oct 15 onwards the Obama campaign spent $161.5 million, the McCain campaign spent $75 million. Obama outspending McCain 2 to 1. By the end of the campaign Obama had raised $750 million. To get a sense of these numbers. This was three times what President Bush had raised, the previous record. Obama would have received $84 million in public financing after the Democratic party's national convention, and had to stop raising money at that point. This is what McCain did. Starting in September Obama spent $380 million and McCain $195 million. By mid October 2008, the Obama campaign raised $300 million in contributions of $200 or less -at which point donor identity's need not be revealed- from 4 million donors, according to Campaign Finance Institute. It also raised $300 million in contributions of $1000 or more for the period before mid-October. What this means is the figures have far outstripped what was set aside by campaign finance laws and the party with the bigger fundraising machine has little incentive to work for updating the laws. It also means good candidates who do not want to do this much fund raising or who are not good fund raisers will not participate in elections that determint the direction of the country, depriving the country of such service. It also means government policy is likely to be distorted sometimes with serious consequences by donors, bundlers and lobbyists. ...

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Mary Schapiro, head of the U.S. S.E.C., joins Promontory Financial, a consulting firm set up by former Comptroller of the Currency managers to act as a "bank doctor" for banks that expect to face regulatory scrutiny from government regulatory agencies. In one settlement for mortgage debt which banks settled for $9.3 billion, Promontory Financial was paid $2 billion, according to this WSJ report.

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Jane Perlez of the NYT describes the efforts of China to draw the new South Korean president Moon Jae-in away from close defense ties with the U.S. Moon Jae-In won the South Korean election in 2017 and favors better relations with China and North Korea. China's goal is to reduce deployment of the Thaad missile defense system the U.S. has installed in South Korea, which is seen as reducing China's nuclear deterrance because the system also protects against missiles launched from China. Economic ties are also affected in the dispute as China has promoted a boycott of South Korean cars, televisions and other products, and fewer Chinese now visit South Korea. 

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The step by step process Mr. Obama used to arrive at his decision to send 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The use of charts showing the buildup at one of the last meetings, and how President Obama expressed frustration at the length of time the troops would be there, and then says "I want this curve pushed to the left," pointing to the bell curve showing buildup and withdrawal after some years. This says Baker may be the pivotal moment for the expansion of the war. What he meant was something like a fast buildup and rapid draw down. He asks Petraeus how fast the Iraq buildup for the surge took place, and Petraeus says 6 months. The option being discussed was Option 2A carefully prepared to get a30,000 troop addition approved by Defense Secretary Gates and presented to Mr Obama on November 11, 2009. What Obama said at that point was according to NYT reporter Baker's sources is - "What I'm looking for is a surge, this has to be a surge." Gates was the seasoned person in saying the right things at just the right time and not sooner in these negotiations. The process had seen alot of back and forth swings, leaks including the McChrystal report leak and the Ambassador Eikenberry report leak, and the President preferring to keep his thoughts to himself and using University of Chicago law school style analytical thinking to wade through the swamp of issues in this place called Afghanistan. With that Gates shows how that curve can be moved up and gets the President to allow for conditions at the time to be the factor for withdrawal conditions. In effect the President's analytical thinking an approaches good for a law class in the University of Chicago and potentially very unlikely to allow for agrasp of the muddied details and complexities of social, political and historical type in Afghanistan, were being applied to a crucial mind decision that would have a mind boggling impact. Had Gates served the country well? Had Mr Obama served the country well with these analytics, when a more intuitive decision based on understanding of all the conditions on the ground by talking to different people who had first hand experience in Afghnistan and Pakistan- see the links here to first hand reports- would have accomodated the peculiarities of the Afghan situation better than some charts and numbers? Speaker Pelosi and Congressman Obey had indicated lack of support among Democrats. The Budget Office had provided a cost estimate of 1 trillion dollars for 10 years. None of this appeared to matter in the final decision. NATO would supply the additional troops to get the number closer to 40,000. Gates had been the most seasoned player through years of negotiating with Congress, and he helped formulate Option 2A for 30,000. The President makes one final Professorial comment at the final meeting on November 29, 2009, after announcing his decision to support Option 2A, -"but if you don't agree with me say so now" and repeats saying "tell me now." Gates signals to Vice President Biden who inquires whether this is a Presidential order that it is one. Mullen and Petraeus say "fully support." America had by using charts numbers and law school analytical processes turned the complexities of Afghnistan into something else, but these analytics had still to be played out in the vast mountainous spaces of Afghanistan and in the homes and workplaces of America in 2010 and beyond. It is hard not to sense that something serious was lost that day. ...