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Britain has missed 400 billion pounds of growth as a result of Conservative governments spending cuts since 2010, says this TUC report cited in The Guardian. The Institute of Fiscal Studies and other reports also support this- that the income from work has fallen behind the income from owning assets in Britain- benefitting only the top 10% of households, hurting the rest and and creating a socially split and fragmented society. This has hurt Britain's economy. If the pre 1979 growth rate was maintained Britain's GDP would be 2 trillion pounds higher says this report citing the TUC. It has not improved the public finances as weaker growth means lower revenues, has weakened growth of the whole economic potential of the economy. At fault are institutions the IMF and the OECD and others that created a culture of misinformation that government spending gives only a modest spurt to growth so that austerity cuts can be prolonged with little impact on GDP. These institutions have later revised their analyses but the cultural impact of such perceptions has led to austerity cuts being accepted way of operating without thinking of the damage being done to the economy and to society. US president Biden has moved firmly to make the kind of targeted investments in infrastructure and to cut inflation that yield results and create a sense of optimism for the country. ...

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British fashion designer Anya Hindmarch tells NYT reporter Aimee Farrell how to de-clutter one's life- how to organize everything from the closet to the mailbox so that it becomes easy to live. She says about cleaning up her email box every day- a clean box is a clean head. Amazon delivery for example goes into its own folder, and one can pull up the folders when needed. She separates the clothes she uses frequently from clothes she will use in 6 months, and puts away stuff she may never use in years. Separating whats important from the less important is basic to her method.  She says her best ideas come from a clean table. A scrambled bunch of post-it notes are out.  Methods she uses are digitizing photos into a small key chip, labeling everything, having pre-packaged kits she can take when needed in a hurry as for a trip. She uses a page to put down a list of what needs to be done, and a separate list if some things need to be done urgently in a few hours, putting things in a category such as calls to make, location specific such as things to do at the desk or outside. At the end of the day she also sits down to write in a diary note to reflect on what she has done during the day. ...

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NATO was formed in the days of the Truman administration on 25th July 1949, following the Berlin Blockade, the coup in Czechoslovakia by Soviets, and the efforts to set up pro soviet governments in Turkey and Greece. It accomplished its purpose by pushing back against the Soviet effort securing democracy in Greece and Turkey in the 1950's. Much of this was achieved under Heads of NATO from the US- Gen. Eisenhower, Gen. Ridgway, Gen. Guenther and Gern Norstad proteges of Ike all from West Point by 1964, when Brezhnev was new head of Soviet Union and by 1991 Warsaw Pact of Soviets setup in 1955 was dissolved yet NATO was not. The US interests shifted to Asia - Gen MacArthur leading a UN effort in Korea and the US leading its own effort in Vietnam in the 1960's. The Soviet threat actually receded after 1964 when Brezhnev became head of Soviet Union till 1982. During that period in the 1970's till today the face of NATO as today was from a series of heads of governments of Dutch Stikker in 1970's or other small European states such as Norway Stoltenberg and Rutte Netherlands again in 2025. It could be said that none of these leaders  of small EU countries represented US interests- or even European interests- a point the DJT administration is trying to make. It hurt the US in Venezuela as Russia propped up a regime which led to millions of refugees entering the US illegally. And it hurt Europe as Russia propped up the Syrian regime with millions of refugees entering Germany and destabilizing its political structure. Going back if a new defense institution was set up to replace NATO by the Europeans in 1970's this would have been the right step which would have not led to Russia propping up regimes in the Americas or the Middle East. A goal that is being discussed with Russia by the DJT administration to refocus American efforts in a new direction and pause not just the Ukraine war but also put the US  and Russia in a new direction with the new competition from 3 billion people in China and India. WSJ Editorial Board takes the British position on the Ukraine peace proposals with centuries old skeptical attitude on Russia's intentions. The US government position put forward by DJT is that there are constructive discussions with Russia, and the need to settle the underlying issues behind the conflict. This includes NATO's future. NATO setup in 1949 for Soviets,  on the borders of Russia in 2025 after the end of the Cold War when its rival the Warsaw Pact set up in 1955 of the Soviets was disbanded in 1991. The British position comes from centuries of conflict in Europe and its interests in protecting its Empire till the 1950's remaining unchanged, and cannot reflect American interests in the 21st century as its economy competes with China and India and the EU, and seeks to do this by keeping former colonial powers out of the Americas including Russia, and China.   ...

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Eduardo Porter describes the choices facing Germany as EU leaders of most EU countries call for deposit insurance, European banking regulation, and eurobonds.

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In a Nov. 8 S&P report S&P's estimate for net government debt to GDP ratio for 2013 is over 80%. What S&P will look for in the debt negotiations is for the parties to produce an agreement that will stick and for the debt to GDP ratio to stabilize at close to current levels. Less important is the Jan. 1 deadline for S&P and Moody's according to executives at the credit ratings firms and more important real agreement that lasts.

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Miyuki Hatoyama describes the problems Japanese women face working in government and business with a lack of adequate child care, and the attitudes in Japanese society limiting the role women can play outside of the home. This makes it harder for women to contribute to society with their own creativity, talent and efforts, and pursue careers. Her husband was elected DPJ party's head and prime minister of Japan in 2009. The couple have a very natural way of meeting people and blending together with other people, bringing new ways in a traditional culture.

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The political warfare between the two parties Republicans and Democrats complicates help to the automakers being released from the TARP $700 billion by Bush in the months before January transfer to the President elect. Bush is purported to want the Democrats to support the Columbia trade agreement which Obama vigorously opposes on the grounds of violence against union workers in Columbia. Complicating the situation further Obama and environmentalists including Al Gore wnat to see the auto industry help in the light of promoting energy conservation and environmental goals, whereas the industry and the unions and their Michigan supporters like Rep. Dingell and others want to see the aid given without any strings attached. This leaves the danger that both sides may be caught in a situation they could not control, the Bush people with a outgoing President who is struggling to preserve something of his legacy amid dismal ratings, and the Obama people without the experience to handle a situation such as this which is getting increasingly complicated. See the editorial pages of the WSJ on November 10 which said government help should only be given if the current management and board are replaced with new management and board, suggesting government receivership for GM. The management and board of GM which have hung onto their jobs through thick and thin are not likely to volunteer for a change. And the public perception is that the automakers management is responsible for this mess having dragged their feet all the way and used lobbyists to delay having to make the fuel efficient automobiles customers want. And another intractable factor that remains in the background is the collapsing sales of automakers which if it continues would require even bigger amount of government aid to keep operations running and pay workers way beyond the $50 billion that is being discussed, almost unrestricted help. In the meantime the Center for Automotive Research athink tank based in Michigan says about 3 million jobs depend directly of indirectly on the automotive industry and suppliers and services and goods providers to autoworkers. At the rate things are going a further deterioration in the conditions of the industry and further sales losses look likely, and GM's share price has already been placed at zero value by auto analysts at Deutsche Bank. It may well turn out that no one is in control and as the situation lurches from crisis to crisis, both the outgoing and incoming administration might find events happening in rapid fire mode one after another may take GM' s share price down close to zero before any solutions are found to an impasse and action taken. This happened with Lehman Brothers where in the end the failure of Fuld to take decisive and correct action early led to a collapse which the Fed and Treasury let happen. The danger to the economy is that when the story of these events is written years hence it may be recorded that very liitle action was taken to prevent foreclosures and action taken was not taken early or decisively. And individuals like Fuld at Lehman in October and Waggoner at GM in November failed to provide the leadership in the months and years leading into the crisis, leading to its steep and worsening nature on the credit front and on the auto front. ...

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Auto parts makers employ 600,000 workers concentrated in 7 states and also supply foreign carmakers in the USA. They are asking for access to TARP or other government money as they are feeling the effects of this downturn. Carmakers are using the stuy by the Center for Automotive Research that says 3 million jobs will be affected. However bankruptcy law allows the carmakers to continue to operate, and gives the automakers an opportunity to renegotiate all labor contracts on the basis of the new realities in the American economy, as demand collapses and credit is tight and companies need rescue money from the government. Douglas Baird, a Professor at the University of Chicago Law School who specializes in bankruptcy law says that this 3 million figure is laughable as modern bankruptcy law is designed to protect against that, in effect suggesting that companies like the airlines that are operating in bankruptcy can continue to operate as before but do so with serious restructuring.

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The GM management does not get it , the GM spokesman does not get it, the workers don't get it, says Andrew Sorkin from what he hears them say. GM faces many problems, too many dealerships, too many models and brands, and union benefits and retiree benefits from another world of post 50's economic expansion, that can only be solved by a government sponsored bankruptcy or GSB. GSB is a necessary part of the solution as chapter 11 makes solutions possible without dealerships suing as state laws protect dealerships, unions striking and management insisting on the status quo. In all he sees the 35 plants of GM and Chrysler cut in half, only the Chevrolet , Cadillac and Buick and Jeep brands retained and Dodge Ram pickups merged with Chevrolet, in a GM-Chrysler merger. He cites Deutsche Bank's estimates that reducing the brands to the 3 mentioned for GM would reduce costs by $5 billion annually and reducing the dealerships by another $4 billion. Buick would be retained because its a huge seller in China. The government would setup a warranty insurance fund to insure the warranties of all GM and Chrysler vehicles bought while they are in Chapter 11. And some of the rescue money would go into retraining and helping promote new industry....

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Forecasts show global oil output exceeding demand by 630,000 barrels a day for the fourth quarter of 2012. This is partly the result of extra oil supplies coming in from Saudi Arabia to counter the situation with Iran at the same time as oil demand is slowing with the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China. Prices of crude declined to $85.73 a barrel on the Nymex, and $107.85 for Brent crude on the ICE Futures Exchange on Oct. 24, 2012. Goldman Sachs cut the 2013 price forecast for Brent crude to $110 a barrel from $130. Earlier the QE III monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve had rallied oil prices because of a weakening of the dollar.

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The new oil law allowing foreign oil companies to compete with Pemex passes the Senate in Mexico and now goes to the lower house. The legislation removes the 4 oil worker union's representatives from the 15 person Board of Pemex. The oil law now leaves only a 10 member board- five appointed by the government and five independent members approved by the Senate. Because past opening of investment by the private sector in state owned railways and telecom sectors has led to wealth passing into the hands of a few business owners and worsening competitiveness, there is concern in Mexico about how this law will be implemented so that it benefits Mexico and Mexicans through foreign investment in the oil industry. Leftist parties are pushing a bill in the lower house to allow a referendum on the oil law by 2015 if 1.6 million signatures are collected. Oil experts point to foreign investment in the Mexican oil industry as further enhancing the prospects of North American oil production in comparison to the position of Middle East oil producers, because of Mexico's large shale oil and gas reserves and the prospects for new exploration in deep waters. ...

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How Toyota's labor cost advantage is disappearing. By late 2009 Toyota's Georgetown Kentucky plant, 23 years old, where most workers are at the top of the pay scale could be the highest labor cost auto factory in the USA. A large number of Toyota workers are at the top wage of $25 an hour. Detroit's 4 year deal with the UAW gives them a 2 tier wage contract where lower paid workers earn only $26 an hour including benefits according to the Center for Automotive Research. At GM in 2011 its estimated the number of workers will be down by 6500 to 68000 workers, and one third of them earning the lower wage. How is Toyota responding? New hires will take 5 years not 3 to get to the top wage. And starting pay at a plant in Mississippi will be lower than the traditional $16. Its also cutting health care costs by setting up medical centers on site as at its San Antonio factory.

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Cyclicality and capital intensity in the auto industry keep Ford's share price down.

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A critical part of the Affordable Care Act is the setup of marketplaces or exchanges to let people without insurance buy individual health plans. Some states setup their own exchanges, and some states let the federal government step in and run them. To help the lower middle class and poor the Act provides health subsidies to buy insurance in the exchanges, and 85% of customers in the exchanges qualify for this benefit. The U.S. Supreme Court voted 6-3 in 2015, compared to a tight vote in 2012 on the Affordable Care Act, to maintain the health subsidies. Justice Roberts wrote the majority opinion, saying "Congress passed the Affordable Care Act to improve health insurance markets, not destroy them." Justice Scalia dissented calling it "interpretive jiggery-pokery." Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito Jr. dissented. Voting in favor were Justices Anthony Kennedy, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Justice Kennedy dissented in the 2000 case. The challengers petition to the courts was based on a reading of phrases in the Affordable Act which had not occurred to the writers of the law. The reading suggests only people enrolled in state setup exchanges are eligible for subsidies. If the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs the 6.4 million Americans who are enrolled in the federal exchanges would lose the subsidies provided under the law and lose health insurance. And the economic foundations of the Affordable Act would be undermined with insurance companies required to provide insurance to all regardless of pre-existing conditions and subsidies removed, leaving the companies with sicker pool of customers resulting in destabilizing the exchanges and higher premiums. The court ruled in favor of an interpretation that is compatible with the whole law and the intentions of the statute to help the middle class and the poor buy health insurance. The chaos in the insurance markets that would result in going with the plaintiffs because of a careless writing of a phrase, was uppermost in the majority's mind. Chief Justice Roberts emphasized this, saying- "The statutory scheme compels us to reject petitioners' interpretation, because it would destabilize the individual insurance market in any state with a federal exchange and likely create the very 'death spirals' that Congress designed the act to avoid." This case originated with 4 plaintiffs from Virginia who challenged the IRS regulation that said subsidies were allowed regardless of whether the exchanges were run by the state or the federal government, arguing that this was at odds with the particular phrase in the law that was ambiguous about federal exchanges eligibility for health subsidies. Judge Roger Gregory of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virgina, ruled that the phrase was indeed ambiguous, but the IRS was owed deference in its opinion. Chief Justice Roberts made it clear that this was not a case for the IRS, saying "it is instead our task to determine the correct reading." ...